Geostrategic magazine (it-en, october 16, 2023)

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We are in cooperation with The Science of Where MagazineThrough the analyses of global think tanks, we follow the evolution of the situation in Israel/Middle East

Daily from global think tanks (Worlds – Systemic Sustainability)

Worlds (Attack on Israel; Africa; Australia; India-Canada; Indonesia; Poland; USA-Ukraine)

Attack on Israel

James Jeffrey (Lawfare) – What 50 Years of Wars in the Middle East Tell Us about Gaza | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)

Raphael S. Cohen, David E. Johnson, David E. Thaler, Brenna Allen, Elizabeth M. Bartels, James Cahill, Shira Efron (RAND Corporation) – Lessons from Israel’s Wars in Gaza | RAND

Rodger Shanahan (ASPI The Strategist) – Israel may find Gaza easy to enter, but it will be hard to leave | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Johanna Moore, Andie Parry, and Nicholas Carl (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 15, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Shay Shabtai (INSS) – Iron Swords II: ‘It is a New Regional Order, Stupid’, and it must include the Demilitarization of Political Islam (besacenter.org)

Shay Shabtai (INSS) – Iron Swords I: A Fundamental Miscalculation on Both Sides That Must Lead to the Defeat of Hamas (besacenter.org)

Africa

Tiseke Kasambala (Centre for Democracy and Development) scrive delle ragioni di fondo della serie di colpi di Stato avvenuti in Africa negli ultimi anni, fino all’ultimo in Gabon

Tiseke Kasambala (Centre for Democracy and Development) writes about the underlying reasons for the series of coups in Africa in recent years, up to the latest in Gabon

Surge of Military Coups in Africa: A Threat to Human Rights and the Rule of Law (cddwestafrica.org)

Australia

Chris Taylor (ASPI The Strategist) scrive della ‘intelligence diplomacy’ dell’Australia

Chris Taylor (ASPI The Strategist) writes on Australia’s ‘intelligence diplomacy’

Intelligence chiefs’ international visits highlight a useful tool of Australian statecraft | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

India – Canada

Kim Richard Nossal (East Asia Forum) scrive della spirale negativa dei rapporti tra India e Canada a seguito delle accuse canadesi sul coinvolgimento dell’India nell’omicidio di Hardeep Singh Nijjar, leader separatista sikh e cittadino canadese

Kim Richard Nossal (East Asia Forum) writes about the downward spiral of relations between India and Canada following Canadian allegations of India’s involvement in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, Sikh separatist leader and Canadian citizen

India–Canada relations are trapped in a doom loop | East Asia Forum

Indonesia

Manggi Habir (East Asia Forum) scrive della decisione di Tesla di impiantare stabilimenti di produzione di auto elettriche in Malesia. Ciò che preoccupa è la tendenza dei principali produttori di veicoli elettrici a passare dall’uso del nichel a una combinazione minerale di litio-ferro-fosfato come fonte di batterie per veicoli elettrici. Tale conversione potrebbe avere un impatto devastante sugli ambiziosi piani di downstreaming del nichel dell’Indonesia

Manggi Habir (East Asia Forum) writes about Tesla’s decision to set up electric car production plants in Malaysia. What is worrying is the trend of major electric vehicle manufacturers to switch from using nickel to a lithium-iron-phosphate mineral combination as a source of electric vehicle batteries. This conversion could have a devastating impact on Indonesia’s ambitious nickel downstreaming plans

Reassessing Indonesia’s nickel downstreaming policy | East Asia Forum

Poland

Daniel Fried (Atlantic Council) riflette sulle elezioni polacche e su come esse influenzeranno il futuro del Paese. Varsavia potrebbe essersi avvicinata a Bruxelles. Secondo gli exit poll pubblicati domenica, i partiti centristi e progressisti dell’opposizione, guidati dal partito Piattaforma Civica, sembrano aver guadagnato abbastanza seggi per formare una coalizione e spodestare il partito nazionalista di destra Diritto e Giustizia, che guida il Paese dal 2015

Daniel Fried (Atlantic Council) reflects on the Polish elections and how they will influence the future of the country. Warsaw may have moved closer to Brussels. According to exit polls published on Sunday, the centrist and progressive opposition parties, led by the Civic Platform party, appear to have gained enough seats to form a coalition and oust the right-wing nationalist Law and Justice party, which has led the country since 2015

Did Polish voters just set a new course toward centrism? – Atlantic Council

USA – Ukraine

Ben Connable (Lawfare) scrive della necessità di una visione più ampia, da parte USA, nel sostegno militare all’Ucraina

Ben Connable (Lawfare) writes of the need for a broader US vision in military support for Ukraine

Give NATO’s Eastern Flank Countries and Ukraine All the M1 Tanks | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)

Raphael Cohen e Gian Gentile (RAND Corporation) scrivono sulle crescenti difficoltà, negli USA, all’appoggio totale all’Ucraina. Tra ragioni strategiche e questioni di politica interna

Raphael Cohen and Gian Gentile (RAND Corporation) write about the growing difficulties in the US in fully supporting Ukraine. Between strategic reasons and domestic political issues

Negotiating with Russia Is Still a Bad Idea | RAND

Systemic Sustainability (Climate Action & Impact; Gender; Migration; Nuclear Energy; Technology)

Climate Action & Impact

Clare Francis (Lowy The Interpreter) scrive a proposito del nuovo movimento a sostegno della leadership climatica delle donne indigene, lanciato il mese scorso. Tale iniziativa si concentra sul legame tra la crisi climatica e i diritti umani, in particolare i diritti delle donne, delle popolazioni indigene e di altre comunità emarginate

Clare Francis (Lowy The Interpreter) writes about the new movement in support of indigenous women’s climate leadership, launched last month. This initiative focuses on the link between the climate crisis and human rights, particularly the rights of women, indigenous peoples and other marginalised communities

Global South activists seek a human rights framework for the climate crisis | Lowy Institute

Gender

Rutendo Chabikwa e Nancy Salem (Oxford Internet Institute) hanno proposto l’adozione di una prospettiva femminista nella governance tecnologica.  Le ricercatrici condividono i punti salienti del primo raduno MozFest House Kenya, dove l’argomento è stato discusso a lungo nell’ambito di un più ampio dibattito su Internet e IA

Rutendo Chabikwa and Nancy Salem (Oxford Internet Institute) proposed the adoption of a feminist perspective in technology governance.  The researchers share highlights from the first MozFest House Kenya gathering, where the topic was discussed at length as part of a broader debate on the Internet and AI

OII | Why adopting a feminist approach to tech governance can help ensure a healthy internet and trustworthy AI (ox.ac.uk)

Migration

Steffen Angenendt, Anne Koch e Jasper Tjaden (SWP) scrivono, in un report, sull’importanza di strumenti basati sull’intelligenza artificiale attualmente in fase di sviluppo per la previsione della migrazione irregolare

Steffen Angenendt, Anne Koch and Jasper Tjaden (SWP) write in a report on the importance of artificial intelligence-based tools currently under development for predicting irregular migration

Predicting Irregular Migration – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (swp-berlin.org)

Nuclear Energy

Joan Blades e John Harte (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) scrivono del dibattito in corso sulla sicurezza dell’energia nucleare nel mix di transizione energetica

Joan Blades and John Harte (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) write about the ongoing debate on the safety of nuclear power in the energy transition mix

Nuclear power: Why the divide in expert views? – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (thebulletin.org)

Technology

Kyle Miller e Andrew Lohn (CSET) scrive delle tecniche per produrre modelli linguistici più piccoli ed efficienti che richiedono meno risorse per essere sviluppati e gestiti. La combinazione di piccole dimensioni (cioè facili da usare) e apertura (cioè facile accesso) potrebbe avere implicazioni significative per lo sviluppo dell’intelligenza artificiale

Kyle Miller and Andrew Lohn (CSET) write about techniques to produce smaller, more efficient language models that require fewer resources to develop and run. The combination of small size (i.e. easy to use) and openness (i.e. easy access) could have significant implications for the development of artificial intelligence

Techniques to Make Large Language Models Smaller: An Explainer – Center for Security and Emerging Technology (georgetown.edu)

Emelia Probasco e Kathleen Curlee (CSET) scrivono delle differenze tra Australia, Canada, Giappone, Regno Unito e Stati Uniti sui principi fondamentali dell’AI, che potrebbero avere un forte impatto sull’interoperabilità e sulla formulazione di norme internazionali

Emelia Probasco and Kathleen Curlee (CSET) write about the differences between Australia, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States on the fundamentals of AI, which could have a major impact on interoperability and the formulation of international standards

The Inigo Montoya Problem for Trustworthy AI (International Version) – Center for Security and Emerging Technology (georgetown.edu)

Elina Treyger, Jirka Taylor, Daniel Kim, Maynard A. Holliday (RAND Corporation) scrivono che gli algoritmi di intelligenza artificiale stanno permeando quasi tutti i settori dell’attività umana, comprese le decisioni strategiche. Gli Autori si interrogano sulla complessità delle dinamiche d’impatto dell’IA

Elina Treyger, Jirka Taylor, Daniel Kim, Maynard A. Holliday (RAND Corporation) write that artificial intelligence algorithms are permeating almost all areas of human activity, including strategic decision-making. The authors question the complexity of the impact dynamics of AI

Assessing and Suing an Algorithm: Perceptions of Algorithmic Decisionmaking | RAND

Ekaterina Hertog e Elizabeth Fetterolf (Oxford Internet Institute), in una riflessione intitolata ‘It’s Not Her Fault: Trust through Anthropomorphism among Young Adult Amazon Alexa Users’, pubblicato sulla rivista Convergence, sottolineano come le preoccupazioni relative alla privacy e alla raccolta dei dati influiscano sull’uso della tecnologia

Ekaterina Hertog and Elizabeth Fetterolf (Oxford Internet Institute), in a reflection entitled ‘It’s Not Her Fault: Trust through Anthropomorphism among Young Adult Amazon Alexa Users’, published in the journal Convergence, point out how privacy and data collection concerns affect the use of technology

OII | She’s not listening they are: New research investigates why we trust Amazon’s Alexa in our homes (ox.ac.uk)

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