Sources: Council on Foreign Relations; Jamestown Foundation; Lowy The Interpreter; Soufan Center
China
(Brandon Tran, Gerui ZhangXi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign in the military is far from over. A front-page PLA Daily commentary declared 2026 the “year of decisive battle” against graft in the ranks, and Xi’s appointment of a new disciplinary head as he rebuilds the Central Military Commission (CMC) before any other members signals that personnel investigations are his highest priority. A new round of purges appears focused on dismantling the patronage network built around the former vice chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia. The purges target groups that have been relatively insulated from anti-graft probes to date, namely the PLA Air Force and the Western Theater Command. The ongoing disappearance of Wang Haijiang, the sole remaining active PLA general known to have fought in the Sino–Vietnamese War, also underscores Xi’s preference for personal loyalty over experience and expertise. – Xi Purges Six More PLA Generals – Jamestown
China – US
(David Saultry, Minran Liu – Lowy The Interpreter) Having last month designated Taiwan and surrounding areas as “coastal waters”, China’s confidence in pursuing reunification has been on full display. The alleged inspection of 198 vessels around Taiwan and potential mapping of undersea cables, supported by Chinese law enforcement vessels, shows Beijing is not asking for permission. Pair this with President Xi Jinping’s security partnership pledge to Cambodia — and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen’s statement that his nation would resolutely support “complete national reunification” as the “international landscape evolves” — and it is clear China is shaping the region on its own terms. Beijing has settled on an identity as a peer power, entitled to shape the rules and institutions of the international order in its favour, alongside Washington or despite it. Chinese policymakers increasingly share a coherent understanding of China’s place in the world and where it is headed. That identity has been pursued aggressively long before June. Beijing has weaponised its dominance of critical minerals, restricting rare earth exports to pressure Washington and Tokyo. Its forces have rehearsed a blockade of Taiwan with live fire and exclusion zones meant to deter American intervention. Its state hackers are pre-positioned inside US water, power and communications networks. – In the face of Chinese certainty, America offers confusion | Lowy Institute
Indonesia
(Fran Witt, Ashley Siagian, Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat – Lowy The Interpreter) The architecture of international development finance is under strain. Confidence in the post-war Bretton Woods institutions has weakened across much of the developing world while geopolitical fragmentation and intensifying strategic competition have complicated access to traditional sources of capital. Against this backdrop, Indonesia’s decision(Opens in new window) to join the New Development Bank (NDB) in January 2026, accompanied by a US$1 billion capital commitment(Opens in new window) over seven years, deserves attention not merely as a financial transaction but as a strategic statement. The NDB operates on a different principle to the Bretton Woods institutions: countries must become shareholders by contributing capital before they can access financing. This membership-based model gives borrowing countries a greater stake in the institution’s governance while aligning access to capital with ownership. For Indonesia, the US$1 billion commitment is therefore not merely a fee for entry but an investment in securing long-term access to an alternative development-finance architecture. – The sovereignty hedge: Indonesia’s $1 billion bet on the New Development Bank | Lowy Institute
NATO
(The Soufan Center) As leaders descend upon Ankara for the 2026 NATO Summit, several points of friction between NATO members have raised serious questions about what this year’s gathering will achieve. As popular terminology in Washington shifts away from “burden-sharing” and increasingly towards “burden-shifting,” European NATO allies are acutely aware of expectations from the U.S. to not only increase their defense spending, but to work towards a truly independent defense architecture. As NATO allies gird themselves for U.S. military drawdowns across Europe, Africa, and the Middle East many leaders are seeking clarity from Washington over the next two days — specifics on what the pullback will look like, where it will occur, and on what timeline, so they can plan how to fill the resulting gaps and build up the capabilities. Ankara is also positioned to play an important mediating role in the widening transatlantic rift, European nations recognize they must tap into Türkiye’s military capabilities as they reduce their reliance on the U.S., something they have resisted in the past. – NATO Heads to Ankara with Its Unity in Question – The Soufan Center
Russia – Ukraine
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia compressed its schedule of mass missile attacks, launching major strikes on Kyiv on July 2 and July 7 after stockpiling weapons during May and June. The campaign comes as Russia faces record casualties, declining public support, worsening economic conditions, and strong European resolve to expand military aid for Ukraine. Despite Kyiv’s vulnerability to ballistic missiles, Russia has not dramatically increased their use because Ukrainian strikes have disrupted missile production and supply chains. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s much-publicized Oreshnik missile has also failed to become a regular operational weapon. The Kremlin paired the July attacks with exaggerated battlefield claims and messaging aimed at the July North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit, portraying the strikes as retaliation while falsely touting the capture of Kostyantynivka. – Putin Intensifies Missile Attacks Against Kyiv Ahead of NATO Summit – Jamestown
US – Iran
(The Soufan Center) The U.S.-Iran peace process is stalled as both sides battle for strategic leverage, setting the stage for a “no war, no peace” mutually hurting stalemate. Iran is insisting on U.S. acquiescence to its control over the Strait of Hormuz and substantial sanctions relief before offering nuclear concessions, frustrating the U.S. from achieving the central goals of the war effort. The Trump team is attempting to empower Iran’s moderate leaders by offering full sanctions relief and global investment in exchange for abandoning the core tenets of the regime’s revolutionary ideology. The regime is using the week-long funeral ceremonies for the slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to showcase its resilience, but his son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, remains unseen, clouding Western assessments of Iranian decision-making. – Minefields Obstruct the Road to U.S.-Iran Peace – The Soufan Center
US – Ukraine
(Jonathan Masters, Will Merrow – Council on Foreign Relations) After Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Ukraine became by far the top recipient of U.S. foreign aid, marking the first time a European country held the top spot since the Marshall Plan directed vast sums to rebuild the continent after World War II. Yet, U.S. commitment to Ukraine has been called into question under the second Trump administration and there has been no significant aid legislation since 2024. – Here’s How Much Aid the United States Has Sent Ukraine | Council on Foreign Relations
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