From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
ASEAN – RCEP
(Julia Tijaja, Iman Pambagyo – East Asia Forum) Global security and economics are increasingly intertwined, leading to more insular actions and complicating efforts to address challenges like climate change and digital technology advancement. ASEAN’s reliance on global value chains means it’s more exposed to growing security risks and securitisation, prompting the need for a more strategic, comprehensive response. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest trade bloc, has been an important part of these efforts. Having successfully led RCEP negotiations to conclusion, ASEAN should now prove its leadership in ensuring RCEP’s effective implementation. – ASEAN should take the RCEP reins to strengthen economic and political security | East Asia Forum
Asia
(Mohd Faiz Abdullah – East Asia Forum) Asia’s rapid rise as a global economic powerhouse has been significantly driven by free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the RCEP and CPTPP. These FTAs have facilitated market access, investment and regional integration. ASEAN’s central role in this transformation highlights its commitment to fostering economic collaboration and maintaining stability. But the region faces challenges from rising protectionism and potential economic decoupling, particularly between major economies like the United States and China. To navigate these risks, ASEAN must continue to promote regional integration, engage in strategic dialogues and champion inclusive growth, ensuring that Asia remains resilient and at the forefront of the global economy. – Free trade agreements key to Asia’s prosperity | East Asia Forum
Australia
(Syed Munir Khasru – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Australia’s climate policy sits at a critical crossroads, with ambitious goals tempered by ongoing reliance on fossil fuels. As COP29 approaches, Australia’s challenge is to reconcile its energy strategies with climate leadership aspirations, highlighting the delicate balance between economic interests and environmental commitments. COP29 and Australia: Has the Labor Government Been Walking the Talk on Climate Action? – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
China
(Shuang Liu, Lihuan Zhou, Chris Qihan Zou, Yan Wang, Ziyi Ma – World Resources Institute) The climate crisis is escalating at an alarming rate, causing devastation around the world — especially in countries that contribute little to the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Coping with climate impacts and investing in the transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient future present special challenges for developing countries. Global climate goals can’t be reached unless developing countries are part of the effort, too — but given their reduced responsibility and resources, they need and deserve help from the global community. This is especially true for the poorest and most vulnerable countries. Very soon, world leaders will have a chance to show their resolve to meet this need. The main agenda item for COP29 is adopting a new global climate finance target. This new collective quantified goal, or NCQG, would replace the goal set in 2009 for developed countries to mobilize $100 billion a year, from 2020 to 2025, for climate action in developing countries. A new target, with increased financial support for developing countries, should enable their ambitious investment in climate mitigation and adaptation. The NCQG has its share of complications, however. One of the most hotly contested topics is the role that emerging economies like China should play. China remains a developing country according to UN classifications, but it has grown impressively in recent years — and its emissions have risen along with it. Many developed countries argue that such rapidly growing economies should be required to contribute to the NCQG. Developing countries have had no obligation to contribute to the $100 billion goal, but many have been doing so voluntarily — including China, a fact that has often been overlooked. – China Is Providing Billions in Climate Finance to Developing Countries | World Resources Institute
China – Japan (Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands dispute)
(RSIS) While recent diplomatic engagements show signs of improvement in China-Japan relations, the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands dispute remains a major obstacle, marked by maritime conflicts and increased security competition between the two countries. Wang Yuchen and Li Mingjiang suggest that implementing cooperative crisis management mechanisms, such as those seen in the recent India-China disengagement arrangement, could help reduce tensions and foster stability. – IP24092 | China-Japan Thaw: Can the Two Countries Better Manage the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands Dispute? – RSIS
Gender Gap (STEM)
(World Bank blogs) Despite continuous efforts to promote gender equality, women’s representation in STEM jobs remains low worldwide at only 29% (Gender Gap Report 2023). The gender gap in high-paying STEM careers contributes to the overall gender wage gap (Blau & Kahn 2017). Educational institutions often implement affirmative action (AA) to address these disparities and to increase minority representation in both education and the labor force. While such policies can improve diversity and outcomes of the beneficiaries (Bagde et al 2016; Khanna 2020), they may also reinforce negative stereotypes (Coate & Loury 1993). Specifically, gender-based AA policies that lower admission standards at top STEM colleges to boost female representation may shift firms’ perceptions of women’s average ability, potentially increasing statistical discrimination by gender and widening labor market gender gaps. – Affirmative action for women in STEM: Closing gaps or creating new ones? Guest post by Ritika Gupta
Germany
(Sudha David-Wilp – German Marshall Fund of the United States) After decades of apparent stability, Berlin has succumbed to political fragmentation and an adverse economic environment, and is now forced to contend with its post-Angela Merkel future. The so-called traffic-light coalition, consisting of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) had been plagued with infighting over government spending on climate initiatives, social welfare, and defense while debating whether to pause its debt brake. This provision, which limits the federal government to new debt at 0.35% of nominal gross domestic product per year, is embedded in the German constitution. – Only A Transitional Government | German Marshall Fund of the United States
India – IMEC
(Soumya Bhowmick – East Asia Forum) In 2023, India, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy and the European Union agreed to establish the India–Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC) to enhance global trade and counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The IMEC aims to connect a combined GDP of US$47 trillion with a comprehensive infrastructure network and focuses on high-efficiency trade routes, renewable energy, digital infrastructure and improved international communication networks. But to succeed, participating countries must align their implementation strategy to overcome geopolitical and logistical challenges. – India charts its IMEC path to global trade influence | East Asia Forum
Indonesia
(Pradana Boy Zulian, Nur Syafiqah Mohd Taufek – ISEAS) As one of Indonesia’s oldest and biggest Muslim organisations, Muhammadiyah’s position on issues remains influential in policymaking. Its members are still co-opted by the ruling administration at the national and local levels, and its leaders often make public pronouncements to lobby for certain policies. In the 1980s, Muhammadiyah adopted moral or “high” politics to avoid being misperceived as a political organisation. In 1986, Amien Rais, then a key activist who later became Muhammadiyah chairman in 1995, introduced the concept of moral politics, which aims to keep the organisation politically neutral and nonpartisan while allowing it to voice out on issues based on the religious principle of amar ma’ruf wan nahi munkar (advocate the good, prevent harm). Despite embracing a concept meant to be politically neutral, Muhammadiyah is not anti-politics. It encourages its members to build their political competence and participate in “low” politics by running as election candidates. It is considered vital for the organisation to gain support and resources for its missions through political channels. This dualism has proven challenging to implement and has led to confusion among Muhammadiyah members. It has also led to internal division caused by members’ rigid and intolerant attitudes in their political preferences. In fact, Muhammadiyah members’ political participation is relatively low compared to their rivals, affecting their lobbying capabilities. – 2024/91 “Muhammadiyah’s Moral Politics and the Cost of Non-partisanship” by Pradana Boy Zulian and Nur Syafiqah Mohd Taufek – ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute
(Yanuar Nugroho, Made Supriatma – FULCRUM) It appears that Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s hard-fought presidential victory has not translated into a convincing governance strategy to achieve his political promises, despite his administration’s Asta Cita (Eight Ideals). The Asta Cita comprises eight visions, 17 priorities, and eight “quick wins” reflecting a desire for national sovereignty and economic self-sufficiency. Compared to his predecessor Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) Nawa Cita (Nine Ideals), which focused on availing the state (menghadirkan negara) to the people through social protection schemes, and increased connectivity and infrastructural development, Asta Cita reflects a strong state that protects national dignity and sovereignty in different policy sectors. With his team barely a month into office, some have criticised Prabowo as failing to ensure he has a uniformly professional cabinet to realise these ambitions. – Prabowo Subianto’s Problematic Start: A Missed Opportunity? | FULCRUM
Iran
(Javad Heiran-Nia – Stimson Center) As tensions between Israel and Iran continue to rise in the aftermath of missile strikes and counterstrikes, current and former Iranian officials are openly debating whether the acquisition of nuclear weapons would help or hurt Iran’s national security. – Iranians Debate Whether It’s Time To Develop Nuclear Weapons • Stimson Center
IS/Daesh
(Gina Vale – International Centre for Counter-Terrorism) Over 10 years has passed since the establishment of the so-called ‘caliphate’ by the Islamic State (IS/Daesh) group in Iraq and Syria. At its peak, IS governed a population of over 11 million, seizing unilateral control over checkpoints and transport networks, law enforcement and judicial bodies, public services and taxation, and the private lives, customs, and institutions of its governed population. Core to IS’s governance was the creation of a new society, the vision of which was underpinned by binarised and gender-essentialised roles for men and women. In contrast to jihadist masculinity performed through violence, dominance, and military prowess, the group’s vision of womanhood centred on purdah, piety, and non-violent jihad. These ideals determined who should have access to power and resources within the ‘caliphate’. IS’s feminine archetype served to set and legitimate different roles and regulations for women, by men. However, not all women within IS territory did, could, or aspired to embody this ideal. While perhaps a force for internal cohesion for affiliated female supporters, for ‘Other’ women, unfulfillment or non-compliance became grounds for violent discrimination. – Divide and Conquer: The Strategy and Enduring Legacy of Islamic State’s Governance of Civilian Women | International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – ICCT
Israel – Jordan
(Nimrod Goren – Middle East Institute) 30 years have passed since Israel and Jordan signed a peace treaty on Oct. 26, 1994. But instead of celebrations — and apart from a few conferences held by Israeli research centers — this anniversary was largely marked by disappointment and even despair. Relations, it is claimed, are at an all-time low, although this has been said before, and the future prospects seem bleak, as the war in Gaza continues and peace between Israelis and Palestinians seems more distant than ever. However, Israel-Jordan relations have proven resilient, even in the face of the current crisis, and the two countries continue to advance vital shared interests, albeit in a low-profile and more limited way. The strategic importance of Israel-Jordan ties, for both countries and the region as a whole, combined with past successes in reaching bilateral breakthroughs and rapprochement, give hope that relations can improve once more. The US, which played a key role in the development of Israel-Jordan relations, should prioritize them again and do what it can to help mend ties. – Strained Israel-Jordan ties are further tested by Gaza, but a turnaround is possible | Middle East Institute
Japan
(Yasuo Takao – East Asia Forum) Japan’s efforts to reform labour immigration, including the new Training and Employment System (TES), reveal ongoing challenges in providing long-term residency for foreign workers. While the TES offers some flexibility in employment, many foreign residents still face systemic barriers and discrimination. Municipalities like Kawasaki and Hamamatsu are actively implementing policies to enhance integration and representation, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive national immigration strategy to support the growing foreign population. – Local approaches to Japan’s immigration challenges | East Asia Forum
Mekong River
(Pham Vu Thieu Quang – ISEAS) Cambodia’s Funan Techo Canal, which aims to connect Phnom Penh to the Gulf of Thailand, has sparked regional concerns, particularly from Vietnam, due to potential environmental impacts and geopolitical implications. The Mekong River Commission (MRC) faces challenges in regulating the canal due to vague definitions in the 1995 Mekong Agreement, particularly the distinction between tributary and mainstream projects. Proposed reforms to the MRC include clearer definitions of key terms, stronger enforcement mechanisms, cooperation with the Greater Mekong Subregion and ASEAN, as well as alignment with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. However, implementing reforms to the MRC will be challenging, as member states may resist increased oversight and restrictions on development projects. Reopening the 1995 Agreement for debate could also destabilise the existing consensus and lead to member withdrawals. Cambodia’s distrust of the MRC may have led the country to prioritise unilateral development projects like the Funan Techo Canal, even at the risk of straining regional relations and cooperation. – 2021/92 “Weaknesses in Mekong River Governance: The Case of the Funan Techo Canal” by Pham Vu Thieu Quang – ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute
Norway
(Sigmund Brandvold – The Jamestown Foundation) Following the invasion of Ukraine, Norway faces heightened security risks from Russia, including espionage attempts and incidents involving drones near critical infrastructure. In the intelligence’s assessment, Norway’s oil and gas facilities, essential to the European energy supply, are particularly vulnerable targets, necessitating strengthened security measures and cooperation with allied nations. The recent threats have exposed weaknesses in Norway’s defense infrastructure, highlighting the urgent need for increased military spending and modern surveillance technologies. – Norwegian Intelligence Assessment on Russian Interference – Jamestown
Russia
(Jack A. Jarmon – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Russia has a chip problem. As in Soviet times, national science and technology development is faltering under the heavy hand of statel; the implications for the national economy are dire. – In Russia, the Chips are Down – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates
(Noam Raydan – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) On October 29, during Saudi Arabia’s annual Future Investment Initiative conference, Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman highlighted the kingdom’s plans for adopting low-carbon sources and renewables while maintaining “preeminence” in the oil sector. Dubbed “Davos in the Desert,” the high-profile conference is one of several events that show influential regional states increasingly prioritizing economic growth and energy diversification—a long process that requires geopolitical stability for maximal effectiveness. The Persian Gulf region is among the world’s most water-stressed and arid areas, making it highly vulnerable to climate change. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other states have been investing in advanced technologies to gradually reduce emissions and meet future energy demand with different sources. Accordingly, the process of pursuing energy transition in order to tackle climate change cannot be ignored when formulating policy toward the Middle East, even at times of war. In past years, Washington invested heavily in this transition, and the next administration under Donald Trump will have further opportunities to deepen energy partnerships in the Middle East. In doing so, U.S. officials should remain mindful that key Gulf oil producers see fossil fuels as playing an important role in their energy transition plans, which are currently focused on reducing emissions rather than cutting oil and gas production. – Gulf Energy Transition: Assessing Saudi and Emirati Goals | The Washington Institute
SDGs (Health)
(Christoph Kurowski, Martin Schmidt, David B. Evans – World Bank blogs) Countries are entering a critical phase in achieving the health Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with Universal Health Coverage (UHC) at the core of these efforts. With only six years remaining to meet these goals, global progress toward UHC has been slow, and the COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant setbacks. At this pivotal juncture, we introduce two new reports that provide a comprehensive view of trends and prospects of government investments in health for almost the entire SDG period (2015-2029). The first examines government health spending trends in 63 low- and lower-middle-income countries from 2015 to 2023, while the second offers an outlook on government health expenditure for 170 countries through 2029. In contrast to expenditure figures, spending estimates exclude obligatory contributions to social health insurance, which, however, generally constitute only a minor source of public funding for health in low-income countries (LICs) and lower middle-income countries (LMICs). – Investing in health: Time for a rethink
Sudan
(Crisis Group) In this episode of The Horn, guest host Elissa Jobson is joined by BBC journalist Mohanad Hashim, to talk about his recent trip to Omdurman and other war-torn cities in Sudan, and the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in the country as the war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces rages on. They discuss life in the country’s urban areas amid daily bombardments, food shortages, and atrocities reportedly committed by both warring parties. They unpack why international media coverage of the war in Sudan has been limited despite the conflict’s devastating humanitarian toll. They talk about how people living in Sudan perceive the warring parties and their hopes for the country’s political future. They also examine the lacklustre international response to the conflict, the involvement of external actors in the war and how that affects prospects for peace. – Inside Sudan’s Catastrophic Civil War | Crisis Group
Taiwan
(Richard C. Bush – Brookings) Discussion of tensions in the Taiwan Strait often treats Taiwan as an object that is acted upon by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). And that is certainly happening. China has built up significant war-fighting capabilities and poses a clear—but not present—military danger to the island. – How Taiwan can—and often does—help itself
Ukraine
(Taras Kuzio – The Jamestown Foundation) Since the beginning of Russia’s war in 2022, Ukraine has been rapidly transitioning from importing arms to producing them domestically and is working toward becoming a significant player in the global arms market. Ukraine is expanding its production capacity for critical technologies such as drones, missiles, and robotic warfare systems, with aspirations to leverage its defense industry as a strategic advantage in both military and economic terms. The defense sector has become a testing ground for Western military technologies, with partnerships involving the United States, European Union, and private defense firms in innovation and arms production on Ukrainian soil. – Ukraine Aspires to Become Arsenal to the West – Jamestown
USA
(Adam Garfinkle – RSIS) Donald Trump’s unexpected electoral victory and the gains by the Republican Party at all levels of American politics have shocked elites both domestic and international. As those with varying interests and equities try to anticipate what the election outcome means for them, one question stands out above all others: What kind of American demos would choose a man to be President of the world’s most powerful democracy who has shown consistent disrespect for both its democratic rules and its classical liberal principles? – The US Election: Expectations vs. Outcomes – RSIS
(James M. Lindsay – Council on Foreign Relations) Donald Trump won a clear victory in the 2024 presidential election. He now has ten weeks to put together his administration. The presidential transition process in the United States stands almost alone among democracies. Most democratic governments move quickly to install new leaders once they are elected. In the United Kingdom, for example, the new prime minister takes office the morning after the election. The United States waits two-and-a-half months. – Transition 2025: Donald Trump Won the Presidency. Now He Needs to Staff His Administration | Council on Foreign Relations
USA – European Union
(Max Bergmann – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The election of Donald Trump for a second term will likely initiate a transformation in transatlantic relations. The administration’s agenda will mark a massive shift in U.S. post–Cold War policy toward Europe. Instead of seeking to preserve and maintain the United States’ preeminent role in Europe, a Trump administration is likely to pull back and largely leave Europe to Europeans. – The United States Now Wants European Strategic Autonomy
USA – Middle East
(The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Watch a panel of outstanding journalists from across the Middle East share regional perspectives on the second Trump administration’s approach to critical issues of war and peace. – U.S. Election 2024: Views from the Middle East | The Washington Institute
World Bank
(Elliot Dolan-Evans – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The World Bank has increasingly involved itself in war and peace. However, how appropriate and effective is this engagement if it selectively ignores the politics of conflict? – The World Bank at War – Whither the World Bank? – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
