I risultati del vertice NATO di Vilnius analizzati da: Fred Kempe (Atlantic Council) (1); esperti del Council on Foreign Relations (1.1); esperti dei think tank PISM, IAI, and SVOP (1.2); analisti del think tank CSIS (1.3); William George (Chatham House) (1.4).
Vladimir Socor (The Jamestown Foundation) descrive una NATO sostanzialmente ‘attendista’ rispetto all’Ucraina (2). Orysia Lutsevych (Chatham House) scrive che il vertice NATO ha deluso Kiev ma non l’ha scoraggiata (2.1)
Jennifer Parker (ASPI The Strategist) sottolinea, rispetto al vertice NATO, come l’Australia debba continuare a sostenere in modo proattivo l’inscindibilità della sicurezza euro-atlantica e di quella indo-pacifica (3).
Grady Wilson (Atlantic Council), dopo il via libera di Erdogan all’adesione della Svezia alla NATO, scrive della postura pragmatica della Turchia verso l’Occidente dopo le ultime elezioni presidenziali (4). Ruslan Suleymanov (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) approfondisce la difficile situazione economica della Turchia, il bisogno dei capitali occidentali e il legame con Mosca (4.1).
Christopher Hernandez-Roy e Rubi Bledsoe (CSIS) analizzano il traffico di droga, in particolare cocaina, dai Caraibi all’Europa e sottolineano la necessità di maggiore cooperazione tra Stati Uniti, Europa e Paesi caraibici (5).
La nuova strategia tedesca verso la Cina analizzata da: esperti di Atlantic Council (6); Lily McElwee e Ilaria Mazzocco (CSIS) (6.1).
Fabio Figiaconi (East Asia Forum) analizza il crescente interesse dell’Italia per l’area dell’Indo-Pacifico e l’importanza di avere una strategia articolata per la regione (7).
Tim Willasey-Wilsey CMG (RUSI) approfondisce la complessa relazione tra Washington e New Delhi in un quadro strategico in movimento (8)
Paul Globe (The Jamestown Foundation) scrive del problema sistemico e strutturale delle vie fluviali per la Russia (9).
Pavel Luzin (The Jamestown Foundation) sottolinea come, mentre la controffensiva ucraina continua, per le Forze Armate russe sta giungendo un punto di svolta critico. Un ulteriore degrado organizzativo e materiale dell’esercito russo potrebbe consentire al Cremlino di evitare la potenziale minaccia politica di alcuni generali militari, ma solo se prenderà seriamente in considerazione la possibilità di porre fine alla guerra prima che sia troppo tardi (10).
David Hutt (East Asia Forum) scrive del probabile passaggio di consegne, in Cambogia, tra il Primo Ministro Hun Sen e il figlio Hun Manet (11).
Seth Hays (East Asia Forum) sottolinea la necessità di un forum sulla governance dell’IA all’interno di un quadro di governance digitale asiatica (12).
William Ruto e Fatih Birol (ASPI The Strategist) riflettono sull’utilizzo di energia solare, idroelettrica, eolica e geotermica in Africa. Lo sfruttamento responsabile delle risorse naturali del continente sarà essenziale per il suo sviluppo (13).
Zainab Usman e Aline Abayo (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) sottolineano come l’Africa sia il continente con la popolazione più giovane e in più rapida crescita del mondo: oggi l’età media è di circa 19 anni ed entro il 2050 si prevede che tale popolazione rappresenterà il 23% della forza lavoro mondiale. Pertanto, è importante fornire un’istruzione di qualità e opportunità a milioni di giovani africani (14).
Joe Lo (Lowy The Interpreter) affronta il tema della sostenibilità del trasporto marittimo globale e del rialzo dei costi nella transizione verso la riduzione delle emissioni (15).
English version
The results of the Vilnius NATO summit analysed by: Fred Kempe (Atlantic Council) (1); experts from the Council on Foreign Relations (1.1); experts from the think tanks PISM, IAI, and SVOP (1.2); analysts from the think tank CSIS (1.3); William George (Chatham House) (1.4).
Vladimir Socor (The Jamestown Foundation) describes an essentially ‘wait-and-see’ NATO with respect to Ukraine (2). Orysia Lutsevych (Chatham House) writes that the NATO summit disappointed Kiev but did not discourage it (2.1)
Jennifer Parker (ASPI The Strategist) points out, with respect to the NATO summit, how Australia must continue to proactively advocate the inseparability of Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security (3).
Grady Wilson (Atlantic Council), after Erdogan’s green light to Sweden’s NATO membership, writes about Turkey’s pragmatic posture towards the West after the last presidential election (4). Ruslan Suleymanov (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) elaborates on Turkey’s difficult economic situation, the need for Western capital and the link with Moscow (4.1).
Christopher Hernandez-Roy and Rubi Bledsoe (CSIS) analyse the trafficking of drugs, particularly cocaine, from the Caribbean to Europe and emphasise the need for greater cooperation between the USA, Europe and Caribbean countries (5).
The new German strategy towards China analysed by: Atlantic Council experts (6); Lily McElwee and Ilaria Mazzocco (CSIS) (6.1).
Fabio Figiaconi (East Asia Forum) analyses Italy’s growing interest in the Indo-Pacific region and the importance of having an articulated strategy for the region (7).
Tim Willasey-Wilsey CMG (RUSI) explores the complex relationship between Washington and New Delhi in a shifting strategic framework (8)
Paul Globe (The Jamestown Foundation) writes about the systemic and structural problem of waterways to Russia (9).
Pavel Luzin (The Jamestown Foundation) points out that as the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues, a critical turning point is coming for the Russian Armed Forces. A further organisational and material degradation of the Russian Armed Forces could allow the Kremlin to avoid the potential political threat of some military generals, but only if it seriously considers ending the war before it is too late (10).
David Hutt (East Asia Forum) writes about the likely handover in Cambodia between Prime Minister Hun Sen and his son Hun Manet (11).
Seth Hays (East Asia Forum) emphasises the need for an AI governance forum within an Asian digital governance framework (12).
William Ruto and Fatih Birol (ASPI The Strategist) reflect on the use of solar, hydro, wind and geothermal energy in Africa. The responsible exploitation of the continent’s natural resources will be essential for its development (13).
Zainab Usman and Aline Abayo (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) point out that Africa is the continent with the youngest and fastest-growing population in the world: today, the average age is about 19 years old and by 2050 it is expected that this population will account for 23% of the world’s workforce. Therefore, it is important to provide quality education and opportunities to millions of young Africans (14).
Joe Lo (Lowy The Interpreter) addresses the issue of the sustainability of global shipping and the rising costs in the transition to emission reduction (15).
Version française
Les résultats du sommet de l’OTAN de Vilnius analysés par : Fred Kempe (Atlantic Council) (1) ; experts du Council on Foreign Relations (1.1) ; experts des think tanks PISM, IAI, et SVOP (1.2) ; analystes du think tank CSIS (1.3) ; William George (Chatham House) (1.4).
Vladimir Socor (The Jamestown Foundation) décrit une OTAN essentiellement attentiste à l’égard de l’Ukraine (2). Orysia Lutsevych (Chatham House) écrit que le sommet de l’OTAN a déçu Kiev mais ne l’a pas découragé (2.1).
Jennifer Parker (ASPI The Strategist) souligne, à propos du sommet de l’OTAN, que l’Australie doit continuer à défendre de manière proactive le caractère indissociable de la sécurité euro-atlantique et indo-pacifique (3).
Grady Wilson (Atlantic Council), après le feu vert donné par Erdogan à l’adhésion de la Suède à l’OTAN, écrit sur la position pragmatique de la Turquie à l’égard de l’Occident après les dernières élections présidentielles (4). Ruslan Suleymanov (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) explique la situation économique difficile de la Turquie, le besoin de capitaux occidentaux et le lien avec Moscou (4.1).
Christopher Hernandez-Roy et Rubi Bledsoe (CSIS) analysent le trafic de drogues, en particulier de cocaïne, des Caraïbes vers l’Europe et soulignent la nécessité d’une plus grande coopération entre les États-Unis, l’Europe et les pays des Caraïbes (5).
La nouvelle stratégie allemande vis-à-vis de la Chine analysée par : les experts du Conseil Atlantique (6) ; Lily McElwee et Ilaria Mazzocco (CSIS) (6.1).
Fabio Figiaconi (East Asia Forum) analyse l’intérêt croissant de l’Italie pour la région indo-pacifique et l’importance d’avoir une stratégie articulée pour la région (7).
Tim Willasey-Wilsey CMG (RUSI) explore la relation complexe entre Washington et New Delhi dans un cadre stratégique en mutation (8).
Paul Globe (The Jamestown Foundation) écrit sur le problème systémique et structurel des voies navigables vers la Russie (9).
Pavel Luzin (The Jamestown Foundation) souligne qu’avec la poursuite de la contre-offensive ukrainienne, un tournant critique se profile pour les forces armées russes. Une nouvelle dégradation organisationnelle et matérielle des forces armées russes pourrait permettre au Kremlin d’éviter la menace politique potentielle de certains généraux militaires, mais seulement s’il envisage sérieusement de mettre fin à la guerre avant qu’il ne soit trop tard (10).
David Hutt (East Asia Forum) évoque la probable passation de pouvoir au Cambodge entre le Premier ministre Hun Sen et son fils Hun Manet (11).
Seth Hays (East Asia Forum) souligne la nécessité d’un forum sur la gouvernance de l’IA au sein d’un cadre asiatique de gouvernance numérique (12).
William Ruto et Fatih Birol (ASPI The Strategist) réfléchissent à l’utilisation de l’énergie solaire, hydroélectrique, éolienne et géothermique en Afrique. L’exploitation responsable des ressources naturelles du continent sera essentielle à son développement (13).
Zainab Usman et Aline Abayo (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) soulignent que l’Afrique est le continent dont la population est la plus jeune et connaît la croissance la plus rapide au monde : aujourd’hui, l’âge moyen est d’environ 19 ans et, d’ici 2050, cette population devrait représenter 23 % de la main-d’œuvre mondiale. Il est donc important d’offrir une éducation de qualité et des opportunités à des millions de jeunes Africains (14).
Joe Lo (Lowy The Interpreter) aborde la question de la durabilité du transport maritime mondial et de l’augmentation des coûts de la transition vers la réduction des émissions (15).
(1.2) NATO Divided: Global Perspectives on the Vilnius Summit | Council of Councils (cfr.org)
(1.3) What Happened at NATO’s Vilnius Summit? (csis.org)
(2) NATO’s 2023 Summit: Modest Expectations, Modest Results (Part One) – Jamestown
(3) And it’s over? Outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(4) With re-election behind him, Erdogan is turning toward the West – Atlantic Council
(6) Is Germany shifting its approach on China? – Atlantic Council
(6.1) Germany’s China Strategy Marks a New Approach in EU-China Relations (csis.org)
(7) Southeast Asia could earn interest from Italy’s Indo-Pacific investment | East Asia Forum
(8) Washington’s Indian Delusion | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
(9) Growing Problems With Russia’s Waterways Restrict Moscow’s Ability to Achieve Its Goals – Jamestown
(10) The Further Degradation of the Russian Army – Jamestown
(11) Cambodia transits from ‘strongman’ Hun Sen to ‘strongson’ Hun Manet | East Asia Forum
(12) Asia’s middle powers must find their collective voice on AI go/vernance | East Asia Forum
(13) A new energy pact for Africa | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(15) The cost-benefit of turning “dirty” shipping clean | Lowy Institute
