Open newsletter – march 31, 2022 a.m.

IL NOSTRO FOCUS E’ LA “GEOSTRATEGIA DEL RISCHIO”

Complessità e rischio

Il rischio legato alle tecnologie disruptive è oggetto di ampio dibattito a livello internazionale. Brookings propone una riflessione sulla difficoltà di rendere compatibili trasparenza, equità e sicurezza dell’intelligenza artificiale con la elaborazione di algoritmi “sostenibili”. Molto dipende dagli obiettivi che si vogliono raggiungere, spesso divergenti. 

Il disegno di legge approvato dal Senato degli Stati Uniti sulla necessità di maggiori investimenti tecnologici per contrastare l’avanzata cinese e per rafforzare il sistema americano è di grande importanza (IndustryWeek). Non vi è dubbio che, in questa fase, i Paesi cerchino di investire sulla propria resilienza. La fase di transizione nella quale si trova l’interrelazione sistemica planetaria (l’attuale fase della globalizzazione) può essere molto rischiosa: vediamo, infatti, fortissime spinte autarchiche in una competizione selvaggia. Tutto questo ha come conseguenza di allontanare le economie, sostanzialmente tradendo quell’approccio multilaterale che molti richiamano come necessario. Il decoupling delle economie va chiaramente in questa direzione. Complice la guerra in Ucraina, ma già da molto tempo, ci troviamo a fare i conti con questo fenomeno: stiamo entrando in una sorta di de-globalizzazione o si stanno riconfigurando i rapporti di potenza (ri-globalizzazione) ? Qualunque sia la risposta, tutto questo minaccia la stabilità del mondo, in una fase nella quale il rischio energetico e, soprattutto, il rischio alimentare rischiano di colpire al cuore la sopravvivenza dell’umanità (in particolare dei Paesi più poveri) e del pianeta. 

Il tema delle catene di approvvigionamento è decisivo. Christopher S. Tang ne scrive in termini molto realistici per IndustryWeek. Tang descrive gli effetti devastanti che stanno derivando, e che deriveranno, dalla rottura delle global supply chains e argomenta sulla necessità di supply chains regionali. Così scrive: “The current crisis exposed the vulnerability of global supply chains, but it presents an excellent opportunity for developing regional supply chains that are more resilient. It’s about time”. Il tema è aperto. 

Importante è il tema del rischio associato alle criptovalute, non solo rispetto alla trasformazione del sistema finanziario che conosciamo ma, in particolare, rispetto agli impatti ambientali, sociali e di governance. Ne scrive Morgan Stanley

Dal punto di vista geopolitico ci preoccupa la situazione di Taiwan, laddove – con gli USA – si studiano le tattiche di guerra ucraine (Reuters). Sandra Oudkirk, direttore dell’American Institute in Taiwan, ha parlato chiaro circa le intenzioni USA di aiutare direttamente Taiwan a difendersi (Reuters): scelta rischiosa, in nome della democrazia. Crescono, intanto, le tensioni tra USA e Iran per le ultime sanzioni imposte dall’amministrazione americana (Reuters). Nella regione irachena di Bassora, problemi irrisolti rischiano di aumentare l’instabilità in Iraq e in Medio Oriente (Carnegie Middle East Center), In Cina, il ministro degli Esteri russo ha lanciato l’allarme sulla possibile insorgenza dello Stato Islamico e sul rischio instabilità in Asia Centrale (Reuters). Intorno alla penisola coreana si sviluppano esercitazioni militari tra USA e Corea del Sud (Reuters).

TODAY:

• AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflicts)
• CRYPTOCURRENCY
• DEFENSE – MILITARY
• ON LIFE (technology, the future of the internet, cybersecurity, data)
• RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflicts)

Afghanistan

• UN seeks stronger Afghanistan aid funding despite concerns on Taliban, March 31. By Reuters. The United Nations is seeking $4.4 billion for Afghanistan at an international virtual event on Thursday in the largest humanitarian appeal launched for a single country even as concerns mount over Taliban rule. (read more)

Central Asia

• Russia concerned at Islamic State’s plans to destabilise Central Asia -report, March 31. By Reuters (read more)

Iraq

• Eden Denied: Environmental Decay, Illicit Activities, and Instability in Iraq’s Southern Border Area, March 29. By Harith Hasan, Carnegie Middle East Center. In Iraq’s Eastern Basra region, regional conflicts and illicit activity have contributed to environmental decay, which in turn furthers instability. Unless these problems are addressed, there will be long-term consequences for Iraq and the Middle East. (read more)

Israel – Palestine

• Israeli forces on West Bank raid kill two Palestinians during clashes – health ministry, March 31. By Reuters. Israeli forces killed at least two Palestinians on Thursday, the Palestinian health ministry said, in clashes that erupted during a raid in the occupied West Bank that followed deadly Arab attacks in Israel. (read more)

South Africa

• Lessons from the Cape Town water crisis and the need for a renewed technical agenda, March 30. Cape Town, South Africa faced a crippling drought between 2016 and 2018. The widely reported “Day Zero” crisis, wherein the city faced the real possibility of the taps being turned off, presented an acute shock and highlighted major vulnerabilities in the city’s water supply system, which relies largely on six large dams. Due to a combination of demand incentives, intensive supply management, and behavioral change campaigns, Cape Town was able to avert “Day Zero.” However, the crisis provided a number of useful lessons and exposed the critical need for a water system rooted in principles of resilience and a renewed technical approach to water management aimed at equity, sustainability, and water sensitivity. (read more)

Taiwan

• U.S. says China’s pressure on Taiwan a threat to all democracies, March 31. By Reuters. China’s diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan represents a threat to all democracies and the United States is committed to helping the island defend itself, the top U.S. diplomat in Taipei said. Speaking at an American Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan event late on Wednesday, Sandra Oudkirk, director of the American Institute in Taiwan which handles relations in the absence of formal diplomatic ties, said managing U.S. differences with China faces “distinct challenges”. (read more)
• Taiwan studying Ukraine war tactics, discussing with U.S., March 31. By Reuters. Taiwan’s defence ministry has set up a working group to study the tactics of the war in Ukraine, including how the country has been able to hold out against Russia, and has been discussing this with the United States, its minister said on Thursday. (read more)

USA

• Anti-CRT bills are aimed to incite the GOP base—not parents, March 30. By William H. Frey, Brookings: Beginning last year and continuing in 2022, dozens of states—mostly those with Republican-dominated legislatures and governors—have proposed laws and executive orders banning the teaching of critical race theory (CRT) or, more broadly, books and courses on America’s diversity. Perhaps most noteworthy was newly elected Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin’s “day one” executive order banning the teaching of critical race theory and other “divisive concepts.” Other Republican governors who have been vocal about these bans include Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas.(read more)
• Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Bonnie D. Jenkins Announces Kenneth D. Ward as U.S. Special Representative to the Biological Weapons Convention, March 30. By US Department of State. (read more)
• It’s About Time to Build Regional Supply Chains, March 30. By Christopher S. Tang, IndustryWeek. How will the U.S.-China trade war end? When will the COVID pandemic end? What will happen when the Russia-Ukraine war ends? I do not know the answers, but I do believe most global supply chains are going to end. They had a good run over the last few decades, enabling Western companies to grow profitably and helping developing countries alleviate poverty. But concurrent and unprecedented events have blown apart their cost efficiency. To offset increased tariffs on imports from China, U.S. companies have raised their prices, hurting American consumers. (read more)
• US Senate Advances China Competition Legislation, March 30. By Agence France-Press, IndustryWeek. The U.S. Senate voted Monday to greenlight a multibillion-dollar bill aimed at jumpstarting high-tech research and manufacturing, countering China’s growing influence and easing a global shortage of computer chips. The legislation is the upper chamber’s version of the House’s America Competes bill that passed in February. Lawmakers are expected to start negotiations between both parties in the House and Senate to marry the different texts.  (read more)

USA – Algeria

• Secretary Antony J. Blinken at a Press Availability, March 30. By US Department of State. (read more)

USA – India

• Secretary of State Blinken’s Call with Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, March 30. By US Department of State. (read more) 

USA – Iran

• Iran criticises new U.S. sanctions as proof of Washington’s ‘maximum pressure’, March 31. (read more)
• United States Imposes Sanctions on Iran’s Ballistic Missile-Related Activities, March 30. By US Department of State. (read more)

Yemen

• Work ‘in concert’ to help bring Yemen closer to a peaceful future, March 30. By UN News. The peace process in Yemen has been “stalled for too long,” the top UN envoy for the country told a summit meeting on Wednesday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, aiming to build on the Saudi-led coalition’s unilateral declaration of a ceasefire, ahead of the holy month of Ramadan. (UN News)

CRYPTOCURRENCY

• ESG and Crypto: Weighing The Pros and Cons, March 25. By Morgan Stanley. The growing popularity of cryptocurrency has created a new wrinkle for investors—how to balance its potential upside against its inherent environmental and social impacts. A look at both sides of the issue. (read more)

DEFENSE – MILITARY

• U.S., S.Korea seen resuming major military drills as N.Korea tensions rise. March 31. By Josh Smith and Hyonhee Shin, Reuters. Joint South Korean and U.S. military drills set to kick off next month could for the first time in years include more weaponry and troops, and more aggressive messaging as tensions with North Korea rise. Neither the South Korean or U.S. militaries have confirmed what this year’s annual drills may entail, but a recent series of unusual displays of military might in and around the Korean peninsula suggest a more muscular show could be in the works, analysts said. (read more)

ON LIFE (technology, the future of the internet, cybersecurity, data)

• Better understanding of data lifecycles can reduce digital harms March 30. By Jordan Famularo, Brookings. If we are ever to address effectively the harms and risks of digital technology, we first need the right language to describe the systems that collect, analyze, share, and store huge amounts of data about us as consumers, patients, and citizens—often with deleterious effects. Misinformation, attention extraction, discriminatory algorithmic profiling, and cybercrime: These digital harms all emerge from the data ecosystem in which we live, but not in ways we can fully see or explain. (read more)
• Six Steps to Responsible AI in the Federal Government, March 30. By Darrell M. West, Brookings. There is widespread agreement that responsible artificial intelligence requires principles such as fairness, transparency, privacy, human safety, and explainability. Nearly all ethicists and tech policy advocates stress these factors and push for algorithms that are fair, transparent, safe, and understandable. But it is not always clear how to operationalize these broad principles or how to handle situations where there are conflicts between competing goals. It is not easy to move from the abstract to the concrete in developing algorithms and sometimes a focus on one goal comes at the detriment of alternative objectives. (read more)
• Race is On to Remove Lead Pipes from Under the US, March 29. By Christa Campbell, Esri. New federal rules aimed at ridding US drinking water of lead contamination has cities and states hurrying to find and replace millions of lead service lines across the country. Key Takeaways: – New lead and copper replacement guidelines require water utilities across the US to inventory all service lines; – Working from outdated or missing information, operators are using GIS to collect and share accurate data;  – Real-time GIS maps and dashboards keep contractors on track and the public informed. (read more)
• Sondaggio su Industria 4.0: la maggior parte delle aziende è ancora ai blocchi di partenza, March 30. By ImpresaCity. Secondo un sondaggio di YouGov per conto dell’istituto di ricerca Handelsblatt e TeamViewer soltanto meno di un quarto delle aziende europee intervistate (23%) ha iniziato la trasformazione digitale dei processi di produzione. (read more)

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

• Update 37 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine, March 30. By IAEA. The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Mariano Grossi, was at the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) today to meet senior Ukrainian government officials as well as staff, and to start the IAEA’s technical assistance for the safety and security of the country’s nuclear facilities. (read more)
• Russian Migration to Georgia Grows Amidst Putin’s Aggressive War Against Ukraine, March 30. By Giorgi Menabde, The Jamestown Foundation. In a press briefing on March 11, Georgian Interior Minister Vakhtang Gomelauri revealed that approximately 25,000–30,000 Russian citizens had arrived and stayed in Georgia following Russia’s launch of full-scale military aggression against Ukraine (Kommersant, March 11). Most of these individuals were escaping asphyxiating Western sanctions and fear a further escalation of repressions by the Russian authorities. Many Georgians are worried about this process (Civil.ge, March 4). (read more)
• Russian Cossacks and the Continuation of the War in Ukraine, March 30. By Richard Arnold, The Jamestown Foundation. As the Kremlin’s unprovoked large-scale war against Ukraine continues, the Russian Armed Forces are reportedly experiencing chronic supply and troop shortages. And now, evidence is growing that the military has been turning to Russia’s registered Cossack movement to provide more men for the fight as a well as a morale boost for the population. (read more)
• Ukraine in Quest for Internationally Guaranteed Neutrality (Part One), March 30. By Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. Ukraine has abandoned its aspiration to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and is seeking, instead, some form of neutrality under international guarantees. Kyiv aims to achieve this goal after the end of the ongoing war with Russia, but it is already at work on it, looking toward the post-war period. The results of this effort will, however, depend on the post-war political settlement, the shape and timeframe of which are currently unpredictable. (read more)
• Early Warning Brief: China’s Contorted Response to Russia Sanctions, March 30. By Alicia Garcia Herrero, The Jamestown Foundation. The unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine will devastate its economy, but the extent of the severity partially depends on China and how much economic aid it is prepared to extend. (read more)
• Is there too little oversight of private tech companies in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?, March 30. By Nicol Turner Lee and Samantha Lai, Brookings: Since February 2022, Ukrainians have produced streams of live videos of warfare, including missile launches, explosions of critical assets, and the horrendous effects of Russian military aggression on civilians. (read more)
• UK military intelligence says Russian shelling, missile strikes continue in Chernihiv, March 31. By Reuters. (read more)
• Eastern Ukraine braces for fresh Russian offensive, March 31. By  Oleksandr Kozkukhar, Reuters. Ukrainian forces are preparing for new Russian attacks in the east of the country as Moscow deploys more troops there after suffering setbacks near the capital Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday. (read more)
• U.S.-EU Joint Press Release by the EEAS and Department of State on the First U.S.-EU High-Level Dialogue on Russia, March 30. By US Department of State. (read more)
• Ukraine war: Russia used cluster weapons at least 24 times, says UN’s Bachelet, March 30, 2022. By UN News. Credible reports indicate that Russian armed forces have used cluster munitions in populated areas of Ukraine, at least two dozen times since they invaded on 24 February, UN rights chief Michelle Bachelet said on Wednesday. (read more)