In partnership with
Myanmar
(Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan – The Jamestown Foundation) Wei Hsueh-Kang—an ethnic Han Chinese warlord and commander in the United Wa State Army (UWSA)—informally controls the quasi-sovereign Southern Wa State in Myanmar and has transformed it into a major hub for synthetic drugs. He acts as the financial mastermind for the UWSA by using vast narcotics profits to fund armed operations, laundering these illicit earnings through large business conglomerates, infrastructure projects, and illegal jade mining. Despite facing a $2 million U.S. bounty and strict international sanctions, he remains an elusive and influential figure. He evades capture through his fortified military protection, strategic bribery, and deep political connections with Chinese intelligence. – Wei Hsueh-Kang: United Wa State Army’s U.S.-Sanctioned Chinese Warlord in Myanmar – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Alex Horobets – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukraine has transformed what began as isolated strikes against Russian oil refineries into a sustained strategic campaign that has targeted nearly every major refining facility in Russia, triggering an unprecedented fuel crisis. Russia’s air defense system has proven structurally incapable of protecting oil refineries dispersed across the country’s vast territory. Attempts to shift responsibility for their defense onto private companies, as well as initiatives announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense, are unlikely to resolve the problem in the short term. Continued strikes and limited domestic fuel reserves could turn the crisis from a series of regional disruptions into a chronic structural problem for the Russian economy, creating political risks for the Kremlin and intensifying pressure on Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and the military establishment. – Ukraine’s Refinery Strikes Push Russia’s Fuel Crisis Toward Structural Problem – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukrainian drone strikes into the Russian Federation have prompted the Kremlin to revive the idea of creating a buffer zone in western Russian regions and in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine to prevent or at least limit such strikes. The Russian government has not released details on what such a zone would entail, and there is much disagreement in Moscow over its potential size, the number of additional troops required, and whether its creation would involve the forced removal of people living there. Creating such a zone has Russian President Vladimir Putin’s public backing, though the increasing range of Ukrainian drones has led some Russians to express doubts, with some calling the idea “stupid” unless the Ukrainian state were destroyed and its entire territory absorbed into the zone. – Ukrainian Drone Attacks Lead Moscow to Revive Idea of Buffer Zone in Border Areas – Jamestown
South Caucasus
(Irakli Laitadze – The Jamestown Foundation) Civil Contract’s victory in Armenia’s elections reinforced its pro-Western stance and its peace talks with Azerbaijan, enabling the U.S.-backed Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) and its integration with the Middle Corridor via Central Asia and South Caucasus. Armenia can become a key transport hub, improving Türkiye–Azerbaijan connectivity and deepening peace ties while boosting its economy. Georgia may face rivalry to its transit routes, but its Black Sea ports will ensure deep integration into the expanded network. If successfully realized, TRIPP could foster greater economic interdependence, support regional peace and stability, and contribute to the emergence of a more interconnected South Caucasus and wider region. – TRIPP Plays Role in Reordering of Eurasian Trade Routes – Jamestown
