From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Australia, China-Taiwan, Kazakhstan-China, Libya, Malaysia, Russia, US-South Korea, US Tariffs
Australia
(Afeeya Akhand – The Strategist) Australia must do more to empower communities of colour in its response to climate change. In late February, the Multicultural Leadership Initiative hosted its Our Common Future summits in Sydney and Melbourne. These summits focused on the importance of multicultural climate advocacy, the disproportionate impact of climate change on people of colour and the need to build climate resilience at a grassroots level. – Centring people of colour to close the climate justice gap | The Strategist
(Brendan Walker-Munro – The Strategist) After copping criticism for not releasing the report for nearly eight months, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese released the Independent Intelligence Review on 28 March. It makes for a heck of a read. The review makes 67 sweeping recommendations to overhaul Australia’s National Intelligence Community (NIC) on everything from legislation to oversight, open-source intelligence and investment. But hidden in plain sight in the review is a surprising recommendation that Treasury lead a review relating to ‘economic security’. – The surprise of the Independent Intelligence Review: economic security | The Strategist
(Jennifer Parker – The Strategist) Since the announcement in September 2021 that Australia intended to acquire nuclear-powered submarines in partnership with Britain and the United States, the plan has received significant media attention, scepticism and criticism. There are four major risks to the AUKUS national enterprise: the political will of all partners; delivery schedule; the cost of acquiring and sustaining the capability (including its impact on Australia’s broader Defence budget); and workforce challenges, both for uniformed personnel and within the submarine-building industry. – Australia’s plan for acquiring nuclear-powered submarines is on track | The Strategist
China – Taiwan
(Sophie Wushuang Yi – The Interpreter) China’s People’s Liberation Army this week deployed the aircraft carrier Shandong alongside 19 warships in military exercises encircling Taiwan. Initially conducted without an official codename – a departure from previous practice – these drills were later designated “Strait Thunder-2025A”, along with a signal of potential follow-up operations later this year. These exercises occurred against a backdrop of deteriorating cross-Strait relations. Taiwan’s Lai Ching-te last month labelled China a “foreign hostile force” and announced plans to re-establish Taiwan’s peacetime military court system, marking a significant rhetorical escalation. The PLA exercises featured live-fire drills, simulated blockade operations, and unprecedented aerial incursions, occurring around the anniversary of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, a key US policy milestone. – What’s in a name? China tests Trump’s resolve on Taiwan | Lowy Institute
Kazakhstan – China
(Yunis Sharifli – The Jamestown Foundation) Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a strategic hub for critical minerals, leveraging its vast reserves of copper, zinc, lead, and nickel to attract foreign investment and diversify economic partnerships amid growing global demand and geopolitical competition. Deepening cooperation with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is bringing Kazakhstan technical and economic benefits, including job creation, technology transfer, and new export channels. Cooperation with the PRC in Kazakhstan’s critical mineral industry is raising concerns over economic dependency and limited control over strategic resources. Kazakhstan aims to balance PRC involvement by actively pursuing partnerships with the United States, European Union, and Japan, while incorporating local content and knowledge transfer into future agreements. – Kazakhstan and People’s Republic of China Collaborate in Critical Minerals Sector – Jamestown
Libya
(Yaseen Rashed – Atlantic Council) Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced in January that the country will “soon” hold a public tender for exploring key gas and oil plots, the first such bid since 2007. The upcoming bidding round could allow Libya to stabilize and grow its oil output while attracting foreign direct investments into the country’s energy sector, a vital arm representing about 60 percent of the Libyan GDP, 94 percent of its exports, and 97 percent of the government revenues. Even still, there is room for growth—a majority of Libya’s territorial waters and 70 percent of its land area remain unexplored and are projected to hold vast basins of petroleum and gas reserves. But the round is set to occur against the backdrop of a decade-old stalemate between the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) and Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). Since 2014, the warring factions have failed to agree on a pathway for national elections and a political reconciliation process. The crisis is one that the US and Italy may be uniquely postured, and incentivized, to quell. Absent a thawing of that frozen stalemate, Tripoli is unlikely to attract an influx of energy investment. Even more, the stalemate risks plunging Libya into a deeper web of maligned foreign intervention. Both Washington and Rome could leverage their global positions to combat the country’s rabid kleptocracy and facilitate a Libyan-led technocratic political process. The carrot, of course, for this US-Italian stewardship is the opportunity for greater cooperation in countering Russia and China’s growing ambitions in Libya. – Libya’s political deadlock endures. There is a case for Trump and Meloni to challenge the status quo. – Atlantic Council
Malaysia
(Doris Liew – The Interpreter) In the cut-throat world of semiconductors, it seems Malaysia has carved out a special niche. As a subcontractor in the assembly, testing, and packaging of semiconductor chips, Malaysia has positioned itself as a global leader in backend chip processing. However, Malaysia continues to play a relatively minor role in the more advanced segments of the semiconductor value chain, particularly in areas such as advanced packaging technologies and integrated circuit design, domains that remain firmly dominated by the United States, Taiwan, and China. In light of Malaysia’s ambitions under its 2024 National Semiconductor Strategy to ascend the value chain and its recent acquisition of UK-based ARM chip design blueprints, a critical question emerges: can Malaysia’s semiconductor industry overcome its downstream dependency and cut a path towards upstream capabilities? – Can Malaysia’s semiconductor industry stream upwards? | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin is now actively debating what Moscow should do if and when Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine ends, focusing first and foremost on how to reintegrate veterans lest they spark unrest and even chaos on their return. Moscow is also concerned about a much larger set of problems that will arise if the war winds down, including coping with a new opening to the West and dealing with pent-up demand for things postponed during the war. Russian officials are divided about the best course forward, with some calling for concessions to win support and others favoring more repression at home and aggression abroad to maintain power. The settlement Putin gets will likely determine which side wins out. – Kremlin Divided About What to Do Inside Russia if and When War Against Ukraine Ends – Jamestown
US – South Korea
(Victor Cha – Center for Strategic and International Studies) The Constitutional Court’s decision on impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol this week comes on the heels of 18 weeks of political turmoil in South Korea that has ground the government to a halt. While the decision closes one chapter, it opens another one of bitter polarization and political infighting. The biggest casualty of this unprecedented domestic crisis, however, may be happening across the Pacific. The confluence of months-long political stasis in Seoul and the start of the second Trump administration has precipitated a quiet crisis in the U.S.-Korea alliance that neither side will admit to. – The Quiet Crisis in the U.S.-Korea Alliance
US Tariffs
(Barath Harithas, Kyle Meng, Evan Brown, Catharine Mouradian – Center for Strategic and International Studies) On April 2, 2025—a date President Trump proclaimed “Liberation Day”—the administration announced the most sweeping tariff hike since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, the 1930 law best remembered for triggering a global trade war and deepening the Great Depression. A universal 10 percent tariff on all imported goods will take effect on April 5, followed by further tariffs on dozens of named countries, set to begin on April 9. Canada and Mexico are largely exempted from this round of tariffs, at least for the time being, and previously announced sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos, along with anticipated tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, copper, and lumber, will be assessed separately and not stacked onto the new tariffs. – “Liberation Day” Tariffs Explained
(Inu Manak – Council on Foreign Relations) President Donald Trump promoted his much-awaited tariff announcement as “Liberation Day,” but there is nothing about his current spate of actions that improves economic freedom for Americans. In fact, he is subjugating American businesses and consumers with a 10 percent across-the-board tax on nearly everything they purchase from abroad, in addition to increasing tariffs against specific trading partners by up to 50 percent, claiming that these are “reciprocal” duties. – Trump’s Liberation Day Attempts to Put Americans in Shackles | Council on Foreign Relations
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) should have been their first clue.Global investors’ repeated miscalculation of US President Donald Trump’s far-reaching intentions regarding tariffs has left them playing a chaotic game of catch-up. The result has been four trillion dollars in value wiped off the S&P 500 since its peak in February. That was before the further losses that will come now, as investors come to terms with the president’s determination to undo an eighty-year era of globalization and replace it with, as today’s lead Wall Street Journal editorial put it, “Trump’s New Protectionist Age.” – Why the markets keep getting Trump wrong – Atlantic Council
(Atlantic Council) “Everybody sit back, take a deep breath, don’t immediately retaliate, let’s see where this goes.” That was the message US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shared with foreign countries following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a raft of new tariffs on April 2. But as the White House prepares to impose 10 percent tariffs on all US trading partners, and steeper tariffs of as much as 50 percent on some sixty countries, not all foreign capitals may heed Bessent’s call for calm. In fact, some have already signaled that they will retaliate. – Experts React: How the world is responding to Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs – Atlantic Council
