The Clock Is Ticking: Fertilizer, Food, and the Fragility of Global Agriculture

(Máximo Torero Cullen – Council on Foreign Relations) The conflict in the Middle East has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a critical failure point for global food security. The strait’s closure has reduced tanker traffic by more than 95 percent, disrupting millions of tons of fertilizer shipments each month and resulting in an unprecedented shock to agricultural inputs. Unlike the energy crisis of 2022, this disruption hits supply and demand at the same time—with no option for an alternative supply response. Meanwhile, Persian Gulf countries that depend heavily on food imports are cut off, further destabilizing global markets. Farmers now face difficult decisions that will shape global food production through 2027. They need to reduce fertilizer use and accept lower yields, shift to alternative crops, or absorb much higher costs and risk financial collapse. FAO estimates suggest that cereal producers, specifically, could face income losses of up to 5 percent in 2026, with lasting impacts through 2030. The consequences extend well beyond agriculture, threatening higher food prices, higher food inflation, reduced economic growth, and increased hunger worldwide. Immediate and coordinated action is critical as the window to respond rapidly closes. – Fertilizer, Food, and the Fragility of Global Agriculture | Council on Foreign Relations