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ISIS – Europe
(The Soufan Center) A string of thwarted and executed attacks across Europe — many either proven or suspected to be aligned with the Islamic State (IS) — have shined a light on an evolving terrorism landscape. Recent attack plots and terrorism charges in Europe have featured youth suspects, highlighting a concerning risk matrix of online radicalization and coordination with foreign terrorist networks, creating challenges for law enforcement agencies. Recent cases have not revealed embedded foreign terrorist networks in European cities, but rather indirect influence through online radicalization and engagement, demonstrating a more passive dynamic that make detection, prevention, and interdiction difficult. The string of plots, arrests, and attacks have drawn in criticism across the political spectrum in France and Germany where there were recent deadly attacks that highlight lapses in prevention, deradicalization, and post-attack investigation processes. – A String of ISIS-Inspired Attacks in Europe – The Soufan Center
Mali – Sahel – US – Russia
(The Soufan Center) The Trump administration is reportedly weighing military options against Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al-Qaeda’s affiliate in the Sahel, marking what could become a significant expansion of U.S. counterterrorism operations in Africa. Bamako has not dismissed the prospect of U.S. involvement, suggesting a growing recognition that existing security arrangements with Russia have failed to contain the insurgency. The shifting military balance has been accelerated by the emergence of tactical coordination between armed groups, particularly JNIM and the predominantly Tuareg separatist group, Azawad Liberation Front (FLA). Whether Washington decides to authorize military action, limit engagement to intelligence support, or not intervene at all, it will confront a security landscape that has fundamentally changed since the early years of the insurgency. – Mali’s Shifting Battlefield Challenges Russia and Draws U.S. Attention – The Soufan Center
Myanmar
(Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan – The Jamestown Foundation) Wei Hsueh-Kang—an ethnic Han Chinese warlord and commander in the United Wa State Army (UWSA)—informally controls the quasi-sovereign Southern Wa State in Myanmar and has transformed it into a major hub for synthetic drugs. He acts as the financial mastermind for the UWSA by using vast narcotics profits to fund armed operations, laundering these illicit earnings through large business conglomerates, infrastructure projects, and illegal jade mining. Despite facing a $2 million U.S. bounty and strict international sanctions, he remains an elusive and influential figure. He evades capture through his fortified military protection, strategic bribery, and deep political connections with Chinese intelligence. – Wei Hsueh-Kang: United Wa State Army’s U.S.-Sanctioned Chinese Warlord in Myanmar – Jamestown
Russia, Ukraine
(Alex Horobets – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukraine has transformed what began as isolated strikes against Russian oil refineries into a sustained strategic campaign that has targeted nearly every major refining facility in Russia, triggering an unprecedented fuel crisis. Russia’s air defense system has proven structurally incapable of protecting oil refineries dispersed across the country’s vast territory. Attempts to shift responsibility for their defense onto private companies, as well as initiatives announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense, are unlikely to resolve the problem in the short term. Continued strikes and limited domestic fuel reserves could turn the crisis from a series of regional disruptions into a chronic structural problem for the Russian economy, creating political risks for the Kremlin and intensifying pressure on Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and the military establishment. – Ukraine’s Refinery Strikes Push Russia’s Fuel Crisis Toward Structural Problem – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukrainian drone strikes into the Russian Federation have prompted the Kremlin to revive the idea of creating a buffer zone in western Russian regions and in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine to prevent or at least limit such strikes. The Russian government has not released details on what such a zone would entail, and there is much disagreement in Moscow over its potential size, the number of additional troops required, and whether its creation would involve the forced removal of people living there. Creating such a zone has Russian President Vladimir Putin’s public backing, though the increasing range of Ukrainian drones has led some Russians to express doubts, with some calling the idea “stupid” unless the Ukrainian state were destroyed and its entire territory absorbed into the zone. – Ukrainian Drone Attacks Lead Moscow to Revive Idea of Buffer Zone in Border Areas – Jamestown
South Caucasus
(Irakli Laitadze – The Jamestown Foundation) Civil Contract’s victory in Armenia’s elections reinforced its pro-Western stance and its peace talks with Azerbaijan, enabling the U.S.-backed Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) and its integration with the Middle Corridor via Central Asia and South Caucasus. Armenia can become a key transport hub, improving Türkiye–Azerbaijan connectivity and deepening peace ties while boosting its economy. Georgia may face rivalry to its transit routes, but its Black Sea ports will ensure deep integration into the expanded network. If successfully realized, TRIPP could foster greater economic interdependence, support regional peace and stability, and contribute to the emergence of a more interconnected South Caucasus and wider region. – TRIPP Plays Role in Reordering of Eurasian Trade Routes – Jamestown
US, China
(Yanzhong Huang – Council on Foreign Relations) For nearly two decades, one finding in Pew Research Center’s global surveys was as reliable as the sunrise: the world viewed the United States more favorably than China. That era has ended. In its July 15 report—based on interviews with more than forty-two thousand people across thirty-six countries—Pew found that China is now viewed more favorably than the United States in most nations surveyed. The same survey marked a second milestone: across the twenty countries Pew has tracked annually since 2023, median confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping now exceeds confidence in U.S. President Donald Trump by ten points. The shift appears all the more salient as it comes on the heels of China’s soft power falling to COVID-19 pandemic-era lows just a few years ago. Given Pew’s stature as the gold standard for tracking global public opinion, the symbolic weight of this reversal is hard to overstate. – China Now Outranks the United States in Global Favorability. What Happened? | Council on Foreign Relations
US, Saudi Arabia
(Erin Dumbacher – Council on Foreign Relations) The Trump administration announced on July 22 a civil nuclear deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia that would allow for exports of U.S. nuclear technology to the kingdom. The deal, known as a 123 agreement, must be transmitted to Congress for review under U.S. law. Yet its short-term future appears in doubt due to President Donald Trump’s linkage of the deal to Saudi accession to the Abraham Accords, which would normalize the kingdom’s relations with Israel. Still, nonproliferation experts have flagged aspects of the deal that they say will weaken standard controls against converting the technology to military use. The U.S.-Saudi process also comes at a time when the foundations of the global nuclear order have begun to crack. – The Saudi Nuclear Deal Would Set a Dangerous New Proliferation Precedent | Council on Foreign Relations
