BUSSOLA GEOSTRATEGICA-CAMMINO COMPLESSO
GEOSTRATEGIC COMPASS – COMPLEX PATH
BOUSSOLE GÉOSTRATÉGIQUE – PARCOURS COMPLEXE
Viviamo in un tempo fragile. L’Occidente, che ancora si muove credendosi il centro del mondo, ha la faccia triste: chiamato a contenere l’avanzata cinese, parla di derisking (versione più edulcorata del decoupling). C’è un tema oggettivo di paura del mare aperto della globalità, quel mare che, con sprezzo del pericolo e nell’auto-inganno da fine della storia, abbiamo deciso di percorrere qualche decennio fa.
La barca dell’Occidente ha preso atto che non può reggere il mare aperto di cui sopra (per eccesso di tempeste e di traffico) ma, allo stesso tempo, ha chiaro – pur fra divisioni ormai conclamate – che con Pechino bisogna parlare. Nel tempo fragile, ma interconnesso, nessuno può fare a meno degli altri.
L’interconnessione chiede regole di condotta ed è su queste che non abbiamo lavorato nei gloriosi decenni che hanno preceduto la nostra consapevolezza del ritorno delle storie. Per questo scriviamo di “geoApolitica”, analisi e tentativo di governo (chiamato governance …) delle dinamiche planetarie. Tutto è andato linearmente ma, rispetto alle nostre convinzioni ancora novecentesche, è la realtà ad essere andata in direzione ostinata e contraria: lo vediamo oggi, immersi in un cambio di era che mostra l’insostenibilità politico-strategica del mondo e dei mondi.
Tutti siamo sovrani, tutti vorremmo vivere in pace e in sicurezza a casa nostra, salvaguardando le nostre tradizioni e le nostre economie. Tutto giusto, ci piace. Ma c’è un piccolo problema che, come abbiamo già notato, si chiama destino planetario, la consapevolezza che l’umanità dovrebbe maturare della “Terra Patria”, nostra casa comune, che ci piaccia o meno. Quella consapevolezza passa dalla riappropriazione politico-strategica del fatto che siamo vincolati, pur appartenendo ciascuno a uno specifico complesso: essere insieme, convivere, è la sfida dei prossimi anni. E non lo potremo fare se continuiamo sulla linea tracciata della linearità, della competizione esasperata e della separazione.
Abbiamo il massimo rispetto del comunicato finale che verrà dal G7 dei leader dei mondo: eppure la vita evolve nelle periferie esistenziali, nel profondo dei mondi. Un pò più di rispetto meriterebbe quella complessità vitale, anima della storia, che non entrerà – temiamo – nell’atteso comunicato finale.
(english version)
We live in a fragile time. The West, which still moves around believing itself the centre of the world, has a sad face: called upon to contain the Chinese advance, it talks of derisking (a more sweetened version of decoupling). There is an objective theme of fear of the open sea of globality, that sea which, with disregard for danger and in the self-deception of the end of history, we decided to sail a few decades ago.
The boat of the West has realised that it cannot hold the above-mentioned open sea (due to excessive storms and traffic) but, at the same time, it is clear – albeit amidst now established divisions – that it must talk to Beijing. In fragile but interconnected times, no one can do without the others.
Interconnectedness demands rules of conduct, and it is these that we did not work on in the glorious decades that preceded our awareness of the return of stories. This is why we write about ‘geoApolitics’, an analysis and attempt to govern (called governance…) planetary dynamics. Everything has gone linearly but, compared to our still twentieth-century convictions, it is reality that has gone in a stubbornly contrary direction: we see it today, immersed in a change of era that shows the political-strategic unsustainability of the world and worlds.
We are all sovereign, we would all like to live in peace and security at home, safeguarding our traditions and economies. All right, we like that. But there is a small problem which, as we have already noted, is called planetary destiny, the awareness that humanity should mature of the ‘Earth as our homeland’, our common home, whether we like it or not. That awareness passes through the political-strategic re-appropriation of the fact that we are bound together, even though we each belong to a specific complex: being together, living together, is the challenge of the coming years. And we will not be able to do this if we continue along the traced line of linearity, exasperated competition and separation.
We have the utmost respect for the final communiqué to come from the G7 of world leaders: yet life evolves in the existential peripheries, in the depths of the worlds. A little more respect would deserve that vital complexity, the soul of history, which will not – we fear – enter into the long-awaited final communiqué
(version française)
Nous vivons une époque fragile. L’Occident, qui continue à se croire le centre du monde, fait triste figure : appelé à contenir l’avancée chinoise, il parle de derisking (version plus édulcorée de decoupling). Il y a un thème objectif de peur du grand large de la globalité, cette mer sur laquelle, au mépris du danger et dans l’auto-illusion de la fin de l’histoire, nous avons décidé de naviguer il y a quelques décennies.
Le bateau de l’Occident s’est rendu compte qu’il ne pouvait pas tenir le large susmentionné (en raison des tempêtes et du trafic excessifs) mais, en même temps, il est clair – bien qu’au milieu de divisions désormais établies – qu’il doit parler à Pékin. En ces temps fragiles mais interconnectés, personne ne peut se passer des autres.
L’interconnexion exige des règles de conduite, et c’est sur celles-ci que nous n’avons pas travaillé pendant les décennies glorieuses qui ont précédé notre prise de conscience du retour des histoires. C’est pourquoi nous écrivons sur la “géoApolitique”, analyse et tentative de gouvernement (appelée gouvernance…) des dynamiques planétaires. Tout s’est déroulé linéairement mais, par rapport à nos convictions encore vingtièmistes, c’est la réalité qui a pris une direction obstinément contraire : nous le voyons aujourd’hui, plongés dans un changement d’ère qui montre l’insoutenabilité politico-stratégique du monde et des mondes.
Nous sommes tous souverains, nous aimerions tous vivre en paix et en sécurité chez nous, en sauvegardant nos traditions et nos économies. D’accord, nous aimons cela. Mais il y a un petit problème qui, comme nous l’avons déjà noté, s’appelle le destin planétaire, la conscience que l’humanité doit mûrir de la “Terre come patrie”, notre maison commune, que nous le voulions ou non. Cette prise de conscience passe par la réappropriation politico-stratégique du fait que nous sommes liés, même si nous appartenons chacun à un complexe spécifique : être ensemble, vivre ensemble, c’est le défi des années à venir. Et nous n’y parviendrons pas si nous continuons à suivre la ligne tracée de la linéarité, de la compétition exacerbée et de la séparation.
Nous avons le plus grand respect pour le communiqué final du G7 des dirigeants mondiaux : pourtant, la vie se déroule dans les périphéries existentielles, dans les profondeurs des mondes. Un peu plus de respect mériterait cette complexité vitale, l’âme de l’histoire, qui n’entrera pas – nous le craignons – dans le communiqué final tant attendu
PROSPETTIVE GEOSTRATEGICHE DAI THINK TANK
GEOSTRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES FROM THINK TANK
PERSPECTIVES GÉOSTRATÉGIQUES DES THINK TANKS
Mondi
Australia
Guy Boekenstein scrive sui progressi di innovazione nel campo della difesa in Australia del Nord – Guy Boekenstein writes on the progress of defence innovation in North Australia – Guy Boekenstein écrit sur les progrès de l’innovation en matière de défense en Australie du Nord – Bolstering defence innovation in Australia’s north | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Kate Grayson scrive dello scontro in atto, in Australia, sul Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security – Kate Grayson writes about the ongoing clash in Australia over the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security – Kate Grayson remporte le débat en Australie, au sein du Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security – Gatekeeping the parliamentary intelligence committee won’t make Australia safer | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – Indonesia
Ridvan Kilic scrive delle relazioni tra Australia e dell’Indonesia e dell’importanza della politica estera “First Nations” – Ridvan Kilic writes about Australia-Indonesia relations and the importance of ‘First Nations’ foreign policy – Ridvan Kilic parle des relations entre l’Australie et l’Indonésie et de l’importance de la politique étrangère “First Nations” – First Nations diplomacy can transform Australia’s relationship with Indonesia | Lowy Institute
Europe
Stefan Auer e Nicole Scicluna discutono dello Stato di diritto in Europa e di quali conseguenze la guerra in Ucraina abbia sull’integrazione del continente – Stefan Auer and Nicole Scicluna discuss the rule of law in Europe and what consequences the war in Ukraine has on the integration of the continent – Stefan Auer et Nicole Scicluna discutent de l’État de droit en Europe et des conséquences de la guerre en Ukraine sur l’intégration du continent – The EU must face up to its rule of law crisis | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Europe – Russia – Central Asia
Nurbek Bekmurzaev scrive che l’undicesimo pacchetto europeo di sanzioni europee contro Mosca potrebbe interessare anche Paesi dell’Asia Centrale – Nurbek Bekmurzaev writes that the 11th European sanctions package against Moscow could also affect Central Asian countries – Nurbek Bekmurzaev écrit que le 11e paquet de sanctions européennes contre Moscou pourrait également affecter les pays d’Asie centrale – Will the EU Slap Sanctions on Central Asia? – Jamestown
Francia
Shlomo Ben-Ami scrive della politica “gollista” di Macron – Shlomo Ben-Ami writes about Macron’s ‘Gaullist’ policy – Shlomo Ben-Ami écrit sur la politique “gaulliste” de Macron – Macron’s Gaullist foreign policy | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
India
Anshuman Behera scrive della delicata questione nello Stato del Manipur, attraversato da conflitti etnici radicati – Anshuman Behera writes about the sensitive issue in the state of Manipur, which is riven by deep-rooted ethnic conflicts – Anshuman Behera écrit sur la question sensible de l’État de Manipur, qui est déchiré par des conflits ethniques profondément enracinés – Interpreting the ethnic strife in Manipur | ORF (orfonline.org)
India – ASEAN – South China Sea
Abhijit Singh scrive che, pur dopo l’esercitazione marittima India – ASEAN svoltasi all’inizio di maggio, Delhi mantiene un atteggiamento di cautela rispetto alle operazioni militari nelle zone contese del Mar Cinese Meridionale – Abhijit Singh writes that even after the India-ASEAN maritime exercise in early May, Delhi remains cautious about military operations in the disputed areas of the South China Sea – Abhijit Singh écrit que même après l’exercice maritime Inde-ASEAN de début mai, Delhi reste prudent quant aux opérations militaires dans les zones contestées de la mer de Chine méridionale – India’s South China Sea posture is still in its infancy | ORF (orfonline.org)
India – Maldive
Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy scrive del rafforzamento della cooperazione in materia di difesa tra India e Maldive – Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy writes about strengthening defence cooperation between India and the Maldives – Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy écrit sur le renforcement de la coopération en matière de défense entre l’Inde et les Maldives – India-Maldives defence cooperation: Partnership and partisanship | ORF (orfonline.org)
Iran
Raz Zimmt scrive della crescente distanza, in Iran, tra l’opinione pubblica, il regime e i chierici – Raz Zimmt writes about the growing distance in Iran between public opinion, the regime and clerics – Raz Zimmt écrit sur la distance croissante en Iran entre l’opinion publique, le régime et les religieux – Growing Public Hostility toward Iranian Clerics | INSS
Israel – Palestine
Yoni Ben Menachem scrive che le organizzazioni terroristiche della Striscia di Gaza hanno riattivato la sala di comando militare congiunta – Yoni Ben Menachem writes that terrorist organisations in the Gaza Strip have reactivated the joint military command room – Yoni Ben Menachem écrit que les organisations terroristes de Gaza ont réactivé la salle de commandement militaire commune – The Joint Headquarters of the Palestinian Terrorist Organizations in Gaza Reopened (jcpa.org)
Israel – Palestine – Iran
Jacques Neriah scrive del ruolo dell’Iran nel sostenere la Palestinian Islamic Jihad e Hamas – Jacques Neriah writes about Iran’s role in supporting the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas – Jacques Neriah écrit sur le rôle de l’Iran dans le soutien au Palestinian Islamic Jihad et au Hamas – Iran Reinforces Its Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad Proxies (jcpa.org)
Nepal
Hari Bansh Jha scrive della difficile situazione economica del Nepal, pur con l’ambizione di raggiungere lo status di Paese a medio reddito nei prossimi tre anni – Hari Bansh Jha writes about Nepal’s difficult economic situation, despite its ambition to achieve middle-income status in the next three years – Hari Bansh Jha écrit sur la situation économique difficile du Népal, malgré son ambition d’atteindre le statut de pays à revenu intermédiaire dans les trois prochaines années – Economic crisis on the rise in Nepal | ORF (orfonline.org)
Amish Raj Mulmi descrive i risultati delle recenti elezioni in Nepal e l’evoluzione della situazione politica – Amish Raj Mulmi describes the results of the recent elections in Nepal and the evolving political situation – Amish Raj Mulmi décrit les résultats des récentes élections au Népal et l’évolution de la situation politique – New contours in Nepali politics | ORF (orfonline.org)
Palestine
Haji Huseynov scrive dell’importanza della sostenibilità per le città palestinesi – Haji Huseynov writes about the importance of sustainability for Palestinian cities – Haji Huseynov écrit sur l’importance de la durabilité pour les villes palestiniennes – How do we build sustainable Palestinian cities of the future? (worldbank.org)
QUAD
Kate Clayton e Eleanor Shiori Hughes scrivono del futuro del gruppo QUAD – Kate Clayton and Eleanor Shiori Hughes write about the future of the QUAD group – Kate Clayton et Eleanor Shiori Hughes s’expriment sur l’avenir du groupe QUAD – Building a Quad that lasts to the next generation | Lowy Institute
Russia
Pavel Luzin propone una stima delle reali capacità militari di Mosca – Pavel Luzin proposes an estimate of Moscow’s real military capabilities – Pavel Luzin propose une estimation des capacités militaires réelles de Moscou – Russia’s Estimated Storage of Cruise Missiles, May 2023 – Jamestown
South Asia
Jiemin Ren e Zoe Leiyu Xie scrivono delle sfide e delle opportunità che devono affrontare le economie dell’Asia Meridionale – Jiemin Ren and Zoe Leiyu Xie write about the challenges and opportunities facing South Asian economies – Jiemin Ren et Zoe Leiyu Xie s’intéressent aux défis et aux opportunités auxquels sont confrontées les économies d’Asie du Sud – A mixed bag for South Asian economies: Challenges and opportunities ahead (worldbank.org)
Turkmenistan
Paul Globe scrive dell’importanza crescente del Turkmenistan come hub di trasporto. C’è grande attenzione al Paese non solo a livello regionale ma anche da parte di player globali – Paul Globe writes about the growing importance of Turkmenistan as a transport hub. There is great interest in the country not only regionally but also from global players – Paul Globe évoque l’importance croissante du Turkménistan en tant que plaque tournante du transport. Le pays suscite un grand intérêt non seulement au niveau régional, mais aussi de la part des acteurs mondiaux – Turkmenistan Steps Up Its Effort to Become an International Transit Hub – Jamestown
USA – China
Manoj Joshi descrive i risultati dei recenti colloqui avvenuti a Vienna tra il consigliere per la sicurezza nazionale degli Stati Uniti, Jake Sullivan, e Wang Yi, Membro del Politburo del Partito Comunista Cinese e direttore dell’Ufficio della Commissione per gli Affari Esteri – Manoj Joshi describes the results of recent talks in Vienna between the US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, and Wang Yi, Politburo Member of the Communist Party of China and Director of the Foreign Affairs Committee Office – Manoj Joshi décrit les résultats des récents entretiens à Vienne entre le conseiller américain à la sécurité nationale, Jake Sullivan, et Wang Yi, membre du Politburo du Parti communiste chinois et directeur du bureau de la commission des affaires étrangères – Where is US’s China policy headed? | ORF (orfonline.org)
Vietnam
Toan Le descrive le difficoltà legislative, in Vietnam, in materia di terreni, alloggi e immobili – Toan Le describes the legislative difficulties in Vietnam regarding land, housing and real estate – Toan Le décrit les difficultés législatives au Viêt Nam en ce qui concerne la terre, le logement et l’immobilier – Vietnam’s land and housing reforms stick to the statist status quo | East Asia Forum
Global topics
Artificial Intelligence
Anton van den Hengel scrive dell’impatto dell’intelligenza artificiale sulla democrazia, passando dall’informazione – Anton van den Hengel writes about the impact of artificial intelligence on democracy, moving from information – Anton van den Hengel écrit sur l’impact de l’intelligence artificielle sur la démocratie, passant de l’information – AI vs democracy: the battle is already here | Lowy Institute
Cities
Bernice Van Bronkhorst, Mark Roberts e Megha Mukim scrivono della centralità delle città per affrontare il cambiamento climatico – Bernice Van Bronkhorst, Mark Roberts and Megha Mukim write about the centrality of cities in tackling climate change – Bernice Van Bronkhorst, Mark Roberts et Megha Mukim écrivent sur le rôle central des villes dans la lutte contre le changement climatique – The transformative power of cities: tackling climate change through green, resilient, and inclusive urban development (worldbank.org)
Climate Action
Tania Abraham, Baljit Wadhwa e Chandni Dinakaran scrivono dell’importanza di effettuare screening del rischio climatico e di catastrofe – Tania Abraham, Baljit Wadhwa and Chandni Dinakaran write about the importance of climate and disaster risk screening – Tania Abraham, Baljit Wadhwa et Chandni Dinakaran écrivent sur l’importance de la surveillance du climat et des risques de catastrophes – Climate and disaster risk screening – A building block for Paris Alignment (worldbank.org)
Cybersecurity
James Andrew Lewis e Georgia Wood scrivono, sullo sfondo della guerra in Ucraina, di come l’Occidente debba costruire una resilienza informatica solida e collettiva – James Andrew Lewis and Georgia Wood write, looking at the war in Ukraine, about how the West must build a robust and collective cyber resilience – James Andrew Lewis et Georgia Wood expliquent, à propos de la guerre en Ukraine, comment l’Occident doit se doter d’une cyber-résilience solide et collective – Evolving Cyber Operations and Capabilities (csis.org)
Finance
Aaron Klein scrive della finanza decentralizzata. E’ il futuro della finanza ? – Aaron Klein writes about decentralised finance. Is this the future of finance? – Aaron Klein écrit sur la finance décentralisée. Est-ce l’avenir de la finance ? – Review: DeFi and the Future of Finance (brookings.edu)
G7
Marianne Schneider-Petsinger scrive che il G7 in Giappone si concentra sulla cooperazione per la sicurezza economica – Marianne Schneider-Petsinger writes that the G7 in Japan focuses on economic security cooperation – Marianne Schneider-Petsinger écrit que le G7 au Japon se concentre sur la coopération en matière de sécurité économique – Marianne Schneider-Petsinger | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
G20 – Agriculture
Un rapporto sull’utilizzo di tecnologie emergenti per migliorare la produzione agricola, la sicurezza alimentare e contribuire al raggiungimento degli Obiettivi di sviluppo sostenibile – A report on the use of emerging technologies to improve agricultural production, food security and contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals – Rapport sur l’utilisation des technologies émergentes pour améliorer la production agricole et la sécurité alimentaire et contribuer à la réalisation des objectifs de développement durable – Towards Smart Agriculture: Advancing G20 Cooperation in Agricultural Biotechnology | ORF (orfonline.org)
Un rapporto sottolinea la cooperazione multilaterale in ambito G20 per ridurre le criticità portate dall’attuale sistema agroalimentare e per migliorare la produzione locale, sana e diversificata – A report emphasises multilateral cooperation within the G20 to reduce the criticalities brought about by the current agri-food system and to improve local, healthy and diversified production – Un rapport met l’accent sur la coopération multilatérale au sein du G20 en vue de réduire les difficultés engendrées par le système agroalimentaire actuel et d’améliorer la production locale, saine et diversifiée – Promoting Diversity in Agricultural Production Towards Healthy and Sustainable Consumption | ORF (orfonline.org)
G20 – WTO
Un rapporto sulla riforma del WTO per meccanismi puù a favore dei Paesi meno sviluppati. Il ruolo del G20 a guida indiana – A report on WTO reform for more pro-LDC mechanisms. The role of the Indian-led G20 – Un rapport sur la réforme de l’OMC pour des mécanismes plus favorables aux PMA. Le rôle du G20 dirigé par l’Inde – Establishing a Consensus on Development: On G20-Led WTO Reforms | ORF (orfonline.org)
