Sources: ASPI The Strategist; Atlantic Council; Axios; Crisis Group; DigWatch; Just Security; Lawfare; The Jamestown Foundation; The Soufan Center
China
(Alex Colville – ASPI The Strategist) New job postings from DeepSeek show the Chinese AI lab plans to build an agentic model that can find vulnerabilities in code. These details, buried in a hiring round, show DeepSeek’s new strategy following the attention garnered by a US model with such capabilities, Anthropic’s Mythos. DeepSeek has listed dozens of roles as part of a June commitment to nearly double its workforce. An ASPI analysis of the postings shows the company shifting from being a research-oriented lab to a commercially oriented AI developer, with stronger international ambitions and heavier investment in frontier models. These include a planned ‘code agent’ trained by data engineers who can ‘discover attack surfaces and construct attack paths in real-world products’, according to one listing. The hiring spree comes after DeepSeek raised US$7.4 billion last month in its first funding round – prompted, according to a report from news website The Information, by a sense of shock inside the company at the April release of Mythos, which can identify cybersecurity vulnerabilities and engage in offensive cyberattacks. – Job ads show DeepSeek aims for an AI agent with cybersecurity capabilities | The Strategist
Europe – Türkiye
(Fuad Shahbazov – The Jamestown Foundation) The European Union is expanding energy cooperation with Türkiye as geopolitical instability in the Middle East, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the blockade of the Hormuz Strait intensify efforts to diversify Europe’s energy supplies and strengthen long-term energy security. Türkiye is leveraging its pipeline network, storage capacity, and position on the Southern Gas Corridor to establish itself as Europe’s principal energy transit hub, facilitating greater access to Azerbaijani, Turkmen, and other regional natural gas supplies. Ankara’s broader strategy combines natural gas transit, electricity exports, and infrastructure investment to enhance its geopolitical influence while reducing Europe’s reliance on Russian energy and increasing resilience against future regional supply disruptions. – Türkiye and Europe Seek to Expand Energy Cooperation – Jamestown
Moldova – Gagauzia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moldova is seeking to restrict further the autonomy of Gagauzia, its Christian Turkic region, ahead of a July 7 Constitutional Court ruling that would strip the region of its remaining self-governance rights under the 1994 accord, including control over its own elections. Chisinau frames this crackdown as necessary because Gagauz leaders have grown closer to Moscow. This move risks backfiring on Chisinau by slowing Moldova’s European Union accession process, strengthening arguments for union with Romania, and hardening Gagauz demands for independence under the 1994 framework. Moldova’s internal affairs appear likely to escalate into a wider crisis, potentially sparking tensions in eastern Europe and even leading to a military clash between Russia and Romania, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member state. – Moldova’s Moves to Limit Gagauz Autonomy Could Destabilize Southeastern Europe – Jamestown
NATO
(Olga Oliker – Crisis Group) On 7-8 July, when NATO member state leaders meet in Ankara for the alliance’s 2026 summit, they will be keen to project calm and continuity at a turbulent moment in transatlantic relations. To that end, much of the proceedings will be reminiscent of their recent annual gatherings. They are expected to announce progress on European members’ spending commitments and defence industrial ramp-ups that will increase these states’ share of responsibility for the continent’s security. Türkiye, like many past hosts, will be keen to underline its strategic importance and showcase its defence industry to its allies. Many allies also hope to announce plans for continued aid to Ukraine, now in its fifth year of war resisting Russia’s all-out invasion. But the summit participants will be on tenterhooks nevertheless, with many allies worried that all this business could be derailed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump has lately stepped up his longstanding criticism of NATO allies, lambasting them for what he views as their inadequate support for Washington in its war of choice, alongside Israel, with Iran. His broadsides come on top of announcements that Washington will soon withdraw more U.S. troops and weapons from Europe. Not for the first time, Trump has been speculating about pulling the United States out of NATO entirely. – What to Expect at the NATO Summit | International Crisis Group
(Ian Brzezinski and Philippe Dickinson – Atlantic Council) With its “NATO 3.0” approach, the Trump administration wants to shift more responsibility for Europe’s defense to European allies and reduce the US military presence in Europe and its commitments to NATO war plans. At the upcoming Ankara summit, European allies should underscore their increased defense spending and their tangible contributions to shared security. Despite current tensions and concerns about the Alliance, US public and congressional support for NATO remains strong. – Europe should take the long bet on the US and the transatlantic security relationship – Atlantic Council
(John Drennan, Ariane Tabatabai – Lawfare) When NATO leaders gather in Ankara this July, they will do so in the shadow of a recent U.S. announcement that will cast a shadow over the discussions: The United States has moved to reduce its contributions to the NATO Force Model, the framework through which the alliance “organises, manages, activates and commands national forces” to support its core activities, by one-third to one-half. The Pentagon framed the cuts not as a strategic adjustment but as a test of allied commitment, or “an opportunity for allies to demonstrate that they have heard President Trump’s call for them to step up and take primary responsibility for Europe’s conventional defense.” That framing captures the central imperative of what the Trump administration has dubbed “NATO 3.0”: burden-sharing, pursued as an end in itself. Indeed, the administration has successfully identified the same problem that its predecessors did but never resolved: NATO must be reformed for a new era, with the 31 members other than the U.S. taking on a greater share of the burden for Europe’s defense. The administration’s analysis, however, has not led to a positive articulation of what the United States wants the future of European security to look like. Washington has failed to identify a threat that the alliance should organize around, which, in turn, would dictate the nature of each ally’s contributions to defending and deterring against that threat. The administration offers slogans such as “we want partnerships, not dependencies” instead of a coherent strategy. NATO 3.0 fails not because it asks Europeans to do more, but because it never defines what they are supposed to do more of, or why, and because it has made force posture an instrument of political coercion rather than strategic planning. – NATO 3.0: A Tagline in Search of a Concept | Lawfare
(Daniel Fried – Just Security) At NATO’s July 7-8 Ankara Summit, President Donald Trump can land a big success: advancing a NATO alliance with greater European military contributions, able to handle Russia’s ongoing aggression and support Ukraine’s defense and future security. But will Trump take the win? For decades, U.S. presidents have pushed European allies to build up their military capabilities. Thanks to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats and Trump’s pressure, the United States is finally winning the argument. Key allies – especially Poland and Germany – are building up their militaries. Germany and others are deploying more forces to help defend NATO’s most endangered members – especially the Baltic states. The Trump administration calls the new, effective alliance that it seeks “NATO 3.0.” In that narrative, “NATO 1.0” was the Cold War-era NATO that kept the peace and contained the Soviet threat in Europe; “NATO 2.0” was more globally engaged (e.g., in Afghanistan) but also less focused and weaker, with European countries letting their militaries shrink. NATO 3.0 would return the alliance to its original purpose of defending Europe from Kremlin aggression, but with European forces more front and center. The Trump administration has succeeded in framing the NATO Summit in these terms: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has accepted that delivering on “NATO 3.0” – meaning greater European military contributions – is the goal for the Ankara Summit. Privately, senior civilian and military officials at NATO headquarters and countries on Europe’s exposed Eastern tier say that they accept and even welcome NATO 3.0, with its call for greater European defense capability, including from their own countries. But their caveat is that the United States must do its part: maintain critical military capacity in Europe, be ready to fight if the Russians attack a NATO ally, and, critically, plan the transition to greater European military contributions so there are no gaps in defense coverage. This is where concerns arise: the Trump administration risks blowing up the emerging deal through chaotic troop withdrawals from Europe, suggestions that the United States will reduce its NATO military contributions to nuclear backup and not much else, and quiet but alarming ambivalence about whether it will honor its obligations to help defend all NATO allies. The larger question being posed by officials in some of the countries doing the most to put meat on the bones of NATO 3.0 is whether the Trump administration seeks in good faith to rebalance the alliance or instead wants the United States to disengage from European security at a time when the threat from the Kremlin is greater than at any point since the early 1980s. The answer so far seems to be that the administration includes senior people in both camps: those who seek a better alliance (with greater European military contributions) and those whose objective is to pull the United States largely out of Europe regardless of the threat. – Will Trump Take the Win at NATO’s Ankara Summit?
Russia
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is increasingly treating critical minerals as instruments of foreign policy, using state-backed resource projects tos deepen long-term strategic partnerships across BRICS countries and the broader Global South rather than simply expanding commodity exports. Moscow’s approach combines upstream resource access with processing, technology cooperation, and existing nuclear-sector relationships. Sanctions, infrastructure constraints, and strong international competition, however, limit its ability to translate geological potential into industrial influence. Cooperation with India, Brazil, and Bolivia demonstrates that Russia’s critical-minerals diplomacy is tailored to local political and economic conditions but consistently seeks to embed resource cooperation within broader state-to-state strategic relationships. – Moscow Aims to Treat Critical Minerals as Diplomatic Instruments – Jamestown
Somalia – Al Shabaab
(Crisis Group) The Somali government’s battle with Al-Shabaab militants grinds on, with neither able to gain a decisive advantage. To improve its lot, Mogadishu needs to bolster its military and alleviate civilian suffering in areas under insurgent control, while looking for openings for dialogue with the group. – New Chapter, Same Stalemate: Somalia’s War with Al-Shabaab | International Crisis Group
Sudan
(The Soufan Center) Egyptian authorities detained hundreds of people — 87 Egyptians and 136 foreigners — and seized large amounts of equipment last week in a sweeping operation targeting illegal gold mining and smuggling along its border with Sudan. Both the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces had been heavily involved in the gold trade prior to the breakout of the Sudan war, however, the current conflict has exacerbated gold’s role within Sudan’s political economy as a driver of the conflict. Artisanal small-scale gold mining (ASGM) has emerged as a top security, environmental, and public health concern within the region. The regional consequences of artisanal small-scale gold mining are increasingly pronounced as illicit gold flows intersect with broader transnational trafficking networks involving arms, narcotics, and human movement. – Sudan’s Gold Economy Is Fueling a Regional Security Challenge – The Soufan Center
US
(Adam Fefer and Maria J. Stephan – Just Security) The Trump administration’s attacks on constitutional rights include those on free speech, freedom of the press, and freedom of assembly that are protected by the First Amendment. Recent incidents illustrate the breadth of these actions. Last month, peaceful protestors, including a U.S. senator, were tear-gassed outside Delaney Hall, an ICE detention facility in Newark, New Jersey, that he and others have criticized for inhumane conditions. In April, FBI Director Kash Patel sued The Atlantic over reporting on behavior he exhibited that multiple colleagues deemed a threat to national security, and the FBI began investigating the reporter. Last week, ICE agents served a Syracuse poll worker a formal complaint for a social media post she made last January criticizing the ICE agent responsible for killing Reneé Good, which is protected free speech. These threats come at a time when the United States is undergoing the most pronounced democratic decline in its history, according to the Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem). At the same time, that very overreach by the Trump administration has inspired the emergence of a broad front defending free expression, one reaching across partisan and sectoral lines. These otherwise “unlikely allies” may strongly disagree on policy but recognize shared threats to constitutional freedoms. Republican Governors Phil Scott and Kevin Stitt in January shared with Democrats an abhorrence of the shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis and expressed opposition to uncontrolled federal ICE and DHS deployments against immigrants. Businesses are viewing crackdowns on immigration and on peaceful protesters as disruptions to the economy. Libertarians and free speech absolutists share with left-leaning immigration activists a revulsion to masked federal officers detaining the administration’s critics. Even conservative outlets like Fox News and Newsmax refused to sign the Pentagon’s new restrictions on journalists covering the Defense Department. – How Defending Free Speech Can Unite Unlikely Allies
(Maria Curi, Ashley Gold – Axios) President Trump is redefining what it means to be a U.S. ally in the AI era. For the White House, it’s now about how partners can help the U.S. win the AI race. For decades, shared values and security interests have underpinned alliances with Europe and other partners around the world. Under Trump, that’s no longer enough. As AI becomes central to economic and military power, frontier AI models, chips and infrastructure are turning into new instruments of American influence. The Trump administration is blocking allies from accessing the world’s most powerful models, playing it close to the vest and criticizing Europe for not having its own robust AI industry. – Trump puts allies on notice: AI power comes first
US – India
(McKenzie Cromer – Just Security) U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed several ambitious agreements for increased defense cooperation with India during a recent visit to New Delhi. In response to increased Chinese submarine patrols in the region, for example, Rubio and Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar signed a comprehensive Underwater Domain Awareness roadmap and expanded current initiatives to monitor real-time activity in the Indo-Pacific with their two partners in the “Quad,” Japan and Australia. In a joint press conference, Rubio suggested the United States and India have “a tremendous strategic alliance” and noted the intention to move from simply a defense producer-buyer relationship to one of co-development of advanced military technology, something India has been seeking for decades. While the diplomatic rhetoric may increasingly project a partnership of equals, the regulatory environment tells a different story. Washington’s shift from a rules-based export licensing regime to ad hoc horse-trading in a burdened Commerce Department pushes India’s defense tech ecosystem toward architectural choices that will make these agreements more difficult to implement. – US Export Controls are Testing the Limits of US-India Cooperation
US – Iran
(William F. Wechsler – Atlantic Council) Since first taking office, US President Donald Trump has been right on Iran more often than his critics care to admit. From the outset, he recognized the threat posed by the regime and its nuclear program, necessarily expanded US sanctions to disrupt Iran’s malign activities, and sought a stronger nuclear deal than the imperfect one negotiated by his predecessor. The Abraham Accords that Trump announced near the end of his first term allowed for significantly improved military coordination between Israel and the Gulf, including critical efforts to improve defenses that proved invaluable when Iran twice attacked Israel directly during the Biden administration. Trump also has made a number of correct calls on the most difficult questions involving the use of US military force against Iran, often overruling his advisors. Sometimes he has properly been more cautious; other times he has appropriately been willing to take calculated risks. In 2019, for instance, he wisely rejected a Pentagon recommendation to strike Iran directly in response to the shootdown of a US drone, which would have been a disproportionate and thus potentially dangerous response. Then, in 2020, he shocked the Pentagon by ordering the killing of Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani, which materially diminished Iranian capabilities and did not immediately provoke the wider war that many had feared at the time. That risk was mitigated when Trump refused calls to escalate further after Iran retaliated against US forces. Most significantly, Trump made the right decision last year to bomb Iran’s nuclear program, reversing his administration’s prior decision to distance itself from Israel’s earlier strikes. Trump hasn’t gotten everything right on Iran, of course. In 2018, he unwisely withdrew altogether from former US President Barack Obama’s nuclear agreement instead of leveraging its strengths, such as its provisions to “snap back” sanctions. In 2019, he failed to respond when Iranian proxies attacked Saudi energy facilities Since his first term he has repeatedly questioned whether the United States should protect the flow of energy from the Gulf, arguing that “we don’t need oil” and therefore “don’t have to be patrolling the straits.” And he even began his second term by eliminating security details for those who served him previously and were targets of Iranian assassination plots. Still, as this year began, it was reasonable to believe that Trump was well-positioned to develop a new set of policies toward Iran to advance US interests. Indeed, circumstances might have never been more advantageous for a shrewd combination of US power and diplomacy. Tehran’s geostrategic position had been sharply diminished in the wake of Israeli military successes against Iranian partners Hamas and Hezbollah, the fall of Iran’s ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Israel’s destruction of Iranian strategic air defenses, and the damage done in 2025 to Iran’s nuclear facilities. Perhaps most importantly, there were signs that the Iranian people were poised to once again rise up against their oppressors. It was a moment to leverage US strengths in coordination with regional partners to diminish the Iranian regime’s ability to threaten both the Middle East and its own citizens. Unfortunately, Trump did not learn from his own experiences with Iran and take advantage of this generational opportunity. Instead, he repeated many of his predecessors’ mistakes by launching a misguided war and compounding the error by agreeing to a deeply flawed ceasefire agreement. Nevertheless, there remains a way to salvage the situation. To avoid dangerous, predictable outcomes in the months and years ahead, Trump should embrace a new negotiating approach, a new emphasis on regional security and deterrence, and a new commitment to preparing for the future—all of which could attract bipartisan support in Congress. – A misguided war, a flawed deal, and a dangerous future. Here’s what to do next on Iran. – Atlantic Council
Tech world, Security, and Surveillance
(DigWatch) Singapore has launched a public consultation on a proposed Digital Infrastructure Bill that would establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for major cloud computing services and data centres. Published jointly by the Ministry of Digital Development and Information and the Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA), the draft legislation aims to strengthen the resilience and security of critical digital infrastructure while introducing mandatory environmental sustainability standards for data centre operations. The Bill recognises digital infrastructure as a foundation of Singapore’s digital economy, supporting services ranging from digital banking and e-commerce to cloud platforms and public administration. Unlike earlier amendments to the Cybersecurity Act, which focused primarily on cyber risks, the proposal extends regulatory oversight to operational resilience, business continuity, disaster recovery and environmental sustainability. – Public Consultation on Digital Infrastructure Bill | Ministry of Digital Development and Information
(DigWatch) French President Emmanu/el Macron and World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus have called for stronger governance of digital environments to protect children’s health and well-being. In a joint statement, they argued that social media, gaming platforms, AI and other digital services are increasingly shaping children’s physical, mental and social development. The authors said digital technologies can support education, healthcare access, creativity and social inclusion, especially for children in remote or disadvantaged communities. However, they argued that these benefits depend on how digital services are designed, regulated and governed. – The Digital Choices Shaping our Children’s Health. | Élysée
(Danny Palmer – Infosecurity Magazine) Cybercriminals are posing as international law enforcement agencies in a phishing campaign designed to deliver ransomware attacks. As detailed by Bitdefender Antispam Lab in a blog post published on July 1, the phishing attacks target small businesses across Europe, Asia, the Middle East and North America with emails which claim to come from the ‘Cybercrime Investigation Unit’ at Interpol. The fake Interpol email claims that businesses which received it have potentially been involved with or subject to suspicious or fraudulent activity and that the victims should urgently open a file which purports to contain evidence to be reviewed. – Criminals Pose as Interpol in Phishing Emails to Deliver Ransomware – Infosecurity Magazine
(Phil Muncaster – Infosecurity Magazine) Secure-by-design systems, segmented networks, and logging and monitoring are among the best ways to defeat cyber adversaries, according to penetration testers. That is according to the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), which explained in a blog post published on July 1, that it asked a group of pen testers it works with: “What can organizations do to make your job harder?”. Their responses could help security teams to improve the resilience of their systems to compromise. – NCSC Shares Tips on How to Make a Pen Tester’s Job Harder – Infosecurity Magazine
(Pierluigi Paganini – Security Affairs) SOCRadar’s Threat Research Unit has connected FortiBleed, a large-scale campaign that harvested credentials from over 430,000 FortiGate firewalls worldwide, directly to two active ransomware operations: INC Ransom and Lynx. The link isn’t circumstantial. An operator with access to FortiBleed’s own infrastructure was found actively logged into the negotiation panels of both ransomware groups, handling ransom demands in real time. FortiBleed has been documented since SOCRadar’s first report. The operation uses a custom tool written in Go called FortigateSniffer, which passively intercepts authentication traffic by abusing FortiOS’s own built-in packet diagnostic command across two dozen protocols. – 430,000 FortiGate Devices Exposed in FortiBleed Ransomware Link
(DigWatch) The United Kingdom and Germany have agreed to strengthen cooperation on AI safety and security, expanding collaboration on advanced AI evaluation, cybersecurity risks and research into frontier AI systems. Both governments described AI as one of the most consequential technologies of the era, offering significant economic and societal benefits while creating new security risks that require closer international cooperation. The cooperation builds on the UK–Germany Strategic Science and Technology Partnership, a priority initiative under the UK-Germany Friendship and Bilateral Cooperation Treaty signed last year. – UK-Germany joint statement on advanced AI safety and security – GOV.UK
(DigWatch) Saudi Arabia has ranked first globally in the International Telecommunication Union’s 2025 ICT Development Index, which measures progress towards universal and meaningful connectivity. The index assessed 164 economies using indicators grouped around universal and effective connectivity. Saudi Arabia’s Communications, Space and Technology Commission said the result reflects sustained investment in digital infrastructure and the country’s efforts to strengthen the competitiveness of its technology sector. CST said advanced telecommunications networks have helped support digital economic growth, attract investment and expand the role of technology across the economy. – Saudi Arabia Ranks First Globally in the 2025 ICT Development Index issued by ITU
(DigWatch) Canada and Germany have signed a joint declaration of intent to strengthen semiconductor supply chains and deepen industrial cooperation, reinforcing collaboration in a technology that underpins AI, advanced computing and the digital economy. The declaration was signed on the sidelines of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency by Carlos Leitão, Parliamentary Secretary to Canada’s Minister of Industry, and Stefan Rouenhoff, Parliamentary State Secretary at Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. Canada said resilient and diversified semiconductor supply chains are becoming increasingly important as global demand grows for AI, advanced computing and connected technologies. – Canada and Germany strengthen industrial partnership to build resilient semiconductor supply chains – Canada.ca
(DigWatch) The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency has launched a new advisory framework to strengthen public-private cooperation on critical infrastructure security and resilience. The initiative, called the Alliance of National Councils for Homeland Operational Resilience, or ANCHOR-CI, is designed to improve information sharing between government and industry and broaden participation across critical infrastructure sectors. CISA said the framework builds on lessons from the Critical Infrastructure Partnership Advisory Council while expanding engagement to a wider range of public and private stakeholders. – CISA Launches a Critical Infrastructure Security Partnership
(DigWatch) Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden has warned that rapidly advancing AI capabilities, particularly agentic AI systems capable of autonomously carrying out complex sequences of actions, pose growing risks to financial stability. Breeden noted that open-source AI models may trail the most advanced proprietary models by only four to eight months. She warned that delays in applying security patches can allow attackers to reverse engineer newly disclosed vulnerabilities, echoing the Five Eyes cybersecurity agencies’ assessment that the relevant timeline for AI-enabled cyber threats is measured in months rather than years. – Agents of change − speech by Sarah Breeden | Bank of England
(Dig.Watch) Global 5G subscriptions passed 3 billion in the first quarter of 2026, according to Ericsson’s latest Mobility Report. The report says 162 million 5G subscriptions were added during the quarter, bringing the global total to 3.1 billion. Ericsson expects 5G subscriptions to more than double to 6.4 billion by the end of 2031. 5G will also carry around half of global mobile data traffic by the end of 2025. Ericsson projects that 5G networks will account for 85% of mobile data traffic by 2031. – Ericsson: Global 5G User Base Surpasses 3 Billion as AI Reshapes Mobile Networks – TechAfrica News
(DigWatch) OpenAI has introduced GeneBench-Pro, a research benchmark designed to assess whether AI agents can perform the complex, judgment-intensive analysis required in real-world computational biology. Unlike conventional benchmarks that focus on factual recall or routine workflows, GeneBench-Pro is designed to measure what OpenAI calls ‘research taste‘, the sequence of judgement calls involved in scientific analysis, from interpreting ambiguous data and revising assumptions to deciding whether findings are robust enough to inform downstream research. – OpenAI launches GeneBench-Pro for AI biology research | Digital Watch Observatory
In partnership with
