A few weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping stood beside the Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and declared a ‘no limits’ partnership. However, after the tanks rolled in, the phrase quietly vanished from official rhetoric as its continued use could have signalled unambiguous Chinese backing of Russia’s war footing. Yet the eventual rupture with the West only deepened their ties. Isolated and increasingly aligned, Moscow and Beijing forged a silent alliance in which Xi, with quiet calculation, steadily gained the upper hand over Putin. However, the political turnover in Washington in 2025 was marked by a deliberate shift away from European entanglements, toward both a strategic reset with Moscow and intensified efforts to contain China in the Indo-Pacific. This has signalled a potential paradigmatic realignment in China-Russia relations. China is cautiously observing these developments unfold, as the reduced United States (US)-Russia contestation could potentially lead to the relative weakening of the Moscow-Beijing partnership. As discourse around the war in Ukraine tilts toward the possibility of a ceasefire, a reassessment of how these shifting dynamics affect China’s strategic interests is both timely and necessary.
Xi’s Balancing Act: Beijing’s Stake in the Russia-Ukraine Battlefield
