Military exercises not only make known what a government believes could happen but become an occasion for its analysts and those in other countries to speculate as to what the outcomes of a real military conflict would be if the scenarios were to be applied in actual combat. And such speculation may, in some cases, be the real purpose of the exercises because it provides the government with outside analysis that might prompt a strategic course correction. That is exactly what seems to have happened in the wake of Russia’s Zapad (West) 2021 exercises this September, a massive set of maneuvers that capped off this year’s training calendar. Namely, according to some analysts, the exercise raised questions about Russia’s ability to hold all of its own territory, including most prominently the non-contiguous Kaliningrad Oblast (Fishki, September 14).
Zapad 2021 Suggests, in Event of War, Moscow Could Seize Baltics but Lose Kaliningrad – Jamestown
