From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Africa, ASEAN, China, China-Arctic, Davos and Trump, Jammu and Kashmir, North Korea, Panama Canal, Singapore, US, US-Gaza Ceasefire, US-Houtis, US-Russia, US-WHO, Davos 2025 (all the sessions)
Africa
(Alex Vines OBE – Chatham House)
This year, Africa will be the second-fastest-growing region globally. The African Development Bank projects an annual economic growth rate of 4.3 per cent, up from 3.7 per cent last year, with East Africa once again projected to be the most buoyant region. But reducing poverty and fostering job-creating economic growth remain critical priorities because about 464 million people in the region live in extreme poverty. Persistent poverty, scarce economic opportunities, the effects of climate change and weak governance, compounded by rising living costs, are fuelling widespread social frustration. – Africa in 2025: Economic growth despite persistent problems | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
ASEAN
(Amelia Litania, Zahrana Nadifa Ramadhanty – East Asia Forum)
To realise a sustainable future, ASEAN must harmonise its ecolabelling systems, which currently vary by country. A unified approach would simplify certification for producers and address consumer confusion, while boosting ASEAN’s global competitiveness. The creation of an independent regional ecolabelling body could oversee this transition, focusing on key industries such as agriculture and manufacturing. But the challenge in balancing rigorous environmental standards with the practical needs of ASEAN’s diverse economies to ensure widespread adoption remains. – Unifying green standards through ASEAN ecolabelling | East Asia Forum
China
(Edward Black, Sidharth Kaushal – RUSI)
A Chinese simulation admitting to a PLAN destroyer’s defeat by US missiles hints at advanced electronic warfare capabilities while raising questions about PLA transparency and messaging. – The Humble Brag: China’s Recent Wargame and Its Implications | Royal United Services Institute
China – Arctic
(Stephanie Pezard, Irina A. Chindea, Naoko Aoki, Domenique Lumpkin, Yuliya Shokh – RAND Corporation)
How might China’s scientific, information, and commercial activities in the Arctic contribute to the country’s broader security goals by enabling the collection of intelligence, allowing access to critical infrastructure, or providing other types of military advantages? China’s activities in the Arctic have increased, and China’s overall approach to strategic competition, which fuses the public with the private and the civilian sphere with the military, has heightened U.S. concerns that China might be on its way to becoming a security and military actor in the Arctic and that Russia is enabling this pathway. – China’s Economic, Scientific, and Information Activities in the Arctic: Benign Activities or Hidden Agenda? | RAND
Davos and Trump
(Michael Froman – Council on Foreign Relations)
A dispatch from the fifty-forth annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where the focus this year is on the presence of emerging economies—from Brazil to Indonesia—while the political and economic weight of the United States, particularly President Trump’s influence, remained a dominant topic of conversation. – What I Saw in Davos: Middle Powers Rise and Trump’s Shadow Looms | Council on Foreign Relations
(Josh Lipsky, Ananya Kumar – Atlantic Council)
The week in the Swiss mountains began with delegates huddled around small TV screens in hotel lobbies watching US President Donald Trump’s inaugural address and ended with delegates watching Trump address the annual forum on a massive screen inside the Congress Center. The heads of state of more than fifty countries, as well as the CEOs of the world’s largest businesses, gathered at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and nearly everyone struck a note of optimism—and tried to send an olive branch to the new president. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen outlined Europe’s competitiveness strategy and highlighted the number of US jobs created by European companies (approximately four million by her accounting). Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said that China does not seek to run a trade surplus with the world (although no one asked him why, then, his country was running such a large one). BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said it’s possible there will be enormous growth in the United States (but warned about the risk of reigniting inflation). – Dispatch from Davos: The divide is shrinking between Davos and DC – Atlantic Council
Jammu and Kashmir
(Arun Swamy – East Asia Forum)
The 2024 elections marked the first in Jammu and Kashmir since India’s altering of its legal status in 2019. But despite this shift and concerted efforts toward peace, political allegiances appear largely unchanged. Concerns have been raised around the government’s actions that seemed aimed at changing the electorate’s composition, while the majority of the populace still desire the restoration of Article 370, demonstrating that the overall political climate in the region remains unresolved. – Jammu and Kashmir elections reveal enduring political fault lines | East Asia Forum
North Korea
(Bruce W. Bennett – RAND Corporation)
The North Korean regime must be celebrating. After years of bad news on its foreign relations, the regime is finally getting what it presumably perceives as a fair amount of good news. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un can now claim that not only has Russia become a major ally, but also that North Korea is providing military assistance to this major power. And Russia is providing North Korea with resources and military capabilities that Kim clearly wants. Meanwhile, Kim is clearly pleased that his arch enemy, South Korea, is suffering political turmoil. And Kim presumably hopes that he will be able to extract concessions from the new Trump Administration. – Breathing Life into the North Korean Regime | RAND
Panama Canal
(Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations)
Panama has owned and administered the Panama Canal for nearly three decades. President Trump wants to change that to counter growing Chinese influence in Latin America. – Who Controls the Panama Canal? | Council on Foreign Relations
Singapore
(Chang Yee Kwan – East Asia Forum)
The Singapore economy showed resilience in 2024 with around 4 per cent growth, aided by government policy measures like household transfers to offset goods and services tax increases and a package aimed at raising retirement savings for citizens over 50. But Prime Minister Lawrence Wong seems to have a limited disposition for change from prevailing government orthodoxies. As Singapore faces structural issues in the labour market, housing affordability and an increasingly precarious geopolitical context, new approaches are necessary in navigating these emerging challenges. – New leadership, continued orthodoxies in Singapore | East Asia Forum
US
(Chatham House)
Leslie Vinjamuri, Samir Puri and Susan Glasser from The New Yorker join the podcast to discuss Donald Trump’s first decisions as president. – Independent Thinking: What did we learn from Trump’s first days? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Gaza Ceasefire
(Ksenia Svetlova – Chatham House)
On the first day of the Gaza ceasefire deal, as millions of Israelis held their breath waiting anxiously for the release of hostages, intense political calculations were already underway in the prime minister’s office. That very morning, far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir retired from Israel’s governing coalition in protest at the deal. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich warned he could follow suit if the Israeli government proceeds to the deal’s second phase. The situation is the result of an ironic twist that few could have predicted: US President Donald Trump has emerged as a forceful advocate for peace in Gaza. Through his emissary Steve Witkoff, Trump pushed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hard to accept the current deal. – Netanyahu’s phase two dilemma: Political survival vs defying President Trump | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Houtis
(The Soufan Center)
The Trump administration has redesignated the Houthis, also known as Ansarallah, as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO). In the fifteen-month period between the Hamas attacks and the Gaza ceasefire, the Houthis fired more than 200 missiles and 170 drones at Israel. The Houthis are cooperating with states and non-state actors, including Russia, China, Iran, and two al-Qaeda affiliates, al-Shabaab in Somalia and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen. On January 20, the Houthis announced that the group would limit its attacks in the Red Sea corridor exclusively to Israeli-affiliated ships, following the recent announcement of a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. – Trump Administration Relabels Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) – The Soufan Center
US – Russia
(Cheyenne Tretter – RAND Corporation)
Military competition in space between the United States and Russia has intensified. As a result, understanding Russia’s perspectives on the space domain and identifying the key factors that threaten U.S.-Russia crisis stability in space have become increasingly important for devising and implementing crisis management strategies. In this report, the author seeks to better understand Russia’s perspectives on space and crisis stability and explores the issue of escalation in space between the United States and Russia. – Exploring Factors for U.S.-Russia Crisis Stability in Space | RAND
US – WHO
(Jennifer Cole – RUSI)
Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw US funding from the WHO has been described as a ‘global health crisis in the making’ by the British Medical Journal. He began the same process during his previous administration, only to have the decision reversed by Biden once the preferred candidate of the scientific community took power. This time, however, Trump is starting the process with plenty of time to complete it within his term of office. – What Does the US Withdrawal from the WHO Mean for Global Health Security? | Royal United Services Institute
Davos 2025
(Javier Milei, Børge Brende – WEF)
Special Address by Javier Milei, President of Argentina – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Haslinda Amin, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Valdis Dombrovskis – WEF)
While tariffs can help to raise revenue and boost domestic production, they also risk a return to high inflation and retaliatory measures from other countries. Economists debate why tariffs are back on the table and what they could mean for consumers, businesses and governments. – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Miishe Addy, Thani Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, Deemah Al Yahya, Muhammad Aurangzeb, Mounir Nakhla, Theodore Krantz – WEF)
New technologies, from AI to automation, are revolutionizing how trade is taking place, while allowing investment to be more precise and profitable than before. How can we incubate and scale trade, finance and investment innovations to deploy fit-for-purpose solutions in all markets? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Ève Bazaiba Masudi, Ursula von der Leyen, Fatih Birol, Morten Wierod, Dina Ercilia Boluarte, Mirek Dušek, Gurdeep Singh, Lars Rebien Sorensen – WEF)
With the global targets of tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 fast approaching, it is critical to accelerate the implementation, build political momentum and monitor progress. How can countries and industries close this gap and what tools are at their disposal? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Amandeep Singh Gill, Georges-Olivier Reymond, Ana Paula Assis, Azeem Azhar, Paul Alivisatos – WEF)
From drug design to the development of new solar cells, the convergence of AI and quantum computing has the potential to transform industries and has attracted billions of dollars in investment in recent years. How can high-performance computing deliver the high-performance problem solving that it promises? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Arancha Gonzalez Laya, Ilham Kadri, Maros Sefcovic, Patrick Pouyanné, Nikol Pashinyan – WEF)
Many of Europe’s challenges, from access to critical raw materials to protecting its productive industries and ending war on the continent, cannot be overcome without a more strategically integrated foreign economic policy. How can Europe better deploy the power of its single market, the reach of its diplomatic network and the momentum of its green transition to engage more effectively with a world transformed? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Timothy Snyder – WEF)
In a time when journalists and media organizations are facing an onslaught of threats, women’s rights are declining and democracies are fragile, what is the role of freedom and how is it evolving? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Jonathan Ferro, Lynn Martin, Christian Ulbrich, Kathryn Koch, José Luis Escrivá, William Ford – WEF)
Nearly three years after the fastest rate hike cycle in recent memory, monetary policy regimes across the globe are beginning to diverge as central banks balance their fight against inflation with the need to support economic growth. What do leading investors, policy-makers and economists expect from markets in 2025 and beyond? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Rahul Kanwal, Ashwini Vaishnaw, Shobana Kamineni, Sanjiv Bajaj – WEF)
India is the world’s fastest-growing major economy, growing at over 8% in the past year. This growth has been buoyed by a focus on promoting local innovation and start-ups in technology and manufacturing, representing a departure from traditional export-oriented models. How has India capitalized on this new blueprint and to what extent can it continue to drive global growth? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Stefanie Stantcheva, Amitabh Behar – WEF)
Inequality continues to shape economic and social outcomes worldwide, with deep-rooted disparities in access to opportunities and upward mobility. Using cutting-edge data to examine trends and patterns in social mobility, this session offers insights into how policies and innovations can create more equitable societies. – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Dario Amodei, Nicholas Thompson, Mark Rutte, Marc Benioff, Ruth Porat, Dara Khosrowshahi, Albert Bourla – WEF)
Technology breakthroughs offer the potential to revolutionize industries, from personalized medicine and new materials to clean energy and resilient infrastructure. However, these same technologies risk amplifying our greatest vulnerabilities with misinformation, job displacement and privacy erosion. With so much at stake, how do we ensure our focus remains on cultivating wisdom alongside ingenuity to drive solutions rather than create challenges? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Yana Peel – WEF)
Whether it is by making waves in pop culture or cultivating gastronomy that inspires food trends, emerging markets are capitalizing on the revival of the creative economy spurred by digital technologies. Join this conversation with Prime Minister of Thailand Paetongtarn Shinawatra on an exploration of how investing in culture soft power has the social, economic and creative power to boost local growth. – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Allison Schrager, Jon M. Huntsman Jr, Javier Pérez-Tasso, David M. Rubenstein, Paul Chan Mo-po, Challa Sreenivasulu Setty – WEF)
Financial systems have historically helped to support economic growth and advance human development, but in 2022 geopolitical and economic shocks led to a 50% decline in global financial flows. As tensions persist, states are exerting political pressure on finance and exploring the construction of parallel systems. What actions can protect the integrity of the global financial system and ensure that capital markets continue to enable economic growth? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Rachel Morison, Zachary Bogue, Dava Newman, Hiroshi Yamakawa, Andrius Kubilius – WEF)
By 2035, the space economy is set to reach $1.8 trillion up from $630 billion in 2023 and averaging a growth rate of 9% a year. Decreasing launch costs and continuous commercial innovation have transformed space from a frontier of science fiction into a landscape for real-world applications like space tourism. What forces will shape the trajectory of the space economy and how can stakeholders capitalize on this shift? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Andrés Gluski, Dan Murphy, Greg Jackson, Antonio Neri, Uljan Sharka, Anne Bouverot – WEF)
Rapid advances in the technology ecosystem, from AI to spatial technologies, are set to significantly impact the global electricity market, with estimates suggesting that the electricity consumption of AI and other digital technologies could double by 2026 compared to current levels. However, these technologies also offer solutions to reduce consumption and improve efficiency. How can a balance be struck between the rapid adoption of these technologies and the goals of the energy transition? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
