Ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi won Iran’s 13th Presidential election with a majority amidst the lowest voter turnout in Iran’s political history. Under Raisi, who is extremely close to Ayatollah Khamenei, foreign policy is expected to follow a similar trajectory because most foreign policy decisions are taken with the approval of the Supreme Leader. But, Iran’s foreign policy in Afghanistan could undergo a change and it could get much more deeply involved, owing to Raisi’s ideological considerations and his emphasis on reviving Iran’s economy, on which stability in a post-US Afghanistan will have a very direct bearing as it is one of Iran’s most important economic partners. Resultantly, instability, which seems entirely likely in a post-US Afghanistan, will be viewed unfavourably by Tehran and Raisi, giving the Islamic Republic a formidable reason to act. However, Iran’s deeper involvement in Afghanistan, with multiple violent stakeholders harbouring varied interests and ideologies will only cause friction amongst these groups, exacerbating the abysmal security scenario in the country.
How Ebrahim Raisi could exacerbate the security situation in Afghanistan | ORF (orfonline.org)
Iran exports to Afghanistan over the years. Source: Trading Economics
