From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Gaza; Georgia; NATO-Europe-Russia; Poland; Russia; Russia-Ukraine; South Korea-North Korea; Syria; UNGA; US; US-Asia-China-Taiwan; US-South Korea-Indo Pacific; Yemen
Gaza
(UN News) The UN Secretary-General has condemned the reported killing and injury of Palestinians seeking food aid in Gaza on Sunday, calling for an investigation into the matter. More than 30 people were killed and over 100 wounded while waiting in the morning to get food from two sites in Rafah and Middle Gaza run by the newly established Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), according to media reports. The organization is backed by Israel and the United States and uses private US security contractors supervised by the Israeli military. Aid distributions began at the end of May, bypassing the UN and other humanitarian agencies. – Gaza: Guterres urges probe into killings at food distribution sites | UN News
(Soufan Center) President Trump and top aides indicated last week, although perhaps prematurely, that they are optimistic a new U.S. proposal, forged in partnership with Qatar and Egypt, will lead to a renewed ceasefire in the Gaza conflict. Hamas criticized the proposal as lacking guarantees that the war will end and, by extension, permit Hamas to remain a major actor in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to accept any modifications to the U.S. plan that would limit his option to pursue the war until Hamas is dismantled. Netanyahu’s government also continues to resist adopting a “day after plan” to establish a Palestinian-led successor government and security force in Gaza. – Mediators Continue to Push for a Ceasefire in Gaza – The Soufan Center
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) The Georgian Parliament condemned the U.S. MEGOBARI Act, labeling it as “hostile” and “factually flawed” after the U.S. House of Representatives passed the bill calling for sanctions on Georgian Dream leaders due to democratic backsliding. Georgian Dream resumed anti-U.S. rhetoric and disinformation campaigns following the acts passing, aiming to justify deeper alignment with authoritarian powers such as Russia and the People’s Republic of China. Diplomatic tensions with the West have escalated with incidents, including the denial of entry to an EU diplomat to Georgia. Georgian Dream may further restrict Western diplomatic presence, signaling a shift toward authoritarianism and distancing from Western allies. – Georgian Dream Condemns U.S. MEGOBARI Act – Jamestown
NATO – Europe – Russia
(Andrew A. Michta – Atlantic Council) If Russia were to move rapidly against the Baltic states, NATO could not defend its territory effectively without the United States. European allies need to rearm quickly, but a push for full “strategic autonomy” from the United States risks destabilizing the continent and the Alliance. The United States and NATO need to make smarter, faster decisions about who buys what and how the hardware, software, and data operate together. A Force Mix Analysis can point out the choices needed so that by 2027 European NATO states can independently defend their northeastern border. – For NATO in 2027, European leadership will be key to deterrence against Russia – Atlantic Council
Poland
(Janusz Bugajski – The Jamestown Foundation) Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of Poland’s main opposition party, narrowly defeated Rafał Trzaskowski, the coalition government’s nominee, to win the Polish presidency. The election campaign was hotly contested and controversial, with both candidates and their supporters accusing their rivals of personal scandals and policy catastrophes. Some politicians even claimed that they presented a choice between the West and the East. The result indicates there will be little change in Poland’s foreign and security policy, as both the government and the President are committed to a well-armed Poland, a strong North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and close relations with the United States. The elections served as a warning sign ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections that more attention needs to be paid to young voters who are increasingly alienated from the two major parties. – Poland’s Presidential Elections Reveal Domestic Fissures and National Commitments – Jamestown
(Atlantic Council) The polls have spoken. Karol Nawrocki, a historian and former boxer backed by Poland’s conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, narrowly triumphed over Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski in Sunday’s presidential election. Nawrocki, whose candidacy was embraced by the Trump administration, will be the head of state opposite the centrist, pro-European head of government, Prime Minister Donald Tusk. With war still raging in next-door Ukraine and US-European relations under strain, what should the world expect from Nawrocki? – Experts react: Conservative Karol Nawrocki is Poland’s next president. What does it mean for Poland, Europe, and the world? – Atlantic Council
Russia
(Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) Gunpowder production in Russia nearly doubled from 2022 to 2024 due to increased imports and domestic manufacturing of cotton cellulose nitrate. This rise suggests a potential doubling in artillery shell output during the same period. Russia remains dependent on imported raw materials, particularly cotton pulp and cellulose nitrate, despite ongoing efforts to develop alternatives from linen and hemp. Domestic sourcing challenges hinder self-sufficiency in critical components of gunpowder. Key chemical inputs for explosives, such as toluene and concentrated nitric acid, have seen noticeable production increases in Russia, reflecting both post-2010s recovery and heightened military demand since 2022, but growth capacity appears limited. A 17 percent workforce expansion across major explosives and gunpowder plants since 2021, with up to 57 percent increases at some key sites, underpins the rise in production, but further gains are constrained by outdated infrastructure. Modernization of Russia’s military-industrial complex is underway, but not yet transformative, with Russia focusing on sustaining output rather than achieving exponential growth. Future increases in manufacturing will likely face rising costs and logistical challenges. – Assessment of Gunpowder and Explosives Manufacturing in Russia – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Molly Carlough, Benjamin Harris – Council on Foreign Relations) Russia holds a sizable advantage over Ukraine on troop numbers and weaponry yet the two sides have fought to a standstill. Russia this spring has ramped up attacks on civilian targets while resisting U.S. ceasefire calls. – How Do the Militaries of Russia and Ukraine Stack Up? | Council on Foreign Relations
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) The lead-up to the latest talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 demonstrates stark differences in negotiation strategies. Kyiv sent Russia a proposal beforehand, while Moscow maintained secrecy, diminishing hopes for substantive progress or meaningful compromise. Moscow’s unrealistic demands, including halting Western military aid to Ukraine and ending Ukrainian mobilization, signal a performative flexibility to mask its aim to prolong the conflict. Russia’s domestic challenges, including demographic decline, economic strain from sanctions, and reduced energy revenues, threaten its war sustainability and expose the Kremlin’s fragility despite its strong front. – Russia’s Maximalist Demands Undermine Peace Talks Despite Mounting Domestic Strains – Jamestown
South Korea – North Korea
(Gabriela Bernal – The Interpreter) The election of a new South Korean president on 3 June marks the opportunity for a fresh chapter in inter-Korean ties and security on the Korean Peninsula. Relations between North and South reached dangerous new lows under former president Yoon Suk-yeol – now impeached – who favoured a strategy heavily focused on military deterrence and trilateral cooperation with Washington and Tokyo. This approach, paired with North Korea’s decision in December 2023 to abandon the decades-long goal of reunification with the South, resulted in the de facto collapse of inter-Korean relations for the remainder of Yoon’s time in office. With the United States preoccupied with Ukraine and Gaza, and North Korea focused on reaping as many benefits as possible from its burgeoning relations with Russia, ties between Seoul and Pyongyang reached a dangerous stalemate. – Seoul’s new leader faces an uphill battle on inter-Korean relations | Lowy Institute
Syria
(Charles Lister – Atlantic Council) For the better part of half a century, Syria has been an open wound in the heart of the Middle East, provoking instability, fueling conflict, and brutally suppressing its own people. Throughout Syria’s nearly fourteen-year civil crisis, a long list of destabilizing knock-on effects spilled over into neighboring countries and the world at large. The long-standing moniker of “what happens in Syria never stays in Syria” perfectly encapsulated what for most of the past decade looked to be a truly intractable crisis. – In Syria’s fragile transition there’s a glimmer of a more stable Middle East – Atlantic Council
UNGA
(UN News) Former German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock was elected President of the General Assembly’s 80th session on Monday. Her appointment comes as the regional group that includes Western Europe takes its turn at the helm of the world body. She assumes the role at a challenging time, with ongoing conflicts, faltering development goals, mounting financial pressures, and the upcoming selection of the next Secretary-General. Ms. Baerbock received 167 votes following the secret ballot. Write-in candidate Helga Schmid (also from Germany) received seven. Fourteen delegations abstained. She becomes the first woman from the Western European group to hold the post and the fifth woman overall to lead the General Assembly. The presidency rotates among the world body’s five regional groups. At 44 years, Ms. Baerbock is also one of the youngest leaders to secure the top job. – Germany’s Annalena Baerbock elected President of the 80th General Assembly | UN News
US
(Huw McKay – The Interpreter) In the period between Trump’s thumping election win and his inauguration, I was asked to compile a set of short-term scenarios for a multinational company that was highly exposed to US policy risk. Rather than delving into policy uncertainty (given the agenda was there in the public domain for all to see), I chose instead to focus on the different forms of conduct that the administration would exhibit in pursuing its stated policy aims. As part of this exercise, one scenario felt both incredibly dangerous and highly compelling. It consisted of a baseline assumption that the administration would pursue its wide-ranging goals with brute force, as an expression of raw power, with nothing ceded and everything demanded. More practically, if this were to be true, the inference was that the United States would be likely to engage in bad faith negotiations with friend and rival alike. And indeed, the conduct of the United States to date has borne many of the hallmarks of a stereotypical bad faith negotiator – a type that is studied in schools of law, business and diplomacy the world over. – Trump and the art of the (bad faith) deal | Lowy Institute
US – Asia – China – Taiwan
(Graeme Dobell – The Strategist) Casting aside the long-standing policy called strategic ambiguity, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth says America would go to war to stop China invading Taiwan. Hegseth says the Trump administration’s military policy is to pivot from Europe to Asia, to deter China’s threat and thwart Beijing’s quest for regional supremacy. Hegseth told Singapore’s annual Shangri-La dialogue on Saturday: ‘President Trump has said that Communist China will not invade Taiwan on his watch. Our goal is to prevent war. And we will do this with a strong shield of deterrence …. But if deterrence fails, we will be prepared to do what the Department of Defence does best—fight and win—decisively.’ – Hegseth: Asia is the priority, and the US will fight for Taiwan | The Strategist
US – South Korea – Indo Pacific
(Victor Cha – Center for Strategic & International Studies) A May 23 Wall Street Journal article stated that the United States has decided to withdraw 4,500 troops from South Korea and relocate them to Guam and other bases. Department of Defense spokesperson Sean Parnell responded with a statement that the report is “not true.” Others have noted that, although a decision on troop withdrawals has not been made, the issue is under serious consideration at the Pentagon, U.S. Forces Korea, and Indo-Pacific Command. – The Meaning of U.S. Troop Withdrawals from Korea
Yemen
(UN News) As June marks one year since the arbitrary detention of dozens of personnel from the UN, NGOs, civil society organizations and diplomatic missions by the Houthi de facto authorities in Yemen, the UN Secretary-General has reiterated his call for their release, urging they be freed “immediately and unconditionally.”. In a statement on Monday, António Guterres strongly condemned the death in detention of a World Food Programme (WFP) staff member earlier this year. The Houthis have yet to provide “an explanation for this deplorable tragedy,” António Guterres said, renewing his call for “an immediate, transparent and thorough investigation and accountability.” – UN calls for ‘immediate and unconditional’ release of aid workers arbitrarily detained in Yemen | UN News
