From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Catholic Church; Iraq; Poland-Russia; Russia; Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond); US; US-Gulf States-Middle East
Catholic Church
(Atlantic Council) American Cardinal Robert Prevost has been elected as the 267th Pope and leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics. His selection came from the largest and most diverse conclave in the Church’s history, heavily shaped by his predecessor, who appointed 80 percent of the 2025 cardinal electors. While many expected a pontiff from Asia or Africa to follow Pope Francis (the first non-European pope in over a millennium) the choice once again defied expectations. While the direction Pope Leo XIV will take the Church is unclear at this early stage, he’s unlikely to reverse Pope Francis’s push to elevate voices from the Global South. – Pope Leo XIV’s electors represented Catholics’ changing economic distribution – Atlantic Council
Iraq
(Ali Al-Mawlawi – Stimson Center) Fears of regional violence spilling into Iraq – including a possible U.S. and Israeli war against Iran – have reignited debate over the future of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) nearly 11 years after these armed groups coalesced to help stop an invasion by ISIS. Against the backdrop of tenuous negotiations between the United States and Iran over the latter’s advancing nuclear program, Iraq’s political leaders face critical decisions. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has warned that failure by Washington and Tehran to reach an agreement could lead to “catastrophic consequences” for the Middle East. To mitigate the risk of Iraq becoming embroiled in a regional conflict, the PMF must be reformed so that these forces do not become a justification for undermining the country’s hard-fought stability. – Reforming Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces: From Liability to National Asset • Stimson Center
(Munqith Dagher, Karl Kaltenthaler – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Since the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime, the Iraqi government has had a fraught relationship with many of its citizens, with distrust in governmental performance or the institution itself spilling over into both protest and violence. As Iraq heads into its next elections cycle, conflicting attitudes are emerging in Iraqi public opinion—overall, Iraqis are increasingly positive about the national government and satisfied with its performance. Yet these same opinion polls show a potentially worrying trend: approximately half of Iraqis identify with their subnational identities, particularly their ethnicity or sect of Islam, over their identity as an Iraqi national. In past iterations of this trend question, a shift towards identification with sectarian identities has correlated with unrest or conflict, and so any signs of discontent should be closely monitored in the lead-up to elections. – Iraqis Are Increasingly Positive on Governance, but Waning National Identity a Warning Sign | The Washington Institute
Poland – Russia
(Anjou Kang-Stryker, Janusz Bugajski – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s shadow war against Poland combines low-level sabotage, insider espionage, informational warfare, and cyber‑attacks. Between 2010 and 2025, Polish authorities closed 30 subterfuge cases, leading to the arrests of 61 individuals—19 cases and 49 arrests since 2021—accounting for roughly 35 percent of Europe’s Russian-linked espionage and sabotage arrests. Recruits for these operations have shifted from ethnic Poles to predominantly Russian, Belarusian, and Ukrainian nationals. Their missions aim to reduce support for Ukraine, disrupt decision-making, erode social trust, and stoke extreme and disruptive politics. Countering the threat will require holistic countermeasures spanning media literacy, institutional hardening, and increased NATO intelligence cooperation. – Poland on the Frontlines Against Russia’s Shadow War – Jamestown
Russia
(The Jamestown Foundation) One of the weakest points in the survivability of President Vladimir Putin’s regime is the Russian economy. On April 24, Putin assured Russian business leaders that the country’s economic challenges are part of a planned “soft-landing” to curb inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Russia has skyrocketed, up to 9.65 percent year on year in March. Putin admits that inflation, now at over 10 percent, is too high. This comes as Russia’s 1.9 percent annual GDP growth for January to February of this year is down from 4.3 percent last year. Moreover, non-seasonally adjusted GDP may have declined for the first time since the second quarter of 2022, after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. – Strategic Snapshot: Russia’s Fracturing Economy – Jamestown
(Soufan Center) Alleged former members of the white supremacist, neo-Nazi terrorist organization the Base have recently claimed that its leader and founder, Rinaldo Nazzaro, is an alleged Russian intelligence asset. The Base has recently called for targeted assassinations and attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, with cash incentives for volunteer operatives; it is the first time the group has openly aligned itself with Russia’s broader geopolitical goals. Although Nazzaro has previously denied having any contact with Russian security services, former members have suspected him of having Russian financial backing, and the leader has recently relied heavily upon Russian digital infrastructure for recruitment, propaganda, and incitement. Russia has long been known to use neo-Nazi groups in kinetic and hybrid warfare, including in Ukraine and Syria, where neo-Nazi groups have fought alongside Russian forces. – Russia’s Links to Neo-Nazi Terrorist Groups Demonstrates its Hybrid Warfare Toolkit – The Soufan Center
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Center for Strategic & International Studies) The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was the most violent seizure of sovereign European territory since World War II. In the spring of 2025, CSIS military fellows worked with top resident defense experts to produce nonpolitical, actionable takeaways from the Russia-Ukraine War. Ukrainians, academics, industry leaders, and military professionals who have experienced and studied the war were brought together for this purpose. Insights from this regional war have critical global relevance, as they will likely inform large-scale combat operations between great powers in the future. – Insights for Future Conflicts from the Russia-Ukraine War
US
(Nellie Liang – Brookings) Stablecoins continue to grow, and use cases are increasing. The vast majority are tied to the U.S. dollar, but the U.S. lacks a strong, consistent, and coherent regulatory framework. I describe below some essential features of a regulatory framework for the U.S. that would both support financial innovation and reduce serious risks, many of which were highlighted in a report on stablecoins in 2021 by the President’s Working Group. Current financial regulations, mainly a diverse set of state money transmitter licensing requirements, are inadequate for significant stablecoins that operate across state and national borders, raise new and unique illicit finance risks, and threaten monetary and financial stability. – Essential features for a safe and trusted payment stablecoin
(Robert Greenstein, Adrianna Pita – Brookings) Safety net programs lift 45% of people who would be below the poverty line out of poverty. Substantial cuts to Medicaid would result in millions without health insurance. Programs like Medicaid and SNAP don’t only serve those below the poverty line, but millions more paycheck-to-paycheck, near-poor families. Studies show that adding work requirements to Medicaid results in virtually no increase in employment, but huge decreases in participation by otherwise eligible people. – What Medicaid and other safety net cuts could mean for US poverty
US – Gulf States – Middle East
(Elizabeth Dent, Simon Henderson – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) “Business, not policy” appears to be President Trump’s agenda for the first foreign tour of his second term. Yet the Gulf trip comes at a critical time for his administration, with Arab leaders questioning Washington’s regional role, global markets grappling with his tariff announcements, Israel accelerating its offensive in Gaza, and concerns rising over whether U.S. officials can meaningfully set back Iran’s nuclear program or deter its militia partners in Yemen and elsewhere. The trip is set to begin May 13 in Saudi Arabia, where the president will attend a meeting of the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum. The next day, he will join a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in Riyadh before traveling to Qatar. The final day of the tour will be spent in the United Arab Emirates, though additional stops could conceivably be announced in the coming days. – President Trump’s High-Stakes Gulf Trip Requires More Than Good Business | The Washington Institute
(Middle East Institute) President Donald Trump is heading to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE on his first foreign trip of his second term, with major investment deals, defense cooperation, and tech diplomacy on the agenda. What are the Gulf states hoping to gain, and what does the trip signal about US policy in the region? Alistair Taylor speaks with Dr. Ibrahim al-Assil, Senior Fellow at MEI, about the goals of the visit, the geopolitical and economic dynamics at play, and how regional powers are navigating a complex landscape shaped by Iran, China, AI ambitions, and the crisis in Gaza. – Trump’s Gulf Visit: Strategic Stakes and Symbolic Optics | Middle East Institute
(Steven A. Cook – Council on Foreign Relations) President Donald Trump is again kicking off a presidential term by traveling to friendly Gulf states to transact business, but could find his trip overshadowed by Mideast tensions. – Trump’s Persian Gulf Visit: Regional Conflict Clouds a Business Agenda | Council on Foreign Relations
