From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: ASEAN, Australia, Indonesia, Indo-Pacific, Japan, Myanmar, Somalia-Ethiopia, South Sudan, Syria, Taiwan, Thailand
ASEAN
(Melinda Martinus – FULCRUM) The phenomenon of brain drain has recently sparked debate on social media in Southeast Asia. While the emigration of highly skilled professionals highlights the region’s growing talent and global mobility, it also poses a challenge. As talents leave, home countries risk losing valuable knowledge. This trend raises a key question: Can Southeast Asia sustain its economic growth while losing its top talents? – ASEAN Can Help to Address Brain Drain in Southeast Asia | FULCRUM
Australia
(Todd Newett – The Strategist) Australia has plenty of room to spend more on defence. History shows that 2.9 percent of GDP is no great burden in ordinary times, so pushing spending to 3.0 percent in dangerous times is very achievable. Budget watchers are quick to cite difficulties amid current pressures on revenue and expenditure. But historical data is more revealing than a nearsighted view down in the weeds of fiscal policy. Australia just isn’t trying. For all the talk of deteriorating strategic circumstances, the defence share of GDP has been flat for half a decade, wandering between 1.9 and 2.0 percent. – 3 percent of GDP for defence is no stretch. We did 2.9 percent in the Cold War | The Strategist
Indonesia
(Maria Monica Wihardja, Chatib Basri – FULCRUM) Indonesia’s middle class is the backbone of its economy whose growth relies mostly on household consumption. The middle class accounted for 38.3 per cent of total household consumption in 2024. They also pay a significant share of all indirect tax revenues and help create jobs as business owners. There has, however, been some debate about whether Indonesia’s middle class is shrinking or growing. It is important to get the narrative right. – Growing or Shrinking? How Indonesia’s Middle Class is Really Doing | FULCRUM
Indo-Pacific
(Ravi Nayyar – The Strategist) The fragmentation of cyber regulation in the Indo-Pacific is not just inconvenient; it is a strategic vulnerability. In recent years, governments across the Indo-Pacific, including Australia, have moved to reform their regulatory frameworks for cyber resilience. Though well-intentioned, inadequate coordination with regional partners and stakeholder consultations have created a situation of regulatory fragmentation—the existence of multiple regulatory frameworks covering the same subject matter—within and among Indo-Pacific jurisdictions. – Red tape that tears us apart: regulation fragments Indo-Pacific cyber resilience | The Strategist
Japan
(East Asia Forum) Japan is seeking to find balance in its foreign policy in the shadow of China’s rise, aiming for equality and autonomy within the Japan–US alliance while seeking to improve China-Japan relations without weakening deterrence against Beijing. After the deterioration in relations that accelerated through the pandemic, both countries are working on diplomatic initiatives such as official state visits, visa-free regimes and multiple-entry tourist visas to change their trajectory. But to overcome security concerns and negative perceptions of each country in the other, a major reconception of the bilateral relationship is needed, centring on common global challenges such as climate change and the maintenance of an open global trading system. – Japan repositions its diplomacy towards China | East Asia Forum
Myanmar
(Manny Maung – The Interpreter) In a show of what appeared to be humble pie, Myanmar’s junta boss acknowledged that the scale of Friday’s earthquake would be beyond Myanmar’s capabilities and “invited” an international response to the country’s earthquake disaster. Was it sincere? Not at all. An earthquake measuring 7.7 on the Richter scale ripped through Myanmar on 28 March at 12.50pm local time. The earthquake’s epicentre was Sagaing Region in central Myanmar, and in an area where some of Myanmar’s largest strongholds of resistance to the Myanmar military have been located since a military coup in 2021. The devastation of the initial earthquake has been followed by a series of strong aftershocks that have hampered local search and rescue efforts while bringing fresh terror to survivors. The death toll is reported to have surpassed 1600, but that figure is likely to jump dramatically once more is known about the devastation wrought in regions outside metropolitan areas. – In the aftermath of Myanmar’s earthquake, reports emerge of the junta attacking its own people | Lowy Institute
Somalia – Ethiopia
(Emirates Policy Center) The Somalia-Ethiopia rapprochement following the signing of the Ankara Declaration in late 2024 represents a substantial shift in alliance dynamics within the Horn of Africa. This development carries significant geopolitical and security implications, potentially altering the balance of power and influencing key actors. Ethiopia is likely to navigate a delicate balance in its ties with both Somalia and Somaliland, showing keenness to contain the first, while maintain its ties with the latter. Ethiopia might seek to bridge the gap between the two and calm down tensions between Somali elites in the south and the north to serve its strategic interests. Somalia is not likely to abandon its strong ties with Egypt and Eritrea. However, its recent rapprochement with Addis Ababa could lead to a more balanced foreign policy, reducing its involvement in regional power struggles. – Emirates Policy Center | Ethiopia-Somalia Rapprochement and its Potential Geopolitical Implications
South Sudan
(Crisis Group) Daniel Akech and Alan Boswell speak about escalating violence across South Sudan, President Salva Kiir’s dismissal of both loyalists and opposition leaders, the impact of neighbouring Sudan’s conflict and hope of averting a return to civil war in the world’s youngest country. – South Sudan on the Brink of Another War | Crisis Group
Syria
(Crisis Group) An accord between the interim government in Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces could mark a turn for the better in the country’s post-Assad transition. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain what the deal contains and what it means for the region. – A Glimmer of Peace in Syria’s North East | Crisis Group
Taiwan
(Meng Kit Tang – The Strategist) Taiwanese chipmaking giant TSMC’s plan to build a plant in the United States looks like a move made at the behest of local officials to solidify US support for Taiwan. However, it may eventually lessen commitment from Washington since it is a step toward US domestic production of semiconductors, reducing reliance on Taiwanese supply. The US’s friends, particularly Japan and South Korea, may make similar moves as they have much the same incentive as Taiwan to strengthen relations with Washington. For Taiwan, semiconductors have long been more than an economic asset; they have been a strategic shield. The island’s role as the world’s most advanced chip producer has created an unspoken security guarantee, as its survival matters to the global economy. But as TSMC shifts production to the US, that shield may begin to weaken. – TSMC’s $100 billion bet: strengthening ties or weakening Taiwan’s leverage? | The Strategist
Thailand
(Eugene Mark – FULCRUM) The Thai government has announced a plan for a 90-kilometre land bridge to connect the Andaman Sea to the Gulf of Thailand. Estimated to cost USD 36 billion, this project aims to provide an alternative to the Malacca Strait shipping route, and attract a mix of private-sector investors and public-private partnerships. It involves constructing deep-sea ports at Ranong on the Andaman coast and Chumphon on the Gulf of Thailand, which will be connected by a new motorway and a dual-track railway. Ranong Port is expected to handle approximately 19.4 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), while Chumphon Port is projected to manage 13.8 million TEUs. Once completed, the land bridge is projected to generate up to 280,000 jobs and boost GDP growth by 1.5 per cent through expanded export opportunities. The first phase is set for completion by 2030, with the entire project targeted for conclusion by 2039. – Thailand’s Land Bridge: Navigating Geopolitical and Investor Concerns | FULCRUM
(Alexandra Colombier – FULCRUM) In Thailand, criminal networks run by Chinese nationals are a subject of concern. Their portrayal on social media is not only framed as a societal problem but also reimagined as a cultural reference. Instead of simply reporting on criminal activities, social media users reinterpret them in digital spaces, turning crime into a stylised narrative where aesthetics, humour, and performativity intertwine. While similar content appears across platforms, TikTok’s affordances — algorithmic amplification and highly personalised content feeds — position it at the epicentre of this trend. An analysis of the #จีนเทา (Jin Thao, Grey Chinese) hashtag using the TikTok application programme interface (API) reveals how users can transform social problems into cultural artefacts, shaping how young Thais perceive and relate to criminal networks. The term Grey Chinese refers to Chinese nationals involved in illicit business activities, such as running casinos, money laundering, human trafficking, and scam call centres. – Grey Chinese Trend on Thai TikTok: From Criminal Networks to Digital Aesthetic | FULCRUM
