LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia
(Ian Satchwell – ASPI The Strategist) Northern Australia is heavily dependent on migration to sustain its population and skills and to increase the region’s contribution to national security
Global Perspective
(Robert Walker – Lowy The Interpreter) On January 10, the World Bank released its semi-annual report on the global economic outlook
India – Middle Corridor
(Ayjaz Wani – Observer Research Foundation) Harsher sanctions on Russia by the West following the breakout of the Russia-Ukraine war have prompted countries to reconsider and recalibrate their global supply chains and trade routes. The Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), is one such connectivity route that has acquired importance. TITR spans across Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus. With the primary objective of enhancing connectivity between Asia and Europe, the Middle Corridor provides a much-needed alternative and faster supply route than Russia’s Northern Corridor
The Middle Corridor and opportunities for India (orfonline.org)
India – Taiwan
(Harsh V. Pant, Kalpit A Mankikar – Observer Research Foundation) The victory of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, Lai Ching-te (William Lai), in the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election is remarkable, given that no party has previously secured a third consecutive term in office. This year’s hustings were particularly neck and neck since a relatively new outfit, Taiwan’s People’s Party, had entered the fray and turned the elections into a three-way contest
Taiwan verdict and Delhi-Taipei engagement (orfonline.org)
New Caledonia – France
(Denise Fisher – Lowy The Interpreter) New Caledonia’s political future remains uncertain, two years after a contested independence referendum in December 2021. All independence parties reject the pro-France outcome of the referendum. They want another referendum under international auspices
New Caledonia: France’s threat to impose change unilaterally weakened | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Tatiana Stanovaya – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) The war in Ukraine is starting to dictate its own rules to Putin. The president and his inner circle are being forced to submit to the new wartime reality that they themselves created
Tech Perspectives
1 – (Muhammad Ali Baig, Anum A. Khan – Lowy The Interpreter) This era of AI is becoming known as the “Oppenheimer moment,” where the rapid development of military AI requires concrete regulatory frameworks to prevent potentially destabilizing consequences of new technologies, similar to the challenges faced by nuclear arms control in its early years and dramatized in last year’s film about the life of physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer
AI’s Oppenheimer moment: Establishing regulations | Lowy Institute
2 – (Samir Saran, Flavia Alves, Vera Songwe – Observer Research Foundation) Technology has long shaped the contours of geopolitical relations – parties competed to outinnovate their opponents in order to build more competitive economies, societies and militaries. Today is different. With breakthroughs in frontier technologies manifesting at rapid rates, the question is not who will capture their benefits first but how parties can work together to promote their beneficial use and limit their risks
Technology: Taming – and unleashing – technology together (orfonline.org)
UK
(Jamie MacColl, Pia Hüsch, Gareth Mott, James Sullivan, Jason R. C. Nurse, Sarah Turner, Nandita Pattnaik – RUSI) Ransomware incidents remain a scourge on UK society. Based on interviews with victims and incident responders, a paper outlines the harm ransomware causes to organisations, individuals, the UK economy, national security and wider society
2024
(Mercedes Page – ASPI The Strategist) A list of dates to watch out for during 2024
2024 geopolitical calendar for a world near the brink | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Nuovo Umanesimo per la Pace / New Humanism for Peace (Marco Emanuele)
- Il vincolo, i limiti e il respiro della Storia / The bond, the limits and the breath of History
- Pace nell’inter-in-dipendenza / Peace in inter-in-dependence
- La pace nella complessità / Peace in complexity
- Disuguaglianze in scenari complessi / Inequalities in complex scenarios (Marco Emanuele)
- Le disuguaglianze crescono. Il rapporto di Oxfam (Marzia Giglioli)
- Intelligenza artificiale e guerra. Riflessione sui limiti (Marzia Giglioli)
- Oltre i confini. Per il dialogo. A colloquio con Domitilla Olivieri (Università di Utrecht) / Beyond borders. For dialogue. In conversation with Domitilla Olivieri (Utrecht University) (Marzia Giglioli)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
