In assessing the rapidly evolving dynamics of the Middle East—particularly those involving Iran—one often overlooked yet critical factor is the enduring force of historical memory and national humiliation. For a country like Iran, whose modern history is marked by repeated episodes of military occupation, foreign-backed regime change, territorial threats from neighbors, and the erosion of political sovereignty, any event that reopens these historical wounds can carry serious implications for both regional and global security. These memories form a volatile reservoir of collective resentment that, if triggered, could ignite far-reaching instability. In such a scenario, the consequences may prove far more catastrophic than what has already unfolded in Gaza or Syria over the past few years. Even as a tentative ceasefire went into effect between Israel and Iran and the U.S. and Iran after 12 days of conflict, it is essential for policymakers to recognize that for Iran, national security is not defined solely in military or strategic terms. Rather, it is deeply bound to the collective memory of humiliation shaped by a long history of foreign intervention and perceived betrayal. One could argue that the very emergence of the Islamic Republic—and its confrontational posture toward the West—has been shaped by this enduring historical narrative. Failing to recognize this emotional and psychological dimension risks misreading Iran’s responses and underestimating the broader regional consequences of escalation.
Why Talk of ‘Regime Change’ Raises Lingering Ghosts of Humiliation in Iran • Stimson Center
