From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Eurasia; Europe; Europe-Taiwan; Gaza; Philippines; Russia; Russia-Europe-US; Somalia-Al Shabaab; Ukraine; US
Eurasia
(Luke Rodeheffer – The Jamestown Foundation) A series of investigations and arrests across Eurasia has revealed a rise in international call center fraud operations, underscoring the increasingly transnational nature of cybercrime in the region. Russian-language cybercrime has historically avoided targeting Russia or members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, but Eurasian call center fraud is increasingly targeting Russian speakers. These scams are likely to continue to increase, given the perilous economic situation for many in the region, the erosion of the rule of law across post-Soviet Eurasia, and the spread of new technologies and criminal expertise. – Call Center Scams Spread Across Eurasia – Jamestown
Europe
(Pierre Vimont – Carnegie Europe) By yielding to U.S. demands, Europeans risk becoming geopolitically obsolete. To be influential in the changing post–1945 order, Europe must enhance its diplomacy by upholding universal rights and values while meeting the needs of nations from the Global South. – Reinventing European Diplomacy | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Pamela Park – German Marshall Fund of the United States) European defense leaders are confronting a historic moment of change in their security environment. In the past, Europe has been deeply dependent on the United States for maintaining existing weaponry and acquiring new defense systems. European leaders now grapple with growing uncertainty over US commitment to NATO and an aggressive Russian threat. These dual challenges compel European leaders to reassess their defense strategies and their need for strategic autonomy. To navigate this complex security landscape, European defense leaders would benefit from looking to a Silicon Valley strategic decision-making framework for competitive, fast-evolving tech industries. In dynamic, high-stakes environments, tech firm leaders choose to build proprietary solutions (for example, Apple’s M-series chips for performance control), buy established technologies (for example, Google’s use of Qualcomm chips for its phones), or blend external innovations with internal capabilities for strategic advantage (for example, Microsoft’s integration of OpenAI into Azure). This Build-Buy-Blend framework offers three distinct approaches for balancing innovation, speed, and autonomy in defense modernization. It frames strategic choices as adaptable bets, continuously reassessed as technology, competition, and global events rapidly evolve. – Build, Buy, or Blend? | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Europe – Taiwan
(Colleen Scribner – German Marshall Fund of the United States) As global attention swings between crises in Ukraine, the Middle East, trade policy, and shifting dynamics in Washington, Taiwan risks falling off Europe’s policy radar. But the message from Berlin this June, where GMF convened the eighth Taiwan Trilateral Forum, was unambiguous: Europe’s stakes in Taiwan are growing, and the time for a more deliberate, coordinated strategy is now. The two-day Track 1.5 forum brought together government officials from across Europe, the United States, and Taiwan, along with think-tank experts and business leaders. Conversations underscored both the urgency and opportunity for Europe to clarify its Taiwan policy—not as an extension of China strategy, but as a strategic agenda in its own right. – Europe’s Taiwan Imperative | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Gaza
(Nur Arafeh and Mandy Turner – Carnegie Middle East) Once Israel’s war in the territory is brought to an end, the foundational principles guiding reconstruction should be Palestinian self-determination, local agency, and sovereignty. – Destruction, Disempowerment, and Dispossession: Disaster Capitalism and the Postwar Plans for Gaza | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Philippines
(Markus Garlauskas and Philip W. Yu – Atlantic Council) There’s an overall sense of optimism these days in the Philippines’ capital city, but it’s mixed with foreboding. In our recent week of meetings with a range of Filipino, US, and other like-minded government officials, military officers, and outside experts, the threat from China to the Philippines’ sovereignty and self-determination was palpable in almost every conversation. Upon our arrival, local media outlets were highlighting the ninth anniversary of the arbitral tribunal ruling that found China in gross violation of international law in Philippine waters. Though the ruling was a moral and legal victory highlighting international support for the Philippines, it also revealed the limits of that support. In the years since, China’s violations have escalated. Clearly, the Philippines needs more international help, and it has sought such assistance by documenting and publicizing aggressive Chinese actions. Interestingly, as the Philippines has focused more on Chinese threats to itself, Manila also seems increasingly inclined to see its own security as connected to that of the broader region, including Taiwan. – Dispatch from Manila: A lesson in calling out Chinese maritime aggression – Atlantic Council
Russia
(Vadim Shtepa – The Jamestown Foundation) Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has aimed to stamp out any open criticism or opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his war. Russia has expanded its definition of those it considers “foreign agents” and “terrorists and extremists” to justify further repression, especially on internet usage, and criminal prosecution. Some of the repressive measures introduced in Russia since 2022 closely resemble tactics used in Belarus and the People’s Republic of China—a sign that these authoritarian regimes closely monitor and learn from one another. – Russia Ramping Up Authoritarian-Style Virtual Repression – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Starting September 1, Moscow will fine Russians for accessing or searching for “extremist” content, including via virtual private network (VPN) technology, to control how Russians use the Internet without fully blocking it. The Putin regime has taken these steps to limit the growing impact of the Internet in ways that it hopes will not lead to either international opprobrium or the negative impact a complete shutdown would have on government operations, business, and research. This move will cast yet another pall over Russian life, but it is unlikely that it will cause all Russians to stop looking at what Moscow does not want them to see completely, unless the authorities impose such penalties far more widely. – Moscow Seeks to Control Internet by Fining Russians Searching for Content it Deems ‘Extremist’ – Jamestown
Russia – Europe – US
(Max Bergmann, Maria Snegovaya, Michael Kimmage, Hanna Notte, and Jeffrey Mankoff – Center for Strategic & International Studies) With the United States appearing to move away from its traditional lead role in deterring Russian power in Europe, the European Union and European capitals need a unified strategy for filling the gaps left by a potential American disengagement from the continent. The Cold War–era strategy of containing the Soviet Union, originally articulated by George Kennan, could prove firm enough to be effective, while flexible enough to maintain European unity in confronting Russian power. This strategy of containment should be updated to reflect the particularities and complexities of the present day and reframed to avoid the pitfalls of its twentieth-century predecessor. Then as now, containment should aim to constrain the projection of Russian power and influence, while avoiding a direct conflict between Russia and the Western alliance. – A Long-Term Russia Strategy for Europe
Somalia – Al Shabaab
(Soufan Center) Al-Shabaab’s July 2025 recapture of Sabiid and Anole underscores the group’s renewed offensive toward Mogadishu, reversing its key territorial losses from The Somali government’s 2022 counteroffensive. Al-Shabaab now controls a strategic triangle across Moqokori, Tardo, and Buq-Aqable in central Somalia, enabling it to encircle government positions and sever supply lines. Friction between the Somali Federal Government and regional states like Puntland has hampered coordination, weakening the effectiveness of joint counterterrorism operations. While the U.S. has escalated airstrikes against Islamic State in Puntland, al-Shabaab’s momentum in southern and central Somalia continues largely unchecked, highlighting concerns over gaps in international focus. – Al-Shabaab’s 2025 Offensive and the Unraveling of Somalia’s Federal Counterinsurgency – The Soufan Center
Ukraine
(Peter Dickinson – Atlantic Council) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appeared to reverse course on Thursday over plans to curb the powers of the country’s anti-corruption agencies following widespread international criticism and two days of public protests. Thousands took to the streets in cities across Ukraine on Tuesday after parliament passed legislation limiting the independence of anti-graft agencies established following the 2014 Revolution of Dignity. The protests, which were the first to take place in the country since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion more than three years ago, gained momentum on Wednesday. In an apparent reversal of his initial position, Zelenskyy has now announced that he has approved a new draft bill restoring all powers to the country’s anti-corruption organizations and largely safeguarding their freedom to conduct investigations without government oversight. The new legislation has been submitted to the Ukrainian Parliament, with anti-corruption officials backing the government U-turn and urging swift passage of the bill next week. – Wartime protests prove Ukraine’s democratic instincts are still strong – Atlantic Council
US
(Sebastian Mallaby, Jessica Brandt, Michael C. Horowitz, Kat Duffy, Erin D. Dumbacher, Rush Doshi, and Jonathan E. Hillman – Council on Foreign Relations) President Donald Trump released his new Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Plan to coincide with his “Winning the AI Race” summit in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday. The twenty-eight-page document contains more than ninety policy recommendations that the administration believes will expand the global sale of U.S. AI technology, speed up the construction of data centers, and reduce “red tape” that has proved an obstacle for the AI industry. As Trump put it in his keynote address, the plan will help the United States “win at AI, while dismantling regulatory barriers.” – The Opportunities and Risks Inherent to Trump’s AI Action Plan | Council on Foreign Relations
