From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Africa, Canada, Europe, Georgia, Indo-Pacific, Japan, Middle East, Nigeria, Russia, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), US, US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (UMSCA), US-Taiwan
Africa
(Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala – Brookings) These are difficult times for global trade. Despite the resilience displayed through successive crises, the world economy continues to be vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, unilateral trade barriers, and regional conflicts. In Africa, while most economies have seen growth tick back upwards after the pandemic, many are struggling with burdensome debt, a financing squeeze, and vulnerability to climate change. – Trade and Africa’s development goals: A window of opportunity
(Brookings) Foresight Africa podcast host Landry Signé speaks with James Robinson, 2024 Nobel Laureate in economics and University Professor at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, about the critical importance of societal institutions in driving economic prosperity in Africa and the imperative of homegrown solutions in unlocking the continent’s potential. – Nobel laureate in economics explains why African societies are ready for rapid economic development
Canada
(Raquel Garbers – Centre for International Governance Innovation) The blending of traditional military threats/hostilities with below-threshold attacks has created a 360-degree threat environment where every form of national power is a potential weapon and near everything is a potential target. Hostile states have undercut the power advantage that secured the United States and its allies by amassing coercive military and economic power. Economic warfare has been central to their success. With deterrence failing, the United States is readying itself for the prospect of today’s economic war sliding into hot war between major powers. To secure itself, it will act unilaterally in defence of its own national interests, including at the expense of its allies/partners. This policy brief, the second as part of CIGI’s Canada at Economic War project, says securing Canada in this threat environment requires action on three fronts: a plan to maximize Canada’s strategic leverage in relations with allies and adversaries alike; uniting Canadians behind the defence of Canada; and making them active partners in that defence. – Canada at Economic War: The 360-Degree Threat – Centre for International Governance Innovation
Europe
(Bastian Giegerich, Ben Schreer – IISS) The United States has decided that it will no longer underwrite European security. The administration of President Donald Trump has stopped aid to Ukraine and surrendered key positions to Russia in order to achieve a ceasefire in Russia’s war of aggression. It has done so without much regard for European security or for whether there will be a just or lasting solution to the conflict. For European leaders, debating whether the transatlantic relationship can be repaired, complaining about the US or developing schemes to mollify Trump are distractions. Rather, the task should be to build up European defence capability; decide which technological dependencies on the US in military and civilian domains remain acceptable and which do not; explain to voters the harsh reality of a world in which major powers use economic and military coercion to get their way; and inject additional immediate military and financial assistance into Ukraine. European leaders need to stop focusing on Trump’s choices and instead concentrate on their own. – Without the US it’s all about us in European defence
Georgia
(Zaal Anjaparidze – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze acknowledged challenges in Georgia-EU relations in early February, citing bureaucratic obstacles, while reaffirming Georgia’s pro-European stance despite concerns that the current ruling party is leading the country toward Russia and undermining democratic principles. Political turbulence in Georgia following its October 2024 parliamentary elections provides Russia with more resources to impede Georgia’s integration with the West.
Moscow is leveraging economic, political, and ideological pressure to expand its influence in Georgia. This includes strengthening economic ties, exploiting Orthodox unity, and supporting pro-Russian narratives. Georgia remains economically reliant on Russia in terms of trade, gas imports, and investments. This dependence grants Moscow significant political leverage, creating vulnerabilities to Russian pressure. Western sanctions on Georgia risk fueling anti-Western sentiment and pushing the country further into Russia’s orbit. Georgia’s integration with the West, particularly with the European Union, will remain in jeopardy as long as the political status quo is maintained. – Georgia Remains Target of Attempted Russian Influence – Jamestown
Indo – Pacific
(Justin Bronk – RUSI) On 26 December 2024, the Chinese aircraft manufacturer Chengdu flew a flight test example of a large next-generation combat aircraft, dubbed J-36 by many China watchers, in broad daylight for all the world to see. The airframe displayed broadband stealth features, and a configuration designed for long-range supersonic flight, as well as a large internal weapons bay. The development follows American efforts to build a similar capability. In 2020, US officials disclosed that a demonstrator aircraft for the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programme was already flying. However, the US Air Force subsequently paused development of NGAD pending a major review, one that ultimately concluded that the US Air Force does indeed require a large, crewed NGAD aircraft. The question of whether to proceed remains unanswered by President Donald Trump’s administration, with cost concerns framed against numerous competing spending priorities, including a new Sentinel ICBM programme. – Large, Crewed Sixth-Generation Aircraft Have Unique Value in the Indo-Pacific | Royal United Services Institute
Japan
(IISS) Robert Ward hosts Professor Takahara Akio, Emeritus Professor of The University of Tokyo, Dr Elizabeth Wishnick, Senior Research Scientist at the Centre for Naval Analyses (CNA) and Dr Catherine Jones, a Lecturer at the University of St Andrews, to explore Japan’s challenges amid growing cooperation between Russia and China. – Japan’s challenges amid growing cooperation between Russia and China with Professor Takahara Akio,Dr Elizabeth Wishnick and Dr Catherine Jones
Middle East
(Thomas S. Warrick – Atlantic Council) Who will govern Gaza? This has always been the most difficult question that must be answered to end the fighting between Israel and Hamas and see the return of the hostages taken on October 7, 2023. At a March 4 summit in Cairo, Arab leaders endorsed an Egyptian plan, which is more detailed than any previous Arab plan for Gaza, that aims to answer this important question. While Israel will not accept some key elements and the Trump administration immediately criticized it, Egypt’s proposal is useful as the basis for further negotiations that will lead to a plan that Israel, Palestinians, and other governments—including the United States and Arab partners—could make work. The Trump administration should take the lead and build on what the Egyptians have proposed in order to move negotiations forward. – The Egyptian plan for postwar Gaza is a good starting point—but it needs changes – Atlantic Council
Nigeria
(David Lubin – Chatham House) Two years after electing Bola Tinubu as president in February 2023, Nigerian voters have good reasons to feel traumatized by their choice. The value of the naira has collapsed, petrol prices have quadrupled following the withdrawal of motor fuel subsidies, and food prices are more than 80 per cent higher than when the election was held. Poverty, which blights the lives of more than half of the population, has risen. – Nigeria’s economy needs the naira to stay competitive | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian North is negatively impacted by climate change at a rate that is three times faster than in the south. The thawing permafrost, faltering infrastructure, and isolation of the population centers and military bases in Russia’s North place additional requirements on Moscow as it attempts to sustain Northern Sea Route activities and its own Arctic ambitions. This problem has grown worse since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has forced Moscow to delay or cancel plans to repair and build more road and rail infrastructure in the North at a time when rivers in many parts of the region no longer freeze hard or long enough to serve as ice roads. These developments, in turn, have been exacerbated by the “Atlantification” of the Arctic, meaning Russia now faces greater competition, as the Arctic Ocean itself is ice-free longer each year, allowing foreign vessels to transit without relying on Russian icebreakers. – Rising Arctic Temperatures Threaten Russian Cities and Military Facilities in Far North – Jamestown
(Hlib Parfonov – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian economy appears to be experiencing “reverse industrialization,” shifting from the development of high-technology industries to labor-intensive sectors. This trend is negatively impacting Russia’s industrial output and economic development. Russia’s industrial growth is uneven, with the military-industrial complex showing the most growth while civilian sectors stagnate. Russia’s ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine is draining the workforce, particularly as conscription is expanded. There are more job vacancies than skilled employees in Russia due to the surplus of graduates in subjects such as humanities and social sciences and the shortage of technical and specialist graduates. Kremlin reforms that attempt to align the education system with labor market demands are raising concerns from students and families about fairness and quality of training. These changes are reshaping Russia’s economic and social landscape in ways that may be difficult to reverse. – Russia Experiences Reverse Industrialization as Economy Deteriorates – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Judith Gough – Chatham House) Last week’s press conference with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Donald Trump in the Oval Office was extraordinary by any measure. Disagreements at summits happen – behind closed doors. But it is highly unusual for discord to play out before the cameras in such dramatic fashion. What unfolded was as much a clash of culture and personality as it was a clash of substance. And whilst it is important to understand the first two issues, what matters is the substance and the way forward. Some commentators have criticized Zelenskyy for his uncompromising performance during the press conference, but Ukrainians are uniting around their wartime leader: Zelenskyy’s ratings in Ukraine have been going up. As I know from my own time in Ukraine, nothing unites the country more than an attack on one of its own. The US and Ukraine have never looked further apart since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, yet even now they are still united on one vital point: both countries want peace as soon as possible. This is something that can be built upon. – Picking up the pieces after the Trump–Zelenskyy summit: Europe has mobilized, but the road will be bumpy | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US
(James A. Haley – Centre for International Governance Innovation) The US dollar has long enjoyed preferential status as the world’s dominant medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value. US President Donald Trump’s erratic leadership and his readiness to violate long-established political norms, including the independence of the US Federal Reserve, could threaten that status. In the event of a sudden erosion of the dollar’s role, the abrupt repricing of US dollar assets on which the global financial system is based could entail severe financial volatility that threatens global growth. Though this is a low-probability outcome, it is one that nevertheless warrants consideration. More likely is a gradual shift out of US assets by international investors — including central banks — looking to reduce their exposure to possible policy shocks, particularly the higher inflation that could result from the dismissal of the current Fed chair, Jerome Powell, and the appointment of an individual more yielding to Trump’s whims. – Could US Political Risks End American (Financial) Exceptionalism? – Centre for International Governance Innovation
(Lulu Mansour, Omowunmi Odeja – Lawfare) On March 4, President Donald Trump addressed a joint session of Congress for the first time since his re-election. While the speech primarily focused on domestic issues, it also covered key foreign policy and national security issues. Below are excerpts from the speech, organized by subject. – National Security Excerpts From Trump’s Address to Congress | Lawfare
(Atlantic Council) “Swift and unrelenting action.” That’s how US President Donald Trump described the first forty-three days of his second term during an address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night. In the longest presidential joint session speech in history, Trump touted his global tariff plans, spoke of “reclaiming” the Panama Canal with new US investments, promised to “wage war” on Mexican drug cartels, invited Greenland to join the United States, and pushed hard for a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. – Experts react: What Trump’s address to Congress means for the world – Atlantic Council
(Mariel Ferragamo – Council on Foreign Relations) In March 2025, President Donald Trump followed through with his promise to impose sweeping tariffs on three of the United States’ major trading partners: Canada, China, and Mexico. He cited the “extraordinary threat” posed by fentanyl, a lethal and highly potent synthetic opioid and the countries’ failure to prevent the flow of illegal fentanyl into the United States. – How Does Fentanyl Reach the United States? | Council on Foreign Relations
US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (UMSCA)
(Brookings) As the United States, Mexico, and Canada begin discussions in the run-up to the 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), this compilation of expert papers aims to identify areas where strengthening U.S. cooperation with Canada and Mexico can advance key economic and national security goals for the United States—and where USMCA reform can help. – USMCA Forward 2025 | Brookings
US – Taiwan
(David Sacks and Adam Segal – Council on Foreign Relations) On Monday, March 3, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) would invest an additional $100 billion to expand its advanced semiconductor manufacturing operations in Arizona. This money will be put toward three new fabrication plants (or fabs), two advanced packaging facilities, and a major research and design (R&D) center. TSMC touted this as the largest single foreign direct investment in U.S. history, bringing its total investment to $165 billion and doubling its planned manufacturing plants from three to six. – Unpacking TSMC’s $100 Billion Investment in the United States | Council on Foreign Relations
