Geostrategic magazine (october 28, 2022)

• Le tattiche e la storia – Tactics and History
• La pace è interesse nazionale – Peace is national interest
• I fantasmi del passato e il futuro già presente – The ghosts of the past and the future already present
• Sovranità alimentare non è sovranismo – Food sovereignty is not sovereignism
• Sovranità, nazione e società aperta – Sovereignty, nation and open society

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

TOPICS

• (Cybersecurity) Bronte Munro, The Strategist. The Indo-Pacific’s importance to the security of Australia and regional allies continues to dominate public discourse. Last month, the Quad foreign ministers from Australia, India, Japan and the United States released a joint statement on ransomware, recognising that vulnerabilities in cyberspace are compromising the security of critical national infrastructure and economic continuity in the region. Quad’s ransomware commitment could help shore up regional software supply chains

WORLDS

• (Australia) Brendan Nicholson, The Strategist. As one of Australia’s most experienced past defence ministers, Kim Beazley has strategic issues still front of mind. He brought this strategic lens with him when he became governor of Western Australia and used the weight of that position to drive discussion on the strategic importance to the nation and its allies of the rare earths and other materials being mined in Australia. Beazley says rare-earth processing must be a strategic priority for Australia
• (Australia) David Uren, The Strategist. Treasurer Jim Chalmers may talk about the tough times that Australia confronts, but the fine print of his budget papers reveals the extraordinary bounty which the global energy crisis is delivering to the federal budget and the Australian economy at large. Australia’s extraordinary budget windfall could presage a painful return to earth
• (Burkina Faso – Wagner Group) Dario Cristiani, Affari Internazionali. Il 30 settembre 2022, Ibrahim Traoré, capitano dell’esercito del Burkina Faso, ha estromesso con un colpo di Stato il tenente colonnello Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, presidente ad interim che sua volta aveva preso il potere con un colpo di stato solo otto mesi prima. Questi due colpi di stato hanno segnato la fine del breve periodo democratico avutosi in Burkina Faso dopo il 2014-2015, quando il dittatore storico burkinabé, il presidente Blaise Compaoré, fu deposto in seguito a una rivolta popolare dopo il suo tentativo di aggirare i limiti di mandato costituzionali. Le milizie Wagner soffiano sul fuoco del caos in Burkina Faso
• (Estonia) Alessandro Turci, Aspenia online. I rapporti tra i Paesi baltici e la vicina Russia presentano, sul piano storico come su quello attuale, evidenti criticità. Ma proprio per questa ragione occorre evitare, in sede di analisi, di acuirli con stereotipi o sofisticate gabbie ideologiche poco utili a una disamina oggettiva. Estonia, segnali dalla “buffer zone”
• (Europe – Middle East) Maria Luisa Fantappie, Affari Internazionali. In atto da un decennio, il graduale disimpegno degli Stati Uniti in Medio Oriente ha lasciato agli attori regionali – Turchia, Iran, Arabia Saudita e Israele – un più ampio margine di manovra per ridefinire le rispettive linee di influenza, innescando un processo di assestamento che fa oscillare la regione tra diplomazia regionale e rischio di un ritorno al conflitto. Impegnata in un altro conflitto in Ucraina, l’Europa si trova meno attrezzata per affrontare le sfide di questa fase di assestamento – avendo aumentato la sua dipendenza energetica dal Medio Oriente e dal Nord Africa e quella securitaria dall’alleanza atlantica, di cui la Turchia fa parte.  Una nuova fase per le relazioni tra Europa e Medio Oriente
• (Iran) Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Johanna Moore, Nicholas Carl, and Frederick W. Kagan with LJ Trevette, Institute for the Study of War. Protesters are establishing routines for when they protest and how they prepare. Iran Crisis Update, October 27
• (Koreas) Josh Smith, Soo-Hyang Choi, Reuters. North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) off its east coast on Friday, South Korea’s military said, while South Korean forces were wrapping up nearly two weeks of exercises aimed at deterring their northern neighbour. North Korea fires two missiles into sea as South Korea wraps up drills
• (Lebanon – Israel) Andrea Dessì, Yasmina Dionisi, Affari Internazionali. A meno di un mese dall’annuncio dello storico accordo marittimo Libano-Israele, la Corte suprema israeliana spiana la strada per la ratifica, respingendo le petizioni che avrebbero costretto il governo di Yair Lapid a sottoporre la bozza di accordo ad un voto in parlamento (Knesset). Libano-Israele: le incognite sull’accordo marittimo
• (Pakistan) Amin Saikal, The Strategist. Among all the nuclear-armed states, Pakistan is the most fragile. The country keeps lurching from one crisis to another. The latest arises from the election commission’s banning of the former but popular Prime Minister Imran Khan from holding public office. Khan has vowed to fight the ban to the bitter end, putting him at odds with Pakistan’s powerful military whose favour he has lost. This power struggle may change Pakistan’s political paradigm. The struggle for Pakistan
• (Russia – North Korea) Artyom Lukin, East Asia Forum. Moscow’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine has ushered in a new geopolitical reality. The Kremlin and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) may become increasingly close, perhaps even to the point of resurrecting the quasi-alliance that existed during the Cold War. The rebirth of the Russia–North Korea alliance
• (Russia – Ukraine) Alessandro Pascolini, Affari Internazionali. Negli ultimi giorni, in particolare dopo il messaggio televisivo di Vladimir Putin del 21 settembre e il suo discorso del 30 settembre, è cresciuta la preoccupazione che Mosca possa usare armi nucleari “tattiche” nella sua guerra contro l’Ucraina. Tre scenari di escalation nucleare in Ucraina
• (Russia – Ukraine) Richard Arnold, The Jamestown Foundation. A recently completed investigation demonstrates that the main goal of the Russian-forced re-location of Ukrainian children to Russia is so they can be raised to value their “true” heritage, which has drawn the ire of Kyiv (Ukrainian.voanews.com, October 22). The shared cultural heritage of Russia and Ukraine forms the ostensible justification for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s re-invasion of Ukraine—that Ukrainians are really Russians who have forgotten (or been lured away by Western corruption) their “true” identity. One such shared common legacy is that of the Cossacks who have their spiritual center in (Ukrainian) Zaporizhzhia. The Ghosts of ‘Taras Bul’ba’
• (Russia – Ukraine) Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. Russia designates its all-out aggression in Ukraine as a “special military operation,” avoiding the term “war.” Nevertheless, the Kremlin has imposed a “state of war” (voyennoye polozhenie) in the Russian-occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine. This decision caps the declaration of a partial military mobilization in Russia on September 21, the fraudulent blitz referendums staged in the four regions from September 23 to 27 and the constitutional procedures carried out in Moscow between September 28 and October 5 proclaiming the annexation of these regions to Russia (see EDM, September 23, “Blitz Referendums” and “Novorossiya Project”; September 28, October 3, 12, 13). Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions Under the Russian State of War (Part One)
• (Russia – Ukraine) Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. The Ukrainian army’s liberation campaign in Kherson region has ground to a halt. This should not be surprising as the army is insufficiently equipped with heavy long-range artillery, tanks and helicopters. Hopes that the Ukrainian army would advance and liberate Kherson mainly on the strength of their superior morale and leadership, as well as Russian deficiencies, have not been borne out. Ukrainian forces do not seem to have significantly advanced beyond the 500 square kilometers they held as of October 7 on the northern fringes of the 28,500-square-kilometer Kherson region (see EDM, October 12). Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions Under the Russian State of War (Part Two)
• (Russia – Ukraine) Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. Ukrainian military intelligence is reporting this week that “the special services of the Russian Federation are preparing a campaign to discredit the national movements of the peoples of Russia” (T.me/DIUkraine, October 25). Moscow Alarmed by Growing Non-Russian Nationalism and Ukraine’s Role in It
• (Russia – Ukraine) George Barros, Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for the Study of War. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to reject the idea of Ukrainian sovereignty in a way that is fundamentally incompatible with serious negotiations. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27
• (Russia – Ukraine – Asia) Michael Wesley, The Interpreter. The war in Ukraine is now the largest conventional (inter-state) conflict since the Korean War across a range of measures: battlefield deaths, personnel committed, ordnance used. It is also the first proxy war between nuclear-armed powers since the Russian intervention into Syria. It is therefore not unreasonable to ask what the effects of the Ukraine conflict are beyond that country and Europe. The Korean War played a significant role in hardening the Cold War stand-off, not only through prompting the creation of US alliances in Asia, but in deepening commitments to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the Warsaw Pact in Europe. The war in Ukraine: implications for Asia
• (Russia – Ukraine – Iran)  Lauren Kahn, Council on Foreign Relations. Russia is targeting Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure with Iranian-made loitering munitions. Are these weapons effective in shaping the war?  Can Iranian Drones Turn Russia’s Fortunes in the Ukraine War?
• (Turkey – Ukraine) Can Sezer, Reuters.  Turkish defence company Baykar is planning to complete the construction of its manufacturing plant in Ukraine in two years, its chief executive said on Thursday, after the company became highly renowned for their drones’ success in thwarting Russian forces. Turkey’s Baykar to complete plant in Ukraine in two years -CEO
• (Ukraine) Josh Rudolph and Norman Eisen, Brookings. Expectations were not high going into Tuesday’s conference in Berlin convened by the German Presidency of the G7 and the European Commission on Ukrainian Recovery and Reconstruction. In one respect, those low expectations were met—the conference failed to deliver concrete pledges of donor money or agree upon an architecture to deliver reconstruction assistance. Takeaway from Berlin Ukraine recovery conference: Donor coordination for Ukraine is coming but not here yet
• (Ukraine) Giedrimas Jeglinskas, Atlantic Council. When it comes to Russia’s war of aggression, the goal now is for Ukraine to win, and win they must—on their own terms. But it is never too early to think about the post-war reconstruction and how to reimagine the nation’s future. Tuesday’s International Expert Conference on the Recovery, Reconstruction, and Modernization of Ukraine was a step in the right direction for at least one important reason—the second-to-none seniority of the participants. With German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressing attendees in Berlin, no one can claim that the conference lacked political weight. The ambition is there to rebuild Ukraine. Here’s how to make it work
• (USA) Giampiero Gramaglia, Affari Internazionali. Pensando alle elezioni di medio termine dell’8 novembre negli Stati Uniti, noi in Europa ci chiediamo se, dopo il voto, cambierà qualcosa nella linea sul conflitto in Ucraina dell’Amministrazione Biden; se il presidente Usa incontrerà o meno il russo Vladimir Putin al Vertice del G20 a Bali in Indonesia (15 e 16 novembre) e se la tensione con la Cina su Taiwan salirà ancora. Ma la guerra e le tensioni sulla scena internazionale non sono in cima ai pensieri degli elettori statunitensi, che vanno alle urne pensando all’andamento dell’economia e alla tutela dei diritti. Midterm: la ‘valanga rossa’ che potrebbe travolgere gli Stati Uniti
• (USA) Jordan Famularo and Richmond Wong, Brookings. In the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade last summer, journalists and privacy advocates alike quickly sounded the alarm about the potential for prosecutors to use commercially collected data in abortion-related cases.  How the tech sector can protect personal data post-Roe
• (USA) John Villasenor, Brookings. Perhaps the single most important question relating to the role of government with respect to social media is this: Can the largest social media companies be regulated as common carriers? This question is particularly timely given two recent federal appeals courts decisions. Social media companies and common carrier status: a primer
• (USA) Lauren Bauer, Wendy Edelberg, and Sara Estep, Brookings. In this economic analysis, we use the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to determine the degree to which firms that are looking to hire a significant number of workers can expand employment (a “hot” labor market) or cannot (a “tight” labor market). We provide evidence that the job openings-to-hires and job opening-to-net hires ratiosare worthwhile additions to the list of indicators that assess the state of the labor market. A closer look at a hot labor market
• (USA) Council on Foreign Relations. Renewing America Series: A New Path Forward on Immigration Reform
• (USA)  Jonathan Panikoff, Atlantic Council. Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter, likely to be completed by tomorrow and at the original price, comes at a time of increased public scrutiny for the world’s richest man over his closeness with Moscow, his threat—and quick backtracking—to end SpaceX’s provision of the Starlink internet service in Ukraine, and the public disclosure of his plan to cut 75 percent of Twitter’s workforce. Unsurprisingly, the US government is purportedly seeking to review the sale of Twitter. (On Monday, the White House denied that Musk’s purchase was under national security review.). US economic tools: The frontline of protecting national security—maybe even from Twitter
• (USA) Atlantic Council. On Thursday, the Pentagon released its long-awaited 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS), along with the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and Missile Defense Review (MDR). Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin wrote in the strategy’s introduction that it will shape the department’s priorities during the coming “decisive decade—from helping to protect the American people, to promoting global security, to seizing new strategic opportunities, and to realizing and defending our democratic values.” Does the strategy succeed? Does it adequately address Russian aggression in Ukraine and the multifaceted challenges from China? What’s missing? Seven things you need to know about the new US National Defense Strategy
• (USA – China) Yvette To, East Asia Forum. US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and President Joe Biden’s pledge that the United States would defend the island have escalated tensions in the Taiwan Strait. At the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, President Xi Jinping stressed the importance of reunifying with Taiwan. Semiconductor tensions chip away at cross-Strait relations
• (USA – Marshall Islands) JJ Rose, The Interpreter. The Marshall Islands, clustered in the vast reaches of the Pacific between Australia and Hawaii, are set to renew an agreement with the United States in a process that carries broad geopolitical implications for all powers making a beeline to such Pacific capitals as Majuro of late, including Australia. The remote Marshall Islands complicate US Pacific policy