The post–7 October realignment in the Middle East has recalibrated threat perceptions and strategic opportunities for both Turkey and Israel. The recent ‘12-Day War’ has further accelerated this shift. While both Turkey and Israel seek to maximise influence in this fluid landscape, key indicators suggest that viewing Turkey–Israel dynamics through a zero-sum lens risks fuelling strategic miscalculations and regional instability. This could intensify competition across overlapping spheres of influence – from Syria and Iraq to the Eastern Mediterranean and the South Caucasus. The characterisation of Turkey as the principal beneficiary of the recent Iran-Israel conflict – emerging unscathed while its two regional rivals engaged in direct confrontation – oversimplifies the pressures facing Ankara’s foreign and security policy. While Turkey has publicly escalated its rhetoric against Israel, this masks the complexity of its concurrent rivalry with Iran. Managing these relationships requires a hybrid approach that blends assertive public diplomacy, strategic trade considerations, and a robust counter-intelligence posture. Ankara’s response reflects less an opportunistic gain than a strategic balancing act that weighs long-term, interrelated perceptions of threat with regional aspirations. Once close allies now appear to be on a collision course – but it is crucial to discern what is real, what is calibrated for domestic audiences, and how much of the current tension may ultimately prove impermanent.
Turkey Navigates an Escalating Israel–Iran Rivalry | Royal United Services Institute
