Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Belarus
(Grigory Ioffe – The Jamestown Foundation) Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka celebrated the 30th anniversary of his rule on July 10, highlighting his enduring influence in Belarusian politics as the country’s only president since independence. Lukashenka’s power relies on pro-Russian support against pro-European factions, which he claims necessitates authoritarian control. Belarusians who favor Russia seek national unity, while pro-European Belarusians seek higher living standards and the rule of law. The West can support the opposition, Lukashenka, or both, as strengthening ties with Lukashenka could serve to shift Belarus further from Russia through providing him economic and diplomatic alternatives to the Kremlin.
Lukashenka’s 30th Presidential Anniversary Highlights Belarus’s Political Divide – Jamestown
(Hanna Liubakova – Atlantic Council) Last Friday, Belarus introduced a new visa-free regime allowing citizens from thirty-five European countries to stay for up to ninety days per year. This move is notable given the current tensions between the Belarusian regime of Alyaksandr Lukashenka and the West. The visa-free policy seems to be a strategic propaganda effort from Minsk to ease these tensions. Following new European Union (EU) sanctions in late June, Poland has significantly restricted the import of goods into Belarus by Belarusian individuals, while Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have banned cars with Belarusian license plates from entering their countries. These measures impact the people of Belarus, and against this backdrop, the visa decision is an attempt by Lukashenka and his regime to “demonstrate the openness and peacefulness of our country.”
China
(Willy Wo-Lap Lam – The Jamestown Foundation) Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping has solidified his position as the driving force behind achieving a “high-quality socialist market economy” by 2029. The recent CCP Central Committee Plenum indicated that he would rule until at least 2032. The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP outlined its economic strategy, focusing on high-tech innovation. Despite ongoing efforts to revitalize the economy in this vein, growth remains sluggish. Discussions of tax reforms could upset business confidence, as the potential broadening of tax categories comes at a time when many companies are facing audits by local governments meant to force them to pay back years’ worth of taxes. The plenum hinted at adopting a policy of re-collectivization to address the underutilization of rural land and draw young workers back to agriculture, echoing failed Maoist policies. The plenum communiqué stressed the need for controlled pro-market reforms and other measures to attract foreign investment, while acknowledging the myriad internal and external risks the system currently faces.
Xi Sets Out 2029 Vision At The Third Plenum – Jamestown
China – Palestine
(Ahmed Aboudouh – Chatham House) The national unity agreement signed by Hamas and Fatah in Beijing on 23 July will not put China on a par with the United States in the Middle East or establish it as an alternative mediator. Washington has no role in this game, as it can’t speak directly to Hamas. Similar conditions facilitated the China-brokered Saudi-Iranian normalization of March 2023. China’s aims in brokering the declaration are more strategic and long-term.
Israel – Palestine
(Julie Norman – RUSI) Israeli and Palestinian communities are currently traumatised, distrustful and defiant, with polls showing support for a two-state solution at an all-time low. Many in both communities feel that a peace process would simply allow the other side to buy time while pursuing more maximalist goals.
Mongolia – Central Asia
(Nurbek Bekmurzaev – The Jamestown Foundation) Mongolia is engaging in efforts, including bilateral negotiations and official visits, to improve relations with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan following a long period of stagnant foreign policy toward Central Asia. These states share a Soviet legacy, resource extraction-oriented economies, and similar geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges stemming from their position between Russia and China, which provide openings for developing stronger relations with Ulaanbaatar. Mongolia’s interest in Central Asia lies in the region’s increasing importance for global trade, logistics, and connectivity, as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan play growing roles in developing and using east-west transit and trade routes.
Mongolia Bolsters Relations With Governments of Central Asia – Jamestown
Nigeria – Libya
(Leah de Haan, Iro Aghedo, Tim Eaton – Chatham House) Despite being thousands of miles apart, Libya and Edo State in southern Nigeria are connected by a centuries-old route for trade and the movement of people. Since the outbreak of conflict in Libya in 2011, it has become a major route for human-smuggling and -trafficking.
Pacific
(Kathryn Paik and Eileen Natuzzi – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Increasingly alarmed by aggressive Chinese efforts to broaden a security foothold in the Pacific, the United States, along with partners such as Australia and New Zealand, has stepped up efforts in recent years to be present and responsive to the needs of the Pacific Islands—with varied levels of success. One critical area, health development, has continued to fall short—and yet, working with the Pacific to prioritize health system development could have significant and long-lasting positive effects on U.S. presence and influence in this critical region.
Prioritizing Health System Development in the Pacific: A Layered Approach (csis.org)
Russia
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian State Duma Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky, former ataman of the Don Cossacks, gave an interview on May 14 discussing plans to open new state-registered Cossack societies in the occupied territories of Ukraine, highlighting the Cossacks’ role in the Kremlin’s consolidation of control over these regions. The new Cossack societies loyal to the Kremlin are doling out discipline through horseback patrols, establishing Cossack educational institutions, and spreading support for Russian Orthodoxy in an effort to further ingrain themselves in Ukrainian society with Moscow’s backing. The historical presence of Cossacks in these regions and the role they play in Cossack history is a significant motivator for Cossacks to fight on the Russian side, which the Kremlin uses to its advantage to keep the registered movement under its control by supporting the regular establishment of new Cossack societies.
Moscow Increases Cossack Presence in Occupied Territories – Jamestown
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) EU member states and other Western powers have introduced restrictive sanctions against Russia’s diamond-producing industry, a major contributor to the Russian economy, such as restrictions against the import of Russian diamonds directly or from other countries. Other diamond-producing countries, many of which are in Africa, are enthusiastic about the prospect of these sanctions opening opportunities, as Russian diamonds have heavily saturated the market in the past. The new sanctions are unlikely to result in the total collapse of Russia’s diamond industry. They nevertheless could further degrade the Russian economy and inflame anti-Moscow sentiments in the country’s diamond-producing, ethnically non-Russian regions.
Russia’s Diamond Industry Under Pressure of Stricter Sanctions – Jamestown
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Hlib Parfonov – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s 2024 offensive has made some small gains while enduring heavy manpower and equipment losses. This approach reflects the Kremlin’s shift from carrying out a “special military operation” in Ukraine to digging in for a “long war” of attrition. Ukrainian defenses have been hampered by a lack of sufficient engineers to fully fortify defensive lines across the front, allowing Russian units to probe Ukraine’s lines in search of weak spots. Much of Ukraine’s future defensive and offensive potential will rely on quick and decisive Western aid. Another stall in support could mean future losses for Kyiv similar to those suffered around Avdiivka earlier this year.
Russia’s Costly 2024 Offensive and Lessons for Ukraine – Jamestown
Sudan
(Michelle Gavin – Council on Foreign Relations) News that the Biden administration is spearheading a fresh initiative to end the conflict in Sudan is a rare positive development in a story that just keeps getting worse.
Bringing More Attention to Sudan’s Crisis | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Turkmenistan
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Turkmenistan, a constitutionally mandated neutral and closed off country, has attracted far less attention and played a smaller role than its neighbors in regional trade and transit. Ashgabat has not only become more active abroad but has also reached agreements that will make it the new crossroads for north-south and east-west transit corridors, increasing its geopolitical heft and opening more to the world. Outside powers will now be working to expand their positions in Turkmenistan, which will lead to the expansion of their footprints there and likely unsettling the domestic situation in the country.
Turkmenistan at New Crossroads of North-South and East-West Corridors – Jamestown
UK
(Andrew Neal – RUSI) Despite the consistent inclusion of pandemic risks in recent national security documents, the UK’s response to Covid-19 fell short, highlighting the challenge of translating strategic plans into real-world action.
(RUSI) Given the significant challenges posed by the need to design, implement and enforce sanctions on Russia and the recent publication of the UK government’s sanctions strategy, RUSI has established a new taskforce to consider what the UK’s independent sanctions policy might be in this dramatically changed sanctions environment.
UK – India
(Chietigj Bajpaee – Chatham House) The visit of British Foreign Secretary David Lammy to India in the first month of the new UK government has sent a clear signal to New Delhi that it is eager to conclude a free trade agreement (FTA) between both countries. In a speech shortly before the election, Lammy said ‘Labour is ready to go’ on the deal, adding that he saw the FTA ‘as the floor, not the ceiling in the relationship’. The third term Narendra Modi government in New Delhi also ensures continued momentum on the trade deal.
USA
(Carol Graham – Brookings) One of the keys to sustained and successful democracy is access to credible information about the state of the country and the people competing for its leadership. This access is under threat due to myriad factors: political polarization; the decline of local newspapers; the paucity of opportunities for post-secondary education in our country’s poorest places; the resulting gaps in both education and opportunity levels in those populations and places; and the crisis of despair that is reducing health and longevity in many of those same places. That context provides a perfect breeding ground for the spread of dangerous misinformation that is jeopardizing our democracy. It is imperative that we pay attention to this trend, how it affects those most vulnerable to it, and the role in could play in the upcoming presidential election.
Our twin crises of despair and misinformation | Brookings
USA – China
(Yu Jie – Chatham House) The China–US relationship has no doubt deteriorated in recent years. Washington’s policy of containing China through the application of restrictions on certain goods and markets, as well as China’s own economic downturn, have increased the tension between these two global powers.
China ‘under siege’ | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Sarah Bauerle Danzman – Atlantic Council) In early June, the US Treasury Department announced a proposed update to Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) rules that would expand the committee’s jurisdiction over foreign real estate purchases. These new rules were announced after several recent high-profile and controversial planned property purchases by initially undisclosed or Chinese buyers, a growing number of state-level restrictions on foreign real estate investments, and increased congressional scrutiny on greenfield investment. These new proposed rules come on the heels of increasing concerns over Chinese investment in US real estate near sensitive locations, such as near military bases. Moreover, the proposed update could presage an expanded interpretation of CFIUS jurisdiction to include certain greenfield investments.
China’s ability to buy US land near military bases just got more restricted – Atlantic Council
(Jessica Shao, Patricia M. Kim – Brookings) The United States and China are fiercely competing across domains—including in global public opinion. The 2024 presidential election will have a crucial impact on perceptions of U.S. leadership around the world, and the next administration would be well served to consider how global audiences viewed the United States and China during the Trump and Biden administrations.
USA – Israel
(Atlantic Council) “Our enemies are your enemies. Our fight is your fight. And our victory will be your victory.” That was the message Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered on Wednesday to a joint session of the US Congress that dozens of lawmakers refused to attend. In his speech, Netanyahu called for further US support for Israel in its war against Hamas, which he framed as part of a larger regional struggle between Iran and the West. He also condemned his government’s critics, including anti-war protesters in the United States. Outside the Capitol, thousands of people protested Netanyahu’s visit and his government’s conduct of the war in Gaza.
Venezuela
(Christopher Sabatini, Alexandra Farsari – Chatham House) Venezuela’s elections on 28 July will, one way or another, bring change to the polarized and economically troubled country. For 25 years, the self-proclaimed Bolivarian Movement, named after Venezuela’s independence hero, Simón Bolívar, has run the country. Now public opinion polls show the opposition candidate Edmundo González leading incumbent President Nicolas Maduro by 20 to 30 percentage points.
(Iria Puyosa, Andrés Azpúrua, Daniel Suárez Pérez – Atlantic Council) Once the most vigorous democracy in Latin America, Venezuela started down a slow path toward autocracy twenty-five years ago. It also became a model for digital authoritarianism and an exporter of democratic backsliding to the rest of the Americas. Control of the information space, widespread surveillance, and digital repression are significant pillars of the current regime’s survival. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro is counting on this, along with electoral manipulation and judicial control, to remain in power as Venezuela holds a presidential election on July 28. Nonetheless, a cohesive democratic coalition mobilizing the population across the country has a serious chance of making this election the starting point for a transition toward re-democratization.
How Venezuela became a model for digital authoritarianism – Atlantic Council
