LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Artificial Intelligence
(Callum Fraser – IISS) Once just hypothetical strategic and ethical questions surrounding the military application of artificial intelligence (AI) in war, they are now becoming grounded in reality, with fighting in Ukraine and Gaza emerging as one of the technology’s first trials-by-fire.
AI’s baptism by fire in Ukraine and Gaza offer wider lessons (iiss.org)
Australia
(Mick Ryan – Lowy The Interpreter) The Australian Defence Minister launched a new National Defence Strategy last week. It is accompanied by a revised Defence Integrated Investment Program (at the same link) describing important people, equipment, and weapons priorities.
As warfare changes, so does Australian strategy | Lowy Institute
Egypt
(Noah Berman – Council on Foreign Relations) International lenders have pumped tens of billions of dollars into Egypt’s faltering economy amid the war in the Gaza Strip, but experts say the country’s economic crisis is not yet resolved.
Can Egypt’s Economic Overhaul Stave Off Crisis? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
European Union
1 – (Clemens Fuest, Daniel Gros, Philipp-Leo Mengel, Giorgio Presidente, Jean Tirole – VOXEU) Europe lags behind in innovation. This column describes how its industry seems stuck in a middle-technology trap in which it does not pay to leave the beaten path. The authors argue that EU innovation policy should support disruptive innovation to break this path dependency, but this needs profound reforms, both in terms of its structure and financing.
Reforming innovation policy to help the EU escape the middle-technology trap | CEPR
2 – (ENISA) On 17 April, the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA),the European Commission (DG CNECT) and the Belgian presidency of the Council of the European Union organised the 2nd EU Cybersecurity Policy Conference.
Shaping Cybersecurity Policy towards a trusted and secure Europe — ENISA (europa.eu)
Finland – NATO – Russia
(John C.K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Finland’s accession to NATO one year ago marked a significant fracture in Russian-Finnish relations, which have declined precipitously as Finland pledges consistent support to Ukraine. Helsinki and Kyiv signed a recent defense agreement that includes long-term military and financial assistance to build on the over 20 aid packages Finland has already provided Ukraine. NATO’s expansion further into the Nordic-Baltic region presents substantial strategic costs for Russia that Moscow will have to grapple with long after Putin.
Finland Joining NATO Multiplies Russia’s Baltic Problems – Jamestown
Global Order
(Jon B. Alterman, Lily McElwee – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Amid shifting global power balances, renewed international contestation, and growing transnational challenges, understanding how the world order is changing has never been more critical.
Pursuing Global Order in the Twenty-First Century (csis.org)
India
1 – (Tanya Aggarwal – Observer Research Foundation) The successful implementation of the PLI scheme will be crucial in realising India’s vision of becoming a leading manufacturing hub on the world stage
Transforming manufacturing dynamics: A look into India’s PLI scheme (orfonline.org)
2 – (Satyam Singh – Observer Research Foundation) During the Raisina Dialogue 2024, The External Affairs Minister (EAM) Dr S. Jaishankar reiterated India’s perceptions of the current international system. He asserted that the post-1945 international order, while not broken, is certainly less effective and needs to be changed. However, changing the world order is often seen as revisionism—a taboo in the International Relations (IR) lexicon. It is often equated to the destruction of the existing international order, overshadowing the fact that revisionism can be constructive, and can usher in a positive change. In this context, this article focuses on how India, under the Modi government, is constructively changing the international order by making it more representative, legitimate, and solution-oriented.
India’s constructive revisionism (orfonline.org)
India – Bangladesh
(Harsh V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) Geographical contiguity needs to be accompanied with complementarities in governance for regional development. In South Asia, this has been showcased by India and Bangladesh, with the heads of government of both countries, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina respectively, naming their partnership as “a model for bilateral relations for the entire region.”
The Modi-Hasina legacy (orfonline.org)
Japan – USA
(Jeffrey W. Hornung – RAND Corporation) Something quite remarkable happened during Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit to Washington last week. It was not the wide-ranging bilateral agreements, though there was plenty to applaud for an alliance that now appears to be truly global in nature. Nor was it the fact that Kishida gave an address to a joint session of Congress. It was not even the trilateral summit that included Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., which highlighted the alignment among American allies against Chinese aggression.
Japan’s Remarkable Call for American Leadership | RAND
Kyrgyzstan – Russia
(Joseph Webster – Lowy The Interpreter) Kyrgyzstan’s trade figures defy economic logic, suggesting that a vast amount of its imports are bound for a third country – namely, Russia. Kyrgyzstan’s trans-shipment to Russia of dual-use goods, including ball bearings, vehicle spare parts, and other items, have had direct military implications for the invasion of Ukraine.
The Kyrgyzstan route facilitating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine | Lowy Institute
Populism
(Vincenzo Galasso, Massimo Morelli, Tommaso Nannicini – VOXEU) The past few decades have seen a remarkable surge in populism across Western democracies. This column evaluates how mainstream parties might counter populism by estimating the short- and long-term effects of an anti-populist campaign in Italy. The findings suggest that while countering populism using its own tactics can yield immediate benefits to mainstream politicians, such tactics might backfire in the long run, ultimately increasing voter disaffection in general.
The populist dynamic: Experimental evidence on the effects of countering populism | CEPR
Red Sea
(Prithvi Gupta – Observer Research Foundation) The continuous maritime rerouting in the aftermath of the Red Sea crisis is emerging as an issue for major trading nations due to the rising shipping costs and higher prices of commodities
Red Sea blues: Deliberating maritime bottlenecks (orfonline.org)
Russia
1 – (Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Strengthened Western resolve to roll back Moscow’s invasion is beginning to coincide more strongly with the interests of the “world majority” in seeking renewed global stability. The approval of the US aid package to Ukraine could alter the course of war, and a Ukrainian victory would signify a collective win for the international community. The Kremlin’s perpetuation of the “long war” against Ukraine has intensified its global isolation and hurt its hunt for partners in the Global South.
Russia’s Growing Isolation Changes Balance of War – Jamestown
2 – (Alexander Gabuev, Mark Galeotti, Vera Mironova – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Responsibility for the March 22 terrorist attack at the Crocus City concert hall has been claimed by the Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), and most of the suspects are migrants from Tajikistan. Yet Russian authorities remain steadfast in their insistence that Ukraine and “Western forces” orchestrated the indiscriminate murder of over 140 people. What does this fixation on Ukraine signify for Russia’s regime stability? Is there genuine conviction within Putin’s inner circle that Ukraine masterminded the attack? And what real threats does Russia face from radicalization in Central Asia?
Russia – Karabakh
(Vasif Huseynov – The Jamestown Foundation) On April 16, Russia began withdrawing its peacekeeping troops from Karabakh—18 months before their deployment officially ends. This marks one of the first instances that Russian armed units have left the territory of a post-Soviet state voluntarily and earlier than officially planned. The Kremlin’s withdrawal from its peacekeeping mission highlights the conclusion to the Karabakh conflict and the cessation of the “Karabakh card” as leverage for Moscow’s dealings with Baku.
Russia’s Peacekeeping Contingent Leaves Karabakh – Jamestown
Ukraine
1 – (Council on Foreign Relations) Panelists discuss global financial efforts to support the reconstruction of Ukraine and help rebuild the country’s infrastructure and economy following Russia’s military aggression.
Blueprints for Renewal: Reconstructing Ukraine | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
2 – (Elena Carletti, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Harold James, Jan-Pieter Krahnen, Vladyslav Rashkovan, Alexander Rodnyansky, Ilona Sologoub – VOXEU) What financial system can facilitate Ukraine’s post-war recovery and development? A new report provides a clear answer: an effective, competitive and widely trusted financial system that lives up to recognised standards of integrity, is compliant with the EU accession process, and assumes a recognised role in Europe’s banking and capital market unions. The team of authors, which combines leading Ukrainian economists with experts from CEPR’s Research Policy Network on European financial architecture, stress that a well-designed financial sector – the whole of banks, capital markets, insurance, mortgages, financial regulation and supervision – can play a catalytic role in Ukraine’s reconstruction. Preparing for EU accession can help to steer that process and build confidence among investors and the public, at home and in the international community.
Ukraine’s reconstruction: Policy options for building an effective financial architecture | CEPR
USA
1 – (Brookings) The U.S. House of Representatives passed four bi-partisan bills in a $95 billion foreign aid package with monies going to aid Ukraine, to the Indo-Pacific region to counter China, to offensive and defensive weapons to Israel, and to humanitarian aid for Gaza and elsewhere. Molly Reynolds, senior fellow in Governance Studies at Brookings, joins The Current to talk about how these bills were passed in a deeply divided House of Representatives and the potential risk to Rep. Mike Johnson’s speakership.
How a divided House passed critical foreign aid bills | Brookings
2 – (Manann Donoghoe – Brookings) When researchers, policymakers, and activists talk about climate, they are increasingly using terms such as “justice” and “equity.” These terms are now pervasive enough to appear in documents from groups as diverse as Extinction Rebellion, the United Nations, and Deloitte. But recent polling has found that relatively few Americans know what “climate justice” actually is.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
