LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
(Mannat Jaspal – Observer Research Foundation) Carbon trading have long been touted as a silver bullet to channelise climate finance to African countries lacking the capital to support climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. The erstwhile ‘Kyoto Protocol’ and its successor ‘The Paris Agreement’, though much more comprehensive and wider in scope, both recognize the importance of carbon trading (a form of carbon pricing) in combatting climate change, and in the Paris Agreement the same is enshrined under Article 6 and its sub-components (more on this later).
Potential or Peril: Carbon Trading in Africa (orfonline.org)
Argentina
(Christopher Sabatini – Chatham House) Reforming Argentina’s infamously dysfunctional, crisis-prone economy was never going to be easy for President Javier Milei. But on 12 June, the country’s Senate approved a slimmed-down omnibus bill that when eventually signed into law will give Milei broad executive powers and open up Argentina’s closed economy.
Asia
(Seth Hays, Morgan Hughes – East Asia Forum) As a result of new regulations such as the EU Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive and the 2024 United States Government’s National Action Plan on Responsible Business Conduct, businesses in the Asia Pacific will need to increase their adherence to environmental and human rights standards. Business associations have a crucial role in bridging this gap as companies navigate these rules, promote the interests of their members and advocate for human rights.
Bridging the business and human rights gap in Asia | East Asia Forum
Central and Eastern Europe
(Michal Hrubý – GMF) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is increasingly important in the EU’s manufacturing landscape. The region’s export-oriented economies became an integral part of it through foreign direct investment—supported primarily by EU funding, including Cohesion Policy programs for regional and industrial development, and by national state spending. With its competitiveness at stake, the EU now focuses on industrial policy for cutting-edge technologies with high capital intensity. Many of its new regulations loosen state aid rules to allow generous support by governments to attract investors, which poses a problem for member states with less fiscal room to do so, including the CEE countries.
China
(Peter Leavy – Lowy The Interpreter) While laws should provide clarity and transparency, China’s recent orders regarding maritime jurisdiction appear to be deliberately based on ambiguity and uncertainty. This has become very evident in the past day after the latest clash with the Philippines in the South China Sea.
Overcoming the deliberate legal ambiguity adopted by China’s coast guard | Lowy Institute
(Noel Therattil – Observer Research Foundation) China is often viewed through the lenses of commerce, geopolitics, and political economy. At the fringes of these lies Chinese agriculture—and its domestic and global impact. This brief analyses the evolution of Chinese agriculture, from the revolutionary Maoist period to the present. It describes the Chinese government’s strategy to ensure food self-sufficiency for an increasingly voracious consumer base. In particular, it examines the production of two Chinese staples—soy and pork—to understand future trends in the country’s agricultural economy and its impact on international markets. It finds that in China, policymaking in agriculture, like in most other domains, is synonymous with experimentation. While not all experiments succeed, they provide valuable lessons.
The Role of Agriculture in Modern China (orfonline.org)
China – Taiwan
(James Wu, Dennis LC Weng – East Asia Forum) Taiwan’s newly elected president, Lai Ching-te, faces a challenging relationship with the opposition-led Legislative Yuan. The disputes have centred on a proposal for stronger legislative oversight of the Executive Yuan. The proposed reforms have been accused of pushing Taiwan towards authoritarianism, but may in fact help to increase accountability and strengthen Taiwan’s democracy. It is crucial for President Lai to carefully manage the relationship between the executive and legislative branches and promote unity rather than division in order to preserve Taiwan’s democracy and international standing.
Taiwan’s new president Lai must unify a divided population | East Asia Forum
(Asha Clark – East Asia Forum) China concluded joint military exercises around Taiwan in May 2024, signalling its capabilities and renewing global concerns over potential conflict. The longstanding ambiguity in the United States’ defence relationship with Taiwan has cultivated doubts about US commitment to aid Taiwan in a conflict. The United States should clarify its policy towards Taiwan, which could reignite credible deterrence against more serious provocations from China.
The case for strategic unambiguity on Taiwan | East Asia Forum
(Huỳnh Tâm Sáng, Tong Thai Thien, Le Thi Yen Nhi – Lowy The Interpreter) In Taiwan, China’s state media and other outlets are increasingly using disinformation alongside more traditional methods to subvert rivals by sowing dissent and influencing politics and public opinion.
How Taiwan fights the disinformation war | Lowy Institute
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Farah Hegazi – SIPRI) Cities will play a key role in humanity’s future. More than half of the world’s population (57 per cent) lived in urban areas in 2022 and the share is projected to reach almost 70 per cent by 2050. Cities already feature in the climate change debate for their carbon footprints and, in many cases, leadership and innovation in the green transition. But they are also uniquely vulnerable to climate change.
Climate change and urban violence: A critical knowledge gap | SIPRI
(Sarah Carter – World Resources Institute) Europe’s forests face increasing pressures. Impacts include fewer tall forests, climate change-induced wildfires, insect outbreaks, and, most recently, increased wood harvesting to meet additional demand for “home-grown” biomass in response to the Ukraine war and changing energy demands.
What’s Driving Europe’s Forest Loss? | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
(Muqsit Ashraf, Roberto Bocca – World Economic Forum) The energy transition is progressing, but the rate of improvement is slowing in the face of increasing global uncertainty. Achieving balanced progress – improvements on the three primary dimensions of sustainability, equity and security – seems more complex than ever; 21 out of 120 countries managed to do this in the last year. A new report by the World Economic Forum, Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2024, suggests that regaining transition momentum requires a combination of regulatory reforms, adoption of AI, efforts to deliver energy equity, better-connected energy supply and demand and enhanced collaboration between countries.
The 5 actions needed to boost the energy transition momentum | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Diplomacy – Women
(Marta Kozielska, Karen Smith – LSE IDEAS) Women’s representation in international diplomacy is alarmingly low. Though it varies across countries and regions, women’s underrepresentation in international diplomacy is pervasive. Despite a few women holding senior leadership positions in prominent institutions such as the World Trade Organization, European Commission, International Monetary Fund, and European Central Bank, women’s representation within international organisations is unequal and only twenty percent of ambassadors worldwide are women. At the same time, research increasingly shows that diversity enhances decision-making capabilities, better addresses the needs of a diverse population, and embodies a commitment to the democratic principles of inclusion and tolerance.
Strengthening the Representation of Women in Diplomacy: Challenges and Policy Solutions (lse.ac.uk)
European Union
(Judy Dempsey – Carnegie Europe) France, Germany, and Poland have concrete ideas for making EU foreign policy more coherent and effective. The union’s incoming leadership should use these proposals to strengthen the bloc.
The Timely Revival of the Weimar Triangle – Carnegie Europe (carnegieendowment.org)
(Jacob Kirkegaard – GMF) The new European Parliament (EP) will see an estimated, and limited, 16-seat gain for parties to the right of the center, with the two main far-right political families, European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID), getting 13 of those seats in a legislature with 720. The centrist majority of the European People’s Party (EPP), Socialists & Democrats (S&D), and liberal Renew Europe looks set to retain its standing with about 400 seats (see Table 1). It, therefore, will continue to hold the balance of power, despite voters’ suffering from the worst cost of living crisis in a generation. The result means no major shift in some key policy areas. European environmental and carbon pricing policies will stay in place, recently enacted reform of EU procedures for processing asylum seekers will remain unchanged, and the bloc’s strong support for Ukraine will continue.
The EU Votes for Continuity | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Germany
(Jannik Hartmann – German Council on Foreign Relations) Germany is NATO’s linchpin for moving military assets to its eastern flank. Yet the decay of the country’s infrastructure, its prohibitive bureaucracy, capacity constraints, and vulnerability to physical and cyber threats cripple military mobility. This undermines Germany’s ability to fulfill its obligations under NATO’s New Force Model at a time when Russia represents an increasingly acute threat and Berlin is about to deploy a full brigade to Lithuania.
G7
(Dhiroj Prasad Koirala, Tetsushi Sonobe, Dil Rahut, Nicolas Buchoud – Asian Development Bank Institute) The leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) countries just concluded their 50th summit on 15 June in Apulia in southern Italy. At the meeting, the leaders made a series of commitments that will influence the present and future agendas of global development. These commitments span various fields, including climate change, health, AI, emerging technologies, agriculture, food, and nutrition, among others. Tracking these commitments and how they guide international affairs is crucial.
G7 – Global South
(Harsh V. Pant, Angad Singh Brar – Observer Research Foundation) The grand convergence at the Apulia G7 Summit in Italy between the western democracies and the Global South was facilitated by the G7’s sensitivity to the systemic risks it faces from the Russia-China dyad. Once seen as the sole shepherd to the global economy, the G7 nations along with the EU gathered under the Italian Presidency for the group’s 50th Summit with an agenda to deepen inter-group coordination against Russia as well as enhance their collective outreach to Africa, where China is seen as a dominant investor through its Belt and Road Initiative. Guided by the G7’s own stratagem, the Summit’s outreach session saw an invitee list dominated by the Global South with leadership presence from Brazil, Argentina, the UAE, Turkey, Jordan, Algeria, Kenya, Tunisia, Mauritania and India.
China in horizon, G7 eyes the Global South (orfonline.org)
India
(Ajay Bisaria – Observer Research Foundation) After a bruising election campaign fought and won mainly on domestic issues, Prime Minister Modi treaded a turbulent outside world in the first week of his new tenure. Modi’s tryst in Italy with G7 bigwigs was not just an opportunity to hand out the new calling card of Modi 3.0. It was also occasion to discuss global conflicts that are upending the world order. Modi wisely gave a miss to the Swiss-Ukrainian peace conference in the Alps that followed soon after, even though an official Indian delegation registered its presence. Expectedly, the summit’s efforts did not go too far with Russia off the table. But it would be good for India to study these peace moves carefully.
Time for Pax Indica? (orfonline.org)
Indonesia – Australia
(Max Walden – Lowy The Interpreter) The world’s largest single-day elections, held in February 2024, granted Prabowo Subianto his long-held dream of becoming Indonesian president. Having served as Indonesian defence minister since 2019 under one-time opponent Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, and as the son-in-law of late dictator Suharto, Prabowo is no stranger to elite politics. His father served as a minister under Indonesia’s first president Sukarno as well as Suharto.
A Prabowo presidency will be good for Australian interests | Lowy Institute
Malaysia
(Han Jun Lim – East Asia Forum) TikTok’s role in Malaysian politics is complex. While it played a part in the Malaysian Islamic Party’s surprising victory in the 2022 general election, its might be less impactful than initially thought. While Malaysian politicians will continue using TikTok, its ability to sway young voters depends on reaching beyond algorithmic echo chambers.
Turning TikTok views into Malaysian votes | East Asia Forum
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Isabelle Werenfels – SWP) For decades, Maghrebi decision-makers have instrumentalised friend and foe narratives with regard to Israel and Iran, two of the most controversial regional actors in the MENA region. Only Morocco has official relations with Israel, only Algeria and Tunisia with Iran. A systematic analysis of news agency reports and social media shows that political elites in the Maghreb exploit public sentiment on Israel and Iran for their own domestic and foreign policy ends: distracting from socio-economic challenges, restricting freedom of expression, strengthening the security apparatus, demonising neighbours, and nation-branding. The escalation of violence in the Middle East since 7 October 2023 has amplified existing trends in the three Maghreb states concerning Israel and to a lesser extent Iran, and revealed almost unanimous public rejection of Israel and, to a lesser degree, growing sympathies for Iran. The official responses vary: Rabat is sticking to its normalisation with Israel and rejection of Iran. Algiers is seeking to position itself as a voice for global justice in the international arena, while the Tunisian president styles himself as one of the Arab World’s most steadfast proponents of the “liberation” of Palestine. Decision-makers in Europe need to develop an understanding of the frustrations in the Maghreb over Western double standards, and of the fundamentally different perspectives on Israel/Palestine. Otherwise they risk losing all their (civil society) partners in the region. At the same time, European policy-makers should be attentive when Maghrebi governments restrict freedom of expression and religious pluralism under the pretext of opposing Israel or Iran and – in the case of Algeria and Morocco – resort to potentially destabilising propaganda and sabre-rattling.
Myanmar
(Sreeparna Banerjee – Observer Research Foundation) In recent months, the ethnic armed groups have won most of their battles against the sophisticated and heavily armed Junta government in Myanmar, showcasing their strategic and tactical prowess in modern warfare. As the fighting intensifies, their use of commercial weaponised drones emerges as a critical game changer in the war against the Junta.
Drone warfare in Myanmar: Strategic implications (orfonline.org)
NATO – Indo Pacific – Japan – South Korea
(Abhishek Sharma – Observer Research Foundation) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made NATO hyper-aware of the grave risks such events present to the stability of the international rules-based order. Furthermore, it is now looking into Chinese actions that go against the rules-based order in the West Philippine Sea and Taiwan Strait. These regional events have prompted NATO to elevate its strategic partnerships with its Indo-Pacific four (or IP4)—Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand—to address these issues. However, in its pivot to the Indo-Pacific, NATO preferably sees developing strategic ties with its Northeast Asian partners, Japan and South Korea, as the first important step in its long-term plans for the region.
NATO’s pivot to Indo-Pacific: Focus on Japan and South Korea (orfonline.org)
Nepal – China
(Hari Bansh Jha – Observer Research Foundation) China, which has been nurturing unity among the left political parties in Nepal, seems highly satisfied with Nepal’s new political dispensation. In 2018, it not only played a crucial role in uniting the CPN-UML led by KP Sharma Oli and Maoist Centre leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, but it also facilitated the merger between the two parties, which was renamed the Nepal Communist Party (NCP). However, the unity between the two parties could not last long because just within three years the two erstwhile parties, i.e. the CPN-UML and the Maoist Centre were separated due to the intervention made by Nepal’s Supreme Court. On 4 March this year, Beijing again successfully brought the CPN-UML and the Maoist Centre together and enabled them to form a new coalition government. In this effort, the Maoist Centre had to sever its 15-month-long alliance with the Nepali Congress, the single largest party in Nepal, and form a new government with the CPN-UML that had withdrawn its support to Dahal in February 2023.
Sweeping changes in Nepal-China relations (orfonline.org)
Poland
(Adam Hsakou – GMF) The murder of a soldier by a migrant on Poland’s eastern border has shaken Polish public opinion. While the Tusk government finds itself under political pressure, Warsaw is reinvesting in its border defense and hopes to bring up the issue of “weaponized migration” at the NATO summit in July.
A Soldier’s Death Rattles Warsaw | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Russia – North Korea
(Sue Mi Terry, Stephen Sestanovich – Council on Foreign Relations) The new defense treaty demonstrates a growing closeness between the two pariah states that is likely to make the rest of the world uneasy.
Sahel
(Andrew Lebovich – Clingendael) The ongoing American military exit from Niger has focused international attention not just on the Sahel, but on the swirling and increasingly complex geopolitics in the region. The arrival of a group of Russian military advisors at Airbase 101 in Niger’s capital Niamey – the same base that housed American, French and other military forces– brought the region’s awkward geopolitical context into even finer focus.
The Sahel’s new geopolitics | Clingendael
Solomon Islands
(Kerryn Baker – East Asia Forum) Despite eight women being elected in the Solomon Islands’ 2024 general elections, their political representation remains low. While legislation requires parties to include 10 per cent female candidates, there are loopholes that limit its impact with only four of the 13 contesting parties meeting the threshold. There is ongoing discussion of temporary special measures or reserved seats for women in provincial assemblies to alleviate this representation gap.
Female politicians struggle to get off the blocks in the Solomon Islands | East Asia Forum
Somalia
(Michael Jones, Stig Jarle Hansen, Christopher Hockey, Mohamed Gaas – RUSI) With timelines for the elimination of the al-Shabaab insurgency repeatedly pushed back, Somalia’s government risks losing any progress it has made in the absence of a wider political settlement.
Crunch Time in Somalia | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
