Traveling throughout Syria in the immediate aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s ouster in December 2024, as I did in February of this year, one cannot help but feel the excitement and hope among Syrians in Damascus, Latakia, Aleppo, Suweida, and Homs. Yet this is combined with concerns regarding security and the risk of monopolization of power by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Sunni Islamist group at the helm of the rebel coalition that toppled Assad after ruling the governorate of Idlib in an authoritarian manner for seven years. Since the group took control of Syria, its leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, has officially dissolved HTS, concentrated decisionmaking powers in his own hands, and relied on close allies from his inner circle to help him govern. Moreover, social tensions are brewing in parts of the country, and spoilers are on the lookout to exploit weaknesses to derail the transition process. The attacks by regime remnants in March against forces aligned with the new authorities triggered a massive campaign of revenge killing by the latter against civilians primarily of the Alawite sect (to which Assad belongs). This exposed unresolved grievances and the difficulties in overcoming the legacy of the war, something that could lead to more violence. Nevertheless, the current moment represents a unique chance for Syrians to repair a society fragmented by Assad’s sectarian policies and thirteen years of war, as well as an opportunity to establish a new political system that guarantees the equality of Syrians, representation for all components of the diverse population, and the rule of law. The National Dialogue held on February 25, 2025, and the Constitutional Declaration on March 13 marked important yet incomplete initial steps in the transition. To achieve durable peace in Syria, something to which virtually all Syrians aspire, it is critical that the interim authorities deliver on promises of inclusion, accountability, transitional justice and reconciliation. Whereas much of the international analysis of Syria focuses on meddling in the country by regional states, which is admittedly a threat to its stability and unity, I have adopted a different approach. Recognizing that internal dynamics will play an important role in the direction Syria takes, and that ordinary Syrians have both agency and a desire to shape its future, I have placed them front and center. Ultimately, the more Syrians are united and coalesce around a way forward for their country, the less likely it is that its trajectory will be shaped by external actors.
