COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
(Fondation pour la recherche stratégique) Le secteur des entreprises de services de sécurité et de défense (ESSD) a connu une nette expansion ces dernières décennies, en particulier sur le marché africain. La multiplication des crises sécuritaires sur le continent (augmentation de la menace terroriste et des conflits intercommunautaires, guerres civiles ou conflits insurrectionnels) alliée aux difficultés de certains gouvernements africains à y faire face a justifié le recours croissant aux ESSD. Outre les entreprises locales, de nombreuses ESSD étrangères sont implantées sur le continent, avec des missions allant de la protection de ressortissants au soutien d’opérations menées par les forces armées locales. Parmi ces entreprises, les sociétés russes et chinoises apparaissent particulièrement actives en Afrique. Depuis les années 2000, la Chine et la Russie se sont affirmées comme des acteurs de premier plan en matière de sécurité internationale et, à ce titre, ont considérablement développé leur influence sur le continent, notamment via les ESSD
Australia
(Eric Lies – ASPI The Strategist) No country is better positioned to capitalise on the growing push into the final frontier of space than Australia. Becoming the premier destination for commercial space launch would not only provide ample economic growth but would bolster national security resilience. The government should leverage its geography as well as the burgeoning fields of additive manufacturing and artificial intelligence to encourage commercial space operations and develop strategic depth.
Australia – NATO
(Jane Hardy – Lowy The Interpreter) Prime Minister Albanese will not attend the NATO Summit this week in Washington. Focused on domestic political issues, Albanese has been criticised for neglecting geopolitics at a critical juncture for NATO. This is a moment when attempts to broker peace in Ukraine are failing. When Russia is doubling down on its brutal war.
The NATO summit in Washington will be critical to Australia’s interests | Lowy Institute
Denmark – NATO
(Centre for Military Studies) Russia’s annexation of Crimea and subsequent invasion of Ukraine has moved effective deterrence high on NATO’s priority list. At the Vilnius Summit in 2023, NATO countries agreed on a New Force Model, which includes a much higher number of military units to be ready to move in the event of an operation or crisis. In addition, the enablement agenda is about being able to move NATO troops and military equipment across Europe. This places new demands on member states, including Denmark, which now faces a number of physical, organisational and legal challenges in meeting the new NATO commitments. Allies must also be able to house and provide civilian and military assistance to Allied troops travelling through or staying longer in the country. The new CMS report “Denmark as a transit country in NATO”, authored by military analyst Alexander Høgsberg Tetzlaff, sheds light on the challenges that Danish decision-makers and authorities face in light of NATO’s enablement agenda, which will only increase in importance over the coming years.
New CMS Report: Denmark as a transit country in NATO – University of Copenhagen (ku.dk)
India
(Radhey Tambi – Centre for Air Power Studies) Of the seven Heads of State invited to PM Modi’s third swearing-in ceremony from India’s neighbourhood, four were from the island states of the Indian Ocean, namely Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles. Apart from sending signals about expanding the arc of India’s neighbourhood circle, it also sent a message about the growing relevance of the maritime sphere for India. Additionally, it conveys to global policymakers and commentators that with New Delhi emerging as the link between the Global North and South, it is well set and ready to manage and engage with both its continental and maritime neighbours. However, apart from India’s resource constraints that impinge on its role in the Indian Ocean, China’s diplomatic, institutional, economic, military, and strategic role will increasingly measure and monitor India’s effectiveness and impact in the region.
Modi 3.0 and the Island States of the Indian Ocean – CAPS India
India – Mexico
(Hari Seshasayee – Observer Research Foundation) The recently held elections in Mexico and India saw the incumbent parties begin their campaigns from a similar course. The leaders in both countries, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known by his initials, AMLO) from the Morena party, are immensely popular. According to Morning Consult, a pollster, they hold the highest approval ratings of any heads of government in the world—Modi at 70 percent and AMLO at 62 percent. As expected, their popularity translated to a favourable electoral outcome. In both countries, the incumbent governments were voted back into power despite a united opposition that hobbled together a big-tent coalition to put up a tougher fight. In India, Modi has begun his third term as prime minister. Since Mexico’s Constitution restricts presidents to a single six-year term, AMLO was ineligible to run for re-election, but his party’s candidate Claudia Sheinbaum coasted to an easy victory. This is where the similarities end. The governments in both countries now follow vastly different paths.
Mexico and India: Divergent paths, similar outcomes (orfonline.org)
India – Russia
(Ivan Shchedrov – Observer Research Foundation) The speculations about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow, published in late June, were immediately picked up by the world media. Everyone understood that the interaction with Russia’s leadership would carry important political and symbolic significance as it would be the first foreign bilateral visit after India’s general elections this year. Thus, Modi decided to break an informal tradition of visiting the immediate South Asian neighbourhood first. Being the first visit to Russia’s capital since 2015, the visit marked the country’s commitment to the Russia–India dialogue format, which has been postponed for three years, excluding the meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan in 2022. The suspension clearly resonated with the consistency of the Russia–China dialogue, as there were three back-to-back personal meetings.
From unpredictability to risk management: Modi’s visit to Moscow (orfonline.org)
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Shukriya Bradost, Clingendael) In September 2022, the death of Mahsa Jina Amini marked a major turning point for Iran. The event sparked nationwide protests that rapidly evolved from calls to discard controversial hijab regulations to calls to overthrow the Islamic Republic. The Iranian government responded with repression, killing over 400 protesters in late 2022 and early 2023, according to human rights groups. The Clingendael blog series ‘Iran in transition’ explores power dynamics in four critical dimensions that have shaped the country’s transformation since: state-society relations, intra-elite dynamics, the economy, and foreign relations. This blog post analyzes the Kurdish struggle for greater autonomy and local self-governance in the context of the 2022/2023 protests.
The Kurdish struggle in Iran: Power dynamics and the quest for autonomy | Clingendael
(Barbara Slavin, Robert A. Manning, Mathew Burrows – Stimson Center) The Stimson Center recently convened a meeting of U.S. regional experts to discuss three scenarios for the Middle East over the next 18 months: a continuation of low-level fighting in Gaza; an “all-hell-breaks-loose” nightmare of increased war and violence; and a “keep-hope-alive” vision entailing a long-term cease fire in Gaza and a plan for physical and political reconstruction. Throughout the discussion it became apparent that some variation of the first scenario is most likely with the second scenario having some plausibility; the third scenario, however, was seen as unlikely by 2026. The meeting was held under the Chatham House Rule to foster an atmosphere conducive to frankness
Scenarios for the Middle East to 2026: Worse Before It’s Better • Stimson Center
(Nisreen AL-Hmoud – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Policy makers in the Middle East and North Africa should work to ensure lab biosafety and biosecurity by raising awareness of risks and developing ethical standards and codes of conduct, as well as improving laws and regulations. Globally, this work is unfinished. In the MENA region, policies and training related to pathogen research, including gain-of function work, remains uneven.
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Christina Harward, Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, and George Barros – Institute for the Study of War) Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian ammunition depot in Sergeevka, Voronezh Oblast on the night of July 6 to 7. Satellite imagery confirms that the Ukrainian Air Force conducted a successful strike against a reported Russian regimental command post in Belgorod Oblast in late June 2024, likely with Western-provided weapons – further demonstrating how Ukraine could disrupt Russian offensive operations should the West continue to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia. Ukrainian drone operators appear to be improving their capabilities to interdict longer-range Russian drones in mid-air, and these technological innovations may allow Ukrainian forces to ease pressures on short-range and medium-range air defense assets if successfully fielded at scale. Chechen “Akhmat” Spetsnaz forces likely coerced a Russian milblogger to issue a public apology after he criticized “Akhmat” forces – an illustrative example of unprofessionalism in the Russian military. Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City. Open-source researchers analyzed satellite imagery and assessed that Russia has removed roughly 42 percent of Russian tanks from pre-war open-air storage since the start of the full-scale invasion.
UK – Pacific
(Alex Bristow – ASPI The Strategist) Britain has a new prime minister, Keir Starmer, leading its first Labour government in 14 years. Key questions for us now are how Britain under Labour will approach the security partnership with Australia and whether London will remain committed to investing defence resources in the Indo-Pacific.
Will Labour keep Britain at full tilt in the Pacific? | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Vietnam
(Ahmed Albayrak, Roland Rajah – Lowy The Interpreter) Vietnam in many ways seems the belle of the ball in Southeast Asia. Economically it has been amongst the top beneficiaries as multinational firms and supply chains look to diversify out of China. And that’s because in part geo-strategically it also seems well positioned: what other country could host the leaders of the United States, China and Russia within the space of a year?
Political upheaval in Vietnam is holding its economy back | Lowy Institute
