From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Brunei, China, Climate Action, France-Philippines, GCC-Afghanistan, India, India-Mauritius, ISIS, Philippines, Turkiye-Indonesia, US
Brunei
(Ly Slesman, Chang-Yau Hoon – East Asia Forum) Brunei’s economy grew by 2.4 per cent in 2024, with similar growth projected for 2025, driven by a rebound in the oil-and-gas sector (O&G) and an expansion in non-O&G sectors. To continue on its track to sustainable growth using economic diversification, Brunei needs to focus on sectors with high comparative advantages and implement supportive policy and structural reforms. – Glowing gains for Brunei despite diversification growing pains | East Asia Forum
China
(Atul Kumar – Observer Research Foundation) On 5 March 2025, the Chinese government announced its national defence budget at US$ 249 billion (CNY 1.81 trillion) for the year. As the second-largest defence budget worldwide, it marks an annual increase of 7.2 percent but remains below 1.5 percent of China’s GDP. Notably, this defence budget outstrips the combined military spending of regional powers, including India, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, underscoring China’s capacity for regional dominance. The budget, however, excludes certain expenditures, namely, weapon imports, People’s Armed Police (PAP) funding and research and development, leading critics to argue that it represents only one-third to half of China’s actual defence expenditure. This paper argues that China’s consistent GDP growth continues to provide substantial resources to its armed forces. If the trend persists, even with less than 1.5 percent allocation, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will have ample capability to expand its influence across the Indo-Pacific, if not beyond. – Chinese Defence Budget 2025: Lower Allocation, Bigger Impact
Climate Action
(Observer Research Foundation) India’s cities are at the epicentre of rapid urbanisation and intensifying climate risks. Urban climate impacts are escalating, straining already inadequate infrastructure and deepening existing inequalities. At the heart of this crisis is a critical yet often overlooked truth: climate change is not gender-neutral. Women, particularly those from marginalised and low-income communities, bear the brunt of climate-induced disruptions while having limited access to decision-making spaces that shape urban resilience. As groundwater sources dwindle, women in informal settlements spend a disproportionate amount of time fetching water for their household. They are also more vulnerable to heat stress, given their overrepresentation in informal labour sectors such as domestic work, street vending, and construction, where exposure to extreme temperatures and air pollution directly impacts their health. When floods and disasters displace families, women’s access to sanitation, reproductive healthcare, and personal safety is often compromised. Mobility constraints, unsafe public transport, and the absence of gender-sensitive urban planning further restrict their economic opportunities. Yet, despite being among the most affected, women are rarely seen as agents of change in climate action. – Making Climate Action Count: Gender in the Mainstream of Urban Climate Strategies
(Aude Darnal, Diogo Ives, Valeri Onu, Prabhat Upadhyaya, Griffin Stibor – Stimson Center) The second Donald Trump administration is already having a significant impact on global efforts to address the climate crisis. In the early days of his second term, President Trump withdrew the United States from several international commitments — including the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization — and suspending U.S. international assistance through the Agency for International Development. These decisions pose serious challenges to the international climate response, particularly as most of the world remains committed to a green transition and vulnerable countries are urgently seeking international financing. While the Joe Biden administration did not meet global expectations on climate action, it was still considered to be an issue of high priority. In contrast, the current administration has signaled disengagement from efforts to combat climate change, both in terms of financing and advancing reforms within the Bretton Woods institutions. Within this context, countries and civil society actors committed to advancing climate action must now consider how to operate without U.S. contributions and possibly in the face of active U.S. resistance. With South Africa presiding over the G-20 and Brazil hosting both COP30 and the BRICS summit this year, Global South countries have a rare opportunity to set bold climate agendas and reshape engagement with their Northern counterparts. – Facing the Future: Global South Climate Priorities in Trump’s Second Term • Stimson Center
France – Philippines
(Céline Pajon – East Asia Forum) With shared interests in promoting international law and sustainable development, France and the Philippines should strengthen their maritime cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Through bilateral agreements, expanded joint exercises and the exchange of best practices, both nations can enhance maritime domain awareness, counter security threats and develop blue economy initiatives. This deeper collaboration would reinforce stability and environmental stewardship across the region. – France and the Philippines should anchor their maritime partnership | East Asia Forum
GCC – Afghanistan
(Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco – Stimson Center) Since the Taliban seized power over all of Afghanistan in August 2021, the country’s de facto rulers have sought to solidify their grip by asserting firm control over state institutions and intensifying engagement with neighbors and foreign powers. The policy has had some success. While the Taliban are still not recognized by the UN and many member states as Afghanistan’s legitimate government, several countries in Central Asia and the Middle East as well as Turkey, Japan, India, Russia, and China, have re-established a diplomatic presence in Kabul. Additionally, the Taliban have gained control of an increasing number of Afghan embassies, replacing personnel who had been appointed by U.S.-backed governments. – Pragmatism Shapes Growing GCC Engagement With the Taliban • Stimson Center
India
(Ramanath Jha – Observer Research Foundation) The Delhi elections, conducted in February 2025, launched a new Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government to power. The mandate delivered by the Delhi voters for the incumbent state government was clear and overwhelming. It found additional comfort and support from a friendly government of India, and thereby, as they say, crafting a “double-engine” government. Furthermore, a few days after the Delhi elections, three councillors switched parties to join the BJP, giving the party a majority in the town hall of the Delhi Municipal Corporation (DMC). This essentially meant that, in political parlance, Delhi has now a ‘triple-engine government’ with the same majority party coalition at the central, state and local levels, with no obstacles in delivering the assurances given to the people of Delhi. – Managing Delhi’s Future: Obstacles and Opportunities for the New Government
(Manish Vaid – Observer Research Foundation) On a cold January night in 2025, as the world tuned in to Donald Trump’s second inaugural address, energy markets braced for a familiar storm. “America will never be held hostage by foreign energy,” he declared, echoing his first term’s aggressive rhetoric on energy independence. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government was charting a different course, embracing strategic autonomy by diversifying India’s energy sources while maintaining key partnerships with the US, Russia, and the Middle East. Their contrasting approaches highlight a fundamental question: In the battle for energy security, should nations strive for absolute independence or prioritise strategic flexibility? Energy has long been central to global power dynamics. Nations that control resources wield immense influence over trade, security, and diplomacy. In today’s volatile geopolitical landscape, energy is not just a commodity but a strategic weapon. While Modi champions diversification to safeguard India’s energy future, Trump’s doctrine of self-reliance aimed to minimize foreign dependencies. Yet, the evolving energy landscape suggests that true resilience may not come from isolation but from the ability to adapt to shifting realities. – Strategies for energy security
India – Mauritius
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Mauritius, the Indian Navy and Mauritius Coast Guard signed a technical agreement to share white shipping information. This would help Mauritius curb illegal fishing practices in its waters. Moreover, India’s growing security co-operation with Mauritius will contribute towards a ‘free and open’ western Indian region. Located at a crucial geostrategic juncture and a central trans-shipment point, Mauritius has approximately 2.3 million square kilometres of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), with another 400,000 square kilometres jointly managed with the Seychelles. The Mauritius blue economy activity represents 10.3 per cent of its national GDP and employs around 20,000 people, excluding coastal tourism. The blue economy is vital for Mauritius not only to develop and sustain its economy, but also to strengthen its economic diversification in key maritime sectors such as port infrastructure, shipping, tourism, seafood, fisheries, aquaculture, underwater cultural heritage, and renewable energy. The country has an ‘Oceans Economy Roadmap’ and recently established a Ministry for Blue Economy, Marine Resources, Fisheries, and Shipping as the implementing agency of the roadmap. – SAGAR to MAHASAGAR | India reinforces its role in the Indian Ocean
ISIS
(Sarika Ram Nath – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) continues to grow as the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025 has reported that the terror conglomerate has expanded its operations now to 22 countries, causing 1,805 deaths in 2024, with Syria and the Democratic Republic of Congo accounting for 71 per cent of its attacks last year. A 2024 UN report estimated that ISIS, despite recent setbacks, still commanded up to 6,000 fighters in Afghanistan, about 3,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq, and 2,000 to 3,000 fighters in the West African states of Mali, Burkina Faso and the Niger. – ISIS in 2025: The Resurging Threat – MP-IDSA
Philippines
(Simran Walia – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The Philippines is in the third stage of its ‘Horizons’ military modernisation initiative. As part of the programme, the Philippines has set aside US$ 35 billion over the next 10 years. Amidst increasing tensions in the South China Sea (SCS), the Philippine military is eager to acquire at least two submarines and additional anti-ship missiles as part of its ongoing military modernisation programme. – The Philippines’ Horizon 3 Military Modernisation Programme – MP-IDSA
Turkiye – Indonesia
(Awais Hanif – East Asia Forum) Turkiye and Indonesia have signed a defence deal for joint drone production, supporting Indonesia’s military modernisation and self-sufficiency while strengthening its maritime security. Turkiye, a dominant player in the global drone market, sees this as a step into Southeast Asia’s arms industry. Despite interoperability challenges, the agreement enhances bilateral defence ties and positions Turkiye as an alternative supplier amid shifting global security dynamics. This partnership aligns with Indonesia’s long-term strategy to reduce reliance on Western arms through technology transfer and local defence industry development. – Turkiye–Indonesia defence industry cooperation takes off | East Asia Forum
US
(Khyati Singh – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is set to become a thing of the past after President Donald Trump announced his intent to ‘get rid of it’. Trump issued an executive order aimed at overhauling the US foreign aid system, citing misalignment with American interests and values. He asserted that the current foreign aid framework was inconsistent with US interests and called for a 90-day suspension of all new foreign development assistance obligations and disbursements. This pause is expected to allow for a comprehensive review of existing programmes to assess their efficiency and alignment with US foreign policy. The reviews of foreign assistance programmes are being done under the guidance of the Secretary of State and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Within the 90-day period, decisions will be made regarding the continuation, modification, or termination of each programme based on the review findings. Assistance may resume before the 90 days if a programme is deemed worthy of continuation after review. The Secretary of State has the authority to waive the pause for specific programmes if necessary. – Hard Attack on US Soft Power: The Case of USAID – MP-IDSA
