LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Artificial Intelligence
1 – (Matthew da Mota – CIGI) The rise of chatbots capable of writing college essays has raised fears for higher education in the humanities. But there is another way to look at this phenomenon: as an opportunity to refocus on activities that remain entirely human: critical and abstract thinking
2 – (Paul Samson, Constance de Leusse, Paul Fehlinger, Aaron Shull) In 2024, the spread of emerging technologies will continue to accelerate across the planet. Leaders from the public, private and nonprofit sectors must act quickly and decisively at both the national and international levels to frame and guide policy and regulatory directions. Collective action – or inaction – will have critical impacts on future generations if we do not carefully align the current wave of technologies with human values and interests
3 – (Chanpreet Khurana – Money Control – january 7, 2024) IBM Research AI Vice President Sriram Raghavan on using AI for climate solutions and weather forecasts, the AI Alliance, sustainable AI and developing AI talent
Cybersecurity
1 – (Ionut Arghire – Security Week) A state-supported cyberespionage group likely affiliated to Turkey has been observed targeting numerous public and private entities in the Netherlands for intelligence gathering, Dutch incident response provider Hunt & Hackett report
Turkish Cyberspies Targeting Netherlands – SecurityWeek
2 – (The Hacker News) Threat actors operating under the name Anonymous Arabic have released a remote access trojan (RAT) called Silver RAT that’s equipped to bypass security software and stealthily launch hidden applications. “The developers operate on multiple hacker forums and social media platforms, showcasing an active and sophisticated presence,” cybersecurity firm Cyfirma said in a report published last week. The actors, assessed to be of Syrian origin and linked to the development of another RAT known as S500 RAT, also run a Telegram channel offering various services such as the distribution of cracked RATs, leaked databases, carding activities, and the sale of Facebook and X bots
Syrian Hackers Distributing Stealthy C#-Based Silver RAT to Cybercriminals (thehackernews.com)
3 – (The Hacker News) The U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) said it charged 19 individuals worldwide in connection with the now-defunct xDedic Marketplace, which is estimated to have facilitated more than $68 million in fraud. In wrapping up its investigation into the dark web portal, the agency said the transnational operation was the result of close cooperation with law enforcement authorities from Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Ukraine, and Europol
DoJ Charges 19 Worldwide in $68 Million xDedic Dark Web Marketplace Fraud (thehackernews.com)
4 – (Daniel Pereira – OODA) Since its inception in early 2022, the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS), Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB) has generated some interesting outputs, specifically: reports on the Lapsus Hacking Group and the ongoing challenges created by the Log4j Vulnerability
OODA Loop – The DHS Cyber Safety Review Board’s Inaugural Reports
Digital Perspectives
1 – (Marie Lamensch – CIGI) International human rights law and initiatives can serve as a normative framework to address digital authoritarianism. Democratic governments, independent researchers and subject matter experts, as well as civil society groups, should collaborate to address digital authoritarianism, including by working within multilateral bodies and emerging global technology initiatives
2 – (Yasmin Afina, Marjorie Buchser, Alex Krasodomski, Jacqueline Rowe, Nikki Sun, Rowan Wilkinson – Chatham House) After decades of reluctance, governments around the world are moving to regulate digital platforms in an effort to address perceived harms and to strengthen state supervision and control. Digital sovereignty is emerging as a key goal of government policy, but the agenda is complicated by national security considerations, the influence of technology companies and domestic politics
Europe
(Martin Ehl – European Council on Foreign Relations) A tension is emerging within the European Union: the new member states, especially those from Central Europe, are theoretically aligned with Western Europe and the United States. Those countries are pursuing an “à la carte” approach, choosing partners and values depending on the moment. This could pave the way for a Central Europe that is less aligned with the EU and have serious consequences for the future of the Union
Walking the tightrope: Orban, Fico, and the future of central European diplomacy | ECFR
Germany – Saudi Arabia
(Sebastian Sprenger, Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo – Defense News) The German government is no longer concerned about the proposed sale of 48 Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft to Saudi Arabia, following the kingdom’s help in intercepting Houthi-launched missiles aimed at Israel, German media reported
German leaders abandon blockade of Eurofighter sale to Saudi Arabia (defensenews.com)
India
(Arun Swamy – East Asia Forum) The Author describes the complexity of New Delhi’s diplomatic approach in 2023
India’s triumphs, turmoil and diplomatic tightropes in 2023 | East Asia Forum
India – Myanmar
(Harsh V. Pant, Sreeparna Banerjee – Observer Research Foundation) The Free Movement Regime (FMR) between India and Myanmar, initiated in 1970, experienced a revival in 2016, finding a place within New Delhi’s broader Act East Policy. This regime allows people residing within a 16km radius of the border to cross freely. Recent developments have cast a shadow over this agreement, forcing the Indian government to engage with Myanmar authorities to consider an end to this unrestricted border movement
Iran
(Jason Brodsky- Atlantic Council) The January 3 terrorist attack in Iran, claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), was the bloodiest since the 1979 Islamic revolution
Japan
(Purnendra Jain – Observer Research Foundation) Japan is no longer a spectator in the field of international security and defense. Tokyo is now actively promoting and establishing defense cooperation with several countries and has launched a new program providing security aid to developing countries. On November 3, 2023, during Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit to Manila, Japan signed an agreement with the Philippines, pledging 600 million yen in Official Security Assistance (OSA) aid. Two weeks later, Japan signed a similar agreement with Bangladesh, pledging 575 million yen. On December 16, 2023, an agreement was signed committing 400 million yen to Malaysia under the OAS. Japan signed the fourth and final agreement for the current fiscal year with Fiji two days later, pledging 400 million yen
Japan’s new security assistance to the Indo-Pacific region (orfonline.org)
Koreas
(Pratnashree Basu – Observer Research Foundation) On January 5, 2024, North Korea fired 200 artillery rounds near the disputed western maritime border with South Korea, in violation of the 2018 military agreement between Pyongyang and Seoul. In an already tense situation due to the constant updating of Pyongyang’s missile program, Friday’s launch could lead to a further escalation of military tensions on the Korean Peninsula
North Korea’s artillery fire and regional implications (orfonline.org)
Mekong
(Nguyen Khac Giang – East Asia Forum) Despite the results of Thailand’s May 2023 general election, the outlook for politics in the Mekong region remains bleak. Even from an economic point of view, the Mekong countries have struggled to recover pre-pandemic growth. The region continues to be a battleground in the struggle for geopolitical influence between the United States and China
Near East
1 – (Alessandro Mascellino – Infosecurity Magazine) On Sunday 8 January Beirut international airport suffered a cyber attack, orchestrated by national anti-Hezbollah groups. The attack takes place in a context of growing tension between Hezbollah and the Israeli army
2 – (Colin Demarest – Defense News) Houthi rebels rely on foreign arsenals for their missiles and drones in the air and on water. Experts say the militant group based in Yemen, where the bombings on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden originated, is using Iranian technology and its derivatives. Tehran has long supported a constellation of fighters to achieve its objectives, with assets recently recovered in both Ukraine, after Russian use, and Iraq
How Iranian tech empowers Houthi drone, missile attacks in the Red Sea (defensenews.com)
3 – (Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen – BESA Center) On the morning of October 7, 2023, Israel’s strategic security concept was obliterated, marking the end of 30 years since the Oslo Accords. For Israel to achieve victory in the war against Hamas, it will need to adapt its concept of security to reflect a new and deeper understanding of its perception of the enemy and the nature of its struggle against the Jewish state
4 – (Col. (res.), Shay Shabtai – BESA Center) Israel’s national security doctrine collapsed on October 7. After the end of the war, a thorough revision of the doctrine will be necessary. Fundamental questions will need to be discussed: Is Israel giving too much weight to the Iranian threat? What is the basis of the national approach to the Palestinian question? What is the right balance between independence and dependence on the United States? Is Israel a country that manages risk or actively shapes its environment? It might be useful to make these discussions part of binding legislation in which, for example, any new government would have to approve its national security strategy in the Knesset
5 – The Data Analytics Desk at the INSS provides accurate and updated data during the Swords of Iron War, covering information on the Israeli internal front, the Gazan and Northern fronts, the West Bank, and the international arena. 14 different data files – scroll down to view them all
Swords of Iron: an Overview | INSS
Nepal
(Hari Bansh Jha – Observer Research Foundation) On November 13, 2023, the Nepal government announced a ban on the Chinese-owned app TikTok because its content was harmful to social harmony. As a result, the Nepal Telecommunications Authority (NTA) has asked all internet service providers in the country to block this app launched in the country in August 2018 by Beijing-based technology company ByteDance. It had emerged as the third most used platform in the country, behind only YouTube and Facebook. When this app was banned, over 2.2 million out of the country’s 30 million population were actively using it
Why TikTok was banned in Nepal? (orfonline.org)
North Korea
(James Coker – Infosecurity Magazine) According to blockchain intelligence firm TRM, North Korean hackers stole at least $600 million in cryptocurrencies in 2023, about a third of the total value of such heists. This figure represents a 30% cut on the cryptocurrency stolen by hackers linked to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in 2022
Russia – India
(Andrey Bystritskiy – Vivekananda International Foundation) One of the most discussed topics in Russia is the current and future state of relations between Moscow and New Delhi and their impact on the global situation. Experts from the Valdai Discussion Club are directly involved in the ongoing discussions
Towards a Common Understanding of the Future | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
Turkey
(Cem Devrim Yaylali – Defense News) Turkish defense and aerospace exports totaled $5.5 billion in 2023, up about 25% from the previous year. As the report of the Assembly of Turkish exporters, published this month, does not distinguish between revenues from new orders and those from contracts signed in previous years, it is unclear how much of the $5.5 billion comes from new contracts signed in 2023
Turkey’s defense, aerospace exports rose by 25% last year (defensenews.com)
Ukraine
(Doug Irving – RAND Corporation) RAND experts analyze how much and how Ukraine will rebuild when the war is over
Postwar Ukraine: Planning for a Successful and Secure Recovery | RAND
Ukraine – Europe
(Mark Leonard – European Council on Foreign Relations) The European Union’s decision to start accession negotiations with Ukraine represents an important symbolic step. With Ukraine struggling to secure crucial aid and its counteroffensive failing to achieve its objectives, it is time to redefine what constitutes a Ukrainian victory and a Russian defeat
Europe Needs a New Ukraine Strategy | ECFR
Ukraine – West
(Tom Keatinge – RUSI) There was a real sense of coordination on the Western Front in the launch of the sanctions on Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine. As the months passed, tensions began to surface. In particular, the EU’s slow pace of introducing new sanctions packages contrasts with the more dynamic approach of the US and UK, which have at times even found it necessary to take unilateral action against targets in the EU itself
Hammer Time: When US Sanctions Patience Ran Out | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
USA – China
1 – (Gracelin Baskaran – CSIS) China announced on December 21, 2023, a ban on rare earth extraction and separation technologies. This has significant implications for US national and economic security. Rare earths, a group of 17 metals, are used in defense technologies, including missiles, lasers, systems mounted on vehicles such as tanks, and military communications. They are also used in computers, televisions and smartphones, along with various clean energy technologies critical to decarbonization
What China’s Ban on Rare Earths Processing Technology Exports Means (csis.org)
2 – (Daniel Araya – CIGI) Huawei’s recent breakthrough in chip production for the Mate 60 Pro smartphone represents a turning point in the technology war between the United States and China. US-led export controls appear to have catalyzed China’s domestic capacity. Shanghai-based Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation began mass production of Huawei’s Kirin 9000S processor in August 2023. The second-generation 7-nanometer process technology uses a custom chip architecture designed by Huawei subsidiary HiSilicon. Just two generations behind Apple’s cutting-edge 3-nanometer chip, Huawei is expected to push ahead with 5-nanometer production within the next two to three years. If nothing changes, Huawei should have a true 5-nanometer chip by 2025 or 2026, with full-scale AI chips not long after
3 – (Vishakha Saxena – Asia Financial) Nvidia is planning to launch its new slower artificial intelligence (AI) chip for China in the second quarter of this year, sources say, but recent reports suggest the US chipmaker may be in for a disappointment. Nvidia’s H20 chip is the most powerful of three chips it created for China so as to meet export restrictions announced by Washington in October. But top Chinese cloud firms have told Nvidia they do not want its slower artificial intelligence chips, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal
Alibaba, Tencent Turn Down Nvidia’s Slower AI Chips: WSJ (asiafinancial.com)
USA – Japan – China
(Sarah Bauerle Danzman – Atlantic Council) In mid-December 2023, US Steel announced that it had agreed to be purchased by Nippon Steel for approximately $14.1 billion. The deal would put the Japanese company in second place in the world steel production ranking, accounting for 4.5% of annual global crude steel production, behind China Baowu Group’s 7%. Six of the ten largest steel producers are Chinese, as are twenty-four of the forty-six global companies that produce at least ten million tons of steel per year
The US Steel deal is a test of friendshoring—and the US is failing – Atlantic Council
Nuovo Umanesimo / New Humanism (Marco Emanuele)
- Pace nell’inter-in-dipendenza / Peace in inter-in-dependence
- La pace nella complessità / Peace in complexity
- Mediazione come essenza della politica / Mediation as the essence of politics (Marco Emanuele)
- Il G7 e la sfida della mediazione / The G7 and the challenge of mediation (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Medio Oriente: la guerra liquida del terrorismo / Middle East: the liquid war of terrorism (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Africa, in grande spolvero il mercato dei droni / Africa, the drone market is booming (Carlo Rebecchi)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
