COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
(Liam Karr – Institute for the Study of War) The Africa File provides regular analysis and assessments of major developments regarding state and nonstate actors’ activities in Africa that undermine regional stability and threaten US personnel and interests.
(Yemi Osinbajo – Brookings) Africa is faced with not one, but two existential challenges. There is climate change itself, warming up the continent faster than any other region of the world. And despite emitting the least to global emissions, Africa remains the most vulnerable to the worst of its ravages. Then there is the added challenge of energy poverty and lack of access, and its implications for the survival of Africa’s 1.4 billion people, 580 million of whom have no access to energy. More than 150 million Africans have access to unreliable energy and nearly 1 billion have no access to clean cooking, leading to 600,000 avoidable deaths per year.
Africa: Navigating the energy transition | Brookings
Canada
(James MacCarthy, Alexandra Tyukavina, Mikaela Weisse and Nancy Harris – World Resources Institute) Canada’s 2023 wildfires made international headlines, causing billions of dollars in property damage, displacing thousands of people from their homes, and spewing air pollution that traveled as far as Europe and China. A new analysis shows that the wildfires also had a massive effect on greenhouse gas emissions.
Canada’s 2023 Forest Fires Caused Major Climate Impact | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
China
(Spencer Feingold – World Economic Forum) China has set ambitious goals for economic growth. Experts maintain that new avenues of growth and high-quality growth will be critical for the Chinese economy.
Where is China’s economy headed? | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
China – Africa
(Chido Munyati – World Economic Forum) China has become Africa’s largest trading partner and creditor in recent years under programmes such as the Belt and Road Initiative. Now, China-Africa economic relations are entering a new chapter as both face a global economic slowdown. China’s private sector is now likely to lead trade and investment in Africa, while new initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will promote the growth of regional value chains by offering Chinese businesses access to a larger unified African market.
Understanding evolving China-Africa economic relations | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
European Union – China
(Bart Dessein, Jasper Roctus – EGMONT – The Royal Institute for International Relations) While still a powerhouse in its own right, Europe’s relative influence on the world stage has been diminishing over the last few decades. Data, for example, highlight a significant shift in global trade patterns away from the old continent. According to a recent Brookings’ calculation, South-South trade had by 2009, i.e., around the time of the global financial crisis, increased from 10.9 per cent to 25.0 per cent worldwide. South-South trade thus surpassed North-North trade for the first time in world history. Today, 35.0 per cent of global trade is accounted for by South-South merchandise trade, and just 25.0 per cent of global trade is North-North trade. One important factor in this is a surging China-Africa trade. With China’s bilateral trade with Africa rising from 2.7 billion dollar in 1990 to 209 billion dollar in 2022, China has now become Africa’s single largest trading partner.
France
“I cannot pretend that nothing has happened,” stated French President Emmanuel Macron on June 9, as he called snap elections for the National Assembly following the stifling defeat of his Renaissance party in the European elections. The situation in France is now uncertain with the far right surging. Ahead of the elections, our experts are breaking down the biggest issues to watch and what the election might mean for France in a critical era for the transatlantic community.
Your primer on France’s snap elections – Atlantic Council
Global Economy
(Mirek Dušek – World Economic Forum) Harnessing the power of innovation to fuel intelligent economies is necessary to avoid the decade becoming the ‘Tepid Twenties’. Sovereignty and security regarding technology must be balanced with openness and interoperability. ‘Intelligent economies’ should serve people and the planet, beginning with a fully realized energy transition.
Why cooperation is essential to build ‘intelligent economies’ | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
India
(Rajiv Bhatia – Gateway House) Prime Minister Modi’s third term began with India’s participation at the BRICS Foreign Ministers Meeting in Russia and the Outreach Session of G7 in Italy. India’s participation at both conferences highlighted New Delhi’s continuing preoccupation with great powers. How Indian diplomacy navigates ties between the West and BRICS will shape and decide its strategic autonomy in a multipolar world.
BRICS and G7: India’s trapeze act – Gateway House
(World Resources Institute) In India, the micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSME) sector plays a significant role, contributing to 45 percent of the country’s manufacturing. This sector is responsible for approximately 25 percent of the overall energy consumption within the industrial sector. This paper delves into policies, schemes, and programs between 2010-2020, geared toward bolstering energy efficiency, fostering the adoption of clean energy sources, and mitigating SMEs’ carbon footprint. The paper also examines policies across Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Himachal Pradesh.
Latin America
(World Resources Institute) The World Resources Institute and the Laudato Si’ Research Institute, Campion Hall, University of Oxford, in partnership with local researchers and communities in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico explore how religious actors shape strategies to find peaceful resolutions to socio-environmental disputes in their regions.
(Carrick Reddin, Séverine Deneulin and Carlos Zepeda – World Resources Institute) “If we lose nature, we lose ourselves, too.” Those were the words of one female faith leader whose community was endangered by construction of the Belo Monte Dam in Altamira, Brazil. The dam, which started operating in 2016, flooded Indigenous land and displaced more than 40,000 families, many of whom are still waiting for adequate resettlement. Construction also led to severe environmental damage, leading local fishers to talk of “the dam killing off the river.”
Faith Groups in Latin America Are Defending Land and Lives | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Ashka Jhaveri, Alexandra Braverman, Andie Parry, Nicholas Carl, Kathryn Tyson, Katherine Wells, and Johanna Moore – Institute for the Study of War) Iranian hardliners have made only limited progress toward uniting behind a single candidate ahead of the Iranian presidential election on June 28. Remaining divisions among the hardliners by the time of the vote significantly increases the likelihood of a runoff election.
Iran Update, June 27, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Max Meizlish, Sinan Ciddi – Foundation for Defense of Democracies) The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is expected to announce on Friday whether it will remove Turkey from its so-called grey list of jurisdictions that warrant increased monitoring. While Turkey anticipates its removal, such a decision could significantly undermine efforts to curb Ankara’s role as a well-documented hub for terror finance.
Turkey Should Remain on FATF Grey List (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pledged on June 26 to back Lebanon if a full-scale war breaks out between Iran’s terrorist proxy Hezbollah and Israel. In a speech to parliamentarians from his ruling Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdogan claimed that Israel had “turned its eyes on Lebanon after destroying and burning Gaza.” Ignoring Hezbollah’s unprovoked cross-border attacks — which began in the wake of October 7 Hamas atrocities in Israel, displacing more than 60,000 Israelis from their homes in the north — Erdogan said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “plans to spread the war to the region will lead to a big catastrophe” and that “Turkey stands with the brotherly people and state of Lebanon.” Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz rebuked Erdogan’s remarks, calling the Turkish president “a war criminal who slaughters innocent Kurds across the Syrian border and tries to deny Israel its right to self-defense” against an Iran-backed terrorist organization.
Erdogan Backs Hezbollah in War with Israel (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) On the eve of Iran’s June 28 presidential election, the Islamic Republic’s leaders have bolstered efforts to drive voters to the polls. Yet the clerical regime faces widespread disillusionment with a process dismissed by vast swathes of the Iranian public as engineered to reinforce the power of the ruling theocracy. In a June 25 speech marking the Shi’a Islamic holiday of Eid al-Ghadir, the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, called for “maximum” turnout. Since Iran’s 12-member Guardian Council screens all candidates for the presidential election and permitted only six of them to run, Khamenei believes that a high turnout legitimizes Iran’s fundamentally undemocratic system regardless of the outcome.
(Sinan Ciddi – Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Turkey is likely to play a dangerous and unpredictable role in any potential conflict between Israel and Lebanon. Conventionally, Ankara has been interested in limiting Tehran’s regional influence. Lebanon has been a premier theater where Ankara has spent diplomatic energies building ties with its government and deliberately kept Hezbollah—Iran’s flagship proxy terrorist organization in Lebanon—at arm’s length.
Will Turkey Work With Hezbollah? (fdd.org)
(Behnam Ben Taleblu – Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Less than a day after U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein was in Beirut to again meet with Lebanese officials to press for an “urgent” end to the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah took to the airwaves to once again threaten to expand the conflict against Israel to new geographies.
Hezbollah’s Missiles And Growing Military Might Are A True Threat (fdd.org)
(Oussama Boudhrioua – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) For decades, Tunisians have viewed their country’s relationship with the West as a relationship built on a sense of mutual alliance. Tunisia has long seen itself as a vital ally for both the United States and Europe; in 2012 a host of bilateral and multilateral agreements solidified the economic and political ties between Tunisia and Europe, and in 2015 Washington deemed Tunisia a Major Non-NATO Ally. These relationships span much of the past century; aside from being under French and Italian control during the colonial period, Tunisia became a key site of conflict in the North African theater during World War II, when Allied forces eventually broke into the Italian peninsula from the south. And for many Tunisians coming of age in the 1990s, the United States was seen as the ideal model of a superpower.
Renavigating a Soft Power Relationship Between the West and Tunisia | The Washington Institute
(Noam Raydan – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) The immediate effects of the Houthi antishipping campaign are measurably serious, but the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other partners also need to prepare for the emboldened group to exert its newfound leverage in other ways beyond the Gaza war.
(Lina Khatib – Chatham House) The Gaza conflict has changed the rules of engagement between Israel and Hezbollah. Prior to 7 October, they both adhered to a de facto code of conflict that had been in place since their 2006 war.
Mexico – Middle East
(Mauricio D. Aceves – Gateway House) On June 3, Claudia Sheinbaum made history by becoming the first woman elected President of Mexico. In terms of foreign policy and carving a geopolitical identity, this marks the beginning of a new stage of Mexican integration into the global agenda. It provides another dimension for international stability, including a revitalized Mexican perspective of the Middle East.
A new Mexico for a new Middle East – Gateway House
NATO
(James Goldgeier, Elizabeth N. Saunders – Brookings) The second half of 2024 is shaping up tobe an anxious time for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the U.S.-led alliance bloc that comprises 32 member states across North America and Europe and exists to help protect each other from external threats. The Russian military continues to ravage Ukraine and menace the alliance’s doorstep, while Russia is already fighting a kind of hybrid war against member states. Meanwhile, domestic political challenges are mounting on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, far-right parties appear to be gaining strength, so much so in France that President Emmanuel Macron called early parliamentary elections. Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right National Rally, has advocated for taking French troops out of the U.S.-led NATO integrated command and for a rapprochement between NATO and Russia, whose president, Vladimir Putin, she has openly praised in the past.
NATO is on the ballot in 2024 | Brookings
Russia
(Ian Hill – Lowy The Interpreter) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit last week to Pyongyang and Hanoi captured headlines around the world. But it was hardly unexpected – indeed, a logical step in Russia’s post-Ukraine invasion tilt to Asia seeking friends and markets.
Putin in Asia: Setting a cat among the pigeons | Lowy Institute
(Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov recently claimed that 520,000 workers have been added to the country’s military-industrial complex since the beginning of 2023, though he conceded that the sector is still facing a deficit of 160,000 employees. These estimates, however, misrepresent a complicated situation in properly replacing retired employees while hoping to maintain the size of the workforce. The deficit is likely more serious than Manturov admits. Problems in the workforce, especially in defense production, put limitations on arms manufacturing rates and compromise Moscow’s ability to maintain its war machine.
Workforce Shortages Plague Russian Arms Manufacturing – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow’s forces in Ukraine face increasing problems with the military, both at the front and at home. These issues are bound to affect Russia’s ability to fight in the coming months. At the front, Russian commanders are dealing with fragging, desertions, and corruption. At home, Moscow has been compelled to offer larger bonuses to recruit more men and has even asked Russians to turn in their privately owned guns. Public hostility is growing toward veterans of the war, who are committing violent crimes upon their return. These are precisely the people Putin says will become Russia’s new elite.
Fragging, Desertions, and Other Problems Mounting for Russian Invaders – Jamestown
(Robin Brooks, Ben Harris – Brookings) The price cap on Russian oil and refined products, conceived and implemented in the wake of Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, was a novel attempt to reduce revenue from oil exports while maintaining global price stability. Successful application of the cap demands continued attention by the price cap coalition to sanction private entities that violate its terms. A particularly relevant issue today is whether further enforcement actions can dissuade Russia from utilizing an expanded “shadow fleet” to circumvent the terms of the price cap—and whether more aggressive sanctions enforcement will surge the price of oil. In this note, we argue that the coalition should sanction 15 Sovcomflot tankers that are especially active, shutting them down as a means of transport for Russia’s oil trade. Historical experience suggests that this enforcement measure is unlikely to have even a modest impact on global oil prices.
Why the US should sanction more Russian tankers | Brookings
Space
(Cassandra Steer – Lowy The Interpreter) China has successfully returned samples from the dark side of the Moon to Earth, a world first. China’s mission demonstrates that it is out ahead with its technologies, but it’s not alone in reaching for the Moon. Russia is collaborating with China on the International Lunar Research Station. India also successfully landed on the south pole of the Moon in March this year having developed a space program in a fraction of the time and at a fraction of the cost of traditional space powers. Japan’s robotic lander survived more freezing lunar nights than was expected after landing in February this year. The US Artemis Program aims to put the first woman and first person of colour on the Moon, part of a mission to establish a long-term lunar presence.
China’s mission to Moon rocks geopolitics | Lowy Institute
Taiwan
(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist) Politicking by the Chinese Communist Party has blocked Taiwanese membership of Interpol since 1984, preventing the timely sharing of criminal information and intelligence. The absence of Taiwan in the world’s largest international police organisation weakens global security, to the advantage of organised crime.
Taiwan’s exclusion from Interpol is the world’s loss | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Matthew Sperzel and Daniel Shats – Institute for the Study of War) The PRC has increased its violations of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone since President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration on May 20. Four Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered restricted waters around Kinmen on June 25. A likely state-sponsored PRC cyber threat actor is conducting persistent network infiltration operations against various Taiwanese organizations. The PRC Supreme People’s Court and other institutions issued an authoritative legal opinion that threatens advocates of Taiwanese independence with criminal penalties up to the death penalty. Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan passed a controversial legislative reform bill unchanged after a government-mandated second review. President Lai Ching-te signed the bill into law but pledged to file for a constitutional interpretation. CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping convened a Military Commission Political Work Conference to emphasize the need to maintain strict military discipline and uphold Party governance.
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, June 27, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) At the start of a meeting here with newly inaugurated Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te last week, my mind wandered to an encounter just a year ago with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his fortified Kyiv headquarters, with air-raid sirens providing background music.
Dispatch from Taiwan: Countering the Beijing strangler – Atlantic Council
UK – Indo Pacific – European Union
(Ben Bland – Chatham House) UK political debate about the Indo-Pacific has been closely linked with Europe policy since Brexit. The Conservative government pitched its tilt to the Indo-Pacific as evidence that the UK can prosper and even expand its global role outside of the European Union (EU).
Ukraine
(Riley Bailey, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) Russian forces have sustained the tempo of their offensive operations in the Toretsk direction since activating in the area on June 18 and likely aim to reduce a Ukrainian salient in the area, but there is little current likelihood of rapid Russian gains near Toretsk. Russian forces have committed only limited forces to this operation so far, which suggests that Russian forces continue to prioritize gradual advances through consistent grinding assaults over operationally significant gains through rapid maneuver.
(Hlib Parfonov – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s long war against Ukraine has highlighted the importance of front-line air defense systems as well as the accompanying munitions and reconnaissance/communication capabilities. The proliferation of precision air attack weapons and the unprecedented number of simultaneous air threats have elevated the importance of not only implementing more modern systems but also possessing a large quantity of them. Increased logistical support, improved communications, and more high-tech detection systems will be critical for Ukraine to maximize the potential of its air defense assets in disrupting Russian dominance in the air.
The State of Ukrainian Air Defense (Part Two) – Jamestown
USA
(Council on Foreign Relations) A guide to the presidential candidates and their positions on global issues.
The 2024 Candidates on Foreign Policy (cfr.org)
USA – China
(Emily Kilcrease and Adam Tong – Center for a New American Security) To gauge the health of the U.S.-China economic relationship, one can turn to the words of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who remarked in March 2024 that U.S. “tactics to suppress China . . . [were] reaching a bewildering level of unfathomable absurdity.” Rhetorical flourishes may be the one bright spot in the relationship. As tensions rise over economic restrictions and policies on both sides, economic relations have become a worrisome source of instability in the overall geopolitical relationship. The economic relationship has become increasingly dominated by security concerns, and integration is seen as not an opportunity but a risk to U.S. interests and values. The United States must develop a strong, pragmatic strategy for advancing its economic and security interests within the U.S.-China economic relationship, accounting for the fact that the security competition is now playing out across the economic landscape.
Disorderly Conduct | Center for a New American Security (en-US) (cnas.org)
