Sources: Breaking Defense; Council on Foreign Relations; Defense News; Defense One; The Jamestown Foundation; The Soufan Center; UN News
Anti-Migrant Mobilization
(The Soufan Center) South Africa’s escalating anti-migrant mobilization, ahead of the June 30 deadline self-imposed by anti-migrant groups for undocumented foreigners to leave the country, marks the latest manifestation of xenophobic sentiment in South Africa amid rising anti-migrant tensions globally. Northern Ireland has also been plagued with violence from anti-migrant groups after a Sudanese man was caught on video stabbing a man in the streets of Belfast. Anti-migrant sentiment has been on the rise globally, often capitalized on by far-right or right-wing political figures who place immigration, asylum, border control, or national identity at the center of their political appeal. Far-right political figures and influencers have become increasingly effective as they are aware of their ability to intervene in debates beyond their own borders, often amplifying like-minded movements abroad. – From Pretoria to Belfast: The Global Rise of Anti-Migrant Sentiment – The Soufan Center
China
(Samantha Hoffman – The Jamestown Foundation) A new long-term plan to build data infrastructure calls for the construction of sector-specific databases to underpin artificial intelligence (AI) development in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The plan is tied to a desire for social control and for achieving national security objectives through the promotion of “high quality datasets”. The PRC has identified “physically distributed but logically centralized” data management as a central goal. Its new National Dataset Management Service Platform intends to aggregate data collected across government agencies to be used for AI model training, while centrally sanctioned data exchanges allow the government to audit and track data flows. The datasets will also be deployed to improve the effectiveness of the social credit system and the public security apparatus through increased data-sharing across government institutions. – Databases Centralized for AI Development – Jamestown
China – Taiwan
(Yimou Lee, Ben Blanchard and Michael Martina – Reuters/Defense News) The United States, Britain, France and Germany raised the alarm on Wednesday over recent Chinese activities off the east coast of Taiwan where China has mounted Coast Guard patrols, saying they threaten regional stability and freedom of navigation. China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, sent Coast Guard ships earlier in June into the waters off the island’s east coast for what it called a “special maritime traffic law-enforcement operation,” angering Taipei. – US, UK, France, Germany raise alarm about Chinese patrols off eastern Taiwan
Georgia
(Nicholas Chkhaidze – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgia’s State Security Service (SSSG) made four high-profile counterintelligence arrests between April and May. On June 3, the French outlet Intelligence Online reported that France’s Directorate-General for External Security (DGSE) recalled two intelligence officers from Tbilisi after the SSSG claimed to have exposed a DGSE operation to recruit Giorgi Udzilauri. Each arrest followed a particular sequence: an SSSG announcement that did not name the Georgian suspect or country in question, pro-government media outlets naming the suspects and publishing leaks, and public statements from the state minister and former chief of SSSG, Mamuka Mdinaradze, suggesting a coordinated information campaign and efforts to undermine Western intelligence operations. Georgia’s pressure on Western intelligence services and its employees coincided with frustration in Washington over how Tbilisi handled sanctions evasion and Iranian financial networks, raising questions about the possibility of the ruling party, Georgian Dream, renewing its partnership with the West. – Tbilisi’s Counterintelligence Drive Strains Western Ties – Jamestown
Red Sea
(Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) Although the Strait of Hormuz, which had been closed to shipping since late February, appears to be slowly reopening as part of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, concerns persist about the security of another regional maritime choke point: the Red Sea. On June 8, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels announced a complete ban on Israeli ships transiting the Red Sea, calling them “legitimate military targets.” The announcement came after Iranian officials threatened in April to obstruct trade in the waterway if the Trump administration upheld its naval blockade on Iran. The blockade has since been lifted, but worries linger about the waterway’s vulnerability. The Red Sea, a 1,400-mile-long inlet between northeastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, is one of the world’s most important arteries for global shipping. Each year, approximately 12 to 15 percent of global maritime trade worth more than $1 trillion transits the waterway, which extends from the Suez Canal in the north to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the south. Alongside the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea could form a critical economic pressure point in the Iran war. Experts say sustained interference in the Red Sea, especially by the Houthis, would trigger severe supply-chain delays, drive up energy prices, and further destabilize the global economy. The waterway has been an active conflict zone since 2023, when the Yemen-based Houthis began attacking commercial and naval vessels in protest of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, significantly disrupting international shipping. The group’s entry into the Iran war in March by firing missiles at southern Israel underscored the Red Sea’s potential to become a new front in broader regional tensions. Its total ban on Israeli and Israel-linked shipping in the waterway threatens further escalation amid renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran. – Another Hormuz? The Red Sea’s Threat to the Global Economy | Council on Foreign Relations
Romania
(George Vișan – The Jamestown Foundation) Romania is investing more than $20 billion in its air defense, but Russian drones continue to pose a threat to its airspace and its citizens. The air defense threat faced by Romania in the Black Sea region is complex. It varies from high-performance fighter jets and strategic bombers to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and one-way attack munitions. Romania faces the two major challenges of maintaining the credibility of deterrence on the Eastern Flank and keeping its citizens convinced that it can defend them. – Romania Invests Heavily in Air Defense to Counter Russian Threat – Jamestown
Russia
(Vadim Shtepa – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s highly centralized vertical of power reflects a long-standing imperial tradition rooted in Moscow’s self-appointed mission to unite and control surrounding lands. Some Russian opposition figures’ ideas for a post-Putin Russia envision Moscow-centric governance, advocating a strong central authority that risks reproducing imperial structures rather than enabling genuine federalism and regional self-determination. Other Russian opposition figures argue that a durable post-Putin Russia would require subsidiarity, freely elected regional governments, and voluntary federal arrangements, potentially including the option for independence, rather than preserving Moscow’s political and economic dominance over Russia’s regions. – Moscow-Centric Russian Future Risks Perpetuating Putin’s Power Vertical – Jamestown
UN, First global regulations for fully autonomous driving systems
(UN News) A UN vehicle standards forum has approved the first global regulations for fully autonomous driving systems (ADS), marking a major step towards the safe deployment of self-driving vehicles. The new regulatory framework – adopted on Wednesday by the UN Economic Commission for Europe’s (UNECE) World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations – comes a decade after early predictions of widespread automated driving failed to materialise. The new rules establish common safety requirements and a shared method for validating vehicles equipped with ADS. They aim to strengthen trust among governments, industry and the public by ensuring that automated systems meet rigorous safety standards. “By preventing fragmented national approaches, the regulation offers clarity for manufacturers, confidence for consumers and a pathway to scale innovation safely across markets,” UNECE said. – New global rules clear the road for driverless vehicles | UN News
Climate Action
(UN News) Amid efforts to cool global warming, the battle hinges on targeting such super-pollutants as methane, which emits one third of the world’s greenhouse gases and “is a fight we can win”, the UN chief on Wednesday. “The climate crisis is accelerating, and we are now on course to overshoot the 1.5°C limit in the coming years,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told delegates at the super-pollutants reception during London Climate Action Week, which runs from 20 to 28 June. “Reducing methane is a fight we can win and benefit from in our own time,” he said. “Our task is to keep that overshoot as small, short and safe as possible and to bring temperatures back down. That can’t happen without drastically reducing emissions, starting now, and accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels, starting now”. To do so demands that the world move fast on super-pollutants, which are potent greenhouse gases behind nearly half the global warming to date. – UN chief: Targeting methane is a climate battle ‘we can win’ | UN News
Defense
(Tim Martin – Breaking Defense) A trio of British industry partners are exploring how to reduce the size of an in-development high energy laser set to be equipped for the first time on a Royal Navy Type 45 destroyer next year. Local firm QinetiQ, alongside the British divisions of MBDA and Leonardo, are collaborating on the DragonFire weapon system. The platform is estimated to cost less than £10 ($13) per shot, as new test and evaluation activities focus on miniaturizing the laser. Qinetic’s ongoing work is focused on exploring “the overall manufacture of the [laser] beam, trying to reduce the size further of the whole system … [and] understanding the through-life support of a system like this,” said James Anderson, Royal Navy account lead at QinetiQ. – UK industry team looks to miniaturize DragonFire laser for Type 45 destroyer debut – Breaking Defense
(Bartosz Głowacki – Breaking Defense) Poland inked a deal with Shield AI to purchase the MQ-35 V-Bat unmanned aerial system in a $16 million (USD) deal that will deliver “several” platforms to the Polish Navy by the end of the year, according to Poland’s Armaments Agency. After completing the necessary installation work, the V-Bat systems will be deployed aboard an unspecified class of Polish Navy vessel to aid in maritime intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations, according to Polish authorities. The new systems are also expected to help protect critical infrastructure and communication routes. – Poland buys V-Bat UAVs from Shield AI for naval forces – Breaking Defense
(Edward Graham – Defense One) The Pentagon’s new strategy for defending against quantum computers will ensure “the integrity of our systems for decades to come,” its IT lead said Wednesday, but network modernization “is only a first step” in readying the U.S. military for the threat. Speaking at the SAP NOW summit in Washington, D.C., Chief Information Officer Kirsten Davies said the Defense Department’s new guidance for “accelerating our adoption of post-quantum cryptography” will mitigate the danger. The strategy was released on Tuesday, one day after President Donald Trump signed two executive orders meant to hasten domestic development of quantum capabilities and ward off threats to federal agencies’ cryptographic security systems. – Pentagon’s quantum strategy ‘a first step’ in preparing for the future, CIO says – Defense One
(Thomas Novelly – Defense One) General Atomics is working to enable older MQ-9 ground stations to control the latest version of the drone, allowing longtime operators moving to newer models to buy the upgrade package instead of a whole new terminal. The company is expected to announce this week that its Block 30 ground control stations, introduced in 2016 to control the MQ-9A Reaper, will be modified to also fly the MQ-9B SkyGuardian and SeaGuardian drones. General Atomics expects to begin flight testing with the new stations by the end of the year. – General Atomics plans upgrade so ground stations can fly newer MQ-9 drones – Defense One
(Thomas Novelly – Defense One) The Space Force needs to better define its policies regarding conflict in space and better rehearse for various scenarios, a new research paper argues. The paper flowed from a January workshop held by the Mitchell Institute. About 50 space experts envisioned various new ways that satellites and spacecraft might be used in gray-zone or even wartime conflicts. These included Russian cyber-attacks in Europe, jamming of U.S. satellites, the mysterious destruction of Cape Canaveral’s bridges, the “repositioning of a recently inoperable European commercial satellite without prior coordination,” the deactivation of Midwestern power grids—even an unattributed “nuclear detonation” in low earth orbit. – Space Force must prepare for all-out warfare, think tank says – Defense One
(David DiMolfetta – Defense One) Parts of the National Security Agency have lost access to Anthropic’s Mythos 5 model after the Trump administration restricted its export, though the agency may have limited ways to use the technology, according to two people familiar with the matter. Some agency analysts were notified Friday that they would lose access to Mythos, one of the people said. The NSA may still be able to use earlier versions of the technology under prior arrangements, said the second person. Both were granted anonymity to speak freely about the situation. The change could disrupt at least some NSA work involving one of the most closely watched AI tools in government, where civilian and defense officials have been testing whether advanced models can help identify software weaknesses in their systems. – Parts of NSA lose Mythos 5 access after White House imposes limits – Defense One
(Lauren C. Williams – Defense One) US – Two Army infantry divisions will soon run the same next-gen command-and-control system, if all goes as planned, bringing the service one step closer to digitally sharing key battle data. That’s the next phase for NGC2, which began as experiments in 2024 and became a program of record in April 2025. In recent months, two divisions have been working on prototypes: the 25th Infantry Division, led by Lockheed Martin, and the 4th Infantry Division, led by Anduril and Palantir. The Colorado-based 4ID has been using the technology for about a year, testing the “full stack” system in recent military exercises. – Army aims to sync two divisions using next-gen C2 by year’s end – Defense One
(Eve Sampson – Defense News) U.S. Army Gen. Christopher Donahue, who oversaw the service’s operations across Europe and Africa and became known as the last U.S. soldier to leave Afghanistan, will unexpectedly relinquish command next week after just 18 months in the role, the Pentagon confirmed Wednesday. “Gen. Christopher Donahue, commanding general of U.S. Army Europe and Africa and commander of NATO’s Allied Land Command, will relinquish command on July 2, 2026,” Army spokeswoman Cynthia O. Smith said in a statement. – Gen. Christopher Donahue to unexpectedly relinquish command of Army Europe and Africa
(Linus Höller – Defense News) Germany’s Defense Ministry has canceled its troubled F126 frigate program, scrapping plans to build six specialized anti-submarine warships and opting instead to procure eight MEKO A-200 frigates from ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, the ministry announced Wednesday. The decision follows years of delays and cost overruns under Dutch shipbuilder Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding, which was awarded the original contract in 2020 to build six of the 10,550-ton frigates for roughly €10 billion ($11.3 billion). The ministry said Damen had given notice that the ships could not be delivered within the agreed timeline or budget. – Germany scraps F126 frigate program, pivots to MEKO warships amid cost and contractor chaos
(Rudy Ruitenberg – Defense News) French-German tank builder KNDS plans to list its shares on the Paris and Frankfurt stock markets in an operation that will see existing shareholders selling about 20% of the company to institutional investors and Germany buying a 40% share. The two holding companies that currently control KNDS, French state-owned Giat Industries and German family-owned Wegmann & Co, will together sell about 20% of the company, KNDS said in a statement on Wednesday. The Federal Republic of Germany agreed with Wegmann to buy 40% of the maker of armored vehicles, while France will hang on to the remainder of its stake through Giat. – Tank maker KNDS plans stock market listing, Germany to buy 40% stake
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