Global news and analyses from global think tanks (23 july 2026)

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GLOBAL NEWS

Afghanistan

(UN News) Flash floods have killed at least 26 people across eastern Afghanistan, including 23 in the mountainous province of Nuristan, where homes, markets and roads were swept away and search teams continued looking for people reported missing. The flooding, triggered by heavy rainfall on 20 July, also claimed the lives of three Afghan refugees at a returnee transit camp near the Torkham border crossing with Pakistan, while nine others were injured, according to the UN relief coordination office, OCHA. The worst devastation was reported in Parun City, the capital of Nuristan province, where a sudden flash flood struck at about 3pm local time, overwhelming residential neighbourhoods and commercial areas. Preliminary assessments indicate that at least 22 houses were destroyed and another 45 severely damaged. Four bridges, six sections of road, irrigation canals and flood protection walls also sustained extensive damage, disrupting access to affected communities. – Deadly Afghanistan floods kill at least 26 as aid agencies race to reach survivors | UN News

Iran 

(RFE/RL’s Radio Farda – RFE/RL) Iran executed a man it accused of carrying out “operational actions” during nationwide protests at the start of the year as the country’s leadership ratchets up its crackdown on dissent, sparking a hunger strike among hundreds of death row inmates. The Iranian judiciary’s official Mizan news agency said ⁠26-year-old law graduate Mehdi Khaneki was executed on July 22 for alleged weapons offenses and actions that “benefited” Israel, the United States, and “hostile groups”. The Paris-based National Council ‌of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the political arm of Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), disputed the charges, saying Khaneki was hanged because of his membership in the group and participating in protests in the city of Karaj. – Iran Continues Executions Amid Protest By Death Row Inmates

Nicaragua

(UN News) The UN human rights chief Volker Türk on Wednesday condemned new threats from Nicaragua’s co-president Daniel Ortega to hinder civil rights and prevent dissenting individuals and groups from participating in elections. Mr. Ortega said on Sunday that the country would no longer hold elections, which were scheduled for next year. In his statement, the High Commissioner did not directly address the threat of cancelling the national poll, but broadly deplored Mr. Ortega’s restrictions on political freedoms. The co-president’s announcement builds on a series of troubling developments in Nicaragua, where the Government recently revoked lawyers’ credentials with no explanation and currently is detaining 46 individuals arbitrarily for political reasons, according to the UN’s human rights office (OHCHR). “These latest developments further deepen the severe restrictions on fundamental freedoms, the dismantling of civic space, and the steady erosion of the rule of law,” Mr. Türk said. The human rights chief maintained that political dissidents must be released and that they must be allowed to participate in the political process, in line with Nicaragua’s international human rights obligations. – Nicaragua continues to weaken political freedoms, UN warns | UN News

US

(Rebecca Falconer – Axios) Threats against people the U.S. Secret Service protects are up about 40% from a year ago, the agency says, as it prepares for Friday’s rescheduled White House Correspondents’ Dinner. The surge is forcing the Secret Service to devote more agents and investigative resources to protecting senior government officials, potentially straining other protective operations. The Secret Service says it has investigated roughly 10,000 threat cases so far this year, about halfway through the year. “We are seeing a roughly 40% increase from this time compared to last year,” Secret Service spokesperson Anthony Guglielmi tells Axios. Mental health interventions have increased tenfold from the same period last year, including referrals and both voluntary and involuntary commitments involving people encountered during its protective mission, he says in an email. – Secret Service threat investigations up 40% from last year

(Joann Muller – Axios) Tesla’s massive investments in humanoid robots, self-driving cars and AI chips are hurting profits, but the company says it’ll all pay off down the line. CEO Elon Musk indicated he’s “never been more optimistic about the future,” but acknowledged the investments could lead to uneven results. Tesla revenue jumped on record vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, but the company saw a significant dip in operating profit because of its heavy spending on R&D. Tesla plans to spend more than $25 billion on capital investments this year, and that spending rate will grow over the the next two or three years, CFO Vaibhav Taneja told investors and analysts on a call late Wednesday. Additionally, Tesla plans to borrow as much as $30 billion to accelerate its investments in robotaxis, Optimus robots, semiconductors, solar manufacturing and AI compute infrastructure, he said. – Tesla’s push into AI and robotics is proving costly

US – Ukraine

(Alex Raufoglu – RFE/RL) Ukraine and the United States have signed a bilateral statement of intent that lays the groundwork for an unprecedented defense partnership, allowing Ukrainian combat drones to be exported to the United States for military testing, according to two sources familiar with the agreement who spoke to RFE/RL. “The deal has been sealed,” one official told RFE/RL, while a second source confirmed that the document had been “signed by both sides”. The bilateral statement of intent establishes the framework for future drone cooperation and represents the first agreement of its kind between the two countries, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The move marks a significant breakthrough after months of negotiations over deeper defense-industrial cooperation, as the Pentagon seeks rapid access to Ukrainian battlefield innovations developed during more than four years of full-scale war with Russia. – Exclusive: US, Ukraine Reach Breakthrough Agreement On Drone Cooperation

War in Iran – Middle East – Gulf 

(AFP/Al Arabiya) An Israeli civilian killed two Palestinians in the occupied West Bank on Thursday after they allegedly stabbed another Israeli who was trying to extinguish a wildfire near a settlement, the military said. Violence in the West Bank, a Palestinian territory occupied by Israel since 1967, has escalated since the start of the war in Gaza. “Earlier today, a fire broke out in the area adjacent to the community of Itamar. During the extinguishing attempts, two terrorists stabbed an Israeli civilian,” the military said. – Army says Israeli killed two West Bank Palestinians behind stabbing

(Al Arabiya) Oman said on Thursday it is coordinating with Saudi Arabia, Yemeni parties and the UN special envoy for Yemen to resume the political track aimed at achieving security and stability in the region, according to a foreign ministry statement. – Oman says it is working with Saudi Arabia, Yemeni parties and UN to resume political track

(Al Arabiya) US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would hold Iran accountable for any attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants. A Saudi-owned vessel, the ENCELIA, was targeted while sailing in the Red Sea, resulting in a fire at the bow of the vessel, Saudi state news agency (SPA) reported on Thursday, citing an official source at the Transport General Authority (TGA). – Trump says US will hold Iran accountable for Houthi attacks

(Al Arabiya) US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday that Iran will continue to pay a high price until it comes back to its “senses,” adding that the Iranians didn’t seem to ready to make a deal again. His comments come as the United States continues consecutive nights of attacks on Iran, with US President Donald Trump vowing on Wednesday to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant every time Iran targets a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. – Rubio says Iran will pay a ‘high price’ until it comes back to its ‘senses’

(Al Arabiya) Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said Thursday they stopped three oil tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as the United States and Iran vie for control over the vital waterway. In recent weeks, Iran has hit tankers using a route hugging the Omani coast to traverse the strait, in a bid to strongarm vessels into using its own waters and pay for safe passage. – Iran says stopped three oil tankers transiting Strait of Hormuz

(Al Arabiya) A Saudi-owned vessel, the ENCELIA, was targeted while sailing in the Red Sea, resulting in a fire at the bow of the vessel, Saudi state news agency (SPA) reported on Thursday, citing an official source at the Transport General Authority (TGA). – Saudi-owned vessel targeted in Red Sea, crew safe, state news agency says

(Al Arabiya) The US military said in a statement on Thursday it completed its latest round of strikes on Iran at President Donald Trump’s direction, for a 12th successive night of American attacks. “US forces struck Iranian military targets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites, and air defense assets,” the US Central Command said in a statement. – US military completes 12th straight night of strikes on Iran

(Barak Ravid – Axios) The U.S. military used a B-1 long-range bomber on Tuesday to strike Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran, U.S. officials said. It was the first time the U.S. conducted a B-1 mission since fighting with Iran resumed 12 days ago. Using B-1 bombers, which can carry two dozen 2,000-lb. bombs or dozens of cruise missiles, signaled a significant escalation and expansion of the U.S. military campaign. The B-1 can fly faster than the speed of sound at low altitudes while carrying the largest bomb load of any type of bomber. Amid a continued U.S. military build up in the region, President Trump is still considering returning to major combat operations against Iran. U.S. and Israeli officials say this could happen within days. The B-1 launched its mission from an airbase in the UK and was spotted on online plane tracking websites. – U.S. deploys B-1 bomber as attacks on Iran intensify

(UN News) As months of conflict continue to devastate communities across Lebanon, families are being left without shelter, healthcare and other essential services. Independent human rights experts, appointed by the UN Human Rights Council, warned on Wednesday that civilians are paying a “devastating and disproportionate toll,” with homes destroyed, entire towns cut off and many communities in southern Lebanon still inaccessible. As a result, thousands of displaced people remain unable to return home. More than 4,300 people have reportedly been killed since 2 March, including 392 women and 253 children, while more than 12,000 have been injured. “Evacuation is an exceptional and strictly temporary measure. It may only be used to protect the safety of civilians or for imperative military reasons, not to depopulate and occupy areas,” the experts said, stressing that displacement should only ever be used as a temporary measure to protect civilians. They added that civilians “have the right to return voluntarily and safely to their homes once the circumstances justifying their displacement have ceased.” – Thousands prevented from returning home to southern Lebanon | UN News

Critical Minerals

(UN News) The world’s shift to clean energy is driving huge demand for critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper. Digging them out of the ground may be the most straightforward part of the process. Around the world, the United Nations is helping countries make sure these valuable resources create decent jobs, protect the environment and benefit local communities – not just global supply chains. – From lithium to nickel: How the UN is helping countries make the most of critical minerals | UN News

Tech World, Cybersecurity and Surveillance

(DigWatch) The UN’s permanent cyber mechanism continued its substantive work by focusing on how international law should be applied in cyberspace, with member states broadly agreeing that the priority is no longer whether international law applies, but how to translate that consensus into practical implementation. During the fifth substantive plenary session of the Global Mechanism on Developments in the Field of ICTs in the Context of International Security, delegations reaffirmed that international law, including the UN Charter, applies to state conduct in cyberspace. Discussions instead centred on deepening common understanding through scenario-based exchanges, legal capacity development, and practical implementation within the mechanism’s Dedicated Thematic Groups (DTGs). While some states continued to advocate for new legally binding international instruments, the prevailing view was that the immediate priority should be strengthening the implementation of the existing legal framework and helping all countries participate meaningfully in its development. – UN Global Mechanism on ICT security shifts focus to implementing international law in cyberspace | Digital Watch Observatory

(DigWatch) China has launched a nationwide programme to establish national-level zero-carbon factories, extending its industrial decarbonisation strategy to both manufacturing and computing facilities as part of its broader climate and digital development agenda. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the initiative will encourage manufacturers and computing facilities to reduce carbon dioxide emissions within their operations to near-zero levels through technological innovation, structural optimisation and improved management. – China launches zero-carbon factory programme for industry and computing | Digital Watch Observatory

(Danny Palmer – Infosecurity Magazine) Two-thirds of organizations have delayed or cancelled deployment of Microsoft Copilot over concerns that the AI-powered assistant could expose confidential data, a survey of security leaders has revealed. CoreView’s State of Microsoft 365 Security and Governance 2026 report, published on 21 July, suggested that there are widespread security concerns around deployment of Copilot. One worry is that deploying Microsoft Copilot AI could expose confidential SharePoint data. Much of this revolves around a data governance problem in organizations, particularly when it comes to SharePoint. – Microsoft Copilot Deployments Delayed Over Security Concerns – Infosecurity Magazine

(Kevin Poireault) Iranian cyber adversaries are actively targeting internet-exposed industrial systems across brands like Rockwell Automation, Allen-Bradley, Schneider Electric and Siemens. In an advisory update published on July 22, the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said the FBI had observed Iran-affiliated cyber threat actors download a malicious project file to a targeted programmable logic controller (PLC) at a US-based critical infrastructure organization using configuration software. The Bureau also saw the manipulation of data on human machine interface (HMI) and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) displays, resulting in operational disruption and financial loss. Further analysis indicated the project file retained ladder logic for downstream function but added logic that overrode specific instruction sets responsible for maintaining safe operating parameters in the victim’s environment. – Iranian Hackers Target Siemens and Schneider Industrial Systems – Infosecurity Magazine

(Danny Palmer – Infosecurity Magazine) The rapid adoption of enterprise AI tools is the fastest-growing source of new exposure for businesses, and it puts them at risk to additional cyber threats, a new report has warned. Published on July 22, the Sophos AI Security 2026 Report, warned that AI identities have become a new attack surface as AI agents and assistants are adopted in the workplace. Employees have deployed coding agents, agentic AI assistants, LLMs and other tools to help them with their work. It has become common for the agents to receive privileged access to core systems to aid with their efficiency. – AI Agents Now the Enterprises Fastest Growing Exposed Attack Surface – Infosecurity Magazine

(Beth Maundrill – Infosecurity Magazine) A newly discovered Windows infostealer and remote access trojan (RAT), dubbed Dolphin X, is using an AI-powered profiling system to help cybercriminals identify their most valuable victims, according to researchers at Varonis Threat Labs. Advertised on a cybercrime forum, the malware is designed to target more than 300 applications and steal a wide range of sensitive data, including cryptocurrency wallets, .env files, SSH keys, cloud tokens and DevOps credentials. However, researchers said Dolphin X’s standout feature is an “AI Profiler” that automatically ranks infected users based on factors such as application usage, browsing activity and installed software. – New Dolphin X Stealer Employs AI Profiling to Prioritize Targets – Infosecurity Magazine

(Danny Palmer – Infosecurity Magazine) The rise of AI tooling as part of the attacker playbook has become a significant factor in why ransomware attacks have become harder to detect until it is too late. According to a global survey of cybersecurity professionals by Proofpoint, of those organizations which have been hit by a ransomware attack, almost two thirds (65%) said that AI increased the effectiveness of the attack. The AI tools did this by helping cybercriminals to produce more convincing phishing emails, impersonation attacks and credential theft campaigns. – Two-Thirds of Ransomware Victims Say AI Boosted Attack Effectiveness – Infosecurity Magazine

(DigWatch) London Mayor Sadiq Khan has backed a £30 million programme to help workers and businesses prepare for AI-driven labour market changes, following recommendations from the London AI and Jobs Taskforce. The taskforce concluded that mass unemployment is not inevitable but warned that governments, employers and educators must act early. It estimated that around 600,000 Londoners work in occupations with high exposure to AI but limited capacity to adapt. Many of these workers are employed in clerical and administrative roles, are disproportionately women and earn below the London average. – London launches £30 million plan to prepare workers for AI | Digital Watch Observatory

(DigWatch) Wistron has opened a $700 million AI manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas, to produce advanced NVIDIA computing systems, strengthening domestic capacity for the AI infrastructure underpinning large-scale AI. The 324,000-square-foot facility is Wistron’s first manufacturing facility in the United States. It currently operates one production line for NVIDIA’s GB300 Grace Blackwell Ultra Superchip, with a second line planned for the upcoming Vera Rubin platform. Wistron expects output to reach tens of thousands of boards per month during 2026. More than 500 jobs have already been created, with the workforce expected to grow to 1,000 by the end of the year. – NVIDIA and Wistron open $700 million AI chip factory in Texas | Digital Watch Observatory

(DigWatch) Singapore’s Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA) and the International Association of Privacy Professionals (IAPP) have signed a three-year agreement to expand AI governance training, reflecting growing demand for professionals who can oversee the safe and responsible deployment of AI. The Memorandum of Intent aims to equip regulators, industry leaders and practitioners with the skills needed to address increasingly complex issues related to AI governance, responsible data use and emerging technology regulation. – Singapore expands AI governance training partnership with IAPP | Digital Watch Observatory

(DigWatch) Singapore is sharpening its AI strategy with a stronger emphasis on accelerating business adoption, expanding AI skills and strengthening governance, as the country seeks to translate AI capabilities into broader economic impact. Speaking at IBM Think on Tour Singapore, Minister Josephine Teo said the updated approach builds on the National AI Strategy by narrowing the gap between widespread individual AI use and slower enterprise adoption. Initiatives include the National AI Impact Programme, AI training for digital leaders, support for AI ‘bilinguals’ who combine domain expertise with AI knowledge, and expanded compute resources for organisations developing tailored AI applications. – Singapore expands AI strategy to accelerate enterprise adoption and workforce skills | Digital Watch Observatory

(Sam Sabin – Axios) Frontier AI models are getting scary good at breaking rules in ways their creators didn’t anticipate. Forget AGI and superintelligence timelines. Today’s models are already slipping past guardrails, carrying out sophisticated, multistep cyberattacks and — in at least one case — compromising real-world infrastructure, sometimes before their creators know what happened. OpenAI said Tuesday that GPT-5.6 Sol and “an even more capable pre-release model” carried out last week’s AI-led cyberattack on Hugging Face. OpenAI says its models were asked to solve a hacking challenge during pre-deployment testing and went to extreme lengths to win. The models decided on their own to break out of their walled testing environment, inferring that Hugging Face — a popular platform for hosting AI models and datasets — might hold the test’s answers. The models used stolen credentials and additional vulnerabilities to gain access to part of Hugging Face’s production infrastructure. What they’re saying: Clément Delangue, co-founder and CEO of Hugging Face, called the incident an “attack unlike anything we’ve seen before” and praised OpenAI for its partnership as the companies investigate what happened. – OpenAI’s Hugging Face breach exposes a new AI safety challenge

(DigWatch) India is expanding its BHASHINI language AI platform to Goa, where it will support digital public services in Konkani and other Indian languages as part of the country’s broader multilingual digital public infrastructure strategy. BHASHINI provides AI-powered translation, speech recognition, text-to-speech and transliteration, enabling government platforms and digital services to operate across multiple Indian languages. The platform supports applications in healthcare, education, tourism and citizen services, helping make public services more accessible across linguistic communities. India expands BHASHINI to support multilingual AI for digital public services | Digital Watch Observatory

(DigWatch) Google has launched Gemini 3.6 Flash, describing it as a faster and more efficient model for developers building AI agents, coding tools and enterprise workflows while reducing the cost of deploying AI at scale. According to Google, the model uses 17% fewer output tokens than Gemini 3.5 Flash on the Artificial Analysis Index and requires fewer reasoning steps and tool calls for multi-stage tasks, reducing the cost of running production AI agents. – Google launches Gemini 3.6 Flash for more efficient AI agents | Digital Watch Observatory

ANALYSES FROM GLOBAL THINK TANKS

Central Asia

(The Jamestown Foundation) New hydropower and renewable energy projects are expanding Central Asia’s energy capacity, strengthening domestic energy security while positioning the region as a hub for global energy markets. Central Asia is moving beyond its traditional role as a raw material supplier, positioning itself as an energy hub for alternative sources and supply chains as Europe seeks to diversify energy supplies amid Russia’s war against Ukraine. While attracting investment from multiple external partners, Central Asian states remain committed to a pragmatic, multivector approach that maximizes geoeconomic benefits. – Central Asia Maintains Multivector Approach for Alternative Energy Projects – Jamestown

China

(Sunny Cheung, Shijie Wang – The Jamestown Foundation) Xi Jinping signaled Beijing’s desire to shape the global governance of artificial intelligence (AI) standards in a July 17 keynote at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai. He also unveiled a new institution, the World AI Cooperation Organization, which will anchor those efforts in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The PRC is seeking to embed its preferred security and governance objectives into global standards by first targeting global south countries, offering training programs, making Chinese AI models available, and providing draft templates for nations attempting to regulate AI. Xi’s speech and the presence at WAIC of leading robotics companies underscore the prioritization of integrating AI with hardware, as well as the need to cultivate export markets for the country’s intelligent manufactures. – Xi Pursues AI Governance Leadership at Beijing Summit – Jamestown

Middle Corridor

(Emil Avdaliani – The Jamestown Foundation) The Middle Corridor is expanding through new transit agreements, railway links, and the development of Georgia’s Anaklia Deep Sea Port, strengthening its role as an alternative route between Central Asia and Europe. The corridor has gained strategic importance amid the war against Ukraine, the conflict in Iran, and the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process, including the U.S.-led Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) initiative. These developments have highlighted a major security gap. Azerbaijan has pushed for greater security cooperation among Turkic states through the Organization of Turkic States, arguing that a defensive component could help protect the route from external threats. – Middle Corridor Development Lacks Security Component – Jamestown

Ukraine – Poland – Russia

(Alexander Neuman – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shifted away from his cautious approach to sensitive historical narratives about 20th-century Ukrainian nationalists in recent months, honoring an Organization for Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) faction leader and renaming a special operations unit the “Heroes of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA)”. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, many Ukrainians have increasingly emphasized the UPA’s armed struggle against Moscow, while Poland condemns its role in the 1943–1945 Volhynia and Eastern Galicia ethnic cleansing, in which Ukrainian nationalist forces killed tens of thousands of Polish civilians. Polish President Karol Nawrocki withdrew Zelenskyy’s Order of the White Eagle award in June and warned that unresolved historical issues could affect Ukraine’s EU accession. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk urged both sides to avoid escalating tensions. Russia exploited Ukrainian–Polish tensions in July through information operations, including possible provocations by Russian intelligence and the Federal Security Service’s (FSB’s) release of supposed archival documents on UPA crimes, seeking to diminish Polish support for Ukraine. – Moscow Exploits Poland–Ukraine Dispute Over OUN and UPA Legacy – Jamestown

US – Cuba

(The Soufan Center) The U.S. State Department just released a report titled “Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism,” reviewing alleged Cuban spying efforts and support of “radical left” groups in the U.S., raising speculation that Washington could be seeking public support for a potential military intervention against Cuba. This report surfaces just days after a CBS investigation reported that senior U.S. military planners have been exploring several intervention options on the Caribbean island, citing anonymous Pentagon officials. The Trump administration’s approach to Cuba has evolved throughout this year, first adopting a pragmatic approach to incentivize political and economic reforms through diplomatic engagement, evolving into a strategy that stresses American military might and espionage capabilities. While the U.S. is unlikely to enter into twin, simultaneous wars with both Cuba and Iran, recent posturing with Cuba indicates that the Trump administration could be laying the groundwork for intervention once a revised memorandum of understanding (MoU) is achieved with Iran. – The U.S. Waits Out the Iran War, Eyeing Potential Intervention in Cuba – The Soufan Center

US – Latin America

(Jose Antonio Gonzalez Anaya, Martin Cassinelli – Atlantic Council) Much is known about China’s investments in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but less is known about where the region’s largest investor—the US—invests, and what impact its dollars have. A new analysis of US investment in the region shows a heterogeneous profile spanning energy, digital infrastructure, manufacturing, and services, concentrated primarily in Mexico, Brazil, and Guyana, with a growing tilt toward energy and digital investment in recent years. US investment generates more jobs per dollar invested in LAC than other countries’ investments, funds more research and development in LAC, links to local companies across the supply chain, and transfers managerial best practices to the local workforce. – Mapping US investment in Latin America and the Caribbean – Atlantic Council

US – Saudi Arabia

(Atlantic Council) The news has set off a reaction. On Tuesday evening, The Wall Street Journal reported that US President Donald Trump had approved a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia. The 123 agreement—named after Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act—would allow the US to transfer civilian nuclear material, technology, and equipment to Saudi Arabia. While dozens of countries have 123 agreements with the United States, the new deal with Riyadh reportedly might allow for uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia—which could be used to make nuclear weapons, raising the issue of nonproliferation. – Experts react: Reading between the lines of the new US-Saudi nuclear agreement – Atlantic Council

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