- L’Artico e il Terzo Polo in Asia (The Arctic Institute,
- Le restrizioni talebane sui diritti delle donne aggravano la crisi dell’Afghanistan (Crisis Group). The Taliban have barred women from universities and many workplaces, compelling several aid organisations to pause operations in Afghanistan and donors to contemplate cuts to assistance. Yet the principled response remains to mitigate the harm these harsh rulings are doing to the most vulnerable Afghans. Taliban Restrictions on Women’s Rights Deepen Afghanistan’s Crisis
- Le implicazioni geopolitiche del calo demografico in Cina (The Strategist, Yi Fuxian). In January, China officially acknowledged that its population began to decline last year—roughly nine years earlier than Chinese demographers and the United Nations had projected. The implications of this are hard to overstate. It means that all of China’s economic, foreign and defence policies are based on faulty demographic data. The geopolitical implications of China’s declining population
- Il ministro degli Esteri indiano visita l’Australia in un contesto di approfondimento delle relazioni (ORF, Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan). Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar was in Australia for a brief but significant visit last week. He was in Sydney for the Raisina@Sydney Dialogue, organized by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) and India’s Observer Research Foundation (ORF). This was the minister’s third visit to Australia in the last year, reflecting the growing closeness between the two key strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific. Indian Foreign Minister Visits Australia Amid Deepening Relations
- Spionaggio e interferenze straniere minacciano la sovranità australiana (The Strategist, Gill Savage). Literature and movies heavily feature themes of espionage and foreign interference. They focus on a dangerous, fast-moving world that provides people with an escape from their everyday lives. However, many in our community would not appreciate the extent of espionage and foreign interference occurring in Australia today. Nor would they realise that they have a role in combating it. It’s just what we see in the movies, right? Espionage and foreign interference threaten Australian sovereignty
- Come l’Australia può utilizzare tutti i suoi strumenti di statecraft (The Strategist, Melissa Conley Tyler, Benjamin Day). Australian policymakers have increasingly spoken of the need to use all the tools of statecraft in international engagement. This includes statements by the prime minister, defence minister, foreign ministers (current, former and shadow), minister for development, chief of the defence force and others. How Australia can use all its tools of statecraft
- In visita in Australia, il capo della Marina USA parla delle sfide dei sottomarini e delle esigenze di All Domain (Breaking Defense, Colin Clark). During a visit this week to Australia, the US Navy’s top officer acknowledged that there is some “risk” that America’s submarine industrial base cannot deliver on the navy’s requirements, but expressed his belief that the Pentagon and its industry partners could figure out a way forward with key submarine programs. In Aussie visit, US Navy chief talks sub challenges, All Domain needs
- La base industriale della difesa statunitense non è pronta per un eventuale conflitto con la Cina (CSIS, Seth G. Jones). In a major regional conflict—such as a war with China in the Taiwan Strait—the U.S. use of munitions would likely exceed the current stockpiles of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). The U.S. Industrial Base Is Not Prepared for a Possible Conflict with China
- USA. La Guardia Costiera triplicherà i dispiegamenti nel Pacifico occidentale (Defense One, Lauren C. Williams). The Coast Guard, like its sister military services, is expanding its reach in the Indo-Pacific region. But it’s also working to make data more accessible across the service and boost connectivity for service members at sea. Coast Guard to Triple Western-Pacific Deployments, Policy Chief Says
- Come le città statunitensi stanno trovando modi creativi per finanziare il “climate progress” (Brookings, Caroline George, Joseph W. Kane, and Adie Tomer). Even as the international community coordinates global climate action through the Paris Agreement and the U.S. government makes strides through major bills such as the Inflation Reduction Act, there is plenty that cities must still do on their own to clean up their economies and built environments. One of the most frequent approaches are decarbonization plans, which are often nested within larger climate action plans. Decarbonization plans outline specific steps cities will take to eliminate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from their electricity systems, buildings, transportation networks, and related sectors. How US cities are finding creative ways to fund climate progress
- Un’agenda per il rinnovo della cooperazione di difesa tra Regno Unito e Francia (IFRI, Elie Tenenbaum, Alice Billon-Galland). The Franco-British Summit on March 10th, 2023, will mark a much-needed reset in bilateral cooperation, following years of strained relations. With a recently re-elected French president and a new British Prime minister, both sides are committed to making this summit a success and re-launching a positive agenda for bilateral cooperation. The summit, the first since Sandhurst in 2018, will focus on three key topics: migration, energy, and foreign policy. Defense cooperation will also be addressed, as it remains the cornerstone of the bilateral relationship, though it may take a less prominent part than on previous occasions. Rebooting the Entente: An Agenda for Renewed UK-France Defense Cooperation
- L’UE rischia di perdere la gara per l’influenza in Asia centrale (East Asia Forum, Donaev Mukhammadsodik). The EU and China have become more dynamic players in Central Asia since the United States withdrew from Afghanistan and Russia started losing its geopolitical reputation following its invasion of Ukraine. While Russia’s regional influence is gradually being replaced by China’s presence, the EU should adjust its strategy. Otherwise, the EU’s plans for closer connectivity with Central Asia will exist only on paper. The EU risks losing the contest for influence in Central Asia
- Quanto sono state utili le sanzioni finanziarie dell’UE contro la Russia? (Bruegel). A reflection on the impact of sanctions against Russia, one year since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. How useful have the EU’s financial sanctions on Russia been?
- Le politiche post-terremoto in Siria e in Turchia (Carnegie Europe, Marc Pierini). Ahead of the EU-led donors’ conference, the political ambitions of Syrian and Turkish leaders extend far beyond humanitarian aid. Western governments must tread a fine line between human solidarity and rough politics. Post-Earthquake Politics in Syria and Türkiye
- Israele sta riconsiderando l’invio di armi all’Ucraina (Breaking Defense, Arie Egozi). Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is reevaluating the question of whether to supply weapons to Ukraine, with sources saying pressure from Washington on Jerusalem has increased in recent weeks. Israel reconsidering whether to send weapons to Ukraine
- L’Iraq deve affrontare gli squilibri strutturali dell’economia per fermare la volatilità del dinaro (Atlantic Council, Ahmed Tabaqchali). A planned implementation of global procedural requirements for cross-border payments by the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) in mid-November 2022 had a detrimental effect on the volumes of the CBI’s daily “Foreign Currency Selling Window,” better known as the CBI’s US Dollar (USD) auction. The decreased volumes versus the continued high demand for USD led to a supply-demand mismatch and, consequently, to a depreciation of the market price of the Iraqi Dinar (IQD) versus the USD. As a result, it ignited a firestorm of controversy. Iraq needs to address the economy’s structural imbalances to halt the dinar’s volatility
- Sudan: ampliare gli accordi di Abraham (JCPA, Yechiel M. Leiter). Sudan’s full entry into the Abraham Accords is a powerful symbolic statement of the rejection of Arab rejectionism. It is a fuller and more comprehensive casting of the Khartoum calumny on peace with Israel after the 1967 war to the wastebasket of history. Sudan: Expanding the Tent of the Abraham Accords
- Cosa c’è in gioco nelle elezioni generali in Nigeria? (CFR, Ebenezer Obadare). Voters in Africa’s most populous country and largest economy cast ballots for a new leader in the Feb. 25 Nigerian general elections. What’s at Stake in Nigeria’s General Elections?
- La stabilità nucleare per tutti messa a rischio dal discorso di Putin (Chatham House). Explaining the risks of Russia’s decision to suspend the New START nuclear treaty with the US, and the wider implications for international relations. Nuclear stability for all put at risk by Putin’s speech
- Rifuggendo dai “due pesi e due misure” dell’Occidente, la Georgia è favorevole al ripristino dei voli diretti con la Russia (The Jamestown Foundation, Giorgi Menabde). On February 3, the United States Department of State warned the Georgian government that the resumption of direct flights between Georgia and Russia would lead to the implementation of economic sanctions against the country and those Georgian companies involved in the flights. As the official document underlines: “Many Western countries, including the United States, prohibit Russian aircraft from entering their airspace. … If flights between Russia and Georgia resume, given that companies at Georgian airports may be targeted for sanctions, we would be concerned if they serve aircraft subject to additional import and export controls.” The US government entity concluded, “The entire Western community has distanced itself from this brutal regime—now is not the time to increase engagement with Russia” (Civil.ge, February 3). Eschewing the West’s ‘Double Standards,’ Georgia Favors Restoring Direct Flights With Russia
- Una riflessione su come è cambiato il mondo dopo l’invasione dell’Ucraina, attraverso la lente di dieci numeri rivelatori (Bruegel, Maria Demertzis). A reflection on how the world has changed since the Ukraine invasion, through the lens of ten revealing numbers. One year in ten numbers
- La demolizione della Ferrovia del Nord mina l’economia russa e le ambizioni artiche di Putin (The Jamestown Foundation, Paul Globe). Moscow’s ability to develop its own resource-based economy, expand the Northern Sea Route, cement ties with China and support Vladimir Putin’s ambitions to project power into the Arctic depends on the development of land-based infrastructure in the northern regions of the Russian Federation (see EDM, April 29, 2016; September 11, 2018; December 6, 2018). Scrapping of Northern Railway Undermines Russian Economy and Putin’s Arctic Ambitions
- Mediare la guerra tra Russia e Ucraina: un ruolo rischioso per la Cina (East Asia Forum, Ivan Lidarev). Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, EU leaders, the Ukrainian foreign minister and French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that, as a neutral power close to Moscow, Beijing could mediate between Russia and Ukraine. Chinese President Xi Jinping himself vaguely spoke about a Chinese role in resolving the conflict in March and December 2022. Mediating the Russia–Ukraine war a risky role for China
- Perché la politica russa tende a pensare alla fine del mondo? (The Jamestown Foundation, Vadim Shtepa). In January 2023, Emory University professor Mikhail Epstein published his new book, Russian Anti-World: Politics on the Verge of Apocalypse (Lulu.com, January 26). This is perhaps the most profound philosophical study of the political, cultural and psychological transformations that have taken place in Russia in the year since the start of Moscow’s full-scale war against Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Why Do Russian Politics Tend Toward Notions of the End Of The World?
- Una lotta per la sopravvivenza: come appare la vittoria a Putin (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Tatiana
Stanovaya). Putin’s speech implied that Russia and the West are completely incompatible, so Russia can do nothing but fight to be the last one standing in the battle for survival. A Fight for Survival: What Victory Looks Like to Putin - Come l’industria della difesa ucraina può ridurre l’influenza geopolitica russa (RUSI, Oleksandr V Danylyuk). Russia’s arms sales remain a critical component of its economy. With the West’s help, Ukraine could work to displace Moscow in key markets, thus weakening its global influence. How Ukraine’s Defence Industry Can Reduce Russian Geopolitical Influence
- Come finirà la guerra in Ucraina? (The Strategist, Paul Dibb). On the eve of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s timely to consider how this brutal war might be resolved. The chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, said at a meeting with NATO defence ministers last week, ‘Russia has lost; they’ve lost strategically, operationally and tactically.’ This raises the question of what such a decisive Russian defeat would mean for Europe’s future security order and Russia’s position in it. We also need to examine how negotiations between Russia and Ukraine might result in a truce or even some sort of internationally agreed settlement. How will the war in Ukraine end?
- Un anno di guerra in Ucraina, ripensando a 5 previsioni prebelliche (Breaking Defense). On Feb. 15 2022, as the world watched to see if Russia would invade Ukraine, Mark Cancian of CSIS wrote an article looking at some of the lessons that could be learned from such a conflict. A year later, he has returned to see what assessments came true, and which surprised him. A year into Ukraine, looking back at 5 prewar predictions
- Un anno dopo: quali sono le lezioni dall’Ucraina per il futuro della guerra? (Defense One, Peter W. Singer). Wars are not just contests of weapons and will; they are also laboratories of a sort. Their battles provide lessons that will shape not just what happens next in that particular conflict, but also in all other conflicts to follow. One Year In: What Are The Lessons from Ukraine For The Future Of War?
- Una strategia globale per garantire il futuro dell’Ucraina (Atlantic Council, Julian Lindley-French). It is my honour to share with you the TAG’s latest publication “A Comprehensive Strategy to Secure Ukraine’s Future.” This is Alphen Group’s latest working project, which I have had the honour to lead. The Strategy has been prepared over several months with the support of experts from fifteen democracies, including Australia and Japan. The Alphen Group
Geostrategic magazine – 23 febbraio 2023
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