The Global Eye meets Gabriela Bernal, Korean Affairs Analyst.
– North Korea continues to shake the Pacific Rim. What are the regional implications?
The regional implications of North Korea’s actions are significant. We can especially see this in the area of armament. Both South Korea and Japan, for example, continue to boost their military capabilities, in large part because of the threat coming from North Korea. Missile launches and other provocations from North Korea also make the entire region more unstable and dangerous. This was made especially clear this past week through the tit-for-tat escalations going on between North Korea on the one hand and the US, South Korea, and Japan on the other. Not to mention, North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons could also lead to other regional actors wanting to pursue the same thing. Such debates are commonplace in South Korea and Japan, for example.
– The Pacific, as many analysts note, is the decisive area in the global reconfiguration of power relations. How are the US, China and India doing with respect to North Korea?
India is not very heavily involved when it comes to the North Korea issue. China’s main priority when it comes to the Korean Peninsula has always been the same: to prevent another war from breaking out and to keep the Kim regime from collapsing. The latter could result in deep instability along the North Korea-China border, including a sudden influx of a large number of North Korean refugees in China. This is definitely something Beijing would want to avoid. When it comes to negotiations about denuclearization, China supports a step-by-step approach, like Russia, instead of the US’ insistence of complete verifiable denuclearization up front. North Korea has repeatedly rejected the US proposal, but Washington seems unwilling to change its failed policy. China understands the futility of such a strategy and has long been advocating for a different, more arms control kind of path. Realistically, this would make more sense. As recently as September, Kim Jong Un once again reiterated his country’s position on nuclear weapons, clearly stating that denuclearization would never happen, especially as long as the US maintains its same old policy.
The one with the biggest power here, however, is the US. This is because North Korea sees the US as its main enemy and the main reason why it “needs” to have nuclear weapons. As long as the relations between these two countries are not improved, tensions on the Korean Peninsula will continue indefinitely. North Korea also needs the US to sign any end-of-war declaration in order to formally end the Korean War of 1950 (it never ended, instead fighting stopped through a ceasefire agreement). What is most important for Pyongyang is a security guarantee from the US that Washington will not seek regime change or seek to attack North Korea. Since the two parties don’t trust each other, the only way North Korea can make sure of this is by maintaining its weapons of mass destruction.
Although things were going in the right direction under former US president Donald Trump, the rigid and unrealistic position of the US at the Hanoi summit resulted in talks breaking down. Biden has yet to make North Korea a priority and is instead completely focused on Ukraine, domestic issues, and the US-China rivalry. The Biden administration has shown no signs of adopting any significant changes to the US’ old North Korea policy. As such, any progress at this stage is very unlikely.
– North Korea is just one of many hotbeds of crisis. Can you give us your assessment of the new frontiers of complexity, and of risk, at international level?
Although there are many crises in the world, North Korea is not one to be ignored. One of the main reasons is of course its nuclear weapons. If the North Korea situation is not handled with care and proper attention, we risk a potential nuclear war. It’s also important to remember that the Korean War has never officially ended. Many people speak about so-called “forever wars” but the true forever war has long been in Korea. It just receives less attention than the Middle East or Ukraine, for example. And not for good reason. With every day, month, and year that goes by without resolving the North Korea issue, Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal continues to grow and so does the threat it could pose to the entire international community. This is why more attention needs to be paid to North Korea and more efforts made at reformulating old and failed strategies in order to better fit the current situation.
