Open newsletter – april 1, 2022 a.m.

COMPLESSITA’, SCENARI, RISCHIO 

La guerra in Ucraina esonda chiaramente dal campo nel quale si svolge. E’ in gioco ben altro che il rapporto tra Russia e Ucraina (che auspichiamo si definisca velocemente, a evitare ulteriori perdite di vite umane, attraverso i negoziati di pace).

Complice questa guerra, si vedono scelte strategiche che vanno nel senso dell’autosufficienza. Così scrive IndustryWeek, laddove Katherine Tai (U.S. Trade Representative) critica la strategia USA delle sanzioni alla Cina: “Rather than pressuring China to change its “unfair” trade practices, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai said Wednesday the economy would better served by policies to encourage domestic manufacturing.  In a four-hour hearing before the House Ways and Means Committee, President Joe Biden’s trade chief acknowledged that Washington’s strategy of imposing massive tariffs on Beijing — which began under former president Donald Trump — has had little to no effect on its policies”. Il tema delle sanzioni vale anche rispetto alla Russia: l’attivismo americano di queste ore (Reuters) guarda anche alla ripresa del rublo: forse le sanzioni comminate alla Russia non hanno realizzato l’effetto desiderato. 

In prospettiva. Molto si parla del disaccoppiamento delle economie che è certamente un rischio se non è accompagnato da chiare e definite visioni politico-strategiche. Molti si affannano a scrivere di de-globalizzazione ma lo scenario che vediamo più realistico, come nuova fase della globalizzazione, è una sorta di ri-posizionamento (sempre più dinamico) dei rapporti di forza in ambito politico, economico, tecnologico. Questo porterebbe con sé, inevitabilmente, il ri-posizionamento del potere perché si definirebbero nuove geografie (con conseguenti possibili “saldature” tra autocrazie) che, anche in conseguenza della guerra in Ucraina, andrebbero a formare la configurazione del mondo nel XXI secolo. “The European Union is not the centre of the universe,” Nikolai Kobrinets, the head of the European cooperation department at the (russian foreign, NdA) ministry, said”. (Reuters)

Il tema dell’autosufficienza, energetico e alimentare in particolare, è all’ordine del giorno nelle agende strategiche. L’ultimatum dato da Putin all’Europa di pagare il gas in rubli (l’energia e la valuta usate come armi) ci segnala l’altra guerra, che ci preoccupa molto, che si avvia dall’invasione dell’Ucraina. Occorre monitorare l’evoluzione con grande attenzione e realismo. Intanto, l’Agenzia Internazionale per lì’Energia discute di un piano per il rilascio di riserve strategiche (Reuters).

Riguardo alla crisi alimentare che potrà accadere, occorre ascoltare anche le voci dissonanti rispetto al mainstream. Scrive Reuters: “Excluding Russia from the Group of 20 major economies and other international institutions could slow efforts to address a worsening global food crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, the head of German aid group Welthungerhilfe (WHH) told Reuters. Mathias Mogge, chief executive of the group, which serves 14.3 million people with projects in 35 countries, said it was critical to maintain communication with Russia, one of the world’s largest producers of wheat, in tackling the crisis”. Nulla è mai lineare. 

C’è, inoltre, uno scenario “silenzioso” che riguarda lo spazio. La competizione si sposta in quel luogo sempre più strategico. Negli USA si lavora a un “digital twin” dello spazio per simulare operazioni di difesa: partita come operazione commerciale, viene messa a disposizione della US Space Force. Scrive Defense News: “Slingshot Aerospace announced today it is developing a digital replica of the space environment for the U.S. Space Force as part of a new $25 million contract aimed at quickly delivering training and war gaming capabilities. The company’s Digital Space Twin simulates the space environment and maps on-orbit objects and space weather in real-time. Slingshot has been developing the tool as a commercial product for the last two yearsand, through the new contract, will adapt it for Space Force missions to “enhance their ability to analyze and respond to current and future threats,” Slingshot said in a press release Thursday. The company plans to deliver the commercial version before it completes the government product.”. Nota Defense One: “Space is a fast-moving and constantly changing domain where threats can arrive before troops even see them, so the Space Force is buying new technology to give troops a real-time picture of space to train in. The service on Thursday awarded Slingshot Aerospace a $25-million, 39-month contract to provide a digital twin of orbital space. The system will autonomously comb through public and commercial data to provide Guardians a picture of the state of space as it is at any minute, including the locations of more than 7,000 orbiting satellites plus space debris, the potential for solar flares or other space weather, and the chance of disruptions to radio communications”.

(Marco Emanuele)

TODAY:

• AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflict)
• DEFENSE – MILITARY
• ON LIFE 
• RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflict)

Europe – China

• EU to push China at summit to not help Russia in Ukraine war, April 1. By Philip Blenkinsop and Yew Lun Tian, Reuters. EU and Chinese leaders meet for a first summit in two years on Friday with Brussels keen for assurances from Beijing that it will neither supply Russia with arms nor help Moscow circumvent Western sanctions imposed over the invasion of Ukraine. (read more)

Hong Kong

• Hong Kong govt ‘strongly opposes’ UK, US report on city’s diminishing freedoms, April 1. By Reuters.  Hong Kong’s government said on Friday it rejected “unfounded and ridiculous” allegations made in policy reports from Britain and the United States of a deteriorating political and legal situation due to the city’s sweeping national security law. (read more)

Japan – Russia – North Korea

• Japan freezes assets of 4 more Russian organisations, others for involvement in N.Korea’s weapons projects, April 1. By Reuters. (read more)

North Korea

• N.Korea may be preparing new nuclear tests to improve arsenal, U.S. and allies say, April 1. By  Josh Smith, Reuters. There are increasing signs that North Korea could soon test a nuclear weapon for the first time since 2017 in a bid to improve its arsenal and increase political pressure, U.S. and South Korean officials and analysts said. (read more)

Sri Lanka

• Sri Lanka lifts curfew after violent protests over economic crisis, April 1. By Uditha Jayasinghe and Dinuka Liyanawatte, Reuters. Police in Sri Lanka’s capital lifted a curfew on Friday after protests in which dozens of people were arrested and several policemen were hurt near the home of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa over his handling of an economic crisis. (read more)

USA

• Tariffs Have Not Forced China to Change its Ways, US Trade Chief Says, March 31. By Agence France-Press, IndustryWeek. Rather than pressuring China to change its “unfair” trade practices, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai said Wednesday the economy would better served by policies to encourage domestic manufacturing. In a four-hour hearing before the House Ways and Means Committee, President Joe Biden’s trade chief acknowledged that Washington’s strategy of imposing massive tariffs on Beijing — which began under former president Donald Trump — has had little to no effect on its policies. (read more)

DEFENSE – MILITARY

• The testing and explainability challenge facing human-machine teaming, March 31. By Julie Obenauer Motley, Brookings. Militaries around the world are preparing for the next generation of warfare—one in which human-machine teams are integral to operations. Faster decisionmaking, remote sensing, and coordinating across domains and battlespaces will likely be the keys to victory in future conflicts. To realize these advantages, militaries are investing in human-machine teaming (HMT), a class of technologies that aim to marry human judgment with the data-processing and response capabilities of modern computing. (read more)
• Navy Targets Prototypes to Support Human-Operated and Autonomous Weapons and Vehicles, March 31. By Brandi Vincent, Nextgov. The Navy kicked off an effort to drive the making of prototypes for human-powered and autonomous weapons and vehicles. According to a presolicitation updated on Wednesday, the Naval Surface Warfare Center’s Panama City Division “has a requirement for prototyping in support of development, integration, demonstration, testing and evaluation, and delivery of prototype systems, subsystems, components, materials and technologies to support existing or emerging manned or unmanned vehicles, weapons and weapons control systems”—specifically related to mine, amphibious and Naval surface warfare; diving and life support; coastal and underwater intelligence surveillance; and reconnaissance and other missions in nearshore and riverine environments. (read more)
• Ukraine Gives Urgency to Giant NATO Cold-Weather Exercise, March 31. By Elisabeth Braw, Defense One. NATO’s massive Cold Response 2022 was supposed to distinguish itself in one way: it’s a massive—30,000-troop—cold-weather exercise involving nearly all of NATO’s member states. But since it began in Norway last week, Cold Response 2022 has also distinguished itself in two unpredicted ways: four U.S. Marines have lost their lives in an accident, and the exercise is taking place amid a brutal war in the neighborhood. (read more)
• US Navy to terminate DART sonar development with Raytheon, April 1. By Megan Eckstein, Defense News. The U.S. Navy will end its work with Raytheon Technologies developing a sonar for littoral combat ships and frigates and will instead buy a sonar already in use by several navies around the globe. Raytheon’s AN/SQS-62 Variable Depth Sonar, also called the Dual-mode Array Transmitter, was a key component of the LCS anti-submarine warfare mission package and was going to be carried into the Constellation-class frigate program to create commonality within the surface force. (read more)
• US Air Force’s new Jolly Green II combat rescue helicopter begins operational testing, March 31. Stephen Losey, Defense News. The U.S. Air Force’s new combat rescue helicopter, the HH-60W Jolly Green II, has moved into its operational test phase at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada. In a Wednesday release, the Air Force said the last HH-60W left Eglin Air Force Base’s Duke Field in Florida on March 22, wrapping up its initial developmental test with the 413th Flight Test Squadron. (read more)
• US Army on track to award TITAN competitive prototyping contracts in the coming months, March 31. By Courtney Albon, Defense News. The U.S. Army expects to award the next phase of competitive prototyping awards by the end of June for the second phase of its next-generation ground system development effort. (read more)
• Space Force Buys a Digital Twin of Orbital Space, March 31. By Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One. Space is a fast-moving and constantly changing domain where threats can arrive before troops even see them, so the Space Force is buying new technology to give troops a real-time picture of space to train in. The service on Thursday awarded Slingshot Aerospace a $25-million, 39-month contract to provide a digital twin of orbital space. The system will autonomously comb through public and commercial data to provide Guardians a picture of the state of space as it is at any minute, including the locations of more than 7,000 orbiting satellites plus space debris, the potential for solar flares or other space weather, and the chance of disruptions to radio communications.  (read more)
• US Space Force awards contract for simulation and war gaming environment. March 31. By Courtney Albon, Defense News. Slingshot Aerospace announced today it is developing a digital replica of the space environment for the U.S. Space Force as part of a new $25 million contract aimed at quickly delivering training and war gaming capabilities. The company’s Digital Space Twin simulates the space environment and maps on-orbit objects and space weather in real-time. Slingshot has been developing the tool as a commercial product for the last two years and, through the new contract, will adapt it for Space Force missions to “enhance their ability to analyze and respond to current and future threats,” Slingshot said in a press release Thursday. The company plans to deliver the commercial version before it completes the government product. (read more)
• Tanks and helos: How Ukraine can inform military modernization efforts, March 31. By Brandon Tseng, Defense News. The Ukrainian battlefield should inform U.S. and allied military modernization efforts. We all started with a plan, and it’s time to take in recent information and adjust accordingly. The numerous videos of Stinger missiles and man-portable air defense systems annihilating Russian helicopters — just as the Afghans did to the Russians in the 1980s — or the rows of destroyed tanks — just as the U.S. destroyed Iraqi tanks in the 1990s — should inform our modernization efforts. (read more)
• Proposed US Army budget funds third Multi-Domain Task Force, March 31. By Colin Demarest, Defense News. The U.S. Army’s $178 billion budget blueprint for fiscal year 2023 supports a third Multi-Domain Task Force, a flexible unit at the center of the service’s modernization efforts. The third task force will be similar to the two already up and running, Army executives said at a March 29 briefing, and will conduct electronic warfare and cyber operations. It will also aid military experiments and exercises. (read more)

ON LIFE

Cybersecurity

• Flaws in Wyze cam devices allow their complete takeover, April 1. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. Bitdefender researchers discovered three security vulnerabilities in the popular Wyze Cam devices that can be exploited by threat actors to execute arbitrary code and access camera feeds. (read more)
• Apple issues emergency patches to fix actively exploited zero-days, March 31. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. Apple has released emergency security patches to address two zero-day vulnerabilities actively exploited to hack iPhones, iPads, and Macs. (read more)
• Mysterious disclosure of a zero-day RCE flaw Spring4Shell in Spring, March 31. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. Researchers disclosed a zero-day vulnerability, dubbed Spring4Shell, in the Spring Core Java framework called ‘Spring4Shell.’ An unauthenticated, remote attacker could trigger the vulnerability to execute arbitrary code on the target system. The framework is currently maintained by Spring.io which is a subsidiary of VMware. (read more)
• Bad OPSEC allowed researchers to uncover Mars stealer operation, March 31. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. Morphisec Labs recently discovered the Mars stealer that was spreading masqueraded as malicious software cracks and keygens. (read more)
• Google Surveys Federal Employees in Fight with Microsoft for Government Market, March 31. By Mariam Baksh, Nextgov. Government procurement practices should stop defaulting to the easy solution—entrenched Microsoft products—and start prioritizing user demand—for competing Google services—to bolster security, according to a former high-ranking Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency official describing the results of a survey of workers in and out of government.  (read more)

Data

• Report Reveals Surveillance Abuses In Educational Technology, March 31. By Alexandra Kelley, Nextgov. A report examining the use of four educational technology companies’ usage of artificial intelligence was released on Wednesday, following a request from Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Edward J. Markey, D-Mass., and Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. back in 2021. The companies in question—Gaggle.net, Bark Technologies, GoGuardian and Securly Inc.—were found to have misused surveillance technology while students were using the products. The report specifically noted that software monitoring student activity may have been misused for disciplinary purposes resulting in contact with law enforcement and that schools and parents have not been made aware of the use of data being gathered by these softwares. (read more)

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

• Rising hunger looms in Sudan, with little aid in sight, April 1. By Nafisa Eltahir and Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah. Millions more Sudanese are set to go hungry this year as economic turmoil and erratic rains drive up prices and reduce harvests, with a halt to foreign assistance and the war in Ukraine putting food supplies at further risk. (read more)
• Russia’s Lavrov lobbies India after Western emissaries make case for sanctions, April 1. By  Krishna N. Das, Reuters. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov began meetings with India’s leaders in New Delhi on Friday after seeing his Chinese counterpart earlier in the week, as Moscow tries to keep the Asian powers on its side amid Western sanctions. Lavrov’s mission to shore up support from a country Moscow has long-regarded as a friend comes a day after senior U.S. and British officials held talks in New Delhi to persuade the Indian government to avoid undermining sanctions imposed after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. (read more)
• Ukraine unable to get supplies to Mariupol or evacuate civilians – mayor’s aide, April 1. By  Natalia Zinets, Reuters. An aide to the mayor of Mariupol said on Friday the besieged southern Ukrainian city remained closed for anyone trying to enter and was “very dangerous” for anyone trying to leave. (read more)
• What do Americans think of the Russia-Ukraine war and of the US response?, March 31. By Shibley Telhami, Brookings. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has generated much debate in America, not only about what how the U.S. should respond, but also about the extent to which the invasion represents a threat to democracy. There have been questions about the extent to which Russia’s assault has galvanized public support behind NATO, whether the war has ended the post-Cold War era as we have known it, and about the nature of the Biden administration’s response. It has also generated discussion about the degree to which the Russia-Ukraine war has eroded the deep American partisan divide in recent years. I set out to probe public perceptions of these issues in a new poll. (read more)
• Google TAG details cyber activity with regard to the invasion of Ukraine, March 31. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. The Google Threat Analysis Group (TAG) provided an update about nation-state attacks related ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the experts spotted phishing and malware attacks targeting Eastern European and NATO countries, including Ukraine. (read more)
• Anonymous hacked Russian Thozis Corp, but denies attacks on Rosaviatsia, March 31. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. Anonymous continues to target Russian organizations and private foreign businesses the are still operating in the country. The popular collective claims to have hacked the Russian investment firm Thozis Corp, which is owned by the oligarch Zakhar Smushkin. (read more)

• IEA to hold emergency meeting to tackle soaring oil prices, April 1. By Yuka Obayashi, Reuters. The International Energy Agency will hold an emergency meeting on Friday among consuming nations to discuss a new release of strategic reserves alongside a plan by the United States to pump massive supplies starting in May to cool soaring oil prices. (read more)
• Ukraine will soon be able to better protect its skies -envoy to Japan, April 1. By Reuters. (read more)
• Don’t throw Russia out of G20, aid group says, with eye on food crisis, April 1. By Andrea Shalal, Reuters. Excluding Russia from the Group of 20 major economies and other international institutions could slow efforts to address a worsening global food crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, the head of German aid group Welthungerhilfe (WHH) told Reuters. Mathias Mogge, chief executive of the group, which serves 14.3 million people with projects in 35 countries, said it was critical to maintain communication with Russia, one of the world’s largest producers of wheat, in tackling the crisis. (read more)
• U.S. officials circle globe to keep pressure on Putin as rouble rises, April 1. By Andrea Shalal and David Lawder, Reuters. Senior U.S. officials fanned out this week to press world leaders to keep piling pressure on Moscow or join the campaign of sanctions and other measures, as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth week and the initial economic shock to Russia seems to be ebbing. (read more)
• Ukraine negotiations to resume, Europe faces Russia gas deadline, April 1. By Vitalii Hnidyi and Pavel Polityuk, Reuters. European buyers of Russian gas faced a deadline to start paying in roubles on Friday, while negotiations aimed at ending the five-week war were set to resume even as Ukraine braced for further attacks in the south and east. (read more)
• Treasury Department Sanctions Russian Tech, Electronics Firms, March 31. By IndustryWeek. The Treasury Department today slapped new sanctions on 21 entities and 13 individuals associated with the Russian electronics and electronics manufacturing sectors as retaliation for the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The list includes Mikron Co., Russia’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, software communications and hardware companies the Treasury Department says have aided the Russian government and war effort, and government-backed hackers. (read more)
• Additional Sanctions on Russia’s Technology Companies and Cyber Actors, March 31. By US Department of State. The United States will continue to impose severe costs on the Russian Federation in response to President Putin’s illegal war.  Today, we are targeting entities and individuals in our efforts to shut down the Kremlin’s sanctions evasion networks, which play an important role in the Russian Federation’s ability to continue its unconscionable war on the citizens of Ukraine.  This follows our March 15 and March 24 designations of individuals and companies in Russia’s defense-industrial base that are directly supporting Putin’s war machine. (read more)