COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia
(Chris Taylor – ASPI) Australia’s strategic warning time has collapsed—in response to profound geopolitical shifts. As the ADF is adapting to the hard implications of this change, so must the national intelligence community (NIC).
Australia – Somaliland
(Abdi Daud – ASPI The Strategist) Australia should recognise Somaliland, a territory that is claimed by Somalia but has asserted its independence since 1991.
Recognising Somaliland would be in Australia’s interest | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – USA
(Danielle Cave – ASPI The Strategist) The Presidential debate last week was tough viewing. In the aftermath of President Joe Biden’s faltering performance, and the Supreme Court’s favourable ruling on Donald Trump’s immunity claim, Australia needs to supercharge its planning, because the odds of a second Trump presidency have seemingly shortened.
France
(Gesine Weber, Adam Hsakou – GMF) The first round of the French legislative elections on Sunday has produced the anticipated result: the far-right National Rally (RN) topped the leftist Popular Front (LFP) and, in third place, French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble.
India
(Paras Ratna – Lowy The Interpreter) India’s 2024 general election resulted in a coalition government – the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party leading the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) but falling short of majority to rule on its own right. The outcome means alliance partners will have the potential for a reasonable sway over policy making in Modi’s third term – perhaps also in the presentation and direction of India’s foreign policy.
Chandrababu Naidu: Modi’s coalition partner complements his global outlook | Lowy Institute
Japan
(ASPI) This interview is all about Japan and regional security. Dr Euan Graham, Senior ASPI Analyst speaks with Narushige Michishita, professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo and Japan Scholar with the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Asia Program. The conversation covers Japan’s perspective on the strategic outlook in the Indo-Pacific, the role of the US-Japan alliance and the evolution of the Australia-Japan relationship. Euan and Michishita also discuss Japan’s major investments in defence, including a promise to increase defence funding by 60 percent, and opportunities to increase regional cooperation on security, including through AUKUS.
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Peter Clarke – RUSI) In January 2024 Iran successfully tested the launch of ballistic missiles housed in cargo containers from the deck of a container ship, giving it the ability to launch missile strikes from new and previously unexpected vectors and from a highly survivable platform. This has significantly increased Iran’s naval strike effectiveness.
Iran’s Modern Q-Ship: A Threat from New Quarters | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) In a bid to boost the supply of clean drinking water to the Palestinian population in Gaza, Israel on July 2 connected a power line to a main desalination plant in the strip,Reuters reported. A statement issued by the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) — an Israeli Ministry of Defense agency focused on the supply of humanitarian aid to the Palestinian territories — said that the plant, located in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, was directly connected to the Israeli grid and would be managed by UNICEF, a United Nations humanitarian agency. “The increase in [the] supply of water is a further step taken to support humanitarian efforts for Gazan residents, and to prevent contamination and outbreaks of disease during the summer months,” the COGAT statement announced.
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) The Anti-Defamation League (ADL), a U.S.-based Jewish civil rights organization, submitted a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court in Washington, DC, on July 1 targeting the regimes in Iran, Syria, and North Korea for enabling Hamas’s terrorist atrocities in Israel on October 7. Jointly filed with international law firm Crowell & Mooring, the suit was lodged on behalf of 130 U.S. citizens who were killed or injured on October 7 and family members of U.S. victims. The 117-page civil action asserts that the defendants “provided material support to Hamas that enabled it to commit atrocities in Israel on October 7, 2023,” the ADL said in a press release. That support includes funding and training from Iran and Syria as well as weapons from Iran and North Korea. Pyongyang also “provided specific assistance” to Hamas with regard to “the design and construction of underground tunnel networks used in attacks in Israel,” according to the court filing.
American October 7 Victims File U.S. Lawsuit Against Iran, Syria and North Korea (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Hours after Hamas massacred 1,200 Israelis on October 7, Hezbollah opened a second front against Israel on its northern border, re-igniting a conflict now at risk of escalating into a full-blown war. While Iran provides most of its financing, crime is a core component of Hezbollah’s fundraising – in fact, the group’s avowed religious pieties notwithstanding, there is almost no crime from which its overseas networks will refrain in their pursuit of money: Drug trafficking, gun running, blood diamonds, illicit timber, even human trafficking.
How Hezbollah Fundraises Through Crime (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist organization claimed responsibility for a deadly roadside bomb attack in the West Bank on July 1 in which one Israeli officer was killed and another was seriously wounded. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Sgt. First Class (res.) Yehuda Geto, 22, was participating in a counterterrorism operation in the Nur Shams camp near the city of Tulkarem.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad Claims Responsibility for Fatal West Bank Bombing (fdd.org)
(Azar Gat – INSS) The “concept” is a term that remains fixed in the Israeli public discourse after the 1973 Yom Kippur debacle. It refers to a failed overarching narrative that underlay Israel’s intelligence and security framework. As in 1973, the one that was shattered on October 7, 2023, was marked by overconfidence and complacency. When it shattered, Israel’s vulnerability to the Iranian “ring of fire” was exposed, adding to distressing matters directly involved in the war: The problem of the hostages in Gaza, overstretching of the military forces, increasing public pessimism, the growing economic price of war, the collapse of international legitimacy, the lack of solutions to the problem of the displaced from the northern communities and vis-à-vis Hezbollah, and Iran’s rapid progression toward the status of a nuclear threshold state. Given all this, a concept of distress has emerged, around which a consensus is quickly forming, with major questions pushed aside or repressed.
Caution, The New Concept—From Overconfidence and Complacency to Distress | INSS
(Amir Lupovici – INSS) For several decades, the strategy of deterrence has been an important pillar of Israel’s security doctrine. The October 7 attack brings up a number of questions and challenges that relate not only to the effectiveness of this strategy but also to Israel’s heavy reliance on it. The article seeks to analyze the failure of deterrence and even more so, the question of why Israel places its confidence in the strategy of deterrence against Hamas, although it is not at all clear that this strategy is effective against the threats that this organization poses. Despite several indications in recent years that Israel’s deterrent threat has had a limited effect on Hamas’s behavior—chiefly the recurring rounds of violence and even an increase in the scope of the violence from one round to the next—the strategy of deterrence has remained a central component of Israel’s confrontation with Hamas.
Israeli Deterrence and the October 7 Attack | INSS
NATO
(Ian Lesser – GMF) For 75 years, NATO strategy toward its southern flank has generally taken a back seat to more demanding and existential requirements in the East. At a time of war in Ukraine and an increasingly dangerous confrontation with Russia, security challenges emanating from the South—from Africa to the Persian Gulf—will not top the alliance’s summit agenda in Washington, DC. But these challenges are critical to transatlantic security in their own right and as an element in the conflict with Moscow. The summit is an opportunity to build on NATO’s recent report by independent experts to articulate a more explicit strategy for its southern neighborhood. Three factors should be considered.
(Bonnie S. Glaser – GMF) NATO’s engagement with Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand—known as the Indo-Pacific 4 (IP4)—began to flourish after 9/11 with coordination on counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan and on counter-piracy missions in the Indian Ocean. In the early 2010s, NATO signed formal partnership agreements with the IP4. The alliance’s first convening with the group took place in 2016 and focused on shared concerns about North Korea’s developing nuclear and conventional military capabilities. The NATO-IP4 partnership was elevated with the inaugural participation of the leaders of the four Indo-Pacific countries in the alliance’s 2022 Madrid summit and its Vilnius summit the following year. The groups’ third meeting will take place at NATO’s 75th anniversary gathering in Washington, DC.
(Sophie Arts – GMF) As geopolitical tensions continue to rise and relations between Russia and the West collapse, the Arctic is reemerging as a theater of strategic importance for NATO. Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine—framed by the Kremlin’s propaganda machine as a proxy war orchestrated by the alliance—and continued hybrid aggression against many of its member states have raised the specter of conventional and nuclear confrontation.
The NATO Washington Summit and the Arctic | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
(Kristine Berzina – GMF) NATO has refocused on deterrence and defense, and nowhere is this more important than on its eastern flank. Today, the alliance must project strength from the Arctic to the Black Sea to face a revanchist Russia. Future escalation is possible. As US President Joe Biden said in the June presidential debate, the Kremlin could next attack NATO allies Poland and Hungary.
(David Salvo – GMF) Citizens of NATO member states face an increasing onslaught of manipulated information, a challenge made more complex—and more widespread—by the ease of access to generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools. The alliance’s adversaries, particularly the Kremlin, have long been exploiting open, transparent information environments to foment greater instability in democratic institutions and societies. Russia, especially, seeks to undermine public support in NATO nations for helping Ukraine defend itself while amplifying views of European allies as freeloaders exploiting US largesse and tarnishing the democratic values that ostensibly unite countries in the world’s preeminent political-military alliance.
Peru – China – USA
(Martin Cassinelli – Atlantic Council) On Friday, Peruvian President Dina Boluarte concluded her state visit to China by meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Accompanied by five ministers, she also met with other top Chinese officials, including Premier Li Qiang and top legislator Zhao Leji. In addition to political discussions, Boluarte met with business leaders from Huawei, BYD, China Southern Power Grid, and COSCO Shipping. This visit, highlighting China’s deepening economic ties with Latin America, contrasts with the United States’ limited economic engagement with Peru. This contrast is underscored by the White House’s decision not to invite Boluarte for a bilateral meeting during her last visit to Washington in November 2023. Given the limited recent US engagement with Peru and deepening ties between Lima and Beijing, Boluarte’s state visit to China should serve as an alarm bell for US policymakers.
Russia
(Andrey Pertsev – Carnegie Endowment of International Peace) One of President Vladimir Putin’s major achievements in the 2000s was considered to be his dismantling of Russia’s regional clans, which had controlled whole swaths of the country. Many thought that compromising Russia’s federalism was an acceptable price to pay for such a victory. However, fast forward two decades, and Russia’s regional clans are again on the rise—this time as a result of Putin’s ultraconservative approach to staffing and his reluctance to replace top officials in Moscow.
Russia – North Korea
(Jane Hardy – Lowy The Interpreter) In Pyongyang last month Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a new strategic treaty with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Putin goes to Pyongyang: Should we be worried? | Lowy Institute
UK
(Olivia O’Sullivan, Patricia Lewis – Chatham House) Much of the UK election campaign has focused on domestic issues, but security and defence have also been on the pre-election agenda. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party have centred the idea that the median voter feels insecure. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives have sought to portray themselves as guarantors of the nation’s security – and queried Labour’s commitment to defence.
Ukraine
(Mariana Budjeryn – Brookings) On May 30, 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s five-year term in office expired. Seven months earlier, in October 2023, the date for the regular elections to the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, passed by. Zelenskyy and the Rada deputies will remain in office as long as the war continues: The suspension of regular elections in wartime is mandated by Ukraine’s constitution. Still, amid a societal consensus that the war’s continuation makes elections politically, financially, and logistically unfeasible, there is a welling anxiety about the fragile state of the very democratic values and liberties that Ukraine is fighting to defend.
Safeguarding Ukraine’s democracy during the war | Brookings
USA
(John Hardie – Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Welcome back to the Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker. Once a month, we ask FDD’s experts and scholars to assess the administration’s foreign policy. They provide trendlines of very positive, positive, neutral, negative, or very negative for the areas they watch.
Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: July (fdd.org)
(Jason M. Blazakis – Lawfare) The Biden administration’s recent designation of the Nordic Resistance Movement is a step in the right direction for fighting far-right terrorism. The Middlebury Institute of International Studies’s Jason Blazakis, however, argues that the United States has a very long way to go and outlines the many challenges the United States faces when trying to treat racist and anti-government groups with the same seriousness that it has jihadist terrorists.
(Richard Haass – ASPI The Strategist) The first, and maybe only, debate between the 45th and 46th presidents of the United States constituted a clear win for Donald Trump, as far more viewers focused on Joe Biden’s apparent physical and mental infirmities than Donald Trump’s evasions and trafficking in partial or outright lies. The question now, though, is what, if any, difference it will make in the presidential election that is now just four months away.
