Analyses from global think tanks (30 July 2026)

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US

(Caroline Berry – Atlantic Council) The United States currently lacks a clear and transparent process for restricting access to new AI models. Congress should establish public standards defining when AI models can be restricted, which agencies oversee reviews, and what evidence is required for emergency action. Clear legal safeguards would make future restrictions more transparent and accountable, while preserving the government’s ability to respond to national security threats. – The Fable 5 shutdown and the troubling precedent it sets for AI policy – Atlantic Council

War in Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Middle East, Gulf

(Jonathan Panikoff – Atlantic Council) Believing that it can use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, the Iranian regime is unlikely to make major concessions under additional military pressure. Since either a negotiated settlement or a US ground invasion is unlikely, the situation appears headed for prolonged instability. Instead, Oman, backed by a European-led maritime mission, should help secure the strait to reduce tensions and maintain freedom of navigation. – How Oman and Europe can open the Strait of Hormuz for good – Atlantic Council

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