Geostrategic magazine (it-en-fr, 7 july 2023)

Bussola, Gradi, Nord, Est, Sud, West

Jeffrey Cimmino (Atlantic Council) propone quattro scenari per il futuro della Russia (1)

Grigory Ioffe (The Jamestown Foundation) analizza il dibattito sul ruolo di Lukashenka nella crisi provocata da Prigozhin (2)

Stephen Blank (The Jamestown Foundation) approfondisce la crescente distanza tra Mosca e i Paesi dell’Asia Centrale. Il focus, in particolare, è su Kazakistan e Uzbekistan (3)

Franklin D. Kramer, Hans Binnendijk e Christopher Skaluba (Atlantic Council) scrivono sul prossimo vertice NATO di Vilnius e sui passi verso l’Ucraina: un impegno duraturo di sostegno agli armamenti; la trasformazione della Commissione NATO-Ucraina in un “Consiglio”; la definizione di un percorso “concreto” per l’adesione di Kiev all’Alleanza (4)

Secondo Mykola Bielieskov (RUSI), relazioni adeguate tra Kiev e la NATO sono una parte cruciale della soluzione al problema del revisionismo russo (4.1)

Mark F. Cancian e Sean Monaghan, in un report per CSIS, affrontano il tema della presenza NATO nei Paesi Baltici (Lituania, Lettonia, Estonia). Secondo gli Autori è urgente attuare gli impegni presi durante il vertice di Madrid (5)

David Daoud (Atlantic Council) nota come Hezbollah e i funzionari iraniani abbiano un triplice e ambizioso obiettivo che va ben oltre l’innescare periodicamente il caos sparso in Israele (6)

Fuad Shahbazov (The Jamestown Foundation) sottolinea come la nomina di Fidan a ministro degli Esteri turco arrivi in un momento di incertezza per la politica estera di Ankara, in bilico tra l’Occidente e la Russia, impegnata nella normalizzazione diplomatica con i suoi vicini in Medio Oriente e nella diplomazia nel Caucaso meridionale e in Asia centrale (7)

Un podcast di Chatham House approfondisce le sfide e le innovazioni emerse dai processi di pace interconnessi in Sierra Leone e Liberia – tra cui l’istituzione dell’importante Processo di Kimberley, di cui quest’anno ricorre il 20° anniversario – e le lezioni più ampie su come è stata raggiunta una pace duratura nella regione (8)

Luz María de la Mora (Atlantic Council) scrive a proposito dell’accordo USMCA tra Stati Uniti, Canada e Messico. La revisione è prevista per il 2026. A che punto è il Messico ? (9)

Nicholas R Lardy e Tianlei Huang (East Asia Forum) notano che il disaccoppiamento in ambito tecnologico avrà conseguenze negative sia per gli USA che per la Cina (10)

David Brewster e Samuel Bashfield (ASPI The Strategist) osservano come le visite regolari di navi e aerei australiani in India e in altri Paesi partner dell’Oceano Indiano nord-orientale saranno importanti anche per sviluppare la presenza marittima e di sorveglianza dell’Australia nell’Oceano Indiano orientale (11)

Colin Heseltine (ASPI The Strategist) spiega perché il recente incontro tra Blinken e Xi potrebbe essere importante per le relazioni tra Australia e Cina (12)

John Garrick (ASPI The Strategist) approfondisce l’importante presenza di Australia, Giappone, Nuova Zelanda e Corea del Sud (AP4) al vertice NATO di Vilnius (come era già successo al vertice di Madrid 2022) (13)

Anna Powles (Lowy The Interpreter), guardando alle isole Salomone, argomenta sulla competizione (tra Australia e Cina) per la sicurezza nel Pacifico (14)

Premesha Saha (ORF) analizza l’evoluzione dei rapporti strategici tra India e Corea del Sud nelle dinamiche della regione Indo-Pacifica (15)

Nel contesto del posizionamento dei diversi Paesi nel Mar Cinese Meridionale, Rajaram Panda (VIF) scrive dei rapporti tra Cina e Vietnam sia dal punto di vista economico che geostrategico (Mar Cinese Meridionale). Il posizionamento dell’India è da considerare con attenzione (16)

Piotr Buras e Engjellushe Morina (ECFR) scrivono a proposito dell’allargamento dell’UE. Durante la presidenza spagnola, la UE dovrà mettere in atto un piano funzionale per poter accettare i Paesi dei Balcani occidentali oltre a Ucraina, Moldavia e Georgia. L’UE dovrebbe fare quattro cose: fissare una data obiettivo per l’allargamento al 2030; concordare un piano per adattare le politiche dell’UE all’accettazione di nuovi membri; formulare un “criterio di Madrid” di allineamento della politica estera per gli aspiranti membri; concedere al Kosovo lo status di candidato (17)

Anthony Dworkin (ECFR) sottolinea come, dopo la pandemia da Covid-19, sia urgente organizzare una risposta globale contro le future pandemie, soprattutto guardando ai Paesi più poveri. Il possibile ruolo dell’Europa (18)

ASPI The Strategist propone l’aggiormanento dei cinque domini: il 1° luglio 2023 è stata istituita l’Australian Submarine Agency per gestire la consegna della flotta di otto sottomarini a propulsione nucleare della Royal Australian Navy prevista a partire dal 2032; una nuova corvetta russa, la Rezkiy, ha testato le sue difese aeree mercoledì nel Mar del Giappone; il ministero della Difesa lituano ha annunciato l’acquisto di due sistemi di difesa aerea terrestre NASAMS per l’Ucraina; il Dipartimento di Stato degli Stati Uniti ha approvato la proposta di vendita di 24 aerei F-35 Lightning II, insieme a munizioni e attrezzature correlate, alla Repubblica Ceca; la multinazionale britannica BAE Systems ha testato i requisiti di squadra con equipaggio e senza equipaggio sul suo veicolo da combattimento anfibio (ACV) 8×8 C4UAS; l’Australia spenderà 700 milioni di dollari per ammodernare la sua base aerea di Townsville per ospitare una flotta di 29 elicotteri AH-64E Apache che arriveranno a partire dal 2025; il governo australiano ha annunciato lo smantellamento del programma National Space Mission for Earth Observation; Hypersonix ha ottenuto un brevetto statunitense per il motore che alimenterà i suoi “spazioplani” ipersonici; un’azienda satellitare russa che serve l’esercito e l’intelligence russa è stata vittima di un attacco informatico la scorsa settimana; il Sudafrica ha firmato un accordo di cooperazione con la Francia in base al quale gli esperti francesi forniranno formazione all’Unità investigativa speciale sudafricana per rafforzare le sue capacità di indagine forense informatica (19)

Roland Rajah e Georgia Hammersley (Lowy The Interpreter) approfondiscono i modesti risultati del recente vertice sul finanziamento globale per il clima tenutosi a Parigi (20)

English version

Jeffrey Cimmino (Atlantic Council) proposes four scenarios for the future of Russia (1)

Grigory Ioffe (The Jamestown Foundation) analyses the debate on Lukashenka’s role in the crisis caused by Prigozhin (2)

Stephen Blank (The Jamestown Foundation) explores the growing distance between Moscow and the Central Asian countries. The focus, in particular, is on Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (3)

Franklin D. Kramer, Hans Binnendijk and Christopher Skaluba (Atlantic Council) write about the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius and the steps towards Ukraine: a sustained commitment to arms support; the transformation of the NATO-Ukraine Commission into a ‘Council’; the definition of a ‘concrete’ path for Kiev’s accession to the Alliance (4)

According to Mykola Bielieskov (RUSI), proper relations between Kiev and NATO are a crucial part of the solution to the problem of Russian revisionism (4.1)

Mark F. Cancian and Sean Monaghan, in a report for CSIS, address the issue of the NATO presence in the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia). According to the authors, there is an urgent need to implement the commitments made at the Madrid summit (5)

David Daoud (Atlantic Council) notes how Hezbollah and Iranian officials have a threefold and ambitious goal that goes far beyond periodically triggering chaos in Israel (6)

Fuad Shahbazov (The Jamestown Foundation) points out how Fidan’s appointment as Turkey’s foreign minister comes at a time of uncertainty for Ankara’s foreign policy, poised between the West and Russia, engaged in diplomatic normalisation with its neighbours in the Middle East and diplomacy in the South Caucasus and Central Asia (7)

A Chatham House podcast delves into the challenges and innovations that have emerged from the interconnected peace processes in Sierra Leone and Liberia – including the establishment of the landmark Kimberley Process, the 20th anniversary of which marks this year – and the broader lessons of how lasting peace has been achieved in the region (8)

Luz María de la Mora (Atlantic Council) writes about the USMCA agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico. The review is scheduled for 2026. Where does Mexico stand? (9)

Nicholas R Lardy and Tianlei Huang (East Asia Forum) note that decoupling in technology will have negative consequences for both the US and China (10)

David Brewster and Samuel Bashfield (ASPI The Strategist) note how regular visits by Australian ships and aircraft to India and other Northeast Indian Ocean partner countries will also be important in developing Australia’s maritime and surveillance presence in the eastern Indian Ocean (11)

Colin Heseltine (ASPI The Strategist) explains why the recent meeting between Blinken and Xi could be important for Australia-China relations (12)

John Garrick (ASPI The Strategist) elaborates on the important presence of Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea (AP4) at the Vilnius NATO summit (as was the case at the Madrid 2022 summit) (13)

Anna Powles (Lowy The Interpreter), looking at the Solomon Islands, argues about the competition (between Australia and China) for security in the Pacific (14)

Premesha Saha (ORF) analyses the evolution of the strategic relationship between India and South Korea in the dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region (15)

In the context of the positioning of the different countries in the South China Sea, Rajaram Panda (VIF) writes about the relationship between China and Vietnam both economically and geostrategically (South China Sea). India’s positioning is to be carefully considered (16)

Piotr Buras and Engjellushe Morina (ECFR) write about EU enlargement. During the Spanish presidency, the EU will have to implement a functional plan to accept the Western Balkan countries in addition to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. The EU should do four things: set an enlargement target date of 2030; agree on a plan to adapt EU policies to accept new members; formulate a ‘Madrid criterion’ of foreign policy alignment for aspiring members; grant Kosovo candidate status (17)

Anthony Dworkin (ECFR) emphasises that in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, there is an urgent need to organise a global response against future pandemics, especially looking at the poorest countries. The possible role of Europe (18)

ASPI The Strategist proposes the updating of the five domains: 1 July 2023 saw the establishment of the Australian Submarine Agency to manage the delivery of the Royal Australian Navy’s fleet of eight nuclear-powered submarines scheduled to start in 2032; a new Russian corvette, the Rezkiy, tested its air defences on Wednesday in the Sea of Japan; the Lithuanian Ministry of Defence announced the purchase of two NASAMS land-based air defence systems for Ukraine; the US State Department approved the proposed sale of 24 F-35 Lightning II aircraft, along with ammunition and related equipment, to the Czech Republic; British multinational BAE Systems tested the manned and unmanned squadron requirements on its C4UAS 8×8 amphibious combat vehicle (ACV); Australia will spend $700 million to modernise its Townsville airbase to house a fleet of 29 AH-64E Apache helicopters that will arrive starting in 2025; the Australian government announced the dismantling of the National Space Mission for Earth Observation programme; Hypersonix has obtained a US patent for the engine that will power its hypersonic ‘spaceplanes’; a Russian satellite company serving the Russian army and intelligence was the victim of a cyber attack last week; South Africa signed a cooperation agreement with France under which French experts will provide training to the South African Special Investigation Unit to strengthen its cyber forensic investigation capabilities (19)

Roland Rajah and Georgia Hammersley (Lowy The Interpreter) elaborate on the modest results of the recent global climate finance summit in Paris (20)

Version française

Jeffrey Cimmino (Atlantic Council) propose quatre scénarios pour l’avenir de la Russie (1)

Grigory Ioffe (The Jamestown Foundation) analyse le débat sur le rôle de Lukashenka dans la crise provoquée par Prigozhin (2)

Stephen Blank (The Jamestown Foundation) explore la distance croissante entre Moscou et les pays d’Asie centrale. L’accent est mis en particulier sur le Kazakhstan et l’Ouzbékistan (3)

Franklin D. Kramer, Hans Binnendijk et Christopher Skaluba (Atlantic Council) évoquent le prochain sommet de l’OTAN à Vilnius et les mesures prises à l’égard de l’Ukraine : un engagement soutenu en faveur du soutien aux armements, la transformation de la Commission OTAN-Ukraine en un “Conseil”, la définition d’une voie “concrète” pour l’adhésion de Kiev à l’Alliance (4).

Selon Mykola Bielieskov (RUSI), des relations appropriées entre Kiev et l’OTAN sont un élément crucial de la solution au problème du révisionnisme russe (4.1).

Mark F. Cancian et Sean Monaghan, dans un rapport pour le CSIS, abordent la question de la présence de l’OTAN dans les États baltes (Lituanie, Lettonie, Estonie). Selon les auteurs, il est urgent de mettre en œuvre les engagements pris lors du sommet de Madrid (5)

David Daoud (Atlantic Council) note que les responsables du Hezbollah et de l’Iran ont un triple objectif ambitieux qui va bien au-delà du déclenchement périodique du chaos en Israël (6)

Fuad Shahbazov (The Jamestown Foundation) souligne que la nomination de Fidan au poste de ministre turc des affaires étrangères intervient à un moment d’incertitude pour la politique étrangère d’Ankara, coincée entre l’Occident et la Russie, engagée dans une normalisation diplomatique avec ses voisins au Moyen-Orient et dans une diplomatie dans le Caucase du Sud et en Asie centrale (7).

Un podcast de Chatham House examine les défis et les innovations qui ont émergé des processus de paix interconnectés en Sierra Leone et au Liberia – y compris l’établissement du processus de Kimberley, dont le 20e anniversaire est célébré cette année – et les leçons plus larges sur la façon dont une paix durable a été obtenue dans la région (8).

Luz María de la Mora (Conseil atlantique) écrit sur l’accord USMCA entre les États-Unis, le Canada et le Mexique. La révision est prévue pour 2026. Quelle est la position du Mexique ? (9)

Nicholas R Lardy et Tianlei Huang (East Asia Forum) notent que le découplage technologique aura des conséquences négatives tant pour les États-Unis que pour la Chine (10)

David Brewster et Samuel Bashfield (ASPI The Strategist) notent que les visites régulières de navires et d’avions australiens en Inde et dans d’autres pays partenaires du nord-est de l’océan Indien seront également importantes pour développer la présence maritime et de surveillance de l’Australie dans l’est de l’océan Indien (11).

Colin Heseltine (ASPI The Strategist) explique pourquoi la récente rencontre entre Blinken et Xi pourrait être importante pour les relations entre l’Australie et la Chine (12)

John Garrick (ASPI The Strategist) explique la présence importante de l’Australie, du Japon, de la Nouvelle-Zélande et de la Corée du Sud (AP4) au sommet de l’OTAN de Vilnius (comme ce fut le cas au sommet de Madrid 2022) (13)

Anna Powles (Lowy The Interpreter), se penchant sur les îles Salomon, évoque la concurrence (entre l’Australie et la Chine) pour la sécurité dans le Pacifique (14).

Premesha Saha (ORF) analyse l’évolution de la relation stratégique entre l’Inde et la Corée du Sud dans la dynamique de la région indo-pacifique (15).

Dans le contexte du positionnement des différents pays en mer de Chine méridionale, Rajaram Panda (VIF) écrit sur la relation entre la Chine et le Vietnam tant sur le plan économique que géostratégique (mer de Chine méridionale). Le positionnement de l’Inde doit être considéré avec attention (16)

Piotr Buras et Engjellushe Morina (ECFR) écrivent sur l’élargissement de l’UE. Pendant la présidence espagnole, l’UE devra mettre en œuvre un plan fonctionnel pour accepter les pays des Balkans occidentaux en plus de l’Ukraine, de la Moldavie et de la Géorgie. L’UE devrait faire quatre choses : fixer une date cible pour l’élargissement à 2030 ; convenir d’un plan pour adapter les politiques de l’UE afin d’accepter de nouveaux membres ; formuler un “critère de Madrid” d’alignement de la politique étrangère pour les membres aspirants ; accorder au Kosovo le statut de candidat (17).

Anthony Dworkin (ECFR) souligne qu’à la suite de la pandémie du virus Covid-19, il est urgent d’organiser une réponse globale contre les pandémies futures, en particulier en ce qui concerne les pays les plus pauvres. Le rôle possible de l’Europe (18)

L’ASPI Le Stratège propose la mise à jour des cinq domaines : le 1er juillet 2023 a vu la création de l’Australian Submarine Agency pour gérer la livraison de la flotte de huit sous-marins nucléaires de la Royal Australian Navy prévue à partir de 2032 ; une nouvelle corvette russe, le Rezkiy, a testé ses défenses aériennes mercredi en mer du Japon ; le ministère lituanien de la Défense a annoncé l’achat de deux systèmes de défense aérienne terrestres NASAMS pour l’Ukraine ; Le ministère lituanien de la défense a annoncé l’achat de deux systèmes de défense aérienne terrestres NASAMS pour l’Ukraine ; le département d’État américain a approuvé le projet de vente de 24 avions F-35 Lightning II, ainsi que de munitions et d’équipements connexes, à la République tchèque ; la multinationale britannique BAE Systems a testé les exigences relatives aux escadrons habités et non habités sur son véhicule de combat amphibie (ACV) C4UAS 8×8 ; L’Australie va dépenser 700 millions de dollars pour moderniser sa base aérienne de Townsville afin d’accueillir une flotte de 29 hélicoptères AH-64E Apache qui arriveront à partir de 2025 ; le gouvernement australien a annoncé le démantèlement du programme National Space Mission for Earth Observation ; Hypersonix a obtenu un brevet américain pour le moteur qui propulsera ses “avions spatiaux” hypersoniques ; l’Afrique du Sud a signé un accord de coopération avec la France en vertu duquel des experts français dispenseront une formation à l’unité d’enquête spéciale sud-africaine afin de renforcer ses capacités d’investigation cybernétique (19).

Roland Rajah et Georgia Hammersley (Lowy The Interpreter) reviennent sur les résultats modestes du récent sommet mondial sur le financement du climat qui s’est tenu à Paris (20).

(1) Four scenarios for Russia’s future after the Wagner Group mutiny – Atlantic Council

(2) Debating Lukashenka’s True Role in Deflecting Russia’s Domestic Crisis – Jamestown

(3) Prigozhin Mutiny Further Distances Central Asia From Russia – Jamestown

(4) Here’s the ‘concrete’ path for Ukraine to join NATO – Atlantic Council

(4.1) Ukraine–NATO Relations: Closer Partnership or Membership? | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

(5) “Repel, Don’t Expel” (csis.org)

(6) Hezbollah and Iran have opened a fourth battlefront: Inside Israel – Atlantic Council

(7) How Will Hakan Fidan’s Appointment Shift Turkish Diplomacy in Its Neighborhood? – Jamestown

(8) Africa Aware: Reflections on Sierra Leone’s peace process | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

(9) A midterm report card for Mexico’s USMCA progress – Atlantic Council

(10) Is US–China decoupling heading in a dangerous direction? | East Asia Forum

(11) Indian aircraft visit Cocos Islands as Australia strengthens its maritime security network | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)