From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Africa
(Thabelo Muleya – SAIIA) Central banks, Afreximbank and the AfCFTA Secretariat should foster transparent collaboration and advocacy to increase PAPSS adoption. AU member states and RECs should accelerate initiatives to harmonise regulations across African countries to facilitate smoother cross-border transactions. AU member states in collaboration with the private sector must invest in digital infrastructure to ensure broader access to PAPSS, particularly in underserved areas. AU member states and RECs must address currency conversion challenges by promoting monetary convergence and transparent exchange rate mechanisms. Robust cybersecurity and risk management practices should be implemented to secure PAPSS transactions. – PAPSS – What Is It Good For? Probably Plenty – SAIIA
Australia – Indonesia
(Elena Williams – East Asia Forum) In 2014, the New Colombo Plan was envisaged as a way for Australians to become ‘ambassadors’ to the Indo-Pacific and to promote the Indo-Pacific at home. While this personal ‘ambassadorship’ applies to some NCP students and hosts in Indonesia, for many more, their relationships are based off ‘small’ everyday interactions. Be it sharing food, participating in cultural exchange or providing a safe space on LGBTQI+ issues, these ‘small acts’ among Indonesians and Australians are essential to the New Colombo Plan’s mission — in their own way, they help form deeper linkages between Australia and the Indo-Pacific. – Students deepen Australia–Indonesia ties in subtle but significant ways | East Asia Forum
Azerbaijan
(Jody LaPorte – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Climate change could present an opportunity for meaningful political and economic change in Azerbaijan. But the country’s green transition may instead serve to sustain the institutions that reinforce the regime’s stability. Baku’s Balancing Act: Azerbaijan Between Green Energy and Oil Rents – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Brazil
(Giulia Branco Spiess – Wilson Center) Amid global upheaval, Brazil is experiencing a wave of economic optimism. Its economy is outperforming forecasts, including the IMF’s, and Moody’s credit rating upgrade reinforces the perception that the country is moving in the right direction, despite concerns about fiscal stability. However, with the 2026 presidential race approaching, Brazil’s municipal elections have again demonstrated the country’s complex political dynamics. – Brazil’s Economic Optimism Meets Political Complexity | Wilson Center
BRICS
(Marina Yue Zhang – Lowy The Interpreter) The recent BRICS+ summit in Kazan, Russia, was attended by representatives from 32 countries, with 24 heads of state present. The summit was not only a major diplomatic event for Russia but also underscored a growing push by nations in the Global South to seek alternatives to Western-dominated institutions. – New players on the bloc: Is BRICS+ a critical challenge? | Lowy Institute
Climate Action
(Tom Ellison – Just Security) The security threat of climate change has never been more stark, as highlighted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton devastating communities, killing hundreds, drawing vast civilian and military relief, triggering foreign and domestic disinformation, and disrupting military readiness and diplomatic coordination on Ukraine. This underscores the urgency of concrete action on efforts like September’s White House’s Framework for Climate Resilience and Security and the call by the new U.K. Foreign Secretary to put climate change at the center of its foreign policy. But taking real action on climate change requires moving beyond double standards about uncertainty and treating it in the same way as other security risks. – Don’t Ignore the Security Risks of Climate Change Because of “Uncertainty”
(Melanie Pill – Lowy The Interpreter) Nations come together in Azerbaijan next week for annual talks about how to address and reduce the ever-increasing effects from the burning of fossil fuels. This year’s negotiations need to agree to a new climate finance goal to replace the previous commitment dating back to 2009 of $US100 billion annually by 2020, which was only achieved with a two-year delay in 2022. – It’s the politics, stupid: Three key reasons for slow progress on the new UN climate finance goal | Lowy Institute
India
(Ramanath Jha – Observer Research Foundation) Birds provide multiple benefits to the world’s ecosystems. In recent years, experts have raised the alarm about deteriorating bird populations, with some species becoming extinct and others threatened to dangerous levels. This decline in avian populations is primarily attributed to urbanisation. Concerted efforts are required to conserve birds and their habitats in cities. The Government of India, state governments, urban local bodies, non-government organisations, bird welfare organisations, and the urban community will all play a vital role. – Managing Avian Conservation, Protection, and Diversity in Indian Cities
India – Quad
(Lai-Ha Chan, Pak K. Lee – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Not a “natural partner” of the US, India is a “wild card” in the Quad. The grouping is built more on geopolitical pragmatism than on shared liberal-democratic norms and values. – Why is India a “Wild Card” in Quad 2.0? A Study of India’s National Identity – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Indonesia
(Hilman Palaon – Lowy The Interpreter) The iPhone 16 has been banned from sale in Indonesia. For a rapidly growing, tech-savvy nation, this is a setback for Apple. But the Indonesian government seems determined to send a message to the big tech firm. The ban is due to Apple’s failure to meet the Local Content Requirement (LCR) mandated by the Indonesian government. The LCR aims to stimulate domestic industries by requiring that a minimum percentage of a product’s components be sourced locally. Specifically, for the telecommunications sector, including smartphones, this requirement stands at 40 per cent. – Indonesia takes a bite out of Apple, and sets itself a test for future investment | Lowy Institute
Middle East
(Carolyn Moorman, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Andie Perry, Siddhant Kishore, Ben Rezaei, Katherine Wells, Kelly Campa, Victoria Penza, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War) Post-War Control in the Gaza Strip: Fatah is attempting to extend its control over the Gaza Strip after the October 7 War, but Fatah’s lack of pro-Fatah Palestinian Authority (PA)-affiliated military forces in the Gaza Strip will make this extremely difficult. Fatah likely views the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ weakened military position as an opportunity to confront Hamas over Hamas efforts to maintain control in the Gaza Strip.
Israeli Military Operations in the Gaza Strip: Israeli forces are conducting a major clearing operation across the northern Gaza Strip to disrupt militia reconstitution efforts. Palestinian militia elements could continue attacks in Jabalia after the IDF withdrew there in May 2024, though it was unclear how effective the Hamas military organization in Jabalia would continue to function. Hamas’ military wing has probably attempted to rebuild itself where possible in Jabalia since May 2024. It is unclear how successful these efforts would have been, however, given Hamas’ inability to resupply its fighters and attrition during Israeli operations in May.
Iraqi Militias and Ballistic Missiles: The commander of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada boasted about Iranian-backed Iraqi militia ballistic missile capabilities on November 5, likely to deter potential Israeli strikes in Iraq. The Iranian-backed Iraqi groups probably also seek to message their strength to gain more influence within the Axis of Resistance amid the severe weakening of the Axis’ previous crown jewel, Hezbollah. The Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have deepened collaboration with the Houthis since October 7, 2023, which could give Iraqi militias access to the knowledge necessary to do rudimentary ballistic missile production.
Russia Launches Iranian Satellites: Russia launched the Iranian Kowsar high-resolution sensing satellite and Hodhod communications satellite into orbit using a Russian Soyuz rocket on November 5, which Iran could use to collect imagery on US and Israeli assets and bases in the region. Omid Faza’s founder, Hossein Shahrabi Farahani, who previously headed US-sanctioned Iran Electronics Industries (IEI) Space Group, created the company in 2018 with several unspecified Amir Kabir University students.
Israeli Defense Minister Fired: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on November 5. Netanyahu explained his decision by citing a “crisis of trust” that had emerged between him and Gallant.
Hamas Price Gouging Aid in the Gaza Strip: Gazans protested price gouging of humanitarian aid and goods in Deir al Balah, central Gaza Strip, on November 4 and 5. It is notable that Palestinian civilians are protesting in Deir al Balah given that it remains a Hamas stronghold. – Iran Update, November 5, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War
Moldova and Georgia
(Adam Simpson – Lowy The Interpreter) While most eyes have been on the crucial US election this week, European leaders will nevertheless be breathing a little easier after Sunday’s second round of the Moldovan presidential elections, which returned the pro-EU incumbent, Maia Sandu. However, the outcome of Georgian parliamentary elections from the previous week was less heartening, nominally returning the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party to a parliamentary majority. – Moldova and Georgia serve as geopolitical bellwethers | Lowy Institute
NATO
(Ian O. Lesser – Policy Center for the New South) At its Washington summit in July 2024, marking NATO’s 75th anniversary, the Alliance focused on strengthening deterrence and defense in response to the ongoing threat from Russia. The summit also addressed escalating risks from an increasingly assertive China, particularly regarding its support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine, underscoring partnerships in the Indo-Pacific with regional leaders in attendance. While Southern-oriented challenges and partnerships may not have been a central feature, closer analysis of the summit’s conclusions reveal a significant “southern” dimension. Despite a primary emphasis on the Eastern and Northern fronts, the summit highlighted a number of issues relevant to the Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf, Africa, and the southern Atlantic. – After the Washington Summit: NATO and the Southern Neighborhood
Nuclear Energy
(Isabel Bosman, Olena Lapenko, Dzvinka Kachur – SAIIA) South Africa’s Koeberg is currently the only nuclear power plant (NPP) on the continent; however, nearly two dozen African countries are interested in developing nuclear energy. The primary public concern regarding NPPs is safety. This factor was sharply inserted in the public consciousness with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and subsequent occupation of two nuclear power facilities in the country: Chernobyl (no longer operational but still highly radioactive) and Zaporizhzhia NPP. As more countries express their interest in nuclear energy and with the number of military conflicts around the globe on the rise, the safety of NPPs in armed conflicts should become a key consideration. – From Koeberg to Chernobyl: The Challenge of Nuclear Safety in SA and Ukraine – SAIIA
Pact of the Future
(Njeri Mwagiru – SAIIA) The adoption of the Pact of the Future at the UN Summit of the Future in September marks a significant historical moment of note, approximately 80 years since the establishment of the UN, and 80 years before the start of the 22nd century. It takes stock of the world today and lays the groundwork for better global futures. – The Pact for the Future: Gains to Celebrate and Challenges to Surmount – SAIIA
Russia
(Sitara Noor – Lowy The Interpreter) At a meeting of Russia’s Security Council last month, President Vladimir Putin announced proposed changes to the Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine. If implemented, the changes mark a significant departure from the existing doctrine – the Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence – announced in 2020. The move is widely seen as a response to US and UK deliberations as to whether to allow Ukraine to fire conventional Western missiles into Russia. Among the changes, there are three to watch. – What’s new in Russia’s latest nuclear statement? | Lowy Institute
(Volodymyr Ohryzko, Roman Sohn, Ariana Gic – RUSI) After more than a decade of the largest war in Europe since the Second World War, the West can no longer ignore the fact that the tipping point of the global balance of power lies in Ukraine. While relentlessly pursuing its genocidal policy to destroy Ukraine as a nation and Ukrainians as a distinct national and ethnic group, Moscow has been pushing an international agenda of a ‘new world order’ to replace the Western-led, rules-based system of international relations. – The West Must Stop Protecting Russia from the Consequences of its Actions | Royal United Services Institute
Russia’s War on Ukraine
(Oleksandr V Danylyuk – RUSI) North Korea’s entry into the Russia–Ukraine war has globalised the conflict, intensifying the risks as Ukraine faces two highly militarised adversaries. – North Korea Enters the Fray: Must Ukraine Win a Third World War on its Own? | Royal United Services Institute
(Karolina Hird, Nicole Wolkov, Davit Gasparyan, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, and George Barros – Institute for the Study of War) The first North Korean forces have likely officially engaged in combat against Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast.
The Kremlin appointed the first-ever “Time of Heroes” program participant to a federal-level position, furthering its ongoing effort to staff government positions with pro-war veterans and set long-term conditions for the militarization of Russian government bodies from local to federal levels.
Russia launched two Iranian-made satellites into orbit on November 5 via a Russian space-launch vehicle, furthering a trend of Russian-Iranian bilateral space cooperation.
Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk, northwest of Kreminna, in Chasiv Yar, near Toretsk, southeast of Pokrovsk, northeast of Kurakhove, near Vuhledar, and north of Robotyne.
Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions south of Chasiv Yar.
The Russian military is struggling to maintain a sufficient number of quality personnel within traditionally elite forces. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War
South Korea – Japan
(Ranjit Kumar Dhawan – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Historical issues have a deep impact on the relationship between South Korea and Japan. However, the recent cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo with regards to the colonial history (1910–1945) reflects the improvement in the bilateral relations between these two ‘middle power’ countries. It also signifies the geopolitical shift in the East Asian region. – History and Geopolitics in South Korea–Japan Relations: The Sado Mine Issue | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
South Korea – North Korea – Russia
(Sang Hun Seok – RUSI) With the deployment of North Korean troops in Ukraine complicating the global geopolitical landscape, how does South Korea perceive the current situation, what challenges may constrain its response, and how will it ultimately react? – South Korea Navigates the Moscow-Pyongyang Axis Amid Domestic Constraints | Royal United Services Institute
USA
(Bill Sweetman – ASPI The Strategist) Boeing is one of the Pentagon’s biggest contractors and therefore a heavyweight supplier for US allies. So its alarming financial condition is much more than investment news. The company has got itself into loss-making defence programs by overestimating the potential for production profits to cover research-and-development losses. Expect it to be wary in future. Meanwhile, the other two big US military aircraft builders, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, look more interested in defending current business, such as the F-35 (Joint Strike Fighter) and B-21 programs, than moving on new and riskier ones. – Boeing’s woes and the state of the US defence industry | The Strategist
Vietnam
(Jasper Roctus – EGMONT) If one were to look solely at their highly similar government systems and cordial foreign policy statements, one might assume that China and Vietnam are the closest of allies. The fact that To Lam, who succeeded long-time paramount leader Nguyen Phu Trong as “National Chairman” (Chu tich nuoc, “president”) of Vietnam and General Secretary (Tong Bi thu) of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) following Trong’s passing in June 2024, chose China for his first state visit, reinforces this perception. Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs further underscored this by stating that the visit “was successful in all aspects and made important contributions to promoting the building of a community with a shared future for Vietnam,” seemingly signaling Hanoi’s full embrace of Beijing’s main foreign policy concept of “community with a shared future for mankind” (renlei minyun gongtongti, formerly translated as “community of common destiny for mankind”). – Vietnam’s Bamboo Diplomacy: Between Beijing’s Persistent Shadow and Growing Western Ties – Egmont Institute
