COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Arctic
(Abbie Tingstad, Fabian Villalobos, Rebecca Tisherman, Michelle D. Ziegler – RAND Corporation) This RAND paper was developed to communicate the results of a tabletop exercise (TTX) conducted as part of a broader event, a workshop called “Critical Minerals in the Arctic: Forging the Path Forward,” which RAND cosponsored with the Wilson Center, the University of Alaska, and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Arctic Energy Office. The authors summarize the TTX methodology and report key findings for policymakers and other stakeholders on five topics: supply chains, local community impacts and opportunities, infrastructure, finance, and the regulatory environment.
China
(Seong-hyon Lee – East Asia Forum) China faces an economic challenge rooted in a struggling real estate sector and a strategic shift towards high-end industries, exacerbated by President Xi Jinping’s emphasis on national security and distrust of market forces. Despite some arguing that China’s economic predicament is not as dire as it seems, concerns persist about its ability to rebound from significant economic downturn if it continues its current economic policies, indicating a possible struggle to regain momentum.
China’s economic conundrum under Xi Jinping | East Asia Forum
China – Kyrgyzstan
(Niva Yau – The Jamestown Foundation) Beijing pressures the Kyrgyz government to censor voices criticizing the People’s Republic of China (PRC), its companies, and its citizens within the Kyrgyz Republic. As PRC companies have expanded in country—particularly in the mining sector—extensive environmental damage has provoked local protests. Some cultural products that dramatize protests against PRC companies have faced censorship, occasionally with apparent collusion between the Kyrgyz government and PRC journalists.
PRC companies operating overseas will sometimes vet potential employees by making them take tests to discern their loyalty or hostility to the PRC.
Beijing Pushes Local Censorship to Protect PRC Companies in the Kyrgyz Republic – Jamestown
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Liliana Gamboa – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Climate change presents states with new obligations. Chile and Colombia are asking what those are.
A Seminal Case for Climate Litigation – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ecuador
(Ryan C. Berg and Rubi Bledsoe – Center for Strategic & International Studies) From January 22 to February 1, 2024, Ecuador received visits by the commander of the United States Southern Command, the deputy assistant secretary of the Office of Counternarcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, the U.S. special presidential advisor for the Americas, and mayors of a number of European port cities acutely affected by drug trafficking, such as Antwerp, Hamburg, and Rotterdam. This came after an eruption of violence in Ecuador in early January. Ecuador’s president, Daniel Noboa, has also sought and received domestic support via a security referendum for his mano dura approach to combating crime. Following the authors’ visit to the country, however, it is evident that without long-term domestic reforms, the international support pledged during these high-level visits and all subsequent efforts will not yield the permanent results the country needs.
Why Ecuador’s Security Crisis Demands Global Action (csis.org)
France
(Shairee Malhotra – Observer Research Foundation) Just as one high-stakes election concluded in Europe, campaigning is in full swing in France. On 9 June, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the country’s National Assembly, in line with Article 12 of the French Constitution which can be evoked in times of political crises or deadlock, and called a snap election. The shock move was inspired by Macron’s crushing defeat to the French far-right in the European Parliament (EP) elections that took place from 6-9 June. The far-right Rassemblement National or National Rally (RN) garnered 31.4 percent of the vote share (30 seats), while Macron’s coalition and his Renaissance party, part of the liberal Renew Europe group that is still the third largest in the EP, gained only 14.6 percent of the French vote (13 seats). The French snap election, taking place three years before the next presidential election in 2027 when Macron cannot seek a third term according to the French Constitution, is scheduled for 30 June, with a second round on 7 July.
Macron’s risky gamble (orfonline.org)
(Jörn Fleck – Atlantic Council) Whatever French President Emmanuel Macron’s strategy was that led him to go all-in with calling snap elections, it looks like he lost. His high-risk gamble to contain and beat back the political extremes in France has backfired. It is not without irony that Macron, who entered the national and European stage as the prodigy of centrist politics, may be its undoing, as the person who paved the way to power for Marine Le Pen’s right-wing extremist National Rally. Macron’s underestimation of voter discontent, of the dynamism of the National Rally, of the likelihood of a united left, and of the willingness of the center-right Republicans to ally with Le Pen underlines how big the president’s miscalculations and isolation from the political realities really were.
Will Macron be the undoing of European centrist politics? – Atlantic Council
India
(Golam Rasul – East Asia Forum) A report from the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India purporting that Muslims will soon outnumber Hindus has intensified political polarisation and anti-Muslim sentiment, despite contrary demographic evidence. To reduce tensions and promote unity, it’s crucial to invest in education, health and socioeconomic wellbeing of religious minorities, recognising that these factors significantly influence population growth rates.
Reporting on religious minorities in India | East Asia Forum
India – USA
(Crisis Group) Crisis Group trustee and former Indian National Security Adviser and Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon talks about India’s views on the U.S. election and how New Dehli navigates a rapidly changing world order.
U.S.-India Relations in a World Between Orders | Crisis Group
Iran
(Saeed Azimi – Stimson Center) Only 24 million of 61 million eligible Iranians voted on June 28 in snap presidential elections called after the untimely death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. The 39.9 percent turnout was the worst in the history of the Islamic Republic and reflected deep-seated unhappiness and uncertainty among Iranians about whether their votes could affect any change.
Iran Elections: Record-Low Turnout Shows Even Regime Loyalists Are Unhappy • Stimson Center
Kazakhstan
(Nurbek Bekmurzaev – The Jamestown Foundation) In June, Kazakhstan voiced its plans to declassify data on rare-earth and rare-metal deposits as well as a renewed effort to attract Western investment to mine and process the country’s vast reserves. Russia’s war against Ukraine has exposed the European Union and Western countries’ reliance on China as the main exporter and Russia as the main transit country for rare earths delivered to Europe. Kazakhstan presents a promising chance to limit that dependency. Attracting foreign investment and adopting new technologies will be key, and the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union are quickly becoming central players in maximizing the potential of Kazakhstan’s REE and RM industry.
Kazakhstan and the West Look to Strengthen Rare-Earth Cooperation – Jamestown
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Beatrice Eriksson – ICCT) Between 2012 and 2019, a significant number of foreigners travelled to Syria and Iraq, many to join ISIS and live under what came to be the so-called caliphate. Their backgrounds and journeys are as diverse as their nationalities. One such individual was Amanda, a 23-year-old Swedish woman. She converted to Islam in her teenage years, became radicalised, married a man who became known as the most notorious Swedish terrorist, and travelled to Syria with their four children, all under the age of four, to live under ISIS’s rule. In Syria, she gave birth to three more children.
NATO
(Timothy Wright, Zuzanna Gwadera – IISS) NATO member states are reversing decades of surface-to-surface missile and rocket-inventory cuts by acquiring new capabilities. Their lack of long-range fires has been underscored by Russia’s considerable use of ballistic missiles against Ukraine. While prompting multiple acquisitions, it also exposes the limited procurement choices European states have for regional off-the-shelf designs.
Analysis: NATO goes back to ballistics (iiss.org)
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to assert that Russia maintains the initiative in its war against Ukraine while facing a deteriorating economy, significant manpower shortages, and strengthened Western solidarity. The growing supply of artillery shells, gradual improvement of Ukraine’s missile defense system, and increased air capabilities could turn the tide of the war in the coming weeks. The rising trend in Western solidarity to ensure Ukraine will win the war through pledging arms and economic support is certain to gain new momentum at the coming NATO summit.
Russia Seeks to Maintain Battlefield Initiative on Eve of NATO Summit – Jamestown
(Kristen Taylor – Atlantic Council) Against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine and rising aggression across the globe, allies and partners are ramping up defense investment, but increased spending is only part of the equation. Both the United States and Europe are failing to match defense priorities with industrial output. US and European efforts to increase munition production fall drastically short of the needed quantity to both sustain Ukraine’s war effort and replenish allied stockpiles. Russia is producing nearly three times more artillery munitions than allied industries. Allies are finding that scaling up industrial production is more difficult than expected. Decades of slashed defense budgets have left allied defense industrial bases vulnerable. As war rages in Europe and allies face increasingly depleted stocks, allies should use the NATO Summit next week in Washington as an opportunity to send clear demand signals to industry and develop more coordinated, effective industrial strategies.
NATO allies need a better approach to industrial strategy – Atlantic Council
Pakistan
(Vaishali Jaipal – Observer Research Foundation) The February 2024 general elections in Pakistan witnessed a notable surge in the participation of religio-political parties, with 23 (refer to Fig. 1) out of the 175 registered parties identifying as such, compared to only 12 in 2018. However, this increment doesn’t necessarily translate into electoral success, as the vote share of many sectarian parties, especially smaller ones, has been consistently declining since 2013.
God, guns, and the ballot box: The decline of religio-political parties in Pakistan (orfonline.org)
(Mariam Shah – RUSI) Amid a surge of violence in Pakistan, the recent decision to launch Operation Azm-e-Istehkam (Resolve for Stability) underscores the government’s continued commitment to combatting terrorism and extremism. However, Pakistan must adopt a comprehensive strategy addressing the root causes if it is to achieve lasting peace and security. In the face of growing criticism, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif clarified that it will not be a ‘large-scale military operation’; still, merely launching another military operation will not yield the desired results.
Russia
(RUSI) In May 2024, the Centre for Finance and Security (CFS) at RUSI convened a roundtable discussion with 23 stakeholders from the public and private sectors in Europe. The event was part of RUSI’s work to raise awareness on key challenges for sanctions implementation through the European Sanctions and Illicit Finance Monitoring and Analysis Network (Euro SIFMANet), funded by the National Endowment for Democracy. The discussion centred on outlining the scope of Russian sanctions evasion activity in the virtual asset industry, as well as jurisdictional vulnerabilities that can enhance exposure to this threat, and practical steps to mitigate the risk.
Sovereign Funds
(Jodi Vittori and Lakshmi Kumar – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) To protect their assets for the long term, some countries invest resources and wealth into sovereign wealth funds, which manage a diversified portfolio. But without adequate transparency requirements, these vehicles can be ripe for corruption and other governance risks.
Taiwan
(Willy Jou – East Asia Forum) The newly elected Taiwanese President, Lai Ching-te, has faced controversy due to proposed parliamentary reform legislation that has led to political clashes within the government and protests outside the Legislative Yuan. Though the reform bills, aimed at expanding the powers of parliament, have drawn scrutiny about their hurried way of passing and potential for abuse, the approval for this package exceeded disapproval by a roughly two-to-one margin. Continuous clashes with the opposition-controlled legislation indicate turbulent times ahead for the Lai administration.
Difficult times Lai ahead for Taiwan’s new president | East Asia Forum
(Yi-feng Tao – Brookings) Following the inauguration of William Lai in May 2024, Beijing engaged in displays of military prowess around Taiwan and suspended preferential tariff treatments under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). These actions, viewed as responses to the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) prolonged hold on the presidency, were also aimed at unsettling market confidence in the DPP’s leadership by raising cross-Strait tensions.
How China’s nationalistic aggression launched Taiwan’s economic renaissance | Brookings
Venezuela
(Crisis Group) Venezuelans will cast ballots on 28 July. Polls indicate that a credible election would see the opposition prevail in the economically stricken South American country. Crisis Group spoke with chavistas to gauge how they respond to the possibility of losing power.
Winds of Change in Venezuela? Chavismo Faces Its Greatest Electoral Test | Crisis Group
