LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Azerbaijan
(Callum Fraser – RUSI) Azerbaijan’s success in Karabakh has sealed President Ilham Aliyev’s legacy, finally drawing him out of his father’s shadow. Yet, amid the celebration of reunification, the population is beginning to refocus on domestic issues, namely the repression of political opposition and media freedoms by the state. Azerbaijan’s rapid rise in geopolitical influence places it in a dominant negotiating position over Armenia. However, months after they began, peace talks are still meandering in the preliminary stages. Ultimately, peace does not suit Aliyev, and the West should be cautious about repeating the same mistakes that it made with Ukraine.
The West’s Azerbaijan Question: Pragmatism over Values? | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Central Asia
(Mamie Powers – The Jamestown Foundation) The issue of domestic violence in Central Asia has increasingly gained attention since a former Kazakh economic minister tortured and killed his wife and was convicted of murder, inspiring reform movements throughout Kazakhstan. Corruption plays a significant role in the condoning of domestic violence in Kazakhstan, with government officials and the authorities failing to provide reliable protection for victims, leading to distrust in the government. The societal acceptance of domestic violence in Central Asia correlates to the normalization of violence in society, which can lead to further unrest, increased militarization, and violent repression.
Kazakh Official’s Conviction Offers Hope for Combating Domestic Violence in Central Asia – Jamestown
China
(Mark A. Green – Wilson Center) In 2023, China was both the largest producer and importer of coal, and the largest importer of oil. It’s also the largest importer of lithium, and controls 60% of the world’s lithium mining capacity.
The Power of China | Wilson Center
China – Russia
(Joseph Webster – Atlantic Council) China’s trade with Russia has risen substantially since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, significantly bolstering Moscow’s war aims. While there is no publicly available evidence that Beijing is providing lethal arms to Russian forces, its goods exports are nonetheless likely facilitating Moscow’s invasion. Importantly, trade between China and Russia does not only occur bilaterally. The two countries are also trading via Central Asian countries, which bridge the two authoritarian powers rather than divide them. With the US widening sanctions on Russia, policymakers should pay close attention to potential China-to-Russia trade diversion via Central Asia and other locations.
Indirect China-Russia trade is bolstering Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine – Atlantic Council
Europe
(Cecilia Malmström – Peterson Institute for International Economics) The less-than-expected victory by far-right parties in the European parliamentary elections produced a collective sigh of relief all over the continent. But their share of votes rose in 21 countries, making them the biggest party in Austria, France, and Italy and the second biggest in Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands. Even if their influence will still be limited, the result was enough to make Vladimir Putin smile.
Europe faces political uncertainty but urgent priorities | PIIE
Europe – China
(Jacob Funk Kirkegaard – Peterson Institute for International Economics) The European Commission’s decision to impose new provisional tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs) imported from China came after nine months of investigation into China’s practice of subsidizing EV exports. Three Chinese producers were hit with three different anti-subsidy duties; BYD was hit with 17.1 percent; Geely, 20 percent; and SAIC, 38.1 percent. But the tariffs should be seen as the beginning of a process, not the end. A careful look at the European Union’s actions indicates its lack of desire to escalate trade tensions for political reasons and perhaps even willingness to find a negotiated settlement with China.
The EU chooses engagement, not confrontation, in its EV dispute with China | PIIE
Europe – Russia
(Samantha Gross, Constanze Stelzenmüller – Brookings) Providing a stable energy supply is often described in terms of a “trilemma”—a balance between supply security, environmental sustainability, and affordability. Of the three pillars of energy supply, security is the easiest to take for granted. Supply seems fine until it isn’t. Security of fossil fuel supply is particularly easy to ignore in countries that are striving to greatly reduce their fossil fuel consumption for climate reasons. The political focus is on building renewable energy and zero-carbon systems, and mitigating the economic, social, and political costs of transition; the thought was that the existing system would take care of itself until it was phased out. This was the case for much of Europe until two years ago.
Europe’s messy Russian gas divorce | Brookings
Global Governance
(Richard Ponzio, Nudhara Yusuf, Joris Larik – Stimson Center) Since its introduction by Mahbub ul Haq in Human Development Report 1993, the powerful notion of human security has evolved, incorporating principles of justice while elevating nature and technology’s roles in safeguarding and enriching human life. Still, its original insight from over three decades ago holds true: secure nations require a sense of security, well-being, and belonging among their citizens too. But with only fifteen percent of the Sustainable Development Goals on track to be met by 2030, and as hundreds of millions face extreme poverty worldwide, human security seems out of reach for too many people. Against this challenging backdrop, global economic governance needs outside-the-box ideas supporting broad-based, greener development. The report, focusing on UN system-G20 economic coordination, financing for development, global monetary and fiscal policy, and “new frontiers” in governing global trade (including artificial intelligence, sustainability, and futures thinking), considers proactive global institutional, legal, policy, normative, and operational innovations to inform the agenda and help raise the ambitions of the Summit of the Future. Central to a strategy for achieving human security for all, GGIR’24 underscores the importance of skillful multilateral diplomacy and the recent formation of ImPact Coalitions—assembling expertise across civil society in partnership with champion governments—in the adoption of several far-reaching, high impact global governance reforms. Success also hinges on a robust, closely monitored follow-up effort to support the goals and commitments reached at the summit.
Global Governance Innovation Report 2024 • Stimson Center
India
(Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Sofiya Azad – IISS) On 9 June, Narendra Modi was sworn in as India’s prime minister for a third consecutive term, unprecedented in 62 years. A day later, the government’s top four ministers – for defence, home affairs, finance, and external affairs – and the powerful national-security advisor were reappointed to their posts, signalling stability and continuity from the previous government. Modi’s party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), holds 240 seats, a plurality in the lower house of parliament (Lok Sabha). The BJP is in power in 13 of India’s 29 provinces which possess legislative assemblies, with its allies ruling in an additional six provinces.
The Modi 3.0 coalition government: challenges and priorities (iiss.org)
International Migration
(Emily Hardy – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) This year is critical for democracy, with roughly half of the world’s population living in countries holding elections. These contests are being held at a time when international migration is at a record high and has emerged as a central topic in electoral campaigns.
The Role of Migration in a Year of Crucial Elections – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Italy
(Dario Cristiani – GMF) Italy’s right-wing government was among the winners of the European Parliament (EP) election, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party, Brothers of Italy, finishing first in the country. This signal of support for the incumbent is part of a trend in some EU member states where right-wing parties made significant strides.
In Italy, a Boost for the Incumbent | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
NATO
(Wilson Center) NATO celebrated its 75th anniversary in April and is preparing for its summit in July in Washington. Join us for an exclusive conversation with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as he outlines the goals and priorities of the Alliance heading into the summit, how the Alliance can best support Ukraine, and looking ahead to the future of the Alliance beyond this landmark anniversary.
(Callum Fraser – IISS) As NATO prepares to mark its 75th anniversary against the dark backdrop of the Ukraine conflict, it has just completed its largest and perhaps most significant post-Cold War exercise, Steadfast Defender. On the other side of the world, where strategic clouds are gathering, Australia and the United States are laying plans for the largest and most important edition yet of their main biennial joint training exercise, Talisman Sabre. This will likely also involve the most significant contributions yet by other partner nations, including from Europe.
NATO and friends: a tale of two exercises (iiss.org)
Poland
(Anna Wójcik – GMF) Poland’s new government since December 2023 has made progress in restoring the rule of law—but the process is slow.
Russia
(Nikolai Petrov – Chatham House) Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Alexei Dyumin as Secretary of the State Council on 29 May, replacing Igor Levitin, a respected and influential (if not high-profile) figure who held the post since September 2012. (Levitin has since been appointed advisor to the president – a much less powerful and prestigious position).
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The hostage taking in a Rostov detention center on June 16 has highlighted growing problems in the Russian penal system, including overcrowding, a shortage of guards, and a shift in the balance of power between ordinary criminals and political prisoners. The Rostov action is part of a larger trend that likely means more and larger uprisings are ahead, as Putin weakens and especially when he leaves the scene. If such revolts become widespread, they will spark demands in society and among elites not only for radical changes in prisons but in the political system as well, much as the Gulag revolts did in the months following Stalin’s death.
Rostov Prison Clash Highlights Growing Threat to Putin Regime – Jamestown
Slovakia
(Sona Muzikarova – ASPI The Strategist) Just as Slovakia entered a moratorium on public speeches and campaigning ahead of this month’s European Parliament elections, Prime Minister Robert Fico delivered his first public remarks since he was seriously injured in an assassination attempt in May.
Slovakia’s anti-democratic government is doubling down | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Southeast Asia
(Mohd. Yunus – Lowy The Interpreter) Southeast Asia contains about 40 per cent of the world’s tropical peatlands. These wetland ecosystems, comprised of centuries-old, partially decomposed organic matter, play a crucial role in regulating the Earth’s climate by storing vast amounts of carbon. However, their vulnerability to environmental changes poses a serious threat.
The carbon sinks of Southeast Asia are in trouble | Lowy Institute
Southeast Asia – China
(Lee Sue-Ann – ISEAS) Much has been made of the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s 2024 State of Southeast Asia Survey (SSEA) findings that if forced to choose, a very slim majority of the Southeast Asian respondents would prefer that ASEAN aligns with China rather than the US. This signifies a reversal of previous years’ trends which saw strengthening regional support for aligning with the US. But multi-year data trends from the annual survey suggest that the reason is that China is not so much loved more than the US, but that it is feared more. Data show that while China continues to be perceived as the pre-eminent regional economic, political and strategic power, there is anxiety about how China will exercise this power. Preferences for China’s leadership in various aspects such as upholding free trade and championing an international rules-based order remain consistently low. Trust levels that China would “do the right thing” in contributing to global peace, security, prosperity and governance are also dismally low. Taken together, these indicators suggest that the region’s preference for aligning with China is more about an erosion in confidence in US leadership and a concomitant desire to ‘keep the peace’ with China. But the message from the region to China is clear. There is an overwhelming desire to see China match words with deeds by resolving maritime territorial disputes peacefully and in accordance with international law and respecting smaller states’ national sovereignty and agency. As China finds itself navigating an increasingly fraught external environment amidst intensifying rivalry with the US and Europe, it is in Beijing’s strategic interests to seize the opportunity to substantively improve the credibility of its global and regional leadership by matching words with actions.
Southeast Asia – South Asia
(Jayant Menon – FULCRUM) Regional institutions can potentially foster closer economic integration between Southeast Asia and South Asia, but the existing ones need to cooperate more closely and more strategically.
Regional Institutions Should Step Up to Integrate South Asia with Southeast Asia | FULCRUM
South Korea – G7
(Darcie Draudt-Véjares – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Seoul could act as a crucial link for the current cast of characters, particularly as it seeks to integrate emerging markets.
South Korea Should Be the Next G7 Member – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ukraine
(Zuzanna Gwadera, Timothy Wright – IISS) Ukraine’s acquisition of a longer-range ATACMS ballistic missile provides it with additional options to strike Russian-occupied territory. However, Washington’s restrictions on using US weaponry against targets inside Russia mean that policy changes by Ukraine’s other Western backers will have limited impact.
Missile transfers to Ukraine and wider NATO targeting dilemmas (iiss.org)
(Jade McGlynn – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The following report, based on extensive fieldwork conducted by the author in Ukraine (largely in the de-occupied territories) since 2022, provides insights into the importance of the Ukrainian resistance to the Russian occupation, its impact on the sustainability of Russia’s war, the reality of conducting resistance, and the personal stories of some of those involved. This report also provides recommendations and insights into how the resistance can support the Ukrainian war effort, as well as ways for the West to aid the resistance—from boosting morale to providing material assistance. As the involvement of civilian efforts across the West to support Ukraine has been considerable, a number of recommendations are also aimed more generally at interested organizations and individuals who would like to support, morally or otherwise, the Ukrainian resistance against the Russian occupation.
Crossing Thresholds: Ukrainian Resistance to Russian Occupation (csis.org)
(Kateryna Odarchenko, Elena Davlikanova – The Jamestown Foundation) The Summit on Peace in Ukraine, held in Switzerland on June 15 and 16, demonstrated a unified position held by many states worldwide in respecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity and upholding international law. Russian propaganda had tried to raise concerns that the absence of China, whose support has helped Moscow sustain the war effort, would limit the summit’s effectiveness. Hope is growing that Kyiv will be able to build on the successes of the summit in bolstering international support for its cause and exerting pressure on the Kremlin to secure the release of political prisoners and prisoners of war.
Ukraine Scores Diplomatic Victory at Peace Summit – Jamestown
(Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff – GMF) For the Ukraine Recovery Conference to have a lasting effect, continuity, follow-through and honest accounting are needed.
(Jeffrey J. Schott – Peterson Institute for International Economics) The long-awaited agreement by the G7 democracies to use earnings from the $300 billion in frozen Russian Central Bank reserves to channel aid to Ukraine was a welcome development. Signed on June 13 at the 2024 G7 Summit in southern Italy by President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. and the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the European Commission, the agreement provided an important historical coda to the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landing in Normandy the week before.
Ukraine needs a durable commitment of support from the G7 | PIIE
USA – China
(Sujai Shivakumar, Charles Wessner, Thomas Howell – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The United States is facing a challenge to its global leadership in science and technology that is more serious than any it has confronted since gaining that position after World War II. Within the relatively short span of two decades, China has emerged as a formidable rival, mounting a concerted drive to dominate key technology-intensive sectors and increasingly matching or exceeding the United States in resources committed.
Investing in Science and Technology (csis.org)
Vietnam
(TNguyen Khac Giang – FULCRUM) The recent political upheaval in Vietnam has dramatically reshaped its elite leadership. Recent attention has been focused on two high-profile replacements — General To Lam’s promotion to state president and Tran Thanh Man’s elevation to become the chair of the National Assembly. This is warranted, given that Vietnam’s collective leadership centres on the so-called “Four Pillars” – the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), the president, the prime minister and the chair of the National Assembly.
New Faces of Vietnamese Politics: Better Red than Expert? | FULCRUM
Vietnam – Russia
(Hoang Thi Ha – FULCRUM) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 19-20 June state visit to Vietnam, at the invitation of Vietnamese Communist Party General-Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, is intriguing for many watchers of Vietnam’s foreign policy. What does Hanoi stand to gain from welcoming Putin – who is now under an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes against Ukraine?
Putin’s Visit to Vietnam: When the Past Weighs on the Present | FULCRUM
