LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Artificial Intelligence
(Dian Tjondronegoro, Bob Trojan and Shawn Hunter – Asian Development Bank Institute) Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to profoundly remodel everything we recognize, from societal structures to industry paradigms, guaranteeing transformation across all sectors, from healthcare to finance. The key will be to harness this powerful new tool without exacerbating inequalities.
Australia
1 – (Malcolm Davis – ASPI The Strategist) The 2024 National Defence Strategy (NDS) reiterates the importance of a strategy of deterrence by denial suggested in the 2023 Defence Strategic Review. It also reiterates air, sea and land capability decisions already made to support a more hemispheric role for the ADF, in particular to counter the risk of coercion from afar in the next decade.
National Defence Strategy: preparing slowly to strike far | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
2 – (Marina Yue Zhang – Lowy The Interpreter) The “Future Made in Australia Act” set out by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signifies a shift from a neoliberal to a mission-driven approach, aiming to tackle grand challenges such as climate change, technological sovereignty, and economic sustainability. This shift reflects policymakers’ adaptability in transforming the country from a resource-export, commodity-based economy to one that is innovation-driven and focused on adding more value, amidst a rapidly changing technological and geopolitical landscape.
China
1 – (Kashif Anwar – Lowy The Interpreter) The futuristic notion of flying drones buzzing atop houses and city streets, making deliveries or even transporting passengers, might never quite eventuate. Yet governments and private companies are assessing the commercial opportunities of the airspace just above our heads to propel economic growth and development. China, in particular, sees a chance with this “low-altitude economy” to foster high-value jobs, bolster innovation in science and technology, and inject some needed momentum into its national economy.
China’s high ambition for the low-altitude economy | Lowy Institute
2 – (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) China makes extensive use of subsidies in order to take a leading role on the global markets in the green technology sectors of electric vehicles, wind turbines and railway rolling stock.
Foul Play? On the Scale and Scope of Industrial Subsidies in China | Kiel Institute (ifw-kiel.de)
China – Taiwan
(Shingo Ito – Japan Institute of International Affairs) In April 2023, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated a trade barrier investigation in response to Taiwan’s import restrictions on China. Based on the results, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council of China has been applying retaliatory measures against Taiwan as of January 1, 2024.
The Japan Institute of International Affairs (jiia.or.jp)
European Union
1 – (Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, Georg Zachmann – Bruegel) Enrico Letta’s much-anticipated report provides a comprehensive evaluation of the European Union’s single market and contains an important set of concrete policy proposals for its future development. Alongside Mario Draghi’s forthcoming report on EU competitiveness, Letta’s proposals have the potential to substantially impact the EU’s strategic agenda for 2024-29.
The Letta report: an assessment of the energy proposals (bruegel.org)
2 – (Rosa Balfour, Stefan Lehne – Carnegie Europe) Despite embracing democracy, radical-right parties pose a significant challenge to the EU’s fundamental values. European leaders and institutions must address this challenge to safeguard democracy in the EU and ensure a more effective foreign policy.
India
1 – (Soumya Bhowmick – Observer Research Foundation) India’s Northeast, with its rich cultural diversity and natural resources, stands as a promising frontier for targeted development. Despite its vast potential, the region trails behind the national average in several human development indices, contributing only 2.8 percent of India’s GDP. A strategic approach is imperative to catalyse holistic progress, focusing on bolstering human resources and fostering seamless integration with the Bay of Bengal economies. Collaborative endeavours with global partners in education, vocational training, healthcare, infrastructure, and digital advancements offer avenues for nurturing a skilled workforce, improving connectivity and Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), and fostering an entrepreneurial ecosystem. These efforts not only aspire to uplift the socio-economic landscape of the Northeast but also aim to amplify its significance within the broader Indo-Pacific narrative.
India’s Northeast: Partnerships for economic prosperity (orfonline.org)
2 – (Anil Trigunayat – Vivekananda International Foundation) India possibly can boast of having one of the largest (nearly 35 million) and most successful diaspora across the world from the blue collar to the whitest of the them all. They are mainly Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) and Persons of Indian origin (PIOs or OCIs) who have acquired the citizenship of other countries.
The Difficulty with Diaspora | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
Middle East and the Gulf
1 – (Khaled Abu Toameh – Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) The new Palestinian Authority government, headed by Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa, has appealed to some Arab countries, including Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Algeria, to support its effort to assume control of the Gaza Strip. Mustafa appealed during meetings and phone calls with leaders and senior officials of these countries after he took over from his predecessor, Mohammad Shtayyeh, earlier this month.
Is the Palestinian Authority Trying to Return to Gaza? (jcpa.org)
2 – (Brig. Gen. (res.) Dr. Meir Finkel – BESA Center) Preventive war/the preemptive strike, defined as the identification of a major threat developing among one’s enemies and the taking of action to remove that threat before it materializes, was once central to Israel’s security concept. Since the rise of Hamas to power in Gaza and the Second Lebanon War against Hezbollah, however, the IDF has abandoned this practice. Instead, strategies were developed to keep escalation below the threshold of war – the “Campaign Between the Wars” in the north and repeated limited operations in Gaza. Notwithstanding these efforts, both Hamas and Hezbollah subsequently evolved, over the course of almost two decades, into terrorist armies that are a significant threat to Israel. Two recent cases illustrate this trend: Israel’s response to the development of Hamas’s offensive capability, with an emphasis on tunnels, starting in 2015; and Hezbollah’s conversion of rockets into precision-guided rockets starting in 2018. In both cases the option of a preventive war was raised but rejected. In direct response to lessons learned from the Iron Swords War, I propose that the preventive war/preemptive strike be restored to Israel’s strategic toolbox. The external and internal legitimacy for doing so stems from the fact that Israel has returned to the era of “wars of no choice.”
Russia
(Andrey Pertsev – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Putin is more likely to promote people in their forties than older generations who have been in power for too long and can envisage life without him. But Russia doesn’t have enough young administrators ready to replace those in their sixties.
Turkey
(Cheuk Yui Kwong – ASPI The Strategist) Turkey’s newly strengthened relationship with Somalia raises the prospect of Ankara’s further involvement in Indian Ocean affairs, probably to the benefit of the West.
Turkey’s influence grows eastwards. That’s welcome | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
USA – China
(Manoj Harjani – Lowy The Interpreter) Recent reports of Chinese semiconductor chip manufacturers planning to produce 5-nanometre (nm) chips this year raise several uncomfortable questions for American efforts to restrict China’s capabilities in this area. Instead of delivering a fatal blow to China’s chip industry, have export controls made it more innovative?
Are US export controls making China’s chip industry more innovative? | Lowy Institute
USA – Ukraine
1 – (Atlantic Council) Help is (finally) on the way. The US House on Saturday approved $60.8 billion in aid for Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, after months of delays that have seen Russian gains on the ground. The bill, part of a four-piece national security package put forth by House Speaker Mike Johnson over the objections of his right flank, now goes to the Senate, which easily passed a similar version in February. What difference will this aid make for Ukraine’s fight? What do Ukraine and other European nations make of the delay—and the resolution?
The House passed Ukraine aid at last. Here’s what it means. – Atlantic Council
2 – (Daniel Fried – Atlantic Council) Finally, the blockage imposed by a minority of “America First” House members has been broken and, after a six-month delay, crucial US military aid may be on its way to Ukraine again. An alliance of what might be termed Reaganite Republicans and Trumanesque Democrats—a coalition that helped bring success in the Cold War and after—passed a $60.8 billion assistance package for Ukraine in 311-112 vote on Saturday. Rapid acceptance by the Senate and signature by US President Joe Biden look likely to follow in short order. The Biden administration appears poised to push ahead fast with sending new weapons to Ukraine.
Renewed US assistance opens a path to success, if Ukraine’s friends move fast – Atlantic Council
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
