Thus far, Israeli strikes on Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility have been limited. At first glance, this might seem like a curious omission, given that Israel’s justification for the strikes was, “If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. . . . It could be a year. It could be within a few months.” Fordow has long been recognized as a critical component in Iran’s nuclear matrix, as a site for enriching uranium to 60 percent, well beyond what is required for civilian purposes. Further attacks on Fordow, potentially with U.S. support, could be imminent. But the success of those attacks is just one of many factors that will determine Iran’s future nuclear status. While Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently indicated Iran would be willing to return to nuclear talks (“Iran has never left the negotiating table”), and the Trump administration has indicated they are still pursuing dialogue, the potential of resolving the status of Iran’s nuclear program seems grim. The sticking point of past negotiations was over whether or not Iran could continue to enrich uranium. The ongoing crisis appears unlikely to have changed either side’s views on this crucial issue; if anything, it may cause them to be even more adamant in their opposition.
Three Things Will Determine Iran’s Nuclear Future—Fordow Is Just One of Them
