AFGHANISTAN
What the US and its allies left behind in Afghanistan. Amin Saikal, The Strategist: The Afghanistan war is over for the United States and its allies. But the suffering of the Afghan people has multiplied under the extremist, repressive rule of the Taliban in the name of Islam. No country today is in as much danger of losing half its population to starvation as Afghanistan. Who is responsible for this? What the US and its allies left behind in Afghanistan | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
AFGHANISTAN – PAKISTAN
Pakistan’s Hard Policy Choices in Afghanistan. Crisis Group: Islamabad must tread carefully with its long-time Taliban allies back in power in Kabul. Pitfalls lie ahead for Pakistan’s domestic security and its foreign relations. The Pakistani government should encourage Afghanistan’s new authorities down the path of compromise with international demands regarding rights and counter-terrorism. Pakistan’s Hard Policy Choices in Afghanistan | Crisis Group
AFRICAN UNION
Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2022. Crisis Group: The African Union’s twentieth anniversary in the coming year gives it a chance to assess its achievements as well as reinvigorate its work to safeguard peace and security on the continent. This briefing points to eight conflict situations needing the organisation’s urgent attention. Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2022 | Crisis Group
CHINA
China’s slow path towards science and technology leadership. Kai von Carnap, MERICS: Scientists know their country is not yet a global leader in science and technology, says Kai von Carnap. This is the fifth in a series of short analyses that looks at China’s systemic competition and normative rivalry with the US and the EU. A look beyond the Beijing leadership shows how far debates about the features of political systems and the power to interpret events reach into Chinese society – and possibly shape the country’s actions. China’s slow path towards science and technology leadership | Merics
Xi Jinping and the CCP’s expanding technology agenda. Kai von Carnap, The Strategist: Chinese Communist Party leaders use ‘collective study sessions’ to identify emerging technologies that they can harness politically. Given the merging of civil and military industrial goals in China, the international community needs to recognise the challenges this strategy poses. Huawei, one of tech war’s main supporting actors, recently completed the rollout in China of its new operating system, HarmonyOS 2.0, which aims to reduce China’s dependence on US technology. During his presidency, Donald Trump had turned that dependency into an existential threat. Xi Jinping and the CCP’s expanding technology agenda | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
From Beijing 2008 to Beijing 2022: fourteen years and a world of difference. Keith B. Richburg, The Strategist: When China last hosted the Olympics, in the summer of 2008, the country was a vastly different place. The Beijing 2008 Summer Games was China’s coming-out party to the world. Less than two decades after People’s Liberation Army troops crushed pro-democracy protests at Tiananmen Square, China was eager to show the world how much it had changed. From Beijing 2008 to Beijing 2022: fourteen years and a world of difference | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
CHINA – RUSSIA
Huge impact of ‘fortress economics’ in Russia and China. David Lubin, Chatham House: The main idea behind ‘fortress economics’ is that any country with a terminally bad relationship with the US is well-advised to try to earn more than it spends. Keeping the current account of the balance of payments in surplus is preferable to a deficit which then needs an external funding requirement – because most of that funding is dollar-denominated, which gives Washington leverage. Huge impact of ‘fortress economics’ in Russia and China | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
CHINA – RUSSIA – UKRAINE
What China Is Actually Saying About Russia and Ukraine. Daniel Shats, Peter W. Singer, Defense One: As the Ukraine crisis has progressed and negotiations play out between the U.S. and Russia, many analysts and politicians have weighed in on what role the planet’s other superpower will play. Their concerns have touched on everything from how China might influence Putin’s choices to whether Beijing might even take advantage of a crisis in Europe to follow through on its own threats of aggression toward Taiwan. However, these discussions have often been based more on supposition than the reality of China’s words and actions. What China Is Actually Saying About Russia and Ukraine – Defense One
GERMANY
Can the new German foreign minister make a difference? Ian Kemish, The Interpreter: It is less than two months since Angela Merkel stood down as chancellor of Germany, and a “traffic light” coalition government comprising the Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats was installed in Berlin. We are still getting to know the faces in the new administration. One of them, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, came to international attention for the first time in January as she steered her way with evident confidence through official visits to Kyiv and Moscow amid what is arguably the most dangerous European crisis since the Cold War. Can the new German foreign minister make a difference? | The Interpreter (lowyinstitute.org)
ISRAEL – USA – IRAN
Israel on edge as US reports progress on reviving Iran nuclear deal. Mohammed Ayoob, The Strategist: Much speculation surrounds the negotiations in Vienna aimed at reviving the Iran nuclear deal (formally, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) as they near their final phase. The latest statements emanating out of Washington signal a cautiously optimistic note. According to a senior US State Department official, the negotiations over the past month ‘were among the most intensive that we’ve had to date … [W]e made progress narrowing down the list of differences to just key priorities on all sides. And that’s why now is the time for political decisions.’. Israel on edge as US reports progress on reviving Iran nuclear deal | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
MENA Region
Tackling corruption is focus for MENA in 2022. Tim Eaton, Lina Khatib, Renad Mansour, Sanam Vakil, Chatham House: Tackling entrenched corruption will be a key focus of the political discourse in the Middle East and North Africa in 2022. International policymakers will look to anti-corruption as a framework that can be used to help stabilize conflict countries, support economic reform, or to pressure adversarial regimes. Pressure to deal with corruption also stems from popular anger in countries that suffer from poor governance as corruption can have very serious – even fatal – consequences, as the deadly hospital fires Iraq suffered last year illustrate. Tackling corruption is focus for MENA in 2022 | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
RUSSIA – WEST
Russia Considering Fake Video With ‘Corpses’ As Pretext For Ukrainian Invasion, Pentagon Says. Tara Copp, Defense One: The U.S. believes Russia may be planning to release a fake video showing an attack by Ukraine to justify an invasion, U.S. officials said Thursday. “We do have information that it is, that the Russians are likely to want to fabricate a pretext for an invasion, which, again, is right out of their playbook,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Thursday. “One option is the Russian government, we think, is planning to stage a fake attack by Ukrainian military or intelligence forces against Russian sovereign territory, or against Russian-speaking people, to therefore justify their action” to launch further military operations inside Ukraine. Russia Considering Fake Video With ‘Corpses’ As Pretext For Ukrainian Invasion, Pentagon Says – Defense One
SOUTHEAST ASIA – SOUTH CHINA SEA
Navigating the limits in the South China Sea. David Letts, Donald R Rothwel, The Interpreter: Barely noticed, but nevertheless of some international legal consequence, is the latest effort by the United States to cast doubt upon the legality of Chinese maritime claims in the South China Sea. Unlike the more prominent and headline grabbing US Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) involving US warships asserting navigational rights in the area, on this occasion the United States has reverted to a long standing publication founded on international law to express its view. Navigating the limits in the South China Sea | The Interpreter (lowyinstitute.org)
Boosting maritime law enforcement in Southeast Asia and the South China Sea. Michael Heazle, The Strategist: Five and a half years on from the international arbitral tribunal’s rejection of China’s expansive South China Sea claims in July 2016, the international maritime order in East Asia clearly is in trouble. China is continuing to consolidate its control over the Paracel Islands and most of the Spratleys group and is increasing its encroachments on the recognised exclusive economic zones of most of the South China Sea’s littoral states with relative impunity. The Philippines and Vietnam in particular have suffered numerous Chinese incursions, and Indonesia’s Natuna Islands and more recently Malaysia’s EEZ have been targeted in China’s bid to control the southern waters of the first island chain. Boosting maritime law enforcement in Southeast Asia and the South China Sea | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
UK – EUROPEAN STRATEGIC AUTONOMY
The UK must not dismiss European ‘strategic autonomy’. Alice Billon-Galland, Hans Kundnani, Richard G. Whitman, Chatham House: The concept of ‘European strategic autonomy’ has taken a hit as Europeans have been sidelined and the European Union (EU) has struggled to make itself relevant in the current standoff with Russia over Ukraine. With NATO’s new Strategic Concept and the EU’s first Strategic Compass, 2022 was meant to be the year of European security strategies. But the conflict at the Ukrainian border has been a reality check about what role the EU can today play in European security. Conversely, the Ukraine crisis has amplified the UK’s role as a security provider for Europe through NATO as well as bilateral and minilateral arrangements such as the new Ukraine-Poland-UK trilateral format or, beyond the current crisis, London’s leadership of the ten-nation Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF). The UK’s diplomatic energy and assertive action on the Ukraine situation – supplying military equipment, training, and increasing force deployments – have been widely acknowledged. The UK must not dismiss European ‘strategic autonomy’ | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
UK INTELLIGENCE – RUSSIA – UKRAINE
To Brief, Or Not to Brief: UK Intelligence and Public Disclosure. Dan Lomas, RUSI: The UK government’s recent release of information on Moscow’s intentions in Ukraine is not the first time intelligence has been released as evidence, and raises questions about who delivers the message and what information should be used. To Brief, Or Not to Brief: UK Intelligence and Public Disclosure | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
UKRAINE – AUSTRALIA
Why events around Ukraine matter for Australia. Dmytro Kuleba, The Strategist: Australia is a consistent supporter of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This support has always been bipartisan. Two like-minded nations, Ukraine and Australia champion world order based on international law. Australia’s respect for international law and the primacy of sovereign borders, human rights and freedom of navigation led it to a principled stance on Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014, together with all Western democracies. Why events around Ukraine matter for Australia | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
USA – RUSSIA
Does Biden’s Russia policy need a bigger dose of realism? Joseph S. Nye, Project-Syndicate, The Strategist: Was the current crisis in Ukraine caused by a lack of realism in US foreign policy? According to some analysts, the liberal desire to spread democracy is what drove NATO’s expansion up to Russia’s borders, causing Russian President Vladimir Putin to feel increasingly threatened. Viewed from this perspective, it’s not surprising that he would respond by demanding a sphere of influence analogous to what the United States once claimed in Latin America with its Monroe Doctrine. Does Biden’s Russia policy need a bigger dose of realism? | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
YEMEN
How Yemen’s War Economy Undermines Peace Efforts. An explainer by Crisis Group: How Yemen’s War Economy Undermines Peace Efforts | International Crisis Group
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