One of the most significant outcomes of the Israeli-Iranian war has been the decline of Tehran’s regional influence and the increased vulnerability of its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah. This shift presents a historic opportunity to resolve the issue of Hezbollah’s weaponry once and for all, especially in light of mounting US pressure on the Lebanese state. A “step-for-step” mechanism is likely to be adopted as the most viable framework to address the issue of disarming Hezbollah. Under this approach, any tangible steps taken by the party to hand over its weapons would be matched by Israeli actions, such as withdrawal from occupied territories, release of Lebanese detainees and formal commitments to cease attacks on Lebanon and Hezbollah. The Lebanese state faces considerable operational limitations – especially in terms of its military and logistical capacity – which hinder its ability to enforce a full monopoly on the possession of arms. This makes temporary security arrangements, including cooperation with Syria, a likely scenario, particularly for maintaining security in the Bekaa Valley and along the eastern and northern borders.
Lebanon’s Path to Reclaiming Sovereignty: Implications of the Israel-Iran War for Hezbollah’s Status and Weaponry (Emirates Policy Center)
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