Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Bangladesh
(ThinkChina) Indian academic Rishi Gupta explains why Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s downfall is not a sudden development but an outcome that has been simmering since 2018. In the aftermath, Bangladesh’s neighbours such as India, China and Myanmar will have to manage spillover effects and instability in the region.
Bangladesh is burning and it’s a worry for the region (thinkchina.sg)
(David Brewster – Lowy The Interpreter) Autocratic regimes have a habit of ending quickly. On Monday, after weeks of violent protests, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, was ushered into an army helicopter and flown out of the country, after crowds reportedly stormed her residence in Dhaka. The Bangladesh Army chief, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, announced the formation of an interim government, with promises to hold early elections and a return to civilian rule. But the Army will have a difficult job in rebuilding a stable political system that has been undermined by Hasina’s 16 years of autocratic rule. It will also need to navigate competing claims for influence by India and China and a civil war in neighbouring Myanmar.
Bangladesh’s new military-led government has a tough job ahead | Lowy Institute
Bangladesh – India
(Sohini Bose – Observer Research Foundation) Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who ruled the country for the past 15 years and was re-elected for a fourth term in January 2024, has resigned from her position and left the country for a ‘safer place’, as protestors stormed her official residence, burnt her office, and sieged the Parliament, marking a dramatic close to a seemingly ‘near-permanent’ political rule. As mass unrest rages and the future of the country is questioned with an intermittent military rule taking over Bangladesh, the geopolitical implications of this domestic tumult will be significant for neighbouring nations, particularly India, with which it shares its longest international boundary. The past decade has been one of the most important in the India-Bangladesh relationship, ushering in a ‘Golden Chapter’ in bilateral cooperation. However, the fate of India-Bangladesh relations will be tested in recent circumstances, as an apolitical month-long student protest which took on the colours of a mass movement has brought the nation to a standstill and is set to redefine South Asian politics.
Concluding the ‘Golden Chapter’ (orfonline.org)
Bolivia
(Jennifer Scotland – RUSI) In the space of approximately three hours on 26 June, a contingent of soldiers led by then Commanding General of the Bolivian Army General Juan José Zúñiga mobilised in the Plaza Murillo of Bolivia’s administrative capital La Paz. Shortly afterwards, an armoured vehicle forced open the main gate of the Palacio Quemado, the former seat of government, leading to a heated verbal standoff between President Luis Arce and Zúñiga, who Arce later accused of being the lead conspirator behind an attempted coup d’état. In a confusing chronology of events, the situation appeared to resolve itself after Arce swore in a new military high command and demanded that Zúñiga retreat.
Canada
(Jessica West – Centre for International Governance Innovation) Increasingly, outer space is being deemed a battleground for nation-states. A cyberattack against Viasat’s communications network marked the “first shot” of Russia’s Ukraine invasion. Some satellites are feared to be weapons in disguise. China’s robotic capabilities in space are raising concerns. And there are fears that Russia might pursue nuclear weapons in orbit. It’s timely, then, that the Canadian Parliament’s Standing Committee on National Defence is studying “space defence.” Urgent questions confront us. Chief among them is how Canada will pursue defence in space. When the question of the deployment of armed satellites is inevitably raised, the answer should be an unequivocal “no.”
China
(ThinkChina) Lianhe Zaobao correspondent Edwin Ong takes a look at the 20 key tasks set out by the Chinese State Council to boost domestic consumption across a wide range of sectors.
China sets out new tasks to boost domestic consumption (thinkchina.sg)
(ThinkChina) Lianhe Zaobao Shenzhen correspondent Daryl Lim speaks with experts and vendors about the prospects of Apple’s upcoming iPhone 16 launch in the Chinese market, which could be impacted by the challenging economic conditions at home and abroad.
How will Apple’s iPhone 16 fare in China amid declining market share? (thinkchina.sg)
(ThinkChina) Lianhe Zaobao journalist Li Kang speaks with analysts to find out why Chinese stocks and currency are still performing well amid the Asia-Pacific stock market crash the past week.
China’s stock market a bright spot as Asia’s market tumbles (thinkchina.sg)
(Amit Ranjan Alok – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Xi Jinping has big dreams for the Chinese military, with the invasion of Taiwan at the top of the list. Ongong turmoil with restructuring efforts however may impede progress as the grinding between political and security centres of gravity contintue to occur.
China – Middle East
(Joseph Webster – Lowy The Interpreter) Chinese foreign policy faces an important test in the Middle East. China’s bilateral trade with the Gulf Cooperation Council and Iran totalled more than $300 billion in 2023, a 48 per cent increase from 2019. China also sources half of its economy-sustaining crude oil imports from the Arabian Gulf. As its economic stake grows, China has taken a more active diplomatic role, notably brokering the March 2023 resumption of ties between Riyadh and Tehran.
China’s high-stakes diplomacy: Managing Middle Eastern turmoil | Lowy Institute
China – Pakistan
(Syed Abdul Ahad Waseem – Middle East Institute) The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), once heralded as a “game-changer,” has almost disappeared from the spotlight in recent years in Pakistan. The multibillion-dollar project aims to connect China’s northwestern region of Xinjiang with Pakistan’s Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea through a network of highways, railways, and pipelines, offering strategic dividends to China and an economic lifeline to Pakistan. In recent years, the project has faced slow implementation, unpaid loans, corruption, and a dire security situation in Pakistan.
Emerging Technologies
(Charles Ferguson – ASPI The Strategist) Just as the West has been forced into confrontation with Russia and China, military conflicts have revealed major systemic weaknesses in the US and European militaries and their defence-industrial bases. These problems stem from fundamental technology trends. In Ukraine, expensive manned systems such as tanks, combat aircraft and warships have proven extremely vulnerable to inexpensive unmanned drones, cruise missiles, and guided missiles. Russia has already lost more than 8,000 armored vehicles, a third of its Black Sea fleet and many combat aircraft, leading it to move its expensive manned systems farther from combat zones.
AI complacency is compromising Western security | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Brianna Rosen – War On The Rocks) AI-enabled warfare has reached its “Oppenheimer moment.” From the backroom to the battlefield, AI is now being integrated into the full spectrum of military operations, including in logistics, intelligence collection, wargaming, decision-making, target identification, and weapons systems, with increasing levels of autonomy. The Ukrainian military is flying AI-enabled drones; the Israel Defense Forces are relying on AI to accelerate and expand targeting in Gaza; and the Pentagon is using AI to identify targets for airstrikes. The military AI revolution has arrived, and the debate over how it will be governed is heating up.
How to Make Military AI Governance More Robust – War on the Rocks
(Alexandra Bustos Iliescu – AI for Good) The AI for Good Global Summit 2024, held in Geneva, brought together leaders and innovators from various sectors to discuss the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in achieving the SDGs. Among the distinguished speakers was Anna Koivuniemi, head of the Google DeepMind. Koivuniemi noted an increase in AI use cases addressing the SDGs. She also stressed the importance of ensuring equitable access to AI technologies and data.
AI for Sustainable Development – AI for Good (itu.int)
(Celia Pizzuto – AI for Good) The AI for Good Global Summit 2024, held in Geneva, brought together leaders and innovators from various sectors to discuss the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI). Among the distinguished speakers was Vincent Vanhoucke, Senior Director of Robotics at Google DeepMind. Vanhoucke provided an in-depth perspective on the transformative power of generative AI (gen) in both the digital and physical worlds. Speaking at the summit, Vanhoucke highlighted the potential of AI to revolutionize various sectors and contribute significantly to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The Power of AI Convergence for Global Impact – AI for Good (itu.int)
(Andrew Myers – Stanford HAI) Before the creators of a new AI-based chatbot can release their latest apps to the general public, they often reconcile their models with the various intentions and personal values of the intended users. In the artificial intelligence world, this process is known as “alignment.” In theory, alignment should be universal and make large language models (LLMs) more agreeable and helpful for a variety of users across the globe—and ideally for the greatest number of users possible.
The Challenge of Aligning AI ChatBots (stanford.edu)
(Salil Gunashekar, Henri van Soest – RAND Corporation) AI subtly permeates people’s daily lives—filtering email and helping navigation with apps—but it also manifests in more remarkable ways, such as disease identification and assisting scientists in tackling climate change. Alongside this great potential, AI also introduces considerable risks. Fairness, reliability, accountability, privacy, transparency, and safety are critical concerns that prompt a crucial question: Can AI be trusted? This question has sparked debates from London to Washington and Brussels to Addis Ababa as policymakers wrestle with the unprecedented challenges and opportunities ushered in by AI.
European Union
(Yurri Clavilier – IISS) European heavy-armour manufacturers are pursuing at least five different Main Battle Tank designs, offering users crewed- and uncrewed-turret interim options as the arrival of the next generation slips toward the mid-century.
Europe’s heavy-metal options (iiss.org)
(Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies) Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s visits to Russia and China, as well as his meeting with former US President Donald Trump, hold significant implications for European Union (EU) unity and foreign policy. Firstly, Orbán’s engagements with Russia and China were seen as contrary to the collective stance of the EU, particularly regarding sanctions on Russia following its actions in Ukraine and the EU’s cautious approach toward China’s growing influence. These visits can create friction within the EU, as member states strive to present a united front on major international issues. Orbán’s actions can exacerbate existing divisions within the EU, between liberal European countries that favor a more confrontational stance against Russia and China, and more conservative countries that may be more open to engagement due to historical ties, their political ideologies (especially given the rise of far-right political parties across the continent) or economic interests such as bilateral oil contracts with Russia. The unity of the EU relies heavily on solidarity and trust among its members. Orbán’s independent and proactive diplomacy is undermining this trust, thus making it harder to achieve consensus on key issues during the six months of the Hungarian presidency of the EU Council.
Global Governance
(Kara Hurst, Gim Huay Neo – World Economic Forum) Public and private sectors must collaborate to address water security challenges, integrating water sustainability into corporate goals. Amazon Web Services (AWS) provides examples. Enhancing water efficiency and recycling is essential for sustainable water management. Advanced technologies such as cloud computing and the Internet of Things (IoT) can enhance operational efficiency and offer avenues for faster action. To build resilient water systems, corporate sustainability goals and business models together with community needs and government-set priorities can inform a more holistic and systems view – investing in local projects to restore water resources and reduce water loss.
(Manpreet Kaur Juneja – World Bank blogs) After decades of private sector growth, private capital holds most available global finance. The rise of private wealth coincided with the decline of public wealth in developed countries, which now hold zero or even negative shares in total wealth due to significant public debt burdens, according to the 2022 World Inequality Lab Report. Moreover, the 2023 IMF Global Debt Monitor revealed that global public debt reached 90% of GDP in 2022, a dramatic increase from the 30% recorded in the early 1970s.
How blended finance can reorient cautious private investors to infrastructure (worldbank.org)
(World Bank blogs) Central banks have made substantial progress in the fight against inflation. In July 2022, the median inflation rate worldwide was 9.4 percent, the highest since 2008. By last month, it had been whittled down to 2.9 percent. This decline in inflation has been broad-based: in 90 percent of countries it is now lower than in July 2022. Still, the war is yet to be won. Global inflation is 0.7 percentage points higher than it was on the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. In July 2022, inflation was above target ranges in all countries with inflation-targeting central banks. The share is much lower now, but inflation still exceeds target ranges in more than 40 percent of these countries.
Victory in sight—but the war on global inflation isn’t won yet (worldbank.org)
Global Risks
(Shravishtha Ajaykumar – Observer Research Foundation) The rapid development of genetic engineering technologies has created multiple opportunities for treating genetic diseases and improving human health. However, genetic engineering technology poses ethical, societal, and security challenges. This brief explores these risks, focusing on those related to genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and the revival of ideologies that consider some races to be “more suitable” than others. The brief also discusses security concerns, including the potential for biological warfare and bioterrorism. It underlines the necessity for comprehensive global governance to ensure the responsible and ethical use of genetic engineering technologies to mitigate risks and maximise benefits.
The Ethical and Security Implications of Genetic Engineering (orfonline.org)
India
(Veeramani Choorikkadan – East Asia Forum) India is positioned to become a significant contributor to global value chains due to its abundant low-wage labour force and recent policies aimed at attracting multinational corporations and facilitating export growth. To fully capitalise on this potential, India needs to address inverted import duty structures, labour and land market rigidities, tailor its trade agreements with economically diverse nations, and focus on sectors with comparative advantages, particularly labour-intensive industries.
Strategically reforming India’s role in global value chains | East Asia Forum
(Shravishtha Ajaykumar – Observer Research Foundation) The Kargil War, triggered by the infiltration of Pakistani soldiers and their occupation of territory on the Indian side of the Line of Control (LoC), occurred in 1999. The conflict garnered attention globally, not just because of the tense relationship between Pakistan and India but also because both were nuclear-armed states. It was a limited war with nuclear implications and stability in South Asia. Pakistani officials, especially then-Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmed, issued a veiled nuclear threat that there was a possibility of nuclear escalation. To be sure, this threat was issued after India escalated with massive infantry, artillery, and air attacks against Pakistani forces occupying the Kargil-Drass sector in late May 1999. India, on the other hand, maintained a position of restraint, matching its nuclear No-First-Use (NFU) policy.
The nuclear dimension of the Kargil War and its legacy (orfonline.org)
(Manoj Joshi – Observer Research Foundation) Throughout their history, intelligence agencies have been forced to undergo reform and reorientation because of failure. In India, too, reforms in intelligence agencies have occurred, primarily after wars. Following the 1962 debacle, the Directorate General of Security (DGS) was set up within the Intelligence Bureau (IB) with its operational unit Aviation Research Centre (ARC) tasked with obtaining intelligence on China. Following the failure of the IB in the 1965 War, the government pressed ahead with the decision to create a separate external intelligence agency, the R&AW and linked the DGS with it.
Post-Kargil intelligence reforms (orfonline.org)
India – Myanmar – Thailand
(Soumya Bhowmick – East Asia Forum) The India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway aims to bolster regional economic integration and expand India’s influence in Southeast Asia. But despite its potential benefits, the project has faced significant delays due to political instability in Myanmar, financial constraints and security concerns. Ethnic conflict and bureaucratic hurdles have further complicated its implementation. The highway remains a crucial component of India’s Act East policy and promises to enhance trade, connectivity and strategic partnerships in the region. As it nears completion, it is poised to become a vital artery for regional development and cooperation.
Trilateral highway is the road to regional economic connectivity | East Asia Forum
India – USA
(Vivek Mishra – Observer Research Foundation) Few decisive moments can transform the bilateral relationship between two countries, especially when they share a contested past. Yet, such moments are etched in the political and strategic memories of the people. The Kargil War of 1999 was one such moment—not just for India’s remarkable turnaround of a topographical disadvantage into a historic defeat for Pakistan, but perhaps equally importantly, for India’s relationship with the United States (US). The Clinton administration played a decisive role in changing the course of India-US relations, setting the stage for altered dynamics in South Asia. Pakistan, a long-standing non-NATO ally of the US, was refused help by the Clinton administration against India. In one fell swoop, the US implicitly recognised Pakistan’s illegal infiltration across the Line of Control (LoC). What followed was a series of policy reversals by the US in South Asia that would reposition India in Washington’s strategic calculus.
Kargil conflict turned a corner in India-US relations (orfonline.org)
Indonesia
(Karl Gading Sayudha – East Asia Forum) Indonesia licensed Starlink in May 2024, joining the Philippines and Malaysia as the only countries in Southeast Asia to do so. The initial investment by Starlink aims to enhance internet connectivity, especially in remote areas using low-Earth orbit satellites (LEO). Yet, the expansion has raised critical security concerns, especially as the new network widens the attack surface for cyber threats, leaving Indonesia is at risk of compromising its internet sovereignty.
Indonesia’s Starlink expansion must balance connectivity and security | East Asia Forum
(Siwage Dharma Negara, Neo Hui Yun Rebecca – ISEAS) The construction of Indonesia’s new administrative capital, Nusantara (IKN), has been slow due to various factors, including poor weather conditions and uncertainties over the priorities of the Prabowo government. Phase I of the project – covering the development of basic infrastructure, the Presidential Palace complex, key ministerial buildings and residences for civil servants, has fallen behind schedule, thus forcing President Joko Widodo to postpone his plan to move to IKN. Notwithstanding written pledges by international investors in the IKN project, there has not been much realisation on the ground. Most of the ongoing investment still rely on the State’s budget and on local players. The resignations of the Head of IKN Authority and his deputy have aggravated the sense of uncertainty over the future of the project.
It will be very challenging to overcome the vicious circle of inter-connected problems – investors are wary of low demand arising from insufficient population density, which is unlikely to improve quickly unless there is a steady build-up of facilities and connectivities with other urban centres, which in turn requires faster injection of investment funds. It is important for the government to avoid rushing the IKN project. Relocation of state personnel without good preparation will have an adverse impact on their performance. It also needs to carefully consider the financial and non-financial implications of various incentives given to investors and civil servants.
Iran
(Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies) Iran has witnessed a significant political change with the election of the new “reformist” President Masoud Pezeshkian, following the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in western Iran. Therefore, examining the contours of change in Iran’s foreign policy under the new president is crucial. Iran’s foreign policy holds greater salience as the country is an influential player in both regional and international affairs, possessing significant geopolitical weight and influence due to its geographical location, economic capabilities, and human resources. Furthermore, it is involved in numerous complex regional and international issues that impact its foreign relations. The victory of the “reformist” president, following years of “conservative” dominance in the presidency, raises several questions: what is the extent of the president’s influence on various aspects of foreign policy including its substance, formulation, implementation and outcomes? What are the anticipated features, challenges, and opportunities for the new president’s foreign policy? Additionally, what new achievements can President Pezeshkian bring to the realm of foreign relations, particularly concerning the three main contentious issues: nuclear negotiations, the ballistic missile program, and support for loyalist groups? Finally, developments in Iran’s relations with the Gulf states and neighboring countries will be closely observed during this new period.
Libya – South Africa
(Peter Fabricius – Institute for Security Studies) Were 95 Libyans really undergoing military training at the Milites Dei Academy in South Africa’s eastern Mpumalanga province, and if so, for what purpose? Or were they just learning to be commercial security guards? This remains something of a mystery. Which should not be surprising, given the complexity of their home country. The men were arrested by police on 26 July and appeared in court three days later, charged with misrepresenting the purpose of their visit to South Africa in their visa applications.
In Libya, everything comes down to military muscle | ISS Africa
Malaysia
(Tham Siew Yean, Rebecca Neo – ISEAS) With climate change and decarbonisation at the forefront of the global agenda, rare earth elements have taken centre stage in the move to a more sustainable future. This group of 17 elements are critical components in clean energy technologies and products central to decarbonisation. Projections from the International Energy Agency indicate that the rush for more clean energy applications and demand for electric vehicles and their batteries have driven up the demand for these critical minerals. And Malaysia is well-placed to capitalise on this increased demand.
Mexico
(Council on Foreign Relations) Mexican drug cartels are leading suppliers of cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine, and other illicit narcotics to the United States. The cartels and the drug trade fuel rampant corruption and violence in Mexico, contributing to tens of thousands of homicides in the country each year. Since Mexico launched a war on the cartels in 2006, the United States has provided it with billions of dollars in security and counternarcotics assistance.
Mexico’s Long War: Drugs, Crime, and the Cartels | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Middle Corridor
(Nikoloz Khatiashvili, Mariam Tsiskadze – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Dependence on Russian energy has exposed vulnerabilities, necessitating strategic solutions. Europe’s overreliance on Russian natural gas in a period of heightened geopolitical tension has raised justifiable concerns about supply disruptions and price volatility. The need to transition to renewable energy adds another layer of complexity to the challenges. To address them, Europe must diversify energy sources, enhance energy efficiency, and invest in renewable infrastructure. The Middle Corridor (MC), a network of roads, rails, and sea lanes that connects Europe with Central Asia, offers alternative energy transport routes, and promotes diversification, economic cooperation, and geopolitical stability. All this strengthens European energy security and resilience.
The Middle Corridor | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Middle East
(Johanna Moore, Kelly Campa, Carolyn Moorman, Alexandra Braverman, Siddhant Kishore, Annika Ganzeveld, Katherine Wells, Ria Reddy, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War)
Iranian Retaliation: Unspecified US officials told Axios on August 5 that the US intelligence community expects Iran and its Axis of Resistance to conduct two waves of attacks in its retaliation against Israel for the death of Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. Iran and its Axis of Resistance would likely use the first wave of the attack on Israel to assess Israeli air defenses in preparation for the second wave of the attack.
Iranian Attack Preparation: Unspecified US officials cited by the Wall Street Journal on August 5 reported that Iran has begun moving missile launchers and conducting military drills, possibly in preparation for the attack. These drills may be intended to move forces and missile batteries into position for Iran’s retaliatory strike on Israel.
Nasrallah Speech: Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah claimed that Hezbollah is fighting to prevent Israel from “eliminating the Palestinian cause,” which obfuscates Hezbollah’s goals and Iran’s theory for destroying the Israeli state.
Hamas Succession: Hamas selected Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip and October 7 architect Yahya Sinwar as the next leader of Hamas’ Political Bureau on August 6. Sinwar exercised significant influence within Hamas after October 7 given his command of forces and control of hostages on the ground. He repeatedly resisted pressure to moderate Hamas’ ceasefire position from both his superiors, such as Haniyeh and others, and his military subordinates in the Gaza Strip. Sinwar’s appointment also marks the continued ascendence of pro-Iran elements within Hamas, and it will likely accelerate Hamas’ descent deeper into Iran’s orbit.
Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi militia al Thawriyyun claimed responsibility for the rocket attack that injured at least five US personnel at Ain al Assad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq, on August 5.
Iran Update, August 6, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Matthew Levitt – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) After nearly 10 months of constant rocket and drone attacks across the Israel-Lebanon border, Israel and Hezbollah stand at the brink of full-scale war for the first time since 2006. But more dire than Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal is the threat that it will launch an Oct. 7-style ground incursion into Israel.
(Danny Citrinowicz – INSS) According to various reports, Iran, Hezbollah, and possibly other members of the axis of resistance intend to attack Israel in the coming days, as revenge for the assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr. In the Iranian view, Tehran should choose a response that will rebalance the “deterrence equation” vis-à-vis Israel but that will not lead to an unwanted war with Israel and especially with the United States. Iran is willing to risk escalation in order to draw a “red line” for Israel’s actions, but it’s likely that Iran hopes that by aiming its missiles at military areas, possibly in the Tel Aviv or Haifa regions, it will be possible to avoid a wider campaign. In Iran’s view, the damage to its sovereignty and especially the humiliation it suffered by the elimination of Haniyeh in Tehran obliges it to respond.
Preparing for Attack: Iran’s Obligation, Differences of Opinion, and Fear of Escalation | INSS
NATO
(Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies) The recent NATO summit in Washington celebrated the alliance’s 75th anniversary. During the summit, NATO allies highlighted the historic accession of Finland and Sweden. Despite certain divergences, the summit’s core focus was on aiding Ukraine and enhancing deterrence against Russia. The summit emphasized unity in supporting Ukraine, transitioning European security responsibilities to European capitals, and strengthening defense cooperation with Indo-Pacific allies. Key initiatives with the latter included building a robust defense industrial base, advancing cyber defense, countering disinformation, and technological projects to deter challenges from within and beyond the region. The summit underscored rising concerns about China’s expanding global influence and Russia’s persistent resilience in the ongoing war in Ukraine. European allies are cautious about escalating tensions between China and the United States, prioritizing economic relations with China, while still recognizing Russia as the main threat.
Pacific Banking Forum
(Jonathan Ping and Peter Forau – Australian Institute of International Affairs) In pursuit of their own development, Pacific Island Countries (PICs) may seek the most efficient and effective outcome, which may be a Chinese-orientated banking system. When the US and Australia, in consultation with PICs, announced the launch of the Pacific Banking Forum in October 2023, the goal was “… to maintain access to enduring banking services.” In the preceding years, small market sizes, low profitability, and rising transnational crime have resulted in market failure, which delinked these states from the global political economy as Western banks fled the market.
Philippines – China
(Rommel Ong – Lowy The Interpreter) The failure of the US Navy and the American maritime industry to keep pace with China has created a disparity in naval capabilities in East Asia, which has allowed China to dominate the South China Sea and prey on neighbouring coastal states. In the West Philippine Sea, the conditions are even more acute. Given the Philippines’ limited navy and coast guard vessels, the country is regularly confronted by encroaching Chinese maritime forces.
A respite for the Sierra Madre, but Philippines-China tensions remain | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Alexander Baunov – Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center) The exchange is not just the end of the story about the release of certain people, but also the beginning of a story about an injection of fresh blood into the Russian opposition abroad, and its relationship both with independent Russians inside the country, and with the outside world.
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Davit Gasparyan, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War)
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a series of cross border raids into Kursk Oblast on August 6.
Russian milbloggers largely dismissed the supposed Ukrainian raids into Kursk Oblast, and Ukrainian officials have largely yet to comment on the raids.
Russian Security Council Secretary and former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu heavily overexaggerated Russian advances in Ukraine since mid-June 2024.
Russian officials continue coordination and military cooperation with Iran ahead of the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel out of concern for Russian interests in the region. NOTE: a version of this text appears in ISW-CTP’s August 6 Iran Update.
Armenia continues to abstain from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Russian forces advanced east of Toretsk.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reportedly issued a formal reply denying a request from the wives of the mobilized Russian personnel to meet with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.
(Peter Dickinson – Atlantic Council) There was much pomp and pageantry on display recently in former Russian imperial capital Saint Petersburg as Vladimir Putin presided over the country’s annual Navy Day festivities. In truth, however, Putin and his assembled admirals had very little to celebrate. Over the past year, Russia’s once-vaunted Black Sea Fleet has been decimated by Ukrainian drones and missiles in what must rank as the most remarkable series of naval defeats in modern military history.
Russia’s Black Sea defeats get flushed down Vladimir Putin’s memory hole – Atlantic Council
(Ilan Berman – The National Interest) Since the start of its war on Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has experienced a massive population exodus. Ideological objectors, political opponents, and those simply seeking to avoid conscription have sought the shelter of other nations. Accurate data about this cohort, however, is in short supply, complicated both by Kremlin propaganda and by the fact that some of these exiles have since made their way back to Russia.
Putin’s ‘War of Choice’ in Ukraine Could Mean Russia’s ‘Outright Ruin’ | The National Interest
Russia – West
(Yulia Mineeva – Chatham House) On 1 August, Western countries and Russia conducted the largest prisoner swap since the Cold War. Through unprecedented international cooperation involving Germany, the US, Norway, Slovenia, Poland, and Turkey, it was possible to extract four Americans, five Germans, and seven Russians from Russian prisons, who were convicted on trumped-up charges in Russia and Belarus. These were not only difficult negotiations but also a tough moral and ethical choice, which Russia deliberately imposed on the West. Although the prisoner exchange can rightly be considered a victory for diplomacy, we should not hastily declare that justice has prevailed. The Russian side held hostages to free their hitmen, spies, and hackers, while the West made a tough decision in favour of the freedom and lives of innocent people, not only their citizens but Russian nationals as well.
Sarawak and Brunei
(Norshahril Saat – FULCRUM) Sarawak and Brunei, as neighbouring entities, offer interesting insights through the divergence in their pluralist and conservative trajectories. This Long Read considers the significance of political culture, demography, and religious elites’ training as factors contributing to contemporary trends.
Two Borneo Neighbours on Diversity: Comparing Religious Authority in Brunei and Sarawak | FULCRUM
Senegal
(Aissatou Kanté, Paulin Maurice Toupane – Institute for Security Studies) The socio-political crisis that began in 1982 in Casamance, southern Senegal, is the oldest armed conflict in West Africa. It pits the government against the Mouvement des forces démocratiques de Casamance (MFDC), an armed rebellion now divided into three main factions demanding independence for the region. Significant progress has been made in resolving this conflict, particularly since 2012. That has allowed the state’s security priorities to shift to eastern Senegal, a border area with Mali where violent extremist groups operate. But achieving a definitive resolution to the Casamance conflict requires a holistic approach that considers the different aspects of the crisis.
Can Senegal get the Casamance peace process over the finish line? | ISS Africa
Syria
(Burcu Ozcelik – RUSI) Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 24 July on the heels of reports that Turkey and a handful of European states are reconsidering their engagement with Syria. The EU suspended relations with Damascus in 2011 following the outbreak of the civil war, but in late July eight EU foreign ministers, including those of Italy and Austria, called on the EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell to ‘review and assess’ the bloc’s approach to Syria after 13 years of conflict. On 25 July, Italy became the first G7 member to announce it would restore diplomatic relations with Syria. This move signifies a shift that echoes the Arab world’s normalisation of Assad last year.
Taiwan
(ThinkChina) Honda Mami, a Japanese student in Taiwan, notes that university academics should be politically neutral, but those in Taiwan seem to be blatantly showing their political inclinations in apparent efforts to influence their students.
The politicisation of Taiwan’s university academics (thinkchina.sg)
Timor Leste – Australia
(Jade Kingston – Australian Institute of International Affairs) For Timor-Leste’s economy, economic diversification is crucial to avoid fallout from a depleting Petroleum Fund. As one of the nation’s closest neighbours, Australia has a unique opportunity and responsibility to help promote and develop Timor’s tourism economy.
UAE – China
(Paul Weisko – INSS) The Emiratis and the Chinese concluded their second fighter exercise in Xinjiang, called Falcon Shield, which began on July 11, 2024. The planes participating in this exercise are Mirage 2000s from the UAE and J-10s and J-16s from China. Observers suggested that Taiwan scenarios were practiced, given that Taiwan also uses Mirage 2000s. According to the Emirati MOD’s X account, “this exercise aims to exchange experiences, raise the operational efficiency of both sides, and focus on implementing joint operations to raise the readiness of the participating forces and optimally employ various capabilities to confront air threats.”
Falcon Shield – China and the UAE fighter exercise: Insights | INSS
UK – Indo Pacific
(Eugene R.L. Tan, William Choong – FULCRUM) The new UK government has kept relatively mum on its approach to the Indo-Pacific. Following his ascent to the premiership in early July, Prime Minister Keir Starmer busied himself with resetting ties with Europe in the form of the European Political Community (a loose grouping of countries in and around the European Union) and participating in a NATO summit in Washington.
UK and the Indo-Pacific: Get Real about Progressive Realism | FULCRUM
USA
(Tarsi Dunlop – German Marshall Fund of the United States) An $85 million Biden administration grant appropriation is designed to encourage cities to “identify and remove barriers to affordable housing production and preservation, and lower housing costs”. The funds are being distributed to 21 US communities to increase local housing supply by dismantling zoning restrictions, abolishing parking-spot minimums, renovating inadequate infrastructure, and eliminating outdated land use policies, among other measures.
Building Housing for All | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
(Gregory C. Allen, Isaac Goldston – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On September 22, 2021, General Mark D. Kelly, then commander of U.S. Air Combat Command, gave a speech with a grim recurring message: “Extensive analysis unambiguously shows that the current [U.S. Air Force] fighter fleet will not succeed” in plausible scenarios for a conflict with China in the Taiwan Strait. Some of the extensive analysis that Kelly referred to was conducted by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, which has since made its analysis public. The Mitchell Institute found that by 2022 the Air Force fleet was less than half the size it was in 1990, and roughly 80 percent of Air Force fighters had already exceeded their designed service lives. In the Air Force fleet, the average fighter—not the design model, the actual aircraft—is about 30 years old. According to the Mitchell Institute report, these aging aircraft are increasingly neither mission capable nor safe to fly, “because of their advanced age and systems and structures that are failing at increased rates.” Purchases of new aircraft are not keeping up with the pace of the problem. The fleet has been getting older and smaller each year.
(Naveed Ahmad – Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies) A week is a lifetime in politics, said Harold Wilson, former British premier. On June 13, a popular presidential candidate survives an assassination attempt. Within days, his rival quits the race to quell an ensuing rebellion, putting his weight behind his top lieutenant who gains widespread acceptance and raises extensive funds too. Unless there are more surprises in store, the stage for the US presidential election is all set. Donald John Trump will now face Kamala Devi Harris instead of Joe Robinette Biden. The current US vice president will become the official nominee of the Democratic Party on August 19, coronated to the slot more or less similar to what President Gerald Ford had predicted in 1989. She may announce her running mate then as well. James David Vance, a first-time senator from Ohio, is the Republican candidate for the vice president. Trump, who entered the Milwaukee convention hall with James Brown’s song, “It’s a man’s, man’s, man’s world,” becomes the only presidential candidate to face two female rivals.
The Thorny Path to the White House | International Institute for Iranian Studies (rasanah-iiis.org)
USA – Africa
(Ronak Gopaldas – Institute for Security Studies) As America’s election race enters the home stretch, investors and African policymakers are assessing what the November outcome might mean for the continent. Amid an assassination attempt, President Joe Biden’s decision not to run, and a politically polarised environment, Donald Trump is still leading – although polls show Kamala Harris is closing the gap. What would a second Trump presidency look like, and how could it affect African countries in terms of economics and trade?
How would Trump 2.0 impact African economies? | ISS Africa
USA – Pacific
(Isabelle Zhu-Maguire – Lowy The Interpreter) In 2022, Vice President Kamala Harris announced via video call into the Pacific Islands Forum that the Pacific was going to get a “huge” aid boost from the United States, tripling assistance to $600 million. Instead of the applause the Biden administration likely thought they would receive for such an initiative, the media headlines pointed to the history of American neglect in the region.
Looking back at the Biden administration’s Pacific strategy | Lowy Institute
