COMPLESSITA’, SCENARI, RISCHIO
Allarme inflazione. Dalla fine del 2020, nota Brookings, il tasso di inflazione globale è aumentato drasticamente. La guerra in corso in Ucraina ha messo il carico finale a una situazione già molto difficile. È probabile che le conseguenze per la crescita, la stabilità e la povertà siano terribili. Tra pandemie e guerre, cresce l’insicurezza planetaria. Ed è una insicurezza a molte facce, dal livello geopolitico a quella della coesione sociale. Evocare la pace, anzitutto evitando di soffiare sul fuoco della guerra, dipende da ciascuno di noi e, in particolare, dalle classi dirigenti che ci governano: si ha l’impressione che la brutale invasione messa in pratica da Putin e dal suo gruppo di potere non sia bilanciata da una reale intenzione a lavorare per lo stop di una spirale che ha già intaccato l’economia globale e, dunque, il nostro benessere e la nostra sicurezza. L’inflazione vuol dire, anzitutto, aumento del prezzo delle materie prime: è un tema politico, perché tocca direttamente il cibo che mangiamo, le tasse che paghiamo e, non prioritario in termini di sopravvivenza ma importante, le tecnologie che utilizziamo. E questo può diventare un problema insormontabile per chi è già povero o vive in difficoltà.
Qualcuno guadagna, e molto. Il riarmo generalizzato, in una escalation di paura e di tensione (reali e indotte), è una evidente dinamica del momento che stiamo vivendo. Reuters nota come l’Australia, con USA e UK, stia investendo in missici ipersonici per assicurare pace e stabilità nella regione dell’Indo-Pacifico. La Polonia ha concluso l’acquisto di 250 M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 dagli USA. Da Defense News: “Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak on Tuesday signed a deal worth about $4.75 billion to buy 250 M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 from the United States. “We are strengthening the Polish military, and we are deterring a potential aggressor,” Błaszczak was quoted in a statement released by the ministry”. A leggere di “aggressore potenziale” …
Parliamo di un riarmo che non può fare a meno delle tecnologie emergenti e disruptive. Scrive Nextgov: “Northrop Grumman Corporation and AT&T unveiled joint plans on Tuesday to form and refine a 5G-backed “digital battle network” in support of the Pentagon”.
Saremo anche una piccola voce ma immaginare di raggiungere la pace, in Ucraina e altrove, attraverso il riarmo appare, a essere buoni, una contraddizione.
Tanto si scrive dell’Europa e dei suoi problemi a raggiungere una sostanziale unità politica. La vittoria di Orban in Ungheria, in un sistema di potere ormai consolidato, pone sfide decisive al Vecchio Continente: non solo rispetto alla Russia ma anche nel complesso percorso delle regole dello stato di diritto. Da Council on Foreign Relations.
(di Marco Emanuele)
TODAY:
- AROUND THE WORLD
- DEFENSE – MILITARY – CYBER SECURITY
- PERSPECTIVES
- RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
AROUND THE WORLD
El Salvador
- El Salvador making it harder for murderous gangs to spread messages, April 6. By Nelson Renteria, Reuters. Waging a campaign against gangs responsible for El Salvador having one of the world’s highest murder rates, Congress in the Central American republic passed a bill on Tuesday criminalizing the publication of gang messages, including by news outlets. (read more)
Hong Kong
- Hong Kong arrests six activists on accusation of sedition, April 6. By Jessie Pang, Reuters. Hong Kong police arrested six activists on Wednesday for suspected sedition and contravention of a national security law in connection with what the police called “causing nuisance” at court hearings in December and January. Police, who typically do not identify arrested people, said the six were aged from 32 to 67, had been arrested for “having purposely caused nuisance” during various court hearings they attended. (read more)
- Hong Kong leader says she has not received any resignations from officials, April 6. By Reuters. (read more)
Hungary – Europe
- Does Orban’s Victory in Hungary Change the EU’s Calculus on Russia?, April 5. By Matthias Matthijs, CFR. Prime Minister Viktor Orban won a fourth term in elections where he enjoyed unfair advantages, presenting a thorny challenge for European unity on Russia and the rule of law. (read more)
Iran
- Iran nuclear chief says Tehran has given IAEA documents on outstanding issues, April 6. By Reuters. Iran has handed over documents related to outstanding issues to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Iranian nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami said on Wednesday, as Tehran demands closure of the agency’s investigation into uranium particles found at three undeclared sites. (read more)
Pakistan
- Imran Khan’s Undemocratic Action Deepens Pakistan’s Political Crisis, April 5. By Zahid Hussain, CFR. Prime Minister Imran Khan dissolved Pakistan’s National Assembly to avoid a no confidence vote. The move has severe consequences for the country’s democracy. (read more)
- Pakistan court to hear Khan’s defence of blocking ouster, April 6. By Asif Shahzad and Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam, Reuters. Pakistan’s top court will on Wednesday hear Prime Minister Imran Khan’s legal team defend his bid to block an opposition bid to oust him, a move his critics say was unconstitutional and which has ushered in a new phase of political turmoil. Khan, a former cricket star, lost his parliamentary majority last week and had been facing a no-confidence vote tabled by the opposition that he was expected to lose on Sunday. (read more)
Sri Lanka
- Sri Lanka’s doctors to protest against drugs shortage as crisis persists, April 6. By Devjyot Ghoshal and Uditha Jayasinghe, Reuters. Sri Lankan doctors said they will hold a street protest in the commercial capital Colombo on Wednesday as hospitals run out of essential drugs because of the country’s worst economic crisis in decades, even as the government appealed for calm. (read more)
- In stunning reversal, protests leave Sri Lanka’s ruling dynasty teetering. April 6. By Devjyot Ghoshal and Uditha Jayasinghe, Reuters. In 2020, Mahinda Rajapaksa won elections to become Sri Lanka’s prime minister, serving under his brother and president Gotabaya. In 2021, another sibling, Basil, was named finance minister, tightening the family’s hold on power. Less than a year later, the country’s pre-eminent political dynasty is in trouble, as protesters take to the streets making demands that would have been unthinkable before the economic crisis struck: that the president steps down. (read more)
USA
- School supplies, critical race theory, and virtual prom: A social listening analysis on US education, April 5. By Lauren Ziegler and Rebecca Winthrop, Brookings. The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread disruption to the education sector, and many in the United States took to social media as an outlet for their joys, frustrations, and fears as they relate to schooling. As the pandemic has continued—now into its third year—Americans have voiced their opinions about remote learning and what should be taught in school. At the same time, the pandemic ushered in a new wave of polarization in the U.S., which was evident around things such as whether face masks belong in the classroom and when schools should transition back to in-person learning—with strong held opinions on both sides of the debate. (read more)
DEFENSE – MILITARY – CYBER SECURITY
- A cyber attack forced the wind turbine manufacturer Nordex Group to shut down some of IT systems, April 6. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. Nordex Group, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of wind turbines, was the victim of a cyberattack that forced the company to take down multiple systems. (read more)
- Germany police shut down Hydra Market dark web marketplace, April 6. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office, the Bundeskriminalamt (BKA), announced they have shut down Hydra, one of the world’s largest dark web marketplace. The seizure of the Hydra Market is the result of an international investigation conducted by the Central Office for Combating Cybercrime (ZIT) in partnership with U.S. law enforcement authorities since August 2021. (read more)
- White House Asserts Micromanagement Critique Was About a Previous Administration, April 5. By Mariam Baksh, Nextgov. National Cyber Director Chris Inglis made comments Thursday asserting overinvolvement by the White House in determining the actions of agencies with the responsibility to oversee certain sectors of critical infrastructure. But those statements were in reference to a previous administration, a White House official told Nextgov. Speaking on the role of sector risk management agencies during a meeting of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s cybersecurity advisory committee, Inglis said, “Candidly, I think that what we’ve seen in the past, is the White House, not knowing that that is in fact the responsibility of CISA—and that the [Office of the National Cyber Director] should stand in and assist with that execution—the White House has stood in and micromanaged that, I think in a way that is well intentioned but not helpful.”.
- DOD Advances Toward a 5G-Enabled ‘Digital Battle Network’ With Industry Collaboration, April 5. Northrop Grumman Corporation and AT&T unveiled joint plans on Tuesday to form and refine a 5G-backed “digital battle network” in support of the Pentagon. Through a fresh agreement officializing their anticipated collaboration, the technology company and telecommunications enterprise are set “to deliver a cost-effective, scalable, open architecture solution that will help the [Defense Department] connect distributed sensors, shooters and data from all domains, terrains and forces—similar to how smart devices connect and share data in our everyday lives,” according to an AT&T statement shared with Nextgov on Monday. (read more)
- Marines Push Light Amphib Warship While Navy Secretary Awaits Study. April 5. By Caitlin M. Kenney, Defense One. Marine Corps officials remain adamant about acquiring the Light Amphibious Warship—a vessel that can move groups of roughly 75 troops around the Pacific—but Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro is in no rush as he awaits the results of a study intended to more closely define what such a ship must do. (read more)
- US NORTHCOM again asks for homeland cruise missile defense funding in wish list, April 5. By Jen Judson, Defense News. U.S. Northern Command is asking again for additional funds to develop a homeland cruise missile defense capability in its wish list sent to Capitol Hill. The wish list — or unfunded requirements list — is sent annually to Congress from combatant commands and service leaders and includes items that did not make it into the budget request, but would be desirable if additional funding becomes available. (read more)
- Poland signs $4.75 billion Abrams tank deal as Russia’s war speeds procurements, April 5. By Jaroslaw Adamowski, Defense News. Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak on Tuesday signed a deal worth about $4.75 billion to buy 250 M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 from the United States. “We are strengthening the Polish military, and we are deterring a potential aggressor,” Błaszczak was quoted in a statement released by the ministry. (read more)
- Top defense officials acknowledge Pentagon used ‘incorrect’ inflation rate to draft budget, April 5. By Bryant Harris, Defense News. Top Pentagon officials said Tuesday the Defense Department used an inaccurately low inflation rate when formulating the fiscal 2023 budget proposal. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Pentagon comptroller Mike McCord all acknowledged the budget does not adequately reflect the current rate of inflation during their testimony on the budget before the House Armed Services Committee. (read more)
- Australia says defence buildup about peace and stability, April 6. By Reuters. Australia’s involvement in the development of hypersonic missiles with treaty partners the United States and Britain was part of an effort to achieve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Wednesday. (read more)
PERSPECTIVES
- Is high inflation here to stay ?, April 5. By Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge, Brookings. For nearly a half century, global inflation rates were headed one way: down. Since the early 1970s, supported by structural factors that included globalization, better policy frameworks, big demographic changes, and rapid technological advances, the world achieved a remarkable decline in inflation. But since late 2020, the global inflation rate has risen sharply to over six percent due to unprecedented policy support for inflation, the release of pent-up demand, persistent supply disruptions, and surging commodity prices. The commodity price surge triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last month is adding to these price pressures. The consequences for growth, stability, and poverty are likely to be terrible. (read more)
RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
- Ukraine’s Luhansk region tells civilians to evacuate ‘while it is safe’, April 6. By Natalia Zinets, Reuters. Authorities in the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk urged civilians on Wednesday to evacuate “while it is safe,” warning that Russian bombardments could cut off escape routes. (read more)
- Russian forces pound key cities as West prepares new sanctions, April 6. By Oleksandr Kozkukhar and Natalia Zinets, Reuters. Russian artillery pounded the Ukrainian cities of Mariupol and Kharkiv on Wednesday as the West prepared more sanctions against Moscow in response to civilian killings that Kyiv and its allies have called war crimes. (read more)
- Russia-linked Armageddon APT targets Ukrainian state organizations, April 5. By Pierluigi Paganini. Ukraine CERT-UA published a security advisory to warn of spear-phishing attacks conducted by Russia-linked Armageddon APT (aka Gamaredon, Primitive Bear, Armageddon, Winterflounder, or Iron Tilden) targeting local state organizations. The phishing messages have been sent from “vadim_melnik88@i[.]ua,” the campaign aims at infecting the target systems with malware. (read more)
- Anonymous targets Russian Military and State Television propaganda, April 5. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. Anonymous leaked personal details of the Russian military stationed in Bucha where the Russian military carried out a massacre of civilians that are accused of having raped and shot local women and children. Leaked data include names, ranks and passport details of Russians serving in the 64 Motor Rifle Brigade which occupied Bucha prior to March 31. (read more)
- Are US Troops Still Training Ukrainians?, April 6. By Elizabeth Howe, Defense One. The Defense Department has provided several conflicting answers in recent days regarding whether or not U.S. personnel are training Ukrainians. On Tuesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley added their voices, but no particular clarity, to the discussion. (read more)
- Satellite Firms Are Helping Debunk Russian Claims, Intel Chief Says, April 5. By Tara Copp, Defense One. The U.S. intelligence community asked certain commercial satellite companies for help in the earliest days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and their imagery remains vital to countering Russia’s false claims, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said Tuesday. (read more)
- Don’t Sleep on Russian Information-War Capabilities, April 5. By Alyssa Demus and Christopher Paul, Defense One. Last month, when CIA Director Bill Burns appeared before the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee to speak on the situation in Ukraine, he was asked about Russia’s use of disinformation and counter-narratives as instruments to legitimize its invasion. “This is one information war that I think Putin is losing,” Burns responded. He is not alone in his view. The Washington Post and CNBC have run separate articles under the headline: “Ukraine is winning the information war” against Russia. (read more)
- Hungary’s foreign ministry summons Ukrainian ambassador, April 6. By Reuters. (read more)
- U.S., allies ready new Russian sanctions after Bucha killings, April 6. By Oleksandr Kozkukhar, Reuters. The United States and its allies on Wednesday prepared new sanctions on Moscow over civilian killings which President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described as “war crimes”, as heavy fighting and Russian airstrikes pounded the besieged port of Mariupol. (read more)
- Ukraine’s Deeply Flawed Blueprint for Guaranteed Neutrality (Part Three), April 5. By Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. Invaded Ukraine is negotiating under duress for a two-part deal with the invader Russia: a bilateral treaty on the terms of ending the war and another treaty by which Russia and a number of Western countries would jointly guarantee Ukraine’s security in the future. The first treaty would commit Ukraine to permanent neutrality (or non-bloc status), which would keep Ukraine not only out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) but from any military or security alliance of which Russia is not a member. The second treaty would, in essence, bestow international legitimacy on an arrangement already imposed by Russia on Ukraine; and it would install Russia among the guarantor powers, undoubtedly with blocking rights. This construction gives Russia impregnable advantages over Ukraine in the negotiation process and its eventual outcome (see EDM, March 30, 31, April 4). (read more)
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5. By Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Karolina Hird, ISW. Russian forces continued to reposition to continue their invasion in eastern and southern Ukraine, having abandoned the attack on Kyiv. They have largely completed their withdrawal from the Kyiv area and are reportedly redeploying some of the withdrawn combat forces from Belarus to Russia.Ukrainian forces are moving to regain control over segments of the state border in Chernihiv, having already done so in Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Russian troops are pulling back toward Russia along the Sumy axis as well, but it is not yet clear if they intend to retreat all the way back to the border or will try to hold some forward positions on the Sumy axis. (read more)
