LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
L’onnipotenza che uccide / The omnipotence that kills (Marco Emanuele)
Il ‘braccio di ferro’ tra il New York Times e ChatGPT (Marzia Giglioli)
Vocazione alla responsabilità / Vocation for responsibility (Marco Emanuele)
Noi e l’intelligenza artificiale. Serve una nuova narrazione (Marzia Giglioli)
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Asia
(Karl Dewey – IISS) Asia’s defence spending reached a record USD510 billion in 2023. Sustained Chinese military modernisation and North Korean belligerence have increased tensions in the region, while the prospect of a return of former United States president Donald Trump, with his isolationist tendencies, suggests the figure will only grow.
Asian defence spending ambitions outstrip growth (iiss.org)
China
(Kartik Bommakanti – Observer Research Foundation) China’s ‘three warfares’ strategy (TWS) is critical to its military strategy against India and beyond. The TWS will likely be effective in securing gains against states with which China has contested land frontiers and states in regions where it has no territorial disputes. For instance, Beijing is increasingly making territorial encroachments in areas such as the Arctic and Antarctica, where it is not a party to any dispute.
China – Red Sea
(Ahmed Aboudouh – Chatham House) A Reuters report on 26 January claimed that China recently attempted to nudge Iran into reining in Houthi attacks against civilian ships in the Red Sea. However, the report created confusion about precisely what Beijing’s demands were. The prevailing narrative has been that China asked Iran to refrain from impeding international shipping, and to abandon its strategy of linking such attacks to the war in Gaza. However, this is misleading.
European Union
1 – (Jan Dunin-Wasowicz, Gonzalo Saiz – RUSI) The EU needs a step change in its approach to sanctioning third-party actors that it reasonably suspects of facilitating the circumvention of Russia sanctions. A solution is at hand.
2 – (Fabian Hinz, Tom Waldwyn – IISS) Europe risks being left behind in the hot field of loitering munitions, a technology it pioneered and where it is now playing catch-up. Demand for these weapons has surged after they demonstrated their utility in fighting in Azerbaijan, the Red Sea and Ukraine, and they have become a major export item for countries such as Iran.
Europe comes full circle on loitering munitions (iiss.org)
France – Mali
(Tony Chafer, Eloïse Bertrand, Ed Stoddard – RUSI) The end of December 2023 saw the final withdrawal of UN forces from Mali after the military regime in Bamako expelled the UN contingent operating in the country. In many ways, the UN pullout represents the most recent domino to fall in the wider collapse of the French-led intervention in Mali that started 11 years earlier.
Haiti
(Sophie Rutenbar – Brookings) On February 7, Haiti is bracing itself for a political crisis and possibly re-intensified violence. The first few weeks of 2024 have seen a spike in protest activity, with marches, barricades, and burning tires paralyzing towns across Haiti. Further protests have been promised to demand the departure of acting Prime Minister Ariel Henry after February 7, a highly symbolic date specified in the Haitian Constitution for transfers of power.
A way forward for Haitian politics amid continued insecurity | Brookings
Koreas
(Sangsoo Lee – 38 North) The Korean Peninsula, a region long fraught with geopolitical tensions, is experiencing a significant escalation in military conflict, marked by a complex interplay of strategic maneuvers and technological advancements.
Latin America
(SIPRI) The Latin American Regional Working Group was initiated by SIPRI and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) Colombia office in 2022. The working group comprises 20 climate and environmental experts from 10 Latin American countries. This report presents the collective perspective of the working group on the pressing issues surrounding climate and environmental justice, as well as food security, that affect the region as a whole, but whose impact is most strongly felt at the local level.
Maldives
(JK Tripathi – Vivekananda International Foundation) The Maldives has been gathering news headlines for all the wrong reasons. From the “India Out” in the election manifesto of the Progressive Political Party (PPM) to unwarranted diatribes of junior ministers to the ugly brawl in the parliament of a peace living country, the Maldivian government is committing one after another mistake in a desperate move to save it.
Maldives: Paying for the Wrong Choices | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
NATO – Climate Change
(Richard Milburn – RUSI) An analysis of how NATO can act to reduce climate change, not just mitigate its impact.
Near East
(RUSI) Tobias Borck and Julie Norman look at how Israel’s war in Gaza is evolving and where the risks of wider regional escalation stand now.
Nepal – India
(Hari Bansh Jha – Vivekananda International Foundation) Recently, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar visited Kathmandu on January 4-5 and co-chaired the seventh meeting of the Nepal-India Joint Commission, the highest bilateral mechanism between the two countries.
A Quantum Leap in Nepal-India Relations | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
Russia
1 – (Aaron Arnold – RUSI) The ballistic missiles that Russia fires into Ukraine not only bring death and destruction, but also fundamentally delegitimise international sanctions.
2 – (Douglas Barrie, Giorgio Di Mizio – IISS) As Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine heads into its third year, shortcomings within the country’s Aerospace Forces (VKS) are becoming ever more apparent. The VKS has failed to gain air superiority against a numerically inferior opponent, has insufficient intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft, lacks adequate numbers of precision-guided weapons and has suffered meaningful losses of aircraft and attack helicopters. The bottom line is that the VKS has often been ineffective, not inactive.
Moscow’s Aerospace Forces: No air of superiority (iiss.org)
Senegal
(Michelle Gavin – Council on Foreign Relations) The weather in Dakar is forecast to be sunny and warm all week. But Senegal is on very thin ice. A country often celebrated for the vibrancy of its political discourse, the energetic political engagement of its civil society, and the liveliness of its democracy is now the site of internet and media outlet shutdowns, tear gassing of protestors, and what many are calling “an institutional coup.”
Democracy Deferred in Senegal | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
USA
(John C. Austin, Mark Muro – Brookings) The U.S. is beginning to roll out striking instances of place-based industrial policy—a good amount of it focused on federal investment in heartland geographies still making a spotty transition from their “old” industrial economy to a new tech-driven model.
CHIPS and Science Act programs are writing a new story about the Rust Belt | Brookings
USA – China
(Graham T. Allison, Josh M. Cartin, Elizabeth Economy, Susan A. Thornton, Ryan Hass, Patricia M. Kim, and Emilie Kimball – Brookings) Many U.S. and Chinese leaders have referred to the U.S.-China relationship as the most consequential bilateral relationship in the world. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, for instance, made such a case last November, the day after Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping’s summit in San Francisco. Is the Sino-American relationship the “most consequential” relationship in the 21st century for either country? How does this framing impact how the United States and China relate to each other, and to other countries, going forward?
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
