From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : India, India-Indonesia, India-Maldives, Malaysia, Middle East, Myanmar, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, Saudi Arabia-UAE, Southeast Asia-US, South Korea, Davos 2025
India
(Sayantan Haldar – Observer Research Foundation)
Maritime security preparedness has emerged as a critical priority for India’s outlook in the Indian Ocean and the wider Indo-Pacific. India’s outlook and outreach in the region remain anchored in its ambition to be a leading naval power in the Indian Ocean and a key architect in the Indo-Pacific security landscape. The importance of India bolstering its naval power is underscored by emerging challenges at sea, primarily emanating from China’s complex strategy to increase its presence in the Indian Ocean. On 15 January, Prime Minister Narendra Modi commissioned three naval warships—which includes a destroyer, INS Surat; a frigate, INS Nilgiri; and a submarine, INS Vaghsheer—in Mumbai, further bolstering the Indian Navy’s prowess and maritime security preparedness. – Bolstering the Indian Navy: Commissioning three naval warships for Indo-Pacific security
India – Indonesia
(Premesha Saha – Observer Research Foundation)
Indonesian President Prabowo Subinato is on a state visit to India from 25-26 January 2025. This marks his first visit to the country since he took office in October last year and it comes at a time when India and Indonesia are celebrating the 75th year of their bilateral partnership. Both countries upgraded their relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2018, during the visit of former Indonesia President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) to India. But there is still significant unfulfilled potential in the relationship which begs the question of what practical steps can be taken to strengthen the relationship across a range of fields. – Prabowo’s Indonesia and the future of India-Indonesia strategic ties
India – Maldives
(N. Sathiya Moorthy – Observer Research Foundation)
With two high-profile visits in two weeks, the new year seems to augur well for bilateral relations between India and the Maldives. Considering that this time, last year, bilateral ties were at their worst, rendering the visits by Maldivian Foreign Minister Abdulla Khaleel and Defence Minister Ghassan Maumoon even more significant. – Maldives and India: Navigating strengthened ties amid geopolitical shifts
Malaysia
(Adib Zalkapli – FULCRUM)
The 6 January public rally supporting former Prime Minister Najib Razak’s bid to serve his prison sentence at home was almost like a reunion. The rally was organised by Perikatan Nasional (PN) and saw the presence of a senior leader from Barisan Nasional (BN). The Najib issue has brought BN and PN closer, causing division within the sitting administration. This creates both legal and political dilemmas for the Unity Government. The rally was planned as a joint event by leaders from the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) and Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS). UMNO and BN are part of the Unity Government led by Pakatan Harapan (PH), while PAS is part of PN. BN and PN had led the Malaysian federal government from 2020 until the general election in November 2022. Just three days prior, the National Palace issued a statement emphasising the role of the Pardons Board and the powers of the King, currently the Sultan of Johor. It was the clearest indication from the palace that the demonstration should be called off. As a result, UMNO declared that it would not join the rally. – Najib Dilemma Sows Discord in Malaysia’s Unity Government | FULCRUM
(Mohd Faizal Musa – FULCRUM)
On 20 November 2024, Senior Judge of the Terengganu Sharia High Court Kamalruazmi Ismail sentenced Mohd Affendi Awang to six lashes of the cane. The accused had pleaded guilty to the offence of committing khalwat (close proximity) for the third time. If this is not addressed by progressive elements, it could lead to similar punishments effected in other states. The Terengganu court ordered the sentence to be carried out publicly at the Al-Muktafi Billah Shah Mosque in Kuala Terengganu on 6 December 2024 after Friday prayers, following the expiration of the appeal period. The accused was charged under Section 31(a) of the Sharia Criminal Offenses (Takzir) Enactment (Terengganu) Amendment 2022. In addition to the caning, the accused was fined RM4,000 (or a six-month jail term if the fine was not paid). The caning is unprecedented. – Public Caning in Terengganu: Full Implementation of Sharia Law in Malaysia? | FULCRUM
Middle East
(Alexandra Braverman, Carolyn Moorman, Johanna Moore, Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War)
Gaza Strip: Israel announced that it will prevent Palestinians from returning to the northern Gaza Strip because Hamas violated the ceasefire agreement.
Syria: ISIS tried to attack the Sayyidah Zeynab shrine in Damascus, which is a prominent Shia religious site, likely in order to stoke sectarian tensions in Syria. – Iran Update, January 25, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Myanmar
(Sreeparna Banerjee – Observer Research Foundation)
In a significant turn of events, after days of relentless battles, the Arakan Army (AA) seized control of the Maungdaw and Taungup townships, securing a 270-kilometre (km) stretch along Myanmar’s border with Bangladesh last month. This victory cements the dominance of the AA and its political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA), in Rakhine State, and shifts the region’s dynamics, putting the junta on the back foot. The capture of hundreds of soldiers, weapons, and the infamous Brigadier General Thurein Tun marks a significant blow to the junta. – Arakan Army’s growing influence in Myanmar: Implications for the Rohingyas
(Surachanee Sriyai – FULCRUM)
In a virtual war alongside its physical one, Myanmar’s junta aims to cut off online access for its people and the resistance. The world can help by supporting Myanmar citizens in their attempts to stay connected. – Myanmar’s Internet Shutdowns: Silencing Resistance in the Battle for Connectivity | FULCRUM
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War)
Ukraine and Moldova continue to offer solutions to Transnistria’s energy crisis as Moldovan President Maia Sandu met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on January 25.
The Kremlin is continuing to leverage the prominent Kremlin-linked Rybar Telegram channel to cultivate increased Russian influence in Iraq.
Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 25 that the Russian government will allow veterans of volunteer formations (dobrovolcheskie formirovaniya) to receive “combat veteran status” without submitting a formal application. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Saudi Arabia – UAE
(Staša Salacanin – Stimson Center)
For several decades, the United Arab Emirates has been the undisputed regional economic leader, attracting foreign investors. Recently, however, Saudi Arabia has doubled down on its efforts to compete with Dubai and present itself as the new regional economic leader. The competition could reshape Saudi-UAE relations and impact the entire region. – Saudi Arabia and the UAE Compete to be Hubs for Regional Business • Stimson Center
Southeast Asia – US
(Maria Monica Wihardja, George Tan – FULCRUM)
Trump 2.0 has inherited recently strengthened export controls that block access to US chips and technologies from its adversaries. The third package of export controls, issued by the Biden Administration on 3 December 2024, carry provisions on extraterritorial Foreign-Direct Product Rule (FDPR). This means that goods under the US government’s Commerce Control List produced outside the US but with US-origin components or technologies may be subjected to export controls. – Will Southeast Asian Countries Pass the US’s Heightened Export Controls? | FULCRUM
South Korea
(Daniel Sneider – East Asia Forum)
South Korea faces a severe political crisis following President Yoon Suk-yeol’s attempted coup on 3 December 2024, when he declared martial law and tried to arrest elected officials. Parliament thwarted this attempt and impeached him two weeks later. The crisis has exposed deep societal polarisation, with both left and right mobilising in protests. Lee Jae-myung, despite facing corruption charges, appears likely to become the next president, shifting power to the progressive Democratic Party. This political turmoil coincides with Donald Trump’s return to power in Washington, raising concerns about the US-South Korea alliance, relations with North Korea, and regional security partnerships. – The return of the vortex in South Korea and the turbulence ahead | East Asia Forum
Davos 2025
(Varsen Aghabekian, Asaad Hasan AlShaibani, Rebecca Anderson, Fuad Hussein, Ayman Al Safadi, Jean-Noël Barrot – WEF)
The ongoing war in Gaza, a delicate ceasefire in Lebanon, a political changeover in Syria and heightened tensions in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa threaten to spill over into a wider regional conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, the region finds itself caught in the middle of a geoeconomic competition between superpowers. What does the path to peace, security and cooperation look like in the Middle East? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Odile Françoise Renaud-Basso, Hayashi Nobumitsu, Sara Pantuliano, Jon Johnsen, Leila Fourie – WEF)
Ten years after public and private financiers committed to support emerging economies in achieving the sustainable development goals, the financing gap has grown by $2.5 trillion to $4.2 trillion. What lessons can governments, multilateral development banks and private investors draw from efforts to boost blended finance and how can they close the financing gap? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Omar Abbosh, Vimal Kapur, Adam Grant, Joe Ucuzoglu, Claudia Azevedo, Jayant Chaudhary – WEF)
With businesses now investing over $240 billion annually in AI and digital infrastructure, the lack of skills remains the top barrier to unlocking the full potential of digital transformation. What collaborative effort is needed to bridge the skills gaps and unlock the benefits for competitiveness, growth and productivity? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Fifi Peters, Dan Jørgensen, Juan Pablo Mata, Laurence Tubiana, J. Jon Imaz – WEF)
More than half of the world’s largest 2,000 companies have embedded climate targets in their corporate strategy, though less than 20% of them consider the impact of such targets on workers, communities, consumers, or supply chains. What actions and principles can help the private sector enable an equitable green transition? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Michael McGrath, Iain Drennan, Randall Lane, Volker Türk, Wanji Walcott, Tirana Hassan – WEF)
As the speed and volume of online content creation and dissemination accelerate, the debate over content moderation has never been more critical. Considering evolving regulations, are digital platforms, governments and civil society striking the right balance with content moderation, or overstepping boundaries, potentially affecting freedom of expression and online safety? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Mehreen Khan, Rania Al-Mashat, Martin Wolf, Julio Velarde, Martin Schlegel – WEF)
Inflation has rocked post-pandemic economies throughout the world, resulting in central banks raising interest rates to levels rarely seen in decades. In a geoeconomic environment characterized by isolationism, conflict and fragmentation, is it time to rethink approaches to inflation, drawing from the past, to better protect economies of the future? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Catherine Russell, Comfort Ero, Ishaan Tharoor, Ricardo Hausmann – WEF)
With international attention focused on two conflicts, in Gaza and Ukraine, other crises of diverse nature, from Sudan to Myanmar and DRC to Venezuela, are creating, instability, disruptions and challenges that the international system is struggling to cope with. In 2025, over 300 million people around the world will need humanitarian assistance and protection. – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
